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Overview of the UK / European program on I&A Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk A ‘selective’ view from Norwich MICE / PRUDENCE / STARDEX ENSEMBLES http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/ MICE Contact Information PRUDENCE Scroll down for Project Summaries: followSTARDEX the links above to Project Web Sites. Hit This •PRUDENCE •STARDEX •MICE Project The three co-operative uses Web projects will information will Sites: provide provide cluster are supported improved from high-resolution of projects climate downscaling by the brings models European climate together tomethodologies explore change Commission European future scenarios for changes expertise under the forconstruction the 2071-2100 inin Framework extreme the fields for of events Europe scenarios of V Thematic climate across using ofmodelling, Europe changes regional Programme inin climate response regional the ”Energy, frequency models. downscaling, to global Environment and PRUDENCE warming. intensity statistics, andproject of Sustainable MICE extreme and project summary impacts events. Development” summary analysis STARDEX to (EESD), explore project 2002-2005. future summary changes in extreme events in response to global warming. LastCounter modified: 16 August 2002 Copyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency. Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002 Comments and suggestions welcome: [email protected] PRUDENCE STARDEX MICE Observed changes in extremes 1958-2000 trend in frost days Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX 1958-2000 trend in frost days Athens February 2004 Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing. Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX 1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Western Europe 1958-2000 trend in hot summer (JJA) days August 2003 Property damage: US$ 13 bn Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France) Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer (JJA) rain events Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX 1958-2000 trend in heavy summer rain events Fatalities: > 100 Economic losses: > US$18 bn Insured losses: > US$3 bn Scale is days and per year. Blue Europe is increasing Central Eastern August 2002 Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX Are extremes well simulated by climate models? 90% precipitation quantile, Autumn (SON) OBS (79-93) HadRM (CTR1) HIRHAM (CTR1) Figure provided by Christoph Frei, ETH and STARDEX/PRUDENCE How are extremes projected to change? JJA changes: 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 GC Column 1: HadAM3. Columns 2-7: six European RCMs Top row: temperature. Bottom row: rainfall DJF, Relative Change, Central Europe Frequency 5-, 10-, 20-year Extremes Mean Intensity 90% Quantile JJA, Relative Change, Central Europe Frequency 5-, 10-, 20-year Extremes Mean Intensity 90% Quantile RAINFALL: Summer Drought Change in the length of the summer drought between 1961-90 and 2070-2100, based on the HadRM3 (A2a) simulation. Over the Mediterranean region of Europe, especially S. Italy and S. Spain, this number is predicted to increase by more than 30 days. Are the predicted future changes consistent with the observed changes in extremes? Christensen & Christensen, Nature, 2003 Change in mean JJA rainfall from 1961-90 to 2071-2100 (%) Change in exceedence of 99th percentile of JJA rainfall from 1961-90 to 2071-2100 Schaer et al., Nature, 2004 Beniston, GRL, 2004 Statistical downscaling – STARDEX http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/ Heavy winter rainfall and links with North Atlantic Oscillation/SLP NAO -R90N PC2 4 3 2 1 0 -11955 1965 1975 1985 1995 -2 -3 CC1: Heavy rainfall (R90N) CC1: mean sea level pressure Malcolm Haylock, UEA/STARDEX NW UK (averages of 15 stations) SE UK(averages of 28 stations) RBF - yellow, MLP – red, SDSM - green Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX RBF (single-site) - blue, RBF - yellow, GA-RBF – red, SDSM - green Alicante Murcia Colin Harpham and Rob Wilby, KCL/STARDEX STARDEX Study Regions The ‘FIC dataset’ Germany: 10 stations Alps: 10 stations UK: 6 stations Greece: 8 stations Iberia: 16 stations Italy: 7 stations Draft methodological criteria for statistical and dynamical downscaling Method provides: Station-scale information Grid-box information European-wide information Daily time series Seasonal indices of extremes Temporally consistent temperature and precipitation Spatially consistent multi-site information Temporally consistent multi-site information Y/N Comments/Notes Method requirements : Relatively high/low Comments/Notes Computing resources Volume of data inputs Availability of input data Draft performance criteria for statistical and dynamical downscaling Relative High Temperature Indices Seasons Regions Precipitation Indices Seasons Regions Overall performance: Mean temperature Temperature extremes Mean precipitation Precipitation extremes Optimal spatial scale: Recommended impact applications: Performance Medium Good/average/poor/NA Good/average/poor/NA Good/average/poor/NA Good/average/poor/NA Confidence Low What are the potential impacts of the projected changes? MICE Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes Work Package 4 – impact modelling • 2 objectives – To select/develop models to predict the impact of changing extremes on activity sectors • • • • • Energy use Insurance losses Forestry (wind throw – N Europe) Forestry (fire – Mediterranean) Agriculture – Assess spatial changes in these impacts Work Package 4 – impact modelling • The impact of changes in climate extremes on Mediterranean Agriculture – GIS-based model of fire risk, Tuscany, Italy. • Environmental Database – – – – – Climate Morphology Land use and vegetation cover Forest fire data Agricultural crops • FWI and CROPSYST • Interpolation strategies were tested A2a-A 4900000 B2a-A 4900000 40 40 35 35 30 4850000 95th percentile values of the FWI for August expressed as the difference between future scenarios (A2a, B2a) and the present scenario (A). 30 4850000 25 25 20 20 4800000 4800000 15 15 10 10 5 4750000 5 4750000 0 0 4700000 4700000 600000 650000 700000 750000 600000 Altitude A2a-A B2a-A 0-600 m 10.6 14.2 600-1000m 17.3 17.2 >1000 m 31.7 10.7 700000 750000 B2a-A A2a-A 4900000 650000 4900000 0.45 0.45 0.4 0.4 0.35 4850000 0.35 4850000 0.3 0.3 0.25 X 100 4800000 0.25 0.2 4800000 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 4750000 4750000 0.05 0.05 0 0 4700000 4700000 600000 650000 700000 750000 600000 650000 Altitude A2a-A B2a-A 0-600 m 23% 20% 600-1000m 30% 17% >1000 m 7% -3% 700000 750000 X 100 Increase in the risk of heat stress during flowering stages expressed as the difference between future scenarios (A2a, B2a) and the present scenario (A) Work Package 5 • 4 mini workshops: – Climate Change and Winter Tourism 04.11.03, Lucerne. 34 participants, discussions about the uncertain future of winter tourism in the Alps – Poznan, impacts on flooding – 25.03.04 – Lund, impacts on forests and high latitude ecosystems – 06.05.04 – Crete, impacts on Mediterranean beach tourism – 05.06.04 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/ MICE Contact Information PRUDENCE Scroll down for Project Summaries: followSTARDEX the links above to Project Web Sites. Hit This •PRUDENCE •STARDEX •MICE Project The three co-operative uses Web projects will information will Sites: provide provide cluster are supported improved from high-resolution of projects climate downscaling by the brings models European climate together tomethodologies explore change Commission European future scenarios for changes expertise under the forconstruction the 2071-2100 inin Framework extreme the fields for of events Europe scenarios of V Thematic climate across using ofmodelling, Europe changes regional Programme inin climate response regional the ”Energy, frequency models. downscaling, to global Environment and PRUDENCE warming. intensity statistics, andproject of Sustainable MICE extreme and project summary impacts events. Development” summary analysis STARDEX to (EESD), explore project 2002-2005. future summary changes in extreme events in response to global warming. LastCounter modified: 16 August 2002 Copyright information: the above photo montage was created in XaraX using copyright pictures from: © Collier County Florida Emergency Management and © Environment Agency. Web Site designed and implemented by Tom Holt, © 2002 Comments and suggestions welcome: [email protected] PRUDENCE STARDEX MICE ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts 35 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI Start date 1 September? (concluding negotiations) Funding from EC of 15 million Euros 72 partners - EU, candidate countries, Switzerland, Australia, US Ten Research Themes Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research 36 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Project Goals Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research 37 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Scientific and Technological Objectives 1-3 Produce probabilistic predictions from seasonal to decadal & longer timescales through the use of ensembles, and use these to explore the related impacts Integrate additional processes in climate models to produce true Earth System models Develop higher resolution climate models to provide more regionally detailed climate predictions and better information on extreme events Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research 38 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Scientific and Technological Objectives 4-6 Reduce uncertainty in climate predictions through increased understanding of climate processes and feedbacks and through evaluation and validation of models and techniques Increased application of climate predictions by a growing and increasingly diverse user community Increased availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change, within the scientific community, and to stakeholders, policymakers and the public Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research 39 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES Research Themes RT Name Co-ordinators 0 Project integration, management and promotion Dave Griggs 1 Development of the Ensemble Prediction System James Murphy, Tim Palmer 2A Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) 2B Guy Brasseur, Jean-François Royer Production of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob Assessments (Model Engine Part 2) 3 4 Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Jens Christensen, Model Ensembles for Europe Markku Rummukainen Understanding the processes governing climate Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events 5 Independent comprehensive evaluation of the Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses 6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Andy Morse, Colin Prentice 7 Scenarios and Policy Implications Richard Tol, Roberto Roson 8 Dissemination, Education, and Training Martin Beniston, 40 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Christos Giannakopolous Hadley Centre