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ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations Antonio Bombelli Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Italy (Project Coordination Office) & Joseph Mutemi IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction Application, Kenya EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavilion Durban, 28 November 2011 EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations European Commission – FP7 3.5 M€ 48 months: 1 Oct 2010 – 30 Sep 2014 Key Words Climate Predictions; Climate Impacts; Vulnerabilities; Adaptation; Case Studies; Agriculture and Water Resources; Socio-economic analysis EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Why ClimAfrica? Africa and Climate Change • key role in the global C-cycle and climate system • 50% of interannual variability of the global C-balance • > 50% of global fire emissions • 1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change Weakness • most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability • population mostly depend on the rain fed rural sector • economy relies mainly on natural resources • less covered region by climate change studies • climate models developed outside the African context • current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with less focus to the shorter time frame EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion direct linkage between climate, food production, economy and livelihood not enough or not adequate climate related info and products for Africa Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Why ClimAfrica? Urgent need for the most Africa and Climate Change up-to date and appropriate • key role in the global C-cycle and climate information andsystem products, • 50% of interannual variability of the global C-balance developed specifically for Africa, • > 50% of global fire emissions to better understand and predict • 1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change climate change and its impacts in SubWeakness Saharan Africa direct linkage between • most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability climate, food production, next • population mostly depend on the rain fed for ruralthe sector economy and livelihood • economy relies mainly on natural resources10-20 years • less covered region by climate change studies • climate models developed outside the African context • current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with less focus to the shorter time frame EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion not enough or not adequate climate related info and products for Africa Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation ClimAfrica Objectives 1. Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scale 2. Assess climate impacts in water resources and agriculture sectors 3. Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and population to interannual variations and decadal trends in climate 4. Suggest and analyse new adaptation strategies suited to SSA 5. Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system for food security, risk management, civil protection 6. Analyse the economic impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation WP1 past climate variability WP6 case studies WP3 climate impacts WP5 Socioeconomic implications WP8 dissemination WP7 project management WP2 climate predictability and forecasts WP4 Medium-term warning system vulnerability, adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Expected advancements Improved information and tools delivered on a time scale effective for timely adaptation actions: 1. Improved climate predictions (seasonal/decadal) over Africa 2. Assessment of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture in the next 10-20 years 3. New adaptation strategies suited to Africa's needs 4. Assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation 5. An operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system 6. Provision and training to local stakeholders of new modelling tools to improve climate risk analysis in water and agricultural sectors 7. Enhanced scientific cooperation + capacity development EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation 1 2 Acronym CMCC ULUND Participant organisation name CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO per i CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI LUNDS UNIVERSITET Country Italy Sweden 3 CEA COMMISSARIAT A L’ENERGIE ATOMIQUE France 4 5 MPG VUA 6 CTFC MAX PLANCK GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN Germany VERENIGING VOOR CHRISTELIJK HOGER ONDERWIJS WETENSCHAPPELIJK Netherlands ONDERZOEK EN PATIENTEZORG CENTRE TECNOLOGIC FORESTAL DE CATALUNYA Spain 7 PIC POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH 8 CIRAD CENTRE DE COOPERATION INTERNATIONAL EN RECHERCHE AGRONOMIQUE France POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT 9 FAO – GTOS FOOD and AGRICULTURE ORGANISATION of the UNITED NATIONS 10 SOW – VU 11 UR2PI 12 UCT STICHTING ONDERZOEK WERELDVOEDSELVOORZIENING VAN DE VRIJE Netherlands UNIVERSITEIT UNITE DE RECHERCHE SUR LA PRODUCTIVITE DES PLANTATIONS Congo INDUSTRIELLES UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN South Africa 13 BCA UNIVERSITY OF MALAWI Malawi 14 LBEV UNIVERSITY OF LOMÉ Togo 15 ARC AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CORPORATION Sudan 16 ICPAC IGAD CENTRE FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION APPLICATION Kenya 17 CSIR-CRI Germany COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH – CROPS RESEARCH Ghana INSTITUTE 18 CERPINEDD CENTRE D’ETUDE DE RECHERCHE ET DE PRODUCTION EN INFORMATION Burkina Faso L’ENVIRONNEMENT ET LE DEVELOPPEMENT DURABLE EC Side EventPOUR - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, Partnership 18 institutions: 9 Europe 8 Africa + FAO Project coordinator: CMCC – Italy www.cmcc-org Local case studies: 1)Burkina Faso 2)Congo 3)Ghana 4)Malawi 5)Sudan 6)Togo 7)Kenya 8)Ethiopia 9)Tanzania 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Some of the outstanding achievements • Development of new methods and tools • Capacity building for climate scientist and users • Pioneering the Regional Climate Outlook forums (RCOFs): Total of • • • • 29. Established good collaboration and networks with met services, research organizations, the Media Education and awareness on climate risk management Pilot application projects Increasing number of new partnerships in operational climate science implications to welfare of whole region… EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation LESSONS LEARNED. SUCCESS OF Regional Climate outlook forums and user experiences have been fulfilling… ICPAC Has more 10 years of operational climate service provision to Eastern Africa as a whole. Most recent example of regional vulnerability to climate extremes is failure of rainfall in large areas of Equatorial Eastern Africa since 2010 through most of 2011 with life threatening famine affecting large areas of the region….ICPAC GHACOFs 26, 27, & 28 provided the regional scale scope this climate anomaly, but there may have been minimal policies and actions to help communities within those areas cushion themselves against these conditions. Impacts have been quite catastrophic in several parts the Greater Horn…. NOW LEARNED. WHAT BETTER WAY THAN THE DECLARATION BY HEADS OF STATES Heads of States within Horn of Africa have taken a commitment on climate risk…eradication of drought emergencies, undertake investments, polices and programs that enable communities to have the necessary resilience to adverse climate extremes. …. EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation Skill/Performance of the CMCC-model for Sub-Sahara Africa rainfall (Top row is the model rainfall pattern, and bottom row is Observations). The basic annual cycle with good spatial distribution is captured by the model. Model Obs EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation ICPAC EXAMPLES…GHACOF29: FCST SOND2011 ICPAC RCC product, 3rd Sep 2011— Addressing GHA 2011 drought & Famine/Food Crisis …. October – December 2011 EA-Rainfall : After nearly 2years no rain in parts: Kenya, S. Somalia, NE. Tanzania & S. Ethiopia, rainfall as come as predicted. Prediction done & released on 3rd Sept.2011 as GHACOF29. EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation CC..Examples from Kenya…Minimum Temperatures in some areas of Kenya may be suggesting climate change…… 16 Minimum Temperature(Deg. C) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Jan-04 Jan-02 Jan-00 Jan-98 Jan-96 Jan-94 Jan-92 Jan-90 Jan-88 Jan-86 Jan-84 Jan-82 Jan-80 Jan-78 Jan-76 Jan-74 Jan-72 Jan-70 Jan-68 Jan-66 Jan-64 Jan-62 Jan-60 0 Month/Year EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation SUMMARY ClimAfrica is the Scientific EU-Africa CC cooperation towards enabling of SubSahara Africa (SSA) to be able to predict skillfully climate variability, extremes, and changes on time scales ranging from seasonal to decadal. This improved climate predictions is the baseline information that the policy makers and people of SSA need for their socio-economic welfare, especially for rain-fed agriculture, water resources, environmental productivity and protection. ClimAfrica outputs will empower SSA and EU-as a major development and friend of SSA to undertake practical socio-economic mitigation and adaption strategies against adverse climate extremes and change in support of welfare of peoples of SSA. EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011