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Resilient Tourism Preparing for extreme weather and climate change in the South West South West Adaptation Response Climate SouthWest focuses on climate change impacts and adaptation. Its mission is: To help the South West of England to adapt sustainably to the impacts of climate change • Regional partnership funded by a range of public and private organisations Climate SouthWest Funders suports Climate SouthWest’s Tourism Sector Group. New business members welcome! Presentation Outline 1. The Science of Climate Change: a brief overview 2. Extreme Weather: the SW is already vulnerable 3. Future Climate Change: what can the SW expect? 4. Tourism in the SW: why climate change matters 5. Preparing for Climate Change: the business case 6. Taking Action: how can businesses adapt? 7. Conclusion and resources to support businesses The Science of Climate Change: a brief overview Weather and Climate Climate = the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period Weather = what it is doing outside right now Observed changes in the SW • Between 1961 and 2006… • Ave. summer temp. increased by 1.41 °C • Max. summer temp. increased by 1.65 °C • Summer precipitation decreased by 8.8% • Winter precipitation increased by 15.9% • Autumn precipitation increased by 28.6% • Sea Level in Newlyn has risen 20 cm since 1920 • 9 out of the past 10 years have now brought serious flooding to the UK • Globally, the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997 Global Temperature Increase Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (2010) The greenhouse effect Natural factors cannot explain recent warming Recent warming can be simulated when manmade factors are included: Some change is inevitable Global Mean Temperature Rise 6 IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low 5 We are locked into some change because of past emissions World Stabilisation Scenario Temperature Rise oC 4 Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% 3 2 Start to diverge from 2030-40 1 0 1991 2011 Temp rise is difference from 1750 2031 2051 2071 2091 Year 2111 2131 2151 2171 2191 Mitigation • reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) © Environment Agency Adaptation • preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change Extreme Weather: The South West is vulnerable to the existing climate 2004 flash flooding - Boscastle • Intense rainfall and topography = rapid rising of river levels • 7 Helicopters airlifted 100 people • 29 out of the 31 Cornwall County Fire Brigade Stations were involved • Infrastructure damage = up to £2 million • Tourist centre out of action Photo by Pam Durrant 2007 floods Gloucestershire • 1 000s homeless • 350 000 without water for up to 17 days • 42 000 without power for 42 hours Slad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath) http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire • 10 000 people trapped on M5 and railways • £14.3M - emergency repair and response costs for Gloucestershire businesses •Businesses out of action for months!! (Pitt Review, 2008) http://news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07 2008 tidal flooding - Poole © Environment Agency 2003 Heatwave – Bournemouth & Poole • High temperatures (31+°C) attract record numbers of visitors • Accommodation full • 20% more traffic than usual • Pollution more than double Gov. Health Limit • 700 parking tickets issued over weekend • Emergency vehicles access blocked © Bournemouth Tourism The temperatures during the 2003 heatwave are likely to become normal in summer by the 2040s 2006 Heatwave - Somerset • Transport disruption: - Higher visitor numbers = increased traffic -Tarmac melted • Incr. in tourism between 14th & 21st July - 7161 compared with 3527 in 2005 • Visitor discomfort © Somerset Tourism • Bouncy castle out of action because rubber was burning people • Risks to health – “Heat wave leads to ozone pollution in district” (South Somerset District Council, 4 July 2006) – Increase in elderly patients admitted to A&E Weston General Hospital for dehydration Future Climate Change: What can the SW expect? Warmer summers Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security Map showing average summer temperature change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC South-West England central estimate Medium emissions By the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be cooler than +2.1ºC or hotter than +6.4ºC 21 Drier summers (on average!) Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Potential benefits for tourism Subsidence Serious water stress Map showing average summer precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s South West England central estimate Medium emissions Decreased crop yields By the 2080s the change is very unlikely to drier than -49% or wetter than +6% 22 Wetter, milder winters Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Map showing average winter precipitation change, medium emissions scenario, 2080s Risks of national Infrastructure South West central estimate Medium Emissions By the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be drier than +6% or wetter than +54% 23 Rising sea levels 2020 Impacts: Weston-super-Mare: 12 cm Newlyn: 13 cm Poole: 12 cm Increased coastal flooding Reduction in size of some beaches Changes to biodiversity 2050 Weston-super-Mare: 26 cm Newlyn: 29 cm Poole: 26 cm Figures shown are at the 50% probability level, high emissions © Environment Agency Increased erosion e.g. to coastal footpaths Note. Global average sea level rise: 1961-2003 = 1.8mm/year; 1993-2003 = 3.1mm/year (IPCC, 2007) More frequent and intense weather events i.e. Floods, Droughts and Heatwaves Impacts Damage to properties Disruption to deliveries © Environment Agency Delays to visitors © Environment Agency Health risks for staff and visitors Drought impact on green outdoor spaces © Environment Agency © Environment Agency A Changing Climate By the 2040s, the South West can expect: • Hotter, drier summers: – 2.3oC warmer (2003 heatwave = 2.3 above ave.) – 13% drier • Wetter, warmer winters: – 14% wetter • Sea level rise: – Up to 20cm • More extreme events: – flash flooding – droughts – heat waves Tourism in the SW: Why climate change matters The value of tourism in the SW • Resident population of 5.2 million • 21.2 million staying and 96.8 million day visitors in 2008 • £9 billion to the economy annually (08) – approx 8% of GVA • Supports approx 300,000 jobs Weather is a key factor for tourism • 55% of respondents to SW Visitors Survey (2009) in Poole stated their choice of destination was influenced by the weather • Extreme weather events can affect visitor numbers - Occupancy levels in Bournemouth incr. in 2003 (Heatwave year) - Occupancy levels in Gloucestershire decr. in 2007 (Flood year) (see SW Tourism UKCP09 Case Study, 2010) • Lack of certainty re: the weather can be a reason for people not to visit the SW - “Whatever money I have nowadays I put towards a holiday with guaranteed sunshine rather than risk it on holidays in England” (Quote from Non-Visitor Study April 2009) Climate risks for tourism • 20% of community feel their area already receives more visitors than it can cope with • Increased insurance costs •Staff and visitor health and safety © Environment Agency • Increased pressure on the environment • Flooding • Increased pressure on transport infrastructure • Coastal locations threatened by sea level rise and increased erosion • Damage to historic buildings and other heritage sites/visitor attractions Climate opportunities for tourism • Potentially longer season • Job creation • Diversification • Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods • Reduced winter heating costs • New market opportunities for certain products and services Preparing for Climate Change: The Business Case Attitudes to preparing for climate change (SW Tourism Business Survey 2010) • 65% believe climate change could lead to increased extreme weather • 59% think businesses need to adapt • Those who had already been affected were more likely to see preparing for a change a medium to high priority than those who hadn’t • 47% see preparing for change as a low priority or not a priority at all Attitudes – Quotes from businesses (SW Tourism Business Survey 2010) Some are aware of the issues: • Our particular business is small and whatever will affect it, as far as climate change is concerned, will affect us too, so we are gradually making changes, as we need them ourselves. Others do not see a challenge, or do not believe they will be affected: • Bring on global warming and let's have some hot summers! Rev those engines and let’s get cooking! • I have read leaflets etc and aware of consequences but think at the moment there is little for me to do e.g. unless there’s a landslide flooding no problem as I live on a hill Others recognise the issues, but see preparing as a low priority: • One day it will get more attention from me...lack the time at the moment, though I'm sure a catastrophe would focus the mind! The Business Case: Weather 100 86 78 80 60 39 40 35 20 13 8 7 6 Drought Heatwave 3 0 Heavy rainfall Snow and High winds ice conditions Flooding Storm surges Coastal erosion Sea level rise SW Tourism Business Survey 2010 56% have been affected by extreme weather events in the past The Business Case: Insurance In the SW, a 2°C rise could increase annual insured flood losses by 19% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 16%. A 4°C rise could increase losses by 29% - leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 27%. ‘The Financial Risks of Climate Change’ (ABI, 2009) Key messages for businesses: Climate adaptation is likely to become part of insurance criteria Well prepared businesses could save money on premiums Unprepared businesses may not secure insurance cover The Business Case: Reputation • Growing awareness – 69% cite flooding as one of the most common effects of climate change – Businesses need to show they care and are ahead of the game © Environment Agency • Responsible business - © Environment Agency Reputation as employer Reputation to customers People care The Business Case • Avoiding unexpected costs: – – – – Business interruption Damage costs Increased insurance premiums Future regulation, litigation or liabilities • Exploiting opportunities: – Expanding / new markets due to changing customer demands – Reputation, being a market leader Taking Action: How can businesses adapt? Adaptation = Risk Management © Environment Agency © Environment Agency Changes to climate Weather events Impacts Consequences Adaptation requires knowledge of your: vulnerability resilience Preparing for change - Top Tips 6. Plan ahead 7. Check your insurance 8. Practical actions © Environment Agency 1. Identify the effects to your business 9. Raise awareness 10. Review Health & Safety procedures 2. Check your flood risk 3. Get help and advice 4. Learn from others 5. Reduce risk © Mark Christopher Visitor Communications • Tell your customers about what you are doing to keep them safe • Opportunities – potentially hotter drier summers may encourage more ‘stay-cations’ © Bournemouth Tourism • Think about, and communicate what your visitors may need e.g. sun protection Flood Case Study: Old Mill Hotel, Bath • Temporary flood boards • ‘Tanked’ the underneath of the restaurant – i.e. sealed it • Management training © Old Mill Hotel • The laundry store was moved from the basement • Close contact is kept with the Environment Agency to monitor the risk • Catering facilities and staff are prepared - able to move a second kitchen and function room upstairs Drought Case Study: High Post Golf Club, Wiltshire “Plan for future climate change and don’t be frightened to bang the drum and get some publicity for being proactive – it’s usually free marketing!” Peter Hickling, High Post manager • Drought-resistant grasses © High Post Golf Club • Water allocation process uses less water • Likelihood of disease reduced – less fungicide needed • Increased reputation – recognised as ‘on course for sustainability’ • Member support gained through open forum Case Study: The Scarlet, Mawgan Porth © The Scarlet • ‘Sea Thrift’ green roof: • Helps keep the building cool in summer, warm in winter • Supports biodiversity in insects and butterflies • Water efficiency measures: • Grey water (recycled from bedroom sinks & baths) used to flush toilets • Natural swimming pool uses rainwater and requires no chlorination • Rainwater is used for landscaping and to top up the natural pool • Green landscaping & soakaway - reduces run-off, decreasing flood-risk & has a cooling effect Case Study: Glastonbury Festival “We were very lucky that we didn't have people drown when we had six foot of water in our campsite. So you have to learn from this and you have to adapt, otherwise your business may not survive.” Robert Kearle, Environmental Manager, Following severe floods in 2005 steps to increase resilience were taken, including: • Drainage systems improved • Festival tents are tied down in case of windy weather • Welfare officers to look after people in the event of flooding, high temperatures or storms Case study: Slapton Line Partnership Coastal erosion means that the coastal road can only be maintained for a maximum of 30 -50 years Adaptation measures include: • Signage for alternative routes • Contingency plan for road closures • Emphasising attraction of nature reserve • Business Forum to discuss challenges and opportunities Conclusion and resources to support businesses Conclusions • Preparing for extreme weather is a ‘now’ issue • We need to plan for current and future vulnerability • Planning proactively will be more cost effective than reacting • Opportunities and benefits for those who are resilient and able to adapt © Environment Agency • A business risk like any other and should be managed accordingly Preparing for Change: climate-proof your tourism business www.climateprepared.com “Changing Climate – Changing Business” DVD A short film featuring 11 tourism businesses in the SW who are taking action to adapt to climate change A full 20 minute version and a 6 minute summary version available at: http://www.swtourismalliance.org.uk/our-strategic-work/sustainabilitywork/adapting-to-a-changing-climate/ Other resources • Caravan and campsite flood risk management pack • Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool • ‘Changing Climate Changing Business’ DVD • Online toolkit for tourism businesses www.climateprepared.com • Case Studies www.oursouthwest.com/climate/casestudies Preparing for flooding www.environment-agency.gov.uk More information and links to the tools and full case studies shown are available at www.oursouthwest.com/climate Contact Climate SouthWest on tel: 01392 352230 or e: [email protected]