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Global Warming and Energy Conservation Kyoto Protocol: Stimulus for New Technologies Surface Conditions 10/28/02-cc7 Carbon Dioxide Concentrations The Smoking Gun Surface Air Temperature Anomaly Global Mean The Atmosphere CCS-2 The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 years CCS-3 Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the industrial era CCS-4 Surface Conditions Projected surface temperatures for the 21st century would be unheralded in the last 1000 years CCS-5 CO2 Emissions 10/28/02-cc5 CO2 Emissions 10/28/02-cc6 Surface Conditions Land areas warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes 10/28/02-cc9 Surface Conditions Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier 10/28/02-cc10 Surface Conditions Crop yields are projected to decrease throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudes Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO2 are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice. Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 10/28/02-cc11 Surface Conditions Run-off is projected to increase in some areas but decrease in others, especially in the sub-tropics 10/28/02-cc12 GL N.A EU C.A CCS-13 WHAT DO MODELS SAY ABOUT HUMAN-CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING A Doubling of CO2 Will Produce a Warming Between 1.5 - 4.5 Degrees C (2.7 - 8.1 degrees F) The Observed Global Warming is Generally Consistent With Model Calculations The CO2/Climate Dilemma Over the Next Century: Exceeding 2 x CO2 is Almost Guaranteed Significant Climate Change is Inevitable Energy Demand Growth is Very Large Current “Non CO2” Energy is Insufficient Potential Impacts of Climate Change Agricultural Productivity Forest Resources Increased Wet-Area Flooding Increased Dry-Area Droughts Water Resources Unmanaged Ecosystems . . . ALL POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAIN POORLY QUANTIFIED Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in U.S. CO2 11% 3% 2% 3% CH4 N20 81% HFCs, PFCs and SF6 Others 6 5 United Nations Environmental Program UNEP / EPA (1994) Scenario for HFCs IPCC (IS92a) Scenario for all other gases 4 Climate Forcing (Since year 1765) 3 Carbon Dioxide 2 Nitrous Oxide 1 0 CFCs & HCFCs 1990 2010 Methane HFCs 2030 Year 2050 Global Warming Potential (GWP) 12000 GWP (CO2 = 1.0) 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC410A HFC407C HFC-245fa Climate Change Science CCS-9 Kyoto Protocol Sets Greenhouse Gas Emissions Limits Signed December 1997 Agreement reached by 181 Countries Annex I and Non-Annex I Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions: 20.0 BAU 18.0 16.0 14.0 Annex I Emissions = Non-Annex I Emissions in 2035 PgC/yr 12.0 10.0 8.0 Non-Annex I (Developing Countries) 6.0 4.0 2.0 0 Annex I(Developed Countries) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Kyoto Protocol Controls EMISSIONS (no phase out) of greenhouse gases CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs-PFCs-SF6 No Developing Country controls required Basket of gases – each country/region determine own response CCI-2 Global Climate Change Berlin Mandate Science Assessment – – – – “discernible human influence on global climate” Increase of 2oC from 1990 - 2100 Sea Level rise by 50 cm 1990 - 2100 Stabilization at 2x pre-industrial levels requires 50% reduction Technical and Economic Assessment – Reductions are technically possible – Reductions are economically feasible – “No-Regrets” opportunities are available Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse Gas Coverage Six (6) Gases – – – – – – Carbon Dioxide -- CO2 Methane -- CH4 Nitrous Oxide -- N2O Hydrofluorocarbons -- HFCs Perfluorocarbons -- PFCs Sulfur hexafluoride -- SF6 Base Period – 1990 for CO2 , CH4 , and N2O – 1990 or 1995 for HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 Kyoto Protocol -Developed Countries Targets & Timetables – 34 Countries – Differentiated Targets – 5.2 Percent Avg. reduction (versus 1990) – 6 Greenhouse gases – Commitment period 2008 - 2012 Kyoto Protocol -Country Targets Country Australia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia European Community Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland % of base 108x 92 92 92 94 92x 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 94 110 Country Italy Japan Lithuania Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine United Kingdom United States % of base 92 94 92 92 100 101 94 92 92 100 92 92 92 100 92 93)x Kyoto Protocol Policies and Measures Enhancement of energy efficiency Increase use of new and renewable forms of energy Phase out market imperfections Limit or reduce emissions of greenhouse gases Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanisms Emission reduction credits for projects between all parties Sharing Technologies Exporting Technologies Kyoto Protocol Emissions Trading Developed Countries Details at COP - 10 Kyoto Protocol Ratification – February 16, 2005 – 55 countries ratify (112 ratified) – 55% of Developed Country Emissions Second Commitment Period DENMARK HFC PHASEOUT LAW GENERAL HFC BAN - 2006 COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR CONDITIONING PLANTS HFC BAN FOR SYSTEMS WITH 10kg OR HIGHER - 2007 EXEMPT FROM BAN – COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR CONDITIONING PLANTS WITH 0.15 - 10kg. – COOLING SYSTEMS FOR PROCESS HEAT RECOVERY WITH CHARGE LESS THAN 50kg. AUSTRIA HFC PHASEOUT LAW APPLIANCE HFC BAN - 2008 AIR CONDITIONING AND MOBILE REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 2008 SWITZERLAND HFC PHASEOUT LAW DOMESTIC REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 2003 AIR CONDITIONERS HFC BAN - 2005 MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING HFC BAN - 2008 EUROPEAN UNION DRAFT HFC REGULATION CONTAINMENT OF HFCs – – – – PREVENT AND MINIMIZE LEAKAGE MANDATORY INSPECTIONS LEAKAGE DETECTION SYSTEMS MAINTENANCE OF RECORDS RECOVERY OF HFCs TRAINING AND CERTIFICATION AUTOMOBILE HFC-134a BAN – No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in 2012 – Prohibit sale of vehicles with HFCs greater than 150 in 2018 ODP versus GWP CFC-11 12 113 114 115 HCFC-22 123 124 141b 142b HFC-32 125 134a 143a 152a 227ea 236fa 245fa 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 ODP (relative to R-11) 0.0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 GWP (relative to CO2) J. M. Calm and G. C. Hourahan, “Refrigerant Data Summary,” Engineered Systems, 18(11):74-88, November 2001 (based on 1998 WMO and 2001 IPCC assessments) © JMC 2001 Arthur D. Little This report was prepared by Arthur D. Little, Inc. for the account of the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy. The material in it reflects Arthur D. Little’s best judg ment in light of information available to it at the time of preparation. Any use which a third party makes of this report, or any reliance on or decisions to be based on it, are the responsibility of such third parties. Arthur D. Little accepts no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decision s made or actions taken based on this report Global Comparative Analysis of HFC Technologies for Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Foam, Solvent, Aerosol Propellant, and Fire Protection Applications Final Report to the Alliance for Responsible Atmos pheric Policy March 21, 2002 Prepared by: John Dieckmann Arthur D. Little, Inc. Total Equivalent Warming Impacts (TEWI) 300 Ton Chillers And Cooling Towers At Two Cost Levels Comparative Warming (%) 150 Direct - Refrigerant Indirect - Electric 100 50 0 R-11 R-12 R-123 R-134a R-22 ©JMC - Dec 92 Chiller Efficiency Progress Year 1979 1980 1990 1993 1995 1997 1999 2003 Efficiency - kW/ton Average Good .80 .72 .65 .63 .61 .60 .59 .56 .72 .68 .62 .55 .52 .49 .48 .45 * 1979 - 2003 . . . Over 35% improvement. Ozone Depletion Potential and Global Warming Potential of CFC Alternatives 0.14 0.12 141b ODP 0.10 0.08 0.06 22 0.04 0.02 142b 123 0.00 152a 0 500 32 134a 125 143a 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 GWP (100 year) Refrigerant Options 5.5 5 R-11 R-600 (But) R-123 R-12 R-717 (NH3) R-22 R-32 R-290(Prop R-600a(Isobut) R-134a COP 4.5 Flammable Non-Flammable TE = 5F TC = 86F 4 R-125 3.5 3 R-744(CO2) R-170 (Eth) 2.5 0 200 400 600 800 Condensing Pressure - PSIA 1000 1200 Refrigerants Tested in AREP R-22 Alternatives R-134a R-290 (propane) R-717 (ammonia) R-410a (R-32/125 [50/50]) R-32/134a [20/80] R-32/134a [25/75] R-32/134a [30/70] R-32/134a [40/60] R-32/134a [45/55] R-32/125/134a [10/70/20] R-407c (R-32/125/134a [23/25/52]) R-32/125/134a [24/26/60] R-32/125/134a [25/20/55] R-32/125/134a [30/10/60] R-32/125/290/134a {20/55/5/20] Efficiency for Chillers (COP) 6.8 6.6 COP 6.4 6.2 6 5.8 5.6 5.4 CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC410A HFC407C HFC-245fa Substitute Refrigerants The Refrigerants for air conditioning are: HCFC-22 High Pressure HFC-134A Medium Pressure Replacement for CFC-12 HCFC-123 Low Pressure Replacement for CFC-11 HFC-407c High Pressure Replacement for HCFC-22 HFC-410a High Pressure Replacement for HCFC-22 Equipment The Future Emissions Energy Efficiency Focusing on Emissions and Efficiency is fundamental to doing what’s right. Future Means Thinking Green Designing “best value versus lowest cost” building The green of energy efficiency The green of resource sustainability “Green” Opportunities are Tremendous for: Manufacturers Consulting Engineers Contractors Facility Engineers Summary and Expectations Energy Efficiency will be Strongly Encouraged – Replacement of Inefficient HVAC, Lighting, and other appliances – Life Cycle Cost purchasing will be the preferable process for obtaining energy efficient systems, appliances, buildings, and automobiles