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NCAR
Research into climate issues
Climate Analysis Section
•NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation
Global warming is “unequivocal”:
Adaptation to climate change
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Assess vulnerability
Devise coping strategies
Determine impacts of possible changes
Plan for future changes
Requires information
Imperative:
A climate information system
 Observations: forcings, atmosphere, ocean, land
 Analysis: comprehensive, integrated, products
 Assimilation: model based, initialization
 Attribution: understanding, causes
 Assessment: global, regions, impacts, planning
 Predictions: multiple time scales
 Decision Making: impacts, adaptation
An Integrated Earth System Information System
Climate Information System
NCAR
Trenberth, 2008 WMO Bull
Nature 6 December 2007
Climate Analysis Section
The mission is to increase the understanding of the
atmosphere and climate system through empirical
studies and
diagnostic
analyses ofwethe atmosphere
By increasing
understanding,
and its interactions
with the
Earth's
evaluate and develop
datasets,
newsurface and
of analysis,
products,
oceans methods
on a wide
range ofnew
scales.
and establish attribution and
predictability and the processes
involved, all of which contribute to a
system and
ENSOclimate information
Climate Change
climate services
NAO
CAS Activities
e.g.
Community Service and Outreach
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Assessments (IPCC, CCSP SAPs)
WCRP (CLIVAR; GEWEX), GCOS, IGBP (GLOBEC)
NRC (CRC), CCSP, NOAA, other panels, advisory bds
Working with postdocs, students and visitors
E&O (SOARS, K-12 Education; Public lectures)
Media outreach (UCAR contact list)
Congressional testimony
Editorships
Decision making (WGA, WUCA, …)
CAS contributed a lot to IPCC
2007
Coordinating Lead Authors
NCAR
Some Contributing “Authors”
Lead Authors
CAS Activities
Productivity
Some metrics
Publications:
Since 1 January 2004 CAS scientists have
authored or coauthored ~234* refereed journal articles
Impact: Publications are highly cited (4 staff members are
recognized by ISI as “highly cited researchers”; over
38,700 citations among us (July 2010))
Proposals: 16!: all CAS scientists have 1 or more (usually 2)
Collaborations: Many in universities and other
laboratories
Community Service and Outreach:
as outlined
previously, service is extensive and visibility is high
*D42,D28,F21,H23,M1,P10,S5,T9,T61,W34 (July 2010; incl in press): 301 with Meehl
! In place and pending
CAS Activities
Web page
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas
Receives many hits:
•CAS home page one of most visited in
CGD: comparable to CESM1.0
•Top section page (by far)
•13 of top 20 most visited in CGD are
CAS
•For July 1-25:
•CAS home page 1800 hits
•Scientists: 230 to 466 hits (well
above other CGD)
CAS Activities
Data Set Development and Community Distribution
(http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog)
• Acquisition (with DSS) of data
(global analyses; reanalyses; satellite; surface)
• Reformatting, Evaluation; Improvement
• Development of new (value-added) products
• Climate Indices
• Documentation of methods, metadata, results
• Promotion of reprocessing and reanalysis
• Web Access and Data Catalogs
• Processing and Data Display; Workshops
(http://www.ncl.ucar.edu)
CAS Activities
Data Set catalog
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog
Has many pages backing it up:
Recently redone.
Has 7 of top 20 visits (out of
cgd.ucar.edu), mainly for climate
indices (3382 hits 1-25 July 2010)
Diagnostic Studies and Attribution
Of the real world
 Of mean, variability and change
 Phenomena (ENSO, NAO, PDO, AMO, MJO etc)
 High impacts events (droughts, floods, hurricanes)
 Processes
Of models
 Numerical experimentation:
mechanisms and attribution
Development of analytical and diagnostic
techniques to process observations and
model data and facilitate their evaluation
Rainfall annual cycle
Observed
CCSM
Climate Analysis:
Diagnostic, Theoretical and Modeling Studies
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Empirical and diagnostic analyses of models and observations
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Climate observations
Community data sets
Community software development
Climate predictability
Climate sensitivity
Paleoclimate
Climate change
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Physical constraints:
e.g. The energy and water cycles
• How they change over time
Trenberth et al 2009; Trenberth et al 2007
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Water cycle research
The global water cycle and its response to global warming, focusing on
clouds, precipitation, streamflow, soil moisture droughts, etc.
Model evaluation and diagnostics
Drought is increasing
most places
Dai et al 2004
 Land precipitation closely
matches river discharge
 Large ENSO effects
 Mt Pinatubo effects
Trenberth and Dai 2007
Dai et al 2009
Attribution
CAS has carried out many studies on mechanisms and modes of
variability that have contributed to observed climate anomalies.
CAS helps develop capabilities that contribute to an operational
attribution activity by pioneering studies and numerical
experimentation that might be used in near real time to allow
reliable statements to be made not only about what the state of
the climate is, but also why it is the way it is.
Studies involve the atmosphere and the fully coupled system.
Sea Level Pressure Trend Simulated by CAM3: 1950-2000
GHG+O3 Forcing
All forcing: (SST+GHG+O3)
(pattern correlation with nature = 0.8)
Deser and Phillips (J. Climate)
SST forcing only
CAS Activities
Atmospheric Reanalyses
Current atmospheric reanalyses, with the horizontal resolution (latitude;
T159 is equivalent to about 0.8 ), the starting and ending dates, the
approximate vintage of the model and analysis system, and current status.
Reanalysis
Horiz.Res
Dates
Vintage
Status
NCEP/NCAR R1
T62
1948-present
1995
ongoing
NCEP-DOE R2
T62
1979-present
2001
ongoing
CFSR (NCEP)
T382
1979-present
2009
thru 2009, ongoing
C20r (NOAA)
T62
1875-2008
2009
Complete, in progress
ERA-40
T159
1957-2002
2004
done
ERA-Interim
T255
1989-present
2009
ongoing
JRA-25
T106
1979-present
2006
ongoing
JRA-55
T319
1958-2012
2009
underway
1979-present
2009
thru 2010, ongoing
MERRA (NASA) 0.5
•Transport
•E-P_ocean
•P-E_land
CCSM4 1990s vs Trenberth et al for 2000-2005
Lower as the
1990s include
Pinatubo
Decadal Climate Variability
Change in Winter Sea Level Pressure (1980-2008)
•Dec-Mar
•(hPa)
•1900-2009
•Pressure Falls
•1900-2009
•Pressure Rises
Hurrell et al. (2010)
CAS Activities
CAS: CESM Numerical Experiments and Data Sets
e.g.
SST product for AMIP integrations
• Updated frequently (supports attribution)
• Available through Community Data Portal
• Used by major modeling groups
Leadership of and involvement in CESM WGs
• Leadership of overall project, CCWG and CVWG
• Many experiments for community use:
(http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/working_groups/Variability/experiments.html)
• Coordinated experiments addressing role of
SSTs and soil moisture in regional drought
• 40-member CCSM ensemble (2000-2061: A1B)
Evaluation of CESM and component models
• Comparisons among models and with observations
and evaluations to score the results, including
in multi-model ensembles
Pacific Cold and Atlantic Warm
CAS Activities
Prediction and Predictability
e.g.
Initialized Decadal Prediction
North Atlantic MOC Predictability
Trend (1st “Decade”)
Trend (2nd “Decade”)
Studies to assess the predictability associated
with the initial state and thermal inertia, modes of
variability, internal mechanisms and coupling among
climate system components and forcings
Nested Regional Climate Modeling
Develop two-way nesting capability
(WRF/ROMS and CAM/POP)
Apply to investigate scale-interactions and develop
approaches to address systematic CGCM biases
Provide community support for the modeling system
Apply the models for climate change research involving extreme
events such as hurricanes
Develop unified global modeling system representing a wide range of scales
An Informed Guide to Climate Datasets with
Relevance to Earth System Model Evaluation
(proposal submitted to NSF 10-554 EaSM)
Objectives:
• Evaluate and assess selected climate datasets
• Provide “expert-user” guidance addressing strengths & limitations
• Fills and major community gap and an immediate need within CESM
Features:
• Facilitate and enhance access to relevant datasets for diagnostic
analyses and model evaluation (including CMIP5/AR5)
• Web-based guide, including a means for enabling additional
informed commentary and datasets outside of our own expertise
• Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Cryosphere, Biosphere
• Expertise within CAS well positioned for this task
Prototype of the “Informed Guide”
NESL Imperatives
(paraphrased)
• promote innovation and creativity
• improve prediction and attribution of variations and changes in
climate; assessment of impacts; and communicating results;
• advance our world-leading numerical modeling systems of the
atmosphere and earth system, and support their wide community use;
• advanced supercomputing and data services;
• support earth system research and understanding through
development and support of observational facilities, and leadership
of focused observational studies; and,
• attract diverse students and early career scientists, and provide
them with exciting opportunities for educational and professional
development.
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Future needs: Observations and Analysis
 Observations: in situ and from space (that
satisfy the climate observing principles);
 A performance tracking system;
 Climate Data Records (CDRs)
 The ingest, archival, stewardship of data, data
management;
 Access to data
 Data processing and analysis
 The analysis and reanalysis of the observations
and derivation of products,
 Data assimilation and model initialization
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