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ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
CLIMAFRICA
Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa:
impacts and adaptations
Antonio Bombelli
Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Italy
(Project Coordination Office)
&
Joseph Mutemi
IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction Application, Kenya
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavilion
Durban, 28 November 2011
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
CLIMAFRICA
Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts
and adaptations
European Commission – FP7
3.5 M€
48 months: 1 Oct 2010 – 30 Sep 2014
Key Words
Climate Predictions; Climate Impacts;
Vulnerabilities; Adaptation; Case Studies;
Agriculture and Water Resources;
Socio-economic analysis
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
Why ClimAfrica?
Africa and Climate Change
• key role in the global C-cycle and climate system
•  50% of interannual variability of the global C-balance
• > 50% of global fire emissions
•  1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change
Weakness
• most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability
• population mostly depend on the rain fed rural sector
• economy relies mainly on natural resources
• less covered region by climate change studies
• climate models developed outside the African context
• current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with
less focus to the shorter time frame
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
direct linkage between
climate, food production,
economy and livelihood
not enough or
not adequate climate
related info and
products for Africa
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
Why ClimAfrica?
Urgent need for the most
Africa and Climate Change up-to date and appropriate
• key role in the global C-cycle
and climate
information
andsystem
products,
•  50% of interannual variability
of
the
global
C-balance
developed specifically
for Africa,
• > 50% of global fire emissions
to better understand and predict
•  1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change
climate change and
its impacts in SubWeakness
Saharan Africa direct linkage between
• most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability
climate, food production,
next
• population mostly depend on the rain fed for
ruralthe
sector
economy and livelihood
• economy relies mainly on natural resources10-20 years
• less covered region by climate change studies
• climate models developed outside the African context
• current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with
less focus to the shorter time frame
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
not enough or
not adequate climate
related info and
products for Africa
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
ClimAfrica Objectives
1. Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal
time scale
2. Assess climate impacts in water resources and agriculture sectors
3. Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and population to interannual variations and decadal trends in climate
4. Suggest and analyse new adaptation strategies suited to SSA
5. Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and
forecasting warning system for food security, risk management,
civil protection
6. Analyse the economic impact of climate change on agriculture
and water resources and the cost-effectiveness of potential
adaptation measures
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
WP1
past climate
variability
WP6
case studies
WP3
climate
impacts
WP5
Socioeconomic
implications
WP8 dissemination
WP7 project management
WP2
climate
predictability
and forecasts
WP4
Medium-term
warning
system
vulnerability,
adaptation
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
Expected advancements
Improved information and tools delivered on a time scale effective
for timely adaptation actions:
1. Improved climate predictions (seasonal/decadal) over Africa
2. Assessment of climate impacts on water resources and
agriculture in the next 10-20 years
3. New adaptation strategies suited to Africa's needs
4. Assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts
and adaptation
5. An operational medium term monitoring and forecasting
warning system
6. Provision and training to local stakeholders of new modelling
tools to improve climate risk analysis in water and agricultural
sectors
7. Enhanced scientific cooperation + capacity development
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
1
2
Acronym
CMCC
ULUND
Participant organisation name
CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO per i CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
LUNDS UNIVERSITET
Country
Italy
Sweden
3
CEA
COMMISSARIAT A L’ENERGIE ATOMIQUE
France
4
5
MPG
VUA
6
CTFC
MAX PLANCK GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN
Germany
VERENIGING VOOR CHRISTELIJK HOGER ONDERWIJS WETENSCHAPPELIJK Netherlands
ONDERZOEK EN PATIENTEZORG
CENTRE TECNOLOGIC FORESTAL DE CATALUNYA
Spain
7
PIC
POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH
8
CIRAD
CENTRE DE COOPERATION INTERNATIONAL EN RECHERCHE AGRONOMIQUE France
POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT
9
FAO – GTOS FOOD and AGRICULTURE ORGANISATION of the UNITED NATIONS
10
SOW – VU
11
UR2PI
12
UCT
STICHTING ONDERZOEK WERELDVOEDSELVOORZIENING VAN DE VRIJE Netherlands
UNIVERSITEIT
UNITE DE RECHERCHE SUR LA PRODUCTIVITE DES PLANTATIONS Congo
INDUSTRIELLES
UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN
South Africa
13
BCA
UNIVERSITY OF MALAWI
Malawi
14
LBEV
UNIVERSITY OF LOMÉ
Togo
15
ARC
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CORPORATION
Sudan
16
ICPAC
IGAD CENTRE FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION APPLICATION
Kenya
17
CSIR-CRI
Germany
COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH – CROPS RESEARCH Ghana
INSTITUTE
18 CERPINEDD CENTRE D’ETUDE DE RECHERCHE ET DE PRODUCTION EN INFORMATION Burkina Faso
L’ENVIRONNEMENT
ET LE
DEVELOPPEMENT DURABLE
EC Side EventPOUR
- UNFCCC
COP17, EU
Pavillion
Durban,
Partnership
18 institutions:
9 Europe
8 Africa
+ FAO
Project
coordinator: CMCC
– Italy
www.cmcc-org
Local
case studies:
1)Burkina Faso
2)Congo
3)Ghana
4)Malawi
5)Sudan
6)Togo
7)Kenya
8)Ethiopia
9)Tanzania
28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
Some of the outstanding achievements
• Development of new methods and tools
• Capacity building for climate scientist and users
• Pioneering the Regional Climate Outlook forums (RCOFs): Total of
•
•
•
•
29.
Established good collaboration and networks with met services,
research organizations, the Media
Education and awareness on climate risk management
Pilot application projects
Increasing number of new partnerships in operational climate
science implications to welfare of whole region…
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
LESSONS LEARNED. SUCCESS OF Regional Climate outlook forums
and user experiences have been fulfilling…
ICPAC Has more 10 years of operational climate service provision to Eastern Africa as a whole.
Most recent example of regional vulnerability to climate extremes is failure of rainfall in large
areas of Equatorial Eastern Africa since 2010 through most of 2011 with life threatening
famine affecting large areas of the region….ICPAC GHACOFs 26, 27, & 28 provided the
regional scale scope this climate anomaly, but there may have been minimal policies and
actions to help communities within those areas cushion themselves against these conditions.
Impacts have been quite catastrophic in several parts the Greater Horn….
NOW LEARNED.
WHAT BETTER WAY THAN THE DECLARATION BY HEADS OF STATES
Heads of States within Horn of Africa have taken a commitment on climate risk…eradication
of drought emergencies, undertake investments, polices and programs that enable
communities to have the necessary resilience to adverse climate extremes. ….
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
Skill/Performance of the CMCC-model for Sub-Sahara Africa rainfall (Top row is the
model rainfall pattern, and bottom row is Observations). The basic annual cycle with
good spatial distribution is captured by the model.
Model
Obs
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
ICPAC EXAMPLES…GHACOF29: FCST SOND2011 ICPAC RCC product, 3rd Sep 2011—
Addressing GHA 2011 drought & Famine/Food Crisis ….
October – December 2011 EA-Rainfall : After
nearly 2years no rain in parts: Kenya, S.
Somalia, NE. Tanzania & S. Ethiopia, rainfall as
come as predicted. Prediction done & released
on 3rd Sept.2011 as GHACOF29.
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
CC..Examples from Kenya…Minimum Temperatures
in some areas of Kenya may be suggesting climate change……
16
Minimum Temperature(Deg. C)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Jan-04
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-98
Jan-96
Jan-94
Jan-92
Jan-90
Jan-88
Jan-86
Jan-84
Jan-82
Jan-80
Jan-78
Jan-76
Jan-74
Jan-72
Jan-70
Jan-68
Jan-66
Jan-64
Jan-62
Jan-60
0
Month/Year
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
SUMMARY
ClimAfrica is the Scientific EU-Africa CC cooperation towards enabling of SubSahara Africa (SSA) to be able to predict skillfully climate variability, extremes,
and changes on time scales ranging from seasonal to decadal.
This improved climate predictions is the baseline information that the policy
makers and people of SSA need for their socio-economic welfare, especially for
rain-fed agriculture, water resources, environmental productivity and
protection.
ClimAfrica outputs will empower SSA and EU-as a major development and friend
of SSA to undertake practical socio-economic mitigation and adaption strategies
against adverse climate extremes and change in support of welfare of peoples of
SSA.
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011
ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in
Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation
EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion
Durban, 28 November 2011