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Transcript
climate change impact
CLIMATE CHANGE - HERE
October 30, 2008
1
Reminder..
2





high degree of probability (98%) that human activities have
caused a substantial net warming influence on climate since
1750
global surface air temperature increased from 1850 to 2005
by 0.76ºC.
linear warming trend over the last 50 years is recorded by
0.13ºC per decade
Plus, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves,
a decrease in the frequency and duration of frosts, and an
increase in extreme events frequency and intensity in many
parts of the world.
recent studies found that the Arab region experienced an
uneven increase in surface air temperature ranging from 0.2 to
2.0ºC that occurred from 1970 to 2004
climate change impact, AFED
Tomorrow…
3

For the next 20 years:
A
warming of about 0.2 C
 Even IF the [ ] of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had
been kept constant at 2000 year levels, another
warming of 0.1 C / decade would be expected
climate change impact
GHGs emissions (2000)
4


33 thousand Tg
(teragram)
Arab: 4.2% of total
world emissions
 KSA
 Egypt
 Algeria
North America 37.1
South America 22.9
Africa (non-Arab) 22.8
Central America and
Caribbean 5.4
Arab countries 4.2
Asia (non-Arab) 3.6
Europe 2.2
Oceania 1.7
climate change impact
Impact high…
5




Semi-arid and arid regions are highly vulnerable to
climate change
If temperature gets higher
If precipitation gets lower
 pressure on natural and physical systems would
be intensified
climate change impact
The Arab region will…
6







Face an increase of 2 to 5.5 C in surface
temperature by 2100
Face a decrease in precipitation from 0 to 20%
 shorter winters
 dryer and hotter summers
 higher rate of heat waves
 higher level of weather variability
 more frequent occurrence of extreme weather
events
climate change impact
7
Let’s talk details:
Sea Level Rise
climate change impact
Impact of Sea-Level Rise
8






Important consequence of climate change and a serious global
threat
Rate of sea level rise was observed to be 1.8 mm per year
from 1961-2003, and higher from 1993-2003 (3.1 mm)
Total 20th century rise: 0.17 m
Continued growth of GHG  SLR of 1 to 3 m + very quick
breakup of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets = 5 m
SLR
Nature of impacts of SLR changes from place-to-place and
from country-to-country. Why?
Highest exposure: river deltas. Low-lying coastal urban areas.
Small islands
climate change impact
UN-Habitat's State of the World's Cities
2008/09
9
During the 1900s, sea levels rose by an estimated 17cm; global mean
projections for sea level rise between 1990 and 2080 range from 22cm to
34cm, according to the UN-Habitat researchers.
The report points out that by 2070, urban populations in river delta cities, such
as Dhaka, Kolkata (India), Yangon (Myanmar), and Hai Phong (on the coast
near Hanoi in Vietnam), which already experience a high risk of flooding,
will join the group of populations most exposed to this danger. Port cities in
Bangladesh, China, Thailand, Vietnam, and India will have joined the ranks
of cities whose assets are most at risk.
African coastal cities that could be severely be affected by rising sea levels
include Abidjan (Cote d'Ivoire), Accra (Ghana), Alexandria (Egypt), Algiers
(Algeria), Cape Town (South Africa), Casablanca (Morocco), Dakar
(Senegal), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Djibouti (Djibouti), Durban (South
Africa), Freetown (Sierra Leone), Lagos (Nigeria), Libreville (Gabon), Lome
(Togo), Luanda (Angola), Maputo (Mozambique), Mombasa (Kenya), Port
Louis (Mauritius), and Tunis (Tunisia).
climate change impact
10
climate change impact
Impact of SLR - Egypt
11

A 1 m SLR
6 million people
 12 to 15% of
agricultural land in the
Nile Delta


A 0.5 m SLR
A loss of more than 90%
of the governorates
under risk
 Loss of 65% in industrial
sector
 Loss of 55% in tourism
sector

climate change impact
Impact of SLR
12

Qatar

 13%
land loss with 5
m rise

 5%
in Egypt, Libya,
UAE, and Tunisia with 1
m SLR
 6 to 7 % with 2 m SLR
 10% with 5 m SLR
Egypt
 10%
of pop impacted
with 1 m rise
 20% - 5 m rise

UAE and Tunisia
1
Urban areas also…

High uncertainty
m – 5% of pop
climate change impact
13
Impact on freshwater sources
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14
climate change impact
15
climate change impact
Water and Climate Change
16
(1) The distribution of precipitation in space and time is very uneven,
leading to tremendous temporal variability in water resources If
all the freshwater on the planet were divided equally among the
global population, there would be 5 000 to 6 000 m3 of water
available for everyone, every year.
(2) the rate of evaporation varies a great deal, depending on
temperature and relative humidity, which impact the amount of
water available to replenish groundwater supplies.
The combination of shorter duration but more intense rainfall (meaning
more runoff and less infiltration) combined with increased
evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration
from the earth's land surface to atmosphere.) and increased
irrigation is expected to lead to groundwater depletion.
climate change impact
17
Hydrological cycle
climate change impact
Key changes to the hydrological cycle
18
… associated with an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
and the resulting changes in climate include:
* Changes in the seasonal distribution and amount of precipitation
* An increase in precipitation intensity under most situations
* Changes in the balance between snow and rain
* Increased evapotranspiration and a reduction in soil moisture
* Changes in vegetation cover resulting from changes in temperature and
precipitation
* Consequent changes in management of land resources
* Accelerated melting glacial ice
* Increases in fire risk in many areas
* Increased coastal inundation and wetland loss from sea level rise
* Effects of CO2 on plant physiology, leading to reduced transpiration and
increased water use efficiency
climate change impact
Status of freshwater here
19


Reminder: most of the Arab countries are located in
arid and semi-arid regions; low and limited water
resources + high evaporation
Total water resources = total renewable ground
water + internal surface water resources + external
surface water resources
climate change impact
Water resources here
20

Iraq, Sudan and Egypt
 Highest
annual water resources ( > 50 billion m3/yr)
 More than 50% of their surface resources are external

Algeria, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia,
Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen
 Between

5 to 30 billion m3/yr
Rest
<
5 billion m3/year
climate change impact
rainfall
21







Varied
Lebanon and Syria: average 600 and 300 mm/yr
Move N and E to Morocco and Tunisia – decreases
to 300 mm/yr
North Africa and Arab Peninsula – 130 mm/yr
Rest – average – 290 mm/yr
Kuwait: poorest water resources
Egypt – second lowest
climate change impact
?
22



How will sea-level rise impact freshwater?
How will CC conditions impact watersheds?
Due to CC and population, FAO projects that Algeria,
Egypt, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia – severe water
shortages by 2050
Water demand increasing
Water supply decreasing
Plus problems of accessibility of water
climate change impact
First order impacts…
23

Mediterranean hydrological systems
 Wetter
winters
 Dryer and hotter summers
 Increase in evaporation from water bodies…
 Increase Evapotranspiration from crops

Egypt
 Increase
the potential irrigation demand by 6 to 16%
by 2100
climate change impact
24
Drought
climate change impact
Impact of increasing drought
25




One of the serious water related disasters threatening
the Arab region for both current and future time scales
What is drought?
“a temporary reduction in water or moisture availability
significantly below the normal or expected amount for
specified period” (climatic viewpoint)
“a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently
prolonged for the lack of precipitation to cause a
serious hydrological imbalance, carrying connotation for
moisture deficiency with respect to [hu]man’s usage of
water” (hydrological viewpoint)
climate change impact
Droughts…
26


Impact rain-fed agricultural production
Impact water supply for domestic, industrial, and
agricultural purposes
climate change impact
Drought frequency
27

Increased during the last 20 to 40 years in
Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Syria
the 22 drought years in the 20th century, 10
occurred in the last 20 years, and three were successive
(1999, 2000, 2001) in Morocco
 Recent droughts in Jordan and Syria worst ever
recorded
 Of

Varying conditions of water shortage in Lebanon in
the last 10 years
climate change impact
28
But not just droughts
climate change impact
Warmer climate
29



Increase risk of both droughts AND floods
Drought affected areas will (probably) increase
Extreme precipitation events likely to increase in
frequency and intensity  more flood risk
climate change impact
Yemen: drought
30




SANAA, 2 September 2008 (IRIN) - Hundreds of families
(totalling about 2,000 people) in the southern governorate
of Abyan have begun to leave their homes due to severe
drought in their mountain villages
Sirar villages are arid, barren and mountainous. Any rain
that does fall quickly runs off down the steep valley sides,
as there are no dams in the area to harvest rainwater.
people had installed small concrete tanks on their houses to
harvest rainwater, but these had remained dry because of
the lack of rain
The drought has caused damage to the livestock, beehives
and farms on which local people are heavily dependent for
their livelihoods.
climate change impact
Yemen
31
Yemen Times: “The climate changes during the last few years and especially
this year is a real concern for Yemen, particularly if the frequency of
precipitation events diminish, putting rainfall and agriculture in peril and
lead to a catastrophic drought,” said Anwar Abdulaziz, head of the
Climate Change Unit in the General Authority of Environment Preservation.
"Every year the rain season starts at the beginning of March, and now
Yemen is in the end of April and there is still no rain. This means that Yemen
is truly affected by the climate changes," said Abdulaziz.
Though his agency has yet to complete studies on exact drought percentage
increase, he is sure that this year and the next year will be difficult for
Yemen because of the lack of rain. According to the National Council for
the Climate, there has been an increase in average temperatures in Sana’a
over the last 20 years, though they do not have the exact percentage due
to a lack of research. The expectation is that cities like Sana’a and Ibb will
face cloudless skies and will cause more temperature rises, adds Abdulaziz.
climate change impact
32
Yemen: recent floods (October 2008)
Dubbed the 'Manhatten of the desert', Shibam's 2,000-year-old mud-brick
buildings are in danger of collapsing after recent floods
climate change impact
Human health
33
Sea-level rise will affect groundwater aquifers in coastal areas and flood lowlying areas, reducing freshwater availability. It is estimated that by 2030
the risk of diarrhoea will be up to 10 percent higher in some countries due
to climate change.
Greater migration as a result of water stress or increased food insecurity
means that diseases will be transported to other regions, where they may
or may not be able to survive, potentially exposing host communities to new
diseases. "Policies at various levels and their implementation, however, do
not reflect this principle," the authors noted.
"Improved access to clean water can reduce diarrhoea and waterborne
diseases by at least 25 percent; improved sanitation is accompanied by
more than a 30 percent reduction in child mortality. This urgent global
challenge is pragmatically achievable, politically feasible and ethically
important." (IPCC)
climate change impact
Global events

1998
Hurricane
Mitch dropped 6 feet of rain in Central America
Increased incidence of malaria, dengue, cholera &
leptospirosis (infectious bacterial disease)

1999
Cyclone
Orissa caused 10,000 death & 10-15 million affected
Flood in Caracas, Venezuela killing 30,000 people

2000
Rain
and hurricane inundated Mozambique, causing malaria
incidence to increase 5 folds

2003
Summer
heat wave in Europe killing thousands of people
(27,000 more death in corresponding period the previous year,
massive forest fires and melting 10% of the Alps ice.
Recent Climate-Related Extreme
Events 2005
Unprecedented blistering summer heat



More than 200 cities with new record for high temperature

Sustained temperature of >38oC for 39 consecutive days,
including a week above 43oC in Phoenix, Arizona
Hurricane Katrina, Rita and Wilma
Climate change and health: pathway from driving
forces, through exposures to potential health impact.
Modulating
influences
Adaptive
capacity
 Regional
weather
changes
Population
dynamics
Unsustainable
economic
development
 Heatwaves
Mitigation
measures
 Extreme
Greenhouse
gases (GHG)
emissions
Temperature-related
illness and death
Extreme weatherrelated health effects
Mitigative
capacity
Driving
forces
Health effects
CLIMATE
CHANGE
weather
 Temperature
 Precipitation
Natural
causes
Microbial
contamination
pathways
Air pollution-related
health effects
Transmission
dynamics
Water and food-borne
diseases
Agroecosystems,
hydrology
Socioeconomics,
demographics
Vector-borne and
rodent-borne diseases
Effects of food and
water shortages
Mental, nutritional,
infectious and other
health effects
Health-specific
adaptation
measures
Research
needs
Evaluation of
adaptation
Source: Climate Change and Human Health – Risks and Reponses. Summary (WHO, 2003)
Four main types of transmission cycle for infectious
diseases
Anthroponoses
Direct transmission
Indirect transmission
HUMANS
HUMANS
VECTOR/VEHICLE
VECTOR/VEHICLE
HUMANS
HUMANS
ANIMALS
ANIMALS
Zoonoses
VECTOR/VEHICLE
VECTOR/VEHICLE
ANIMALS
HUMANS
Source: Climate Change and Human Health – Risks and Reponses. Summary (WHO, 2003)
ANIMALS
HUMANS
Biologic response to changes in climate



Global warming and wider fluctuation in weather help
to spread diseases
Temperatures – affect growth, development and
survival of microbes and the vectors
Weather affects the timing and intensity of disease
outbreaks (McMichael et al, 2003)
Biologic response to changes in climate:
Infectious diseases
Warmer environment and mosquitoes


Boost rate of reproduction

Increase the number of blood meal

Prolongs their breeding season

Shorten the maturation period of microbes they carry

Warmer winters – tick-borne lyme disease spreading northward in Sweden, US and
Canada (Epstein, 2005)
Heavy downpours


Drive rodents from burrows: risk of zoonotic diseases

Create mosquito breeding sites

Faster fungal growth in houses

Flush pathogens and chemicals into waterways

Milwaukee’s cryptosporidiosis outbreak in 1993

Katrina’s flood: water-borne pathogens and toxins spread.
Using climate to predict infectious
disease outbreaks




Generally accepted that climate plays a role in infectious
disease transmission
Considerable on-going research activity identifying climateepidemic links
Many research projects have demonstrated temporal link
between climatic factors and variations in disease rates
Some are able to predict epidemics but the tests are very
preliminary and based on limited data
Is climate change a serious threat
to health?

The threat is unquestionable

However, the impact depends on:Where
Your
you live
age
Access
Public

to health care
health infrastructure
Adverse effects will generally occur in
poor populations that have little capacity
to adapt
Early warning system & preparedness
•
•
•
Most of the extreme
climatic changes (e.g. heat
wave, torrential rain,
hurricane) can be predicted
several days in advance
But how prepared are we to
deal with the situation?
National Centre for
Communicable Diseases
(NCCD)