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KAL’s cartoon of the week ETHICS VISION Environmental Stewardship CLIMATE RISK TRUST © [email protected] At the same time: business leadership required Early, bold and comprehensive action to climate change is absolutely necessary. Businesses must take action to reduce their carbon footprint and to develop innovative solutions. I particularly encourage business involvement in leadership initiatives, such as UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon July 2007 Caring for Climate © [email protected] Caring for Climate the business leadership platform on climate change 353 signatories 237 large companies 116 SMEs Number of signatories by sectors Utilities Travel & Leisure Middle East 3% Africa 4% Americas 13% Telecommunications Technology Retail Real Estate Personal & Household Goods Oil & Gas Media Industrial Goods & Services Asia 25% Health Care Food & Beverage Europe 54% Australasia 1% Financial Services Construction & Materials Chemicals Basic Resources Automobiles & Parts 0 20 © 40 60 80 100 [email protected] Caring for Climate the business leadership platform on climate change A voluntary commitment for performance Measure CO2 and GHGs emissions Develop a coherent climate and energy strategy Increase energy efficiency and reduce the carbon burden Set voluntary improvement targets Empower employees throughout the organisation Communicate annually and publically on progress © [email protected] Caring for Climate the business leadership platform on climate change A voluntary commitment for outreach Be a champion for rapid, extensive action on climate risks Cooperate with others in the sector and value chain Help shaping public attitudes for energy conservation Inspire policies that disseminate and amplify innovations Support policy makers for a good outcome of climate negotiations © [email protected] The innovation wedge Decoupling economic growth from carbon combustion needs massive, multiple innovations 450 Energy efficiency 350 now 2050 Zero carbon energy Carbon capture Cooperation and burden sharing © [email protected] Blue IEA scenarios to halve CO2 from energy Business As Usual 62 Gt Blue target 28/2 = 14 Gt © [email protected] Low hanging fruits & demanding technologies Technology optimism The first 15 Gt CO2 have a positive return The last 15 Gt CO2 cost 50 to 800 $/tonne © [email protected] 45 trillion $ for 40 years of energy innovation Supply side Carbon capture & storage power plants Coal gasification and ultra-supercritical Demand side Energy efficiency in buildings, appliances, mobility systems and industrial motors Nuclear renaissance Heat pumps On- & Offshore wind power Solar space and water heating Biomass gasification and cogeneration Carbon capture in industry Non-food bio fuels Expand low-carbon mobility systems High efficiency photovoltaic systems Battery powered plug-in vehicles, Solar power concentration Smart grids and meters © [email protected] Cost of carbon emissions – direct / indirect Marginal cost CO2 € / ton … … A function of the severity of the CO2 cap and technological options 240 160 80 €O2 Purchased electricity and fuels Scope 3 emissions Direct emissions Logistics, employees, product use, etc. © [email protected] Towards 2050 80% 20% 20% © [email protected] KAL’s cartoon of the week © [email protected] Safe levels and risky levels… too soon! Current rate of CO2 emissions guarantee the overshoot of safe limits CO2 ppm 2050 560 380 280 450 350 2005 At 450 ppm CO2 there is a 50% risk to exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This is a threshold to dangerous climate change. 1850 In 2005 the temperature increase over pre-industrial levels was 0.57 to 0.95 °C. The climate is already changing. Leading climate scientists demand a drastic cut of emissions to return to the safety zone below 350 ppm CO2 © [email protected] 3 very large + 12 large emitters for 75% of CO2 36 800 000 000 tonnes CO2/year Estimate 2005, UC Berkeley/CITRIS CO2 Iran 70 Australia 20 South Africa 47 South Korea 128 Mexico 107 Malaysia 25 Canada 32 India 1 104 Japan 128 Brazil 184 Russia 143 Indonesia 222 Europe 27 50% World’s CO2 China 472 USA 1 315 298 Rest of the World 2 170 million © [email protected] A shared but debated responsibility … 36 800 000 000 tonnes CO2/year Estimate 2005, UC Berkeley/CITRIS CO2 But responsibilities and capabilities are key political issues that complicate an intergovernmental agreement on preventing climate risks. It does not matter to our ecosystems whose CO2 is harming them. Collectively we drive climate change by adding 2 ppm of CO2 each year and accelerating! © [email protected] From excess to balance 36 800 000 000 tonnes CO2/year Reduce to 50% of current emissions Estimate 2005, UC Berkeley/CITRIS + CO2 + - + + + - - - + All other energy needs must be supplied by renewable or zero-carbon technologies We must turn forests into positive carbon sinks Each nation needs to ensure its socio-economic development goals We cannot draw more fossil carbon than the soil and ocean can reabsorb (naturally and forced by technology) © [email protected] Dec 7 – 19, 2009 2050 Targets and interim milestones €O2 Inclusive engagement Significant funding for emerging economies Credible multilateral governance structure © [email protected] Negotiate a combination of complex agreements Agree an infringement cost that stimulates compliance Ensure appropriate Measuring Reporting Verification ??? ppm + CO2 Agree to a global stabilisation level of CO2/GHGs and a time frame (IPCC recommendations) Enable markets to operate for lowest cost mitigation in + joint implementation, + cooperation in technology and clean development, + sectoral initiatives, + etc. Agree to differentiated (+/-) national targets in line with capabilities and development needs Share adequately adaptation finance Finance and foster technology innovation © [email protected]