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Transcript
The “Pangaea” Simulator -- An Decision-MakerOriented International Climate Simulator Drew Jones Sustainability Institute Working with Ventana Systems and MIT System Dynamics Group September 2008 QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Simulation Creation Team • Lead Modeler – Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems • http://www.metasd.com/index.html • Modeling, Framing, and Presentation Design – Andrew Jones, Sustainability Institute • http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/ • [email protected] – Dr. Lori Siegel, contractor to SI • Modeling and Framing – Dr. John Sterman, MIT • http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/ QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. “Climate Interactive” is a growing coalition of business, academic, & nonprofit organizations QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Creating a portfolio of fast, accessible, robust, transparent simulations to help address climate change Climate Interactive Senior Team Members Dr. John Sterman, MIT Sloan School of Management Director, System Dynamics Group Author, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World Dr. Peter Senge, MIT Senior Lecturer, Sloan School of Management Founding Chairman, Society for Organizational Learning Author, The Fifth Discipline Dr. Michelle Erickson, Citigroup Director, Sustainable Information Technology Program Dr. Bill Moomaw, The Fletcher School, Tufts University Director of the Center for International Environment & Resource Policy Lead author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2003 (IPCC) Purpose of Simulator is to Help Decision Makers Understand Dynamics of Climate Mitigation Inputs Outputs • Fossil fuel emissions by countries or “economy group” • Land use emissions • Additional sequestration from aforestation • Other greenhouse gas emissions • CO2 in the atmosphere • Global temperature • Total emissions • Total removals to oceans, biomass etc. • Sea level rise Regional FF Emissions 6B 4.5 B 750 600 3B And Developing Major Economies 1.5 B ppm TonsC/year CO2 concentration in the atmosphere Emissions from Developed Major Economies 450 One goal And Non-Major Economies 0 2007 2023 2038 2054 2069 Time (year) 2085 2100 300 2000 CO2 in the atmosphere 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Simulator Helps Users Conduct Customized Tests: (all graphs fossil fuel What If…..? emissions) Regional FF Emissions Business as usual 4.5 B TonsC/year TonsC/year 7.5 B 5B All reduced 80% by 2050? Or by 2030? 4.5 B 3B 3B 1.5 B 2.5 B 0 2007 6B 6B TonsC/year 10 B Regional FF Emissions Regional FF Emissions 1.5 B 2023 2038 2054 2069 Time (year) 2085 0 2007 2100 0 2007 2023 2038 2054 2069 Time (year) 2085 2023 2038 2100 Regional FF Emissions 2054 2069 Time (year) 2085 2100 Regional FF Emissions Regional FF Emissions 6B 6B 6B Some by 2030 and others 2060? 1.5 B 4.5 B TonsC/year 3B Starting in 2018? 4.5 B TonsC/year TonsC/year 4.5 B 3B Developed acts but undeveloped doesn’t? 3B 1.5 B 1.5 B 0 2007 2023 2038 2054 2069 Time (year) 2085 2100 0 2007 2023 2038 2054 2069 Time (year) 2085 2100 0 2007 2023 2038 2054 2069 Time (year) 2085 2100 What Would Be the Effect on CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere Over Time? CO2 in the Atmosphere 1,000 ppm 825 650 475 300 2000 2020 2040 ppm CO2 in Atmosphere : cap at 95 emissions ppm CO2 in Atmosphere : all 80% by 2050 plus seq ppm CO2 in Atmosphere : base ppm CO2 in Atmosphere : mostly developed Goal for CO2 in the atmosphere : cap at 95 emissions 2060 2080 2100 What Would Total Emissions Looks Like, Divided by Economy Group, since 1900? FF Emissions by Country Group (fossil fuel emissions) 8B TonsC/year 6B 4B 2B Developed MEs 0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 Time (year) Developed ME CO2 FF emissions : all 80% by 2050 plus seq Developing ME CO2 FF emissions : all 80% by 2050 plus seq Non ME CO2 FF emissions : all 80% by 2050 plus seq 2050 2080 How About for Specific Countries? (fossil fuel emissions) Regional Emissions by country/region 6B 4.5 B tonsC/year India China Japan 3B Russia EU 1.5 B US 0 1900 Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical and forecast and forecast and forecast and forecast and forecast and forecast 1920 national national national national national national 1940 CO2 FF CO2 FF CO2 FF CO2 FF CO2 FF CO2 FF 1960 1980 2000 2020 emissions[US] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq emissions[EU] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq emissions[Russia] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq emissions[Japan] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq emissions[China] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq emissions[India] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq 2040 2060 2080 2100 Or Cumulative Fossil Fuel Emissions? Cumulative Emissions by country/region Fraction of Global Cumulative Emissions by country/region 400 B 0.3 300 B tonsC 0.4 0.2 India China Japan Russia 200 B EU 0.1 100 B US 0 1990 National National National National National National 2010 fraction of accumulated world FF fraction of accumulated world FF fraction of accumulated world FF fraction of accumulated world FF fraction of accumulated world FF fraction of accumulated world FF 2030 2050 2070 CO2 emissions[US] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2 emissions[EU] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2 emissions[Russia] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2 emissions[Japan] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2 emissions[China] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2 emissions[India] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq 2090 0 2000 Accumulated national Accumulated national Accumulated national Accumulated national Accumulated national Accumulated national 2015 FF FF FF FF FF FF 2030 2045 CO2[US] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2[EU] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2[Russia] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2[Japan] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2[China] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq CO2[India] : all 80% by 2050 plus seq 2060 2075 2090 Or Global Temperature? Global Temperature Increase 3 2.5 DegreesC 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 Relative Temperature : all 80% by 2050 plus seq Relative Temperature : cap at 95 emissions Relative Temperature : base Relative Temperature : mostly developed Goal for Temperature : all 80% by 2050 plus seq 2060 2080 2100 What If We Boost Removals With Sequestration Through Aforestation? CO2 in the Atmosphere Sources of Total Removals 800 700 4.475 B oceans 2.95 B seq. 1.425 B 600 ppm TonC/year 6B 500 -100 M 1900 biomass 1930 1960 1990 2020 Time (year) 2050 2080 Goal 400 300 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Results with 80% reduction in fossil fuel emissions plus 1.6 GTC/year in additional sequestration by 2050 2100 Users Move Sliders to Select “What If” Experiments Using the Prototype Control Panel QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Historical Fit Results Temperature -- Model vs Data 900 B 1 800 B 0.625 DegreesC TonC CO2 vs Data 700 B -0.125 600 B 500 B 1740 0.25 1770 1800 1830 1860 1890 Time (year) CO2 in Atmosphere : all 80% by 2050 plus seq Mauna Loa CO2 TonC : all 80% by 2050 plus seq Siple Ice CO2 TonC : all 80% by 2050 plus seq 1920 1950 1980 2010 -0.5 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Time (year) Modeled Temperature Hadley data JWW data Angell data Exploring Implications of Uncertainty in Parameters Through Sensitivity Testing Temperature Uncertainty 5 4 DegreesC 3 2 1 0 1900 1940 1980 2020 Time (year) 2060 2100 Overview of Model Structure Specific country emissions Specific country emissions Specific country emissions Developing major economies Developed major economies Non major economies Changes to: Aforestation Deforestation Other GHGs Total fossil fuel CO2 emissions Carbon cycle Land use CO2 emissions CO2 Sequestration Forests Climate GHGs in atm Temp The CoreCarbon of theCycle Carbon Simplified Sector Cycle Sector CO2 in Humus Flux Biomass to Humus Flux Humus to Atmosphere CO2 in Flux Biomass to AtmosphereBiomass CO2 in Atmosphere Flux Atm to Biomass <CO2 Emissions> Flux Atm to Ocean CO2 in Mixed Layer (7 layers) Diffusion Flux CO2 in Deep Ocean (7 layers) The Core of the Climate Sector Climate Sensitivity Climate Feedback Param Feedback Cooling CO2 Radiative Forcing Other Forcings Relative Atmosphere and Upper Ocean Temperature Temp Diff Relative Deep Ocean Temp CFC Forcing Heat in Atmosphere and Upper Ocean Radiative Forcing Heat Transfer Heat in Deep Ocean CH4 and N2O RF input We Use Metaphors to Help Explain Model Behavior: Think of CO2 in the Atmosphere as a Bathtub Emissions CO2 in the atmosphere The tub is filled by emissions and drained by net removals into oceans and biomass. The inflow is roughly double the outflow Net Removals The “flat path” caps emissions above removals. More is still flowing into the bathtub than is flowing out. So the level of water in the bathtub continues to rise. For Example: 80% Reduction Brings Emissions Down to Meet Removals Total Emissions and Removals 24 B Emissions CO2 in the atmosphere TonC/year 18 B 12 B Emissions 6B 0 2000 Net Removals 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 So levels of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilize. Net Removals Our Simulator Use Philosophy • Runs fast for high-iteration model testing – Model simulates 500 years in less than .1 second – Allows for practical analysis in areas such as uncertainty, tradeoffs, optimization, and robustness • Hands-on use by policy-makers – Simulators designed to be used easily on a laptop by nonmodelers • Transparency – We share model equations – No black box models • Understanding causes of dynamics – We take the time to ensure users understand why the model is doing what it is doing. We don’t say, “because the model says so”. Simulator to Benefit From and Supplement Other Models • Pangaea uses data, structure and insights from other, larger, more disaggregated and detailed models – EG, the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) • Nations model generates internally consistent scenarios that could be tested and refined and verified in larger models • Our purpose is to create a small model and make it useful to policy setting and learning about complex dynamics Sources of Structure and Data Carbon Cycle and Temperature Bolin, B. 1986. Fiddaman. T.S. 1997. Nordhaus, W. D. 1992, 1994, 2000 Goudriaan, J. and P. Ketner. 1984. Oeschger, H., U. Siegenthaler, et al. 1975. Rotmans, J. 1990. Schwartz, S.E. 2007. Schneider, S.H., and S.L. Thompson. 1981. Socolow, R.H. And S.H. Lam. 2007. Wullschleger, S. D., W. M. Post, et al. 1995. Sea Level Rise Rahmstorf, S. 2007. Sources of Historical Data Historical FF CO2 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/CSV-FILES/ Historical Population Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Calculated by dividing FF emissions by FF emissions per capita Historical GDP Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls. Historical CO2 atmospheric concentrations Mauna Loa – National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Siple Ice - Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 1994. Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core http://cdiac.ESD.ORNL.GOV/trends/co2/siple.htm Historical Temperature Changes HADCRUT3, Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. National Climatic Data Center, NCDC. CFC Forcing Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/ Other Forcings GISS. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ Sources of Projected Data Projected FF CO2 emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature BAU: US MiniCAM EMF Standard Reference Europe AIM96 Standard Reference China MiniCAM EMF Standard Reference India MERGE 3.0 Ref World MiniCAM EMF14 Standard Reference World CETA EMF14 Standard Reference World AIM EMF14 Standard Reference World ASF SRES A1 Scenario Reduction: World MiniCAM EMF14 Accelerated Technology World CETA EMF14 Accelerated Technology Projected N2O and CH4 atmospheric concentrations IPCC Third Assessment Report. 2001. Chapter 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. P.358. We Have Calibrated Our Future Global Fossil Fuel Emissions to Track MiniCAM Most Closely Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 40 B tonsC/year 30 B 20 B 10 B 0 1990 2010 2030 World CO2 FF emissions : BAU MiniCAM EMF14 Standard Reference CETA EMF14 Standard Reference AIM96 Standard Standard Reference ASF SRES A1 Data 2050 Time (year) 2070 2090 We Have Calibrated Our Country-Level Fossil Fuel Emissions to Track MiniCAM, AIM, and MERGE EU Emissions Calibration 4B 4B 3B 3B tonsC/year tonsC/year US Emissions Calibration 2B 1B 2B 1B 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 Time (year) 0 1990 2090 CO2 FF emissions[US] : BAU USA MiniCAM EMF Stnd Ref US Emissions AIM EMF16 Mod Ref 2090 India Emissions Calibration 8B 4B 6B 3B tonsC/year tonsC/year 2030 2050 2070 Time (year) CO2 FF emissions[EU] : BAU EU Emissions AIM EMF16 Mod Ref China Emissions Calibration 4B 2B 0 1990 2010 2B 1B 2010 2030 2050 2070 Time (year) CO2 FF emissions[China] : BAU China MiniCAM EMF Stnd Ref China AIM96 Standard Scenario 2090 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 Time (year) CO2 FF emissions[India] : BAU India MERGE3 Ref 2090 We Compared Our Model’s Business as Usual Scenario for CO2 Concentrations to Other Models IPCC CO2 Atm Conc Models vs Nations Model 1,000 ppm 750 500 250 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 ppm CO2 in Atmosphere : BAU MiniCAM Stnd Ref CETA EMF14 Stnd Ref RICE EMF14 2030 2040 2050 Time (year) 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 We Compared Our Model’s Response to the MiniCAM Business as Usual Fossil Fuel Emissions Scenario CO2 concentration in the atmosphere Result when our carbon cycle is fed by MiniCAM’s emissions ppm 800 400 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 Time (year) Our Model MiniCAM 2070 2090 We Compared Our Model’s Response to the MiniCAM “Accelerated Tech” Reduction Fossil Fuel Emissions Scenario CO2 concentration in the atmosphere Result when our carbon cycle is fed by MiniCAM’s emissions 400 MiniCAM FF Emissions for Accel Tech Reduction Scenario 200 8B 1990 2020 2050 Time (year) Our Model MiniCAM 2080 6B tonsC/year ppm 600 4B 2B 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 Time (year) Emissions World MiniCAM Accel Tech : bau 2070 2090 We Plan to Post the Sim Online for Global Use QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. More information • Models on which the model that created these runs were based – http://www.metasd.com/models/index.html#Climate • Interactive version covering some of these ideas – http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/challenge.htm – http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/tools_resources/climatebathtubsim. html – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/GHG.html • Video version – http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8235725143334110601&pr=g oog-sl • Other related simulations – http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/climate_change/simulations.html \ • Project blog – http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/ • For an interactive, online demonstration, contact – [email protected]
