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Fourth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Policy Panel I: Climate Change Policy Some Research Issues June 27, 2001 Larry Williams EPRI Overview • The easy stuff – Climate science – Policy proposals – Basic observations • Open questions – Two studies underway through EMF-Stanford – International policy process in flux – Opportunity to rethink the issue – Introduce imperfections of real world – Uncertainty analysis 4th GEA-Purdue 2 Climate science • The issue is real—won’t be going away • First signs of human-caused climate change have likely occurred • Further change appears inevitable • Time scale is very long term – Not the next election cycle! • Less certain about… – Where (regions of globe) – When (rate of change) – How much (magnitude) 4th GEA-Purdue 3 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • Ultimate goal is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere • Initially called upon Annex I countries to take lead and aim to return emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 • Calls for periodic reviews 4th GEA-Purdue 4 Basic Observations • The Framework Convention deals with concentrations and NOT emissions • Timing matters—a gradual energy transition will be cheaper than an abrupt transition • Stabilization requires participation by the big emitters – Net emissions need to go to ZERO eventually • Solution requires a portfolio of actions – No single magic solution • Problem is real and will NOT go away on it’s own 4th GEA-Purdue 5 Policy Directions…? • Kyoto Protocol as written (US inside) • KyotoEU + Japan + Russia (US outside) • Renew Negotiations – Revisit Kyoto ? – Revisit Rio ? • Individual Nations take actions – Bilateral agreements – Permit trading slowly takes hold – Eventual convergence – Europe as laboratory experiment for GHG control 4th GEA-Purdue 6 Failure to agree at COP6 opens up research possibilities… • Most recent climate policy research organized relative to the Kyoto Protocol • Now is a good time to take broader focus – Rethink global problems related to • Development, air and water pollution (and water scarcity) AND • Climate jointly • Stay tuned—new policies will be surfacing 4th GEA-Purdue 7 Research possibilities… • “International Trade Dimensions of Climate Policy Analysis” – EMF18 (Stanford University) study underway to examine leakage effects and spill-over effects • “Technology Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation” – EMF19 (Stanford University) study examines • Alternative sets of technology assumptions and ways to represent technological progress • Strong impact on cost estimates 4th GEA-Purdue 8 Research possibilities… • Real policy implementations unlikely to be optimal – How much more costly will non-optimal be? • Various forms of command and control • Sector specific caps • Upstream vs. downstream • Various domestic burden sharing schemes – How will lack of harmony between domestic and international policies affect the costs? 4th GEA-Purdue 9 Research possibilities… • More work on uncertainty analysis is needed – What are key uncertainties influencing future emissions • Examine climate issue as risk management – Climate surprises – Action vs. inaction – Sequential policy proposals – Prudent risk management strategy 4th GEA-Purdue 10