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Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in Belgium prof. dr. ir. Patrick Willems K.U.Leuven – Hydraulics Division Hydrological climate change impact research for Belgium • Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium impacts on high and low flows BelSPO: CCI-HYDR climate change scenarios for hydrological impact analysis incl. extremes • VMM: − − • impacts on floods (non-navigable rivers 1st category) update urban drainage design guidelines INBO: impact on nature incl. comparison with KNMI’06 scenarios • MIRA-S & NARA 2009 • BelSPO: SUDEM-CLI: interfacing climatology –hydrology – ecology • EU-FP7: Theseus: correlation with storm surge and wave scenarios Belgian Coast Climate change scenarios for Belgium Based on simulation runs by global and regional climate models & IPCC SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios till 2100 GCM RCM 31 runs (A2,B2) & 26 runs (A1B) by 10 RCMs 17 runs by ECHAM5 (A1B) IPCC AR4: 27 runs by 21 GCMs (A2, A1B, B1) DMI 25 km Greenhouse gas emission scenarios IPCC SRES, 2001 & 2007: Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Validation regional climate model runs for control period (monthly temperature, 1961-1990): Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Increase in monthly temperature: summer: +2 to +7°C winter: +1.5 to +4°C Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Change in monthly precipitation: GCMs 1961-1990 : RCMs 1961-1990 : GCMs 2071-2100 : RCMs 2071-2100 : winters natter zomers droger Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Change in monthly precipitation: : increase in winter : decrease in summer (lower no. of small rain storms) winter: up to +60% summer: a.l.a. -70% no. wet days summer: a.l.a. -50% Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Change in precipitation – Intensity increase for most extreme storms most extreme storm in 2 years Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Change in precipitation – Intensity increase for most extreme storms most extreme storm in 10 years Historical climate trends for Belgium • Historical trend analysis – DJF rainfall extremes Uccle (10 min -> seasonal) 1898 –2005: anomaly in extremes [%] 30 Global warming impact 20 10 Multidecadal climate oscillation 0 -10 -20 winter, 10-year window winter, 15-year window long-term average approximate cyclic variations cyclic variations plus climate change climate change effect -30 -40 -50 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 year [-] 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Consistency check with historical trend analysis – Example: Winter (DJF), daily rainfall extremes: 1.35 Regional climate model simulations SHMI-MPI-A2 1.3 High = Wet SHMI-MPI-B2 1.25 Perturbation factor CNRM-DE6 DMI-ECC-A2 1.2 DMI-ECC-B2 CNRM-DE5 1.15 ICTP-A2 HS2 / HS3 / CNRM-DC9 Historical trend 30 years blocksize CNRM-DE7 / SHMI-HC22 GKSS-A2 GKSS-sn-A2 / METNO-A2 SHMI-HC-A2 ICTP-B2 DMI25 / KNMI METNO-B2 1.1 Historical trend 30 years blocksize: part c.c. increase 1.05 1 Mean = Mild ETH / HS1 SHMI-HC-B2 Current Control period (1960-1990) 0.95 1960 1970 1980 Low = Dry Scenario period (2070-2100) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Regional differences – Rainfall change about 10% higher along the Belgian coast More wet in winter: Low = Dry Mean = Mild High = Wet Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Regional differences – Rainfall change about 10% higher along the Belgian coast Less dry in summer: Low = Dry Mean = Mild High = Wet Statistical downscaling Large Scale 150 – 300 km; seasonally – monthly General Circulation Models (GCMs) Dynamical downscaling ± 50 km; weekly - daily ± 25 km; daily river catchment; hourly Hydrological scale Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Statistical downscaling Perturbation tool • Day -> hour (river), 10-min (sewer system) • Based on quantile perturbations: – change in rain storm frequency and rain storm intensity – dependent on return period rainfall intensity, season, weather type, … • Time horizons till 2030, 2050, …, 2100 Wet day frequency perturbation Wet day intensity perturbation Combined perturbation Daily Hourly 10min High = Wet Time series Month i Month i Month i Time series Mean = Mild Low = Dry Perturbation tool • Preserves physical consistency (dependency) between seasons and variables (precipitation, temperature and ETo) Winter Day-Winter Day-Summer Summer 1.4 1.2 1.2 factor Precip. change Rainfall Perturbation [-] factor Precip. change Rainfall Perturbation [-] 1.4 1 High High Mean Mean Low Low 0.8 0.6 0.4 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Eto Perturbation [-] ETo change factor 1.6 1.8 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Eto Perturbation [-] ETo change factor 1.6 1.8 Perturbation of rainfall series • Change in rainfall IDF-relations: – Based on Uccle 10 min rainfall series 1898-2005: Return period: 100 years 10 years 1 year 1 month Perturbation of rainfall series • Change in rainfall IDF-relations: – Daily rainfall results, climate model runs: Return period: 100 years 10 years 1 year 1 month Perturbation of rainfall series • Change in rainfall IDF-relations: – 10 min downscaling results, climate model runs: Return period: 10 years 1 year 1 month Climate change impact on urban drainage • Change in rainfall IDF-relations: – High, mean and low climate scenarios: 100 years 50 years 10 years 2 years 1 year 2 months 1 month Perturbation of rainfall series • Change in rainfall IDF-relations: – Shift in return period high climate scenario: Perturbation of “design” storms • Change in rainfall IDF-relations: – Change in composite storms, example T = 2 years: High Mean Low Hydro-impact modelling Rainfall, ETo Rainfall-runoff NAM, PDM: conceptual Spatially distributed: SCHEME (KMI/IRM), MIKE-SHE WetSpa (VUB) Bridge over tributary (culvert + weir) River hydrodynamics Physicochemical river water quality MIKE11 InfoWorks-RS + quasi 2D overstromingen TRIBUTARY Left floodplain Right floodplain MAIN RIVER MIKE11 EcoLab Spills Calculation nodes numerical scheme Hydrological impacts • Impact of climate scenarios on hourly runoff peaks: 80 variatie piekafavoeren (%)) ) High High Mean Mean Low Low 60 rainfallincrease 40 20 0 -20 -40 0.1 1 10 Terugkeerperiode (jaar) 100 EToincrease Hydrological impacts RUNOFF PEAKS Low scenario, Runoff peaks (-70%) (-49%) (-29%) (-21%) (-12%) - (-50%) - (-30%) - (-22%) - (-13%) -0 • Impact of climate scenarios on hourly runoff peaks: Low scenario, Runoff peaks Mean scenario, Runoff peaks RUNOFF PEAKS (-70%) - (-50%) (-14%) - (-13%) (-49%) - (-30%) (-12%) (-29%) - (-22%) (-11%) - (-9%) (-21%) - (-13%) (-8%) (-3%) (-12%) - 0 (-2%) - 3% High scenario, Runoff peaks Mean scenario, Runoff peaks 0 (-14%) (-13%) 1% - -22% (-12%) 23 %- 24% (-11%) (-9%) 25 %-- 32% (-8%) (-3%) 33% - 37% (-2%) - 3% Climate 2100, Flanders High scenario, Runoff peaks Change in flood risks is highly uncertain 0 -43 - -34 -33 - -19 1% - 22% Runoff peaks due to rainfall/ETo change decrease in low scenario and increase in high scenario (up to 35%) 2100, Flanders Major influence due to sea level rise (Scheldt tidal Climate river) Demer.shp 23 %- 24% -74 - -71 25 %32% -70 - -56 33%-55 - 37% - -44 CLIMAR Climate change scenarios for Belgium • Sea level rise: +20cm to +2m about 20cm past 100 years Impacts on floods • Flood map current climate: T = 100 year Current climate Impacts on floods • Flood map after climate scenarios: T = 100 year High scenario High = Wet Hydrological impacts Low scenario Low scenario, Runoff peaks LOW FLOW PEAKS (-88%) (-87%) (-67%) (-62%) (-54%) - (-68%) • Impact of climate scenarios on low flows extremes: - (-63%) Low scenario Mean scenario Mean scenario, Runoff peaks Low scenario, Runoff peaks - (-55%) - (-48%) LOW FLOW PEAKS (-88%) (-56%) - (-55%) (-87%) (-68%) (-54%) -- (-52%) (-51%) -- (-47%) (-67%) (-63%) (-46%) -- (-40%) (-62%) (-55%) (-39%) -- (-30%) (-54%) (-48%) Meanscenario scenario High Meanscenario, scenario,Runoff Runoffpeaks peaks High (-35%)- -(-55%) (-32%) (-56%) (-31%) (-24%) (-54%) - (-52%) (-23%)- -(-47%) (-21%) (-51%) (-20%) - (-15%) (-46%) - (-40%) (-14%) - (-10%) (-39%) - (-30%) Climate 2100, Flanders High scenario High scenario, Runoff peaks -43 - -34 Low flow risks increase significantly in -33 - all -19 scenarios (-35%) - (-32%) (-31%) - (-24%) Demer.shp (-23%) - (-21%) - -71 (-20%) -74 - (-15%) -70 - -56 (-14%) - (-10%) May increase problems rel. water quality, navigation, drinking water production, irrigation, ecological state river valley, ... -55 - -44 Climate 2100, Flanders Hydrological impacts • Drier summer climate can have severe impacts • Mean water availability in Flanders and Brussels is very limited: 1480 m3/(person.year) – International standards: <2000 “zeer weinig”, <1000 “ernstig watertekort” – Causes: • High population density: – high urbanisation, pavements: increased surface runoff, decreased infiltration – high drainage in agriculture – groundwater abstractions for drinking water supply (region of Waregem: groundwater table levels >100m lower than natural conditions) • (in Scheldt basin): less than half of available water is due to local rainfall • strong dependency on neighbouring regions (The Netherlands: Meuse and canal Gent-Terneuzen) Climate change impact on urban drainage • Change in overflow frequencies storage + infiltration facilities: – Reservoir model: Climate change impact on urban drainage • Change in overflow frequencies storage + infiltration facilities: – Change in storage capacity needed: constant throughflow [l/(s.ha)]: 50 40 30 25 20 15 10 5 2 1 Return period overflow [years]: 0.5 +35% +25% +18% +18% +16% +17% +17% +13% +13% +9% 1 +18% +16% +13% +14% +18% +20% +20% +17% +14% +10% 2 +17% +17% +12% +12% +13% +11% +19% +17% +14% +10% 5 +29% +25% +30% +31% +27% +22% +20% +18% +15% +10% 10 +24% +31% +29% +25% +26% +22% +24% +24% +30% 20 +33% +27% +25% +22% +21% +13% +17% +20% +18% Climate change impact on hydrology Climate scenarios for Belgium till 2100: Impact on water systems: – Winter season: • Rainfall increase • ETo increase • Sea level rise Unclear impact on inland river floods Increase in coastal flood risks – Summer season: • Rainfall decrease Increase in low flow / water scarcity problems • ETo increase • More intense convective summer storms Increase in sewer floods Climate change impact on hydrology For specific conditions of river basins in Flanders/Belgium: • Climate scenarios up to 2100: – Evolution towards more droughts – Impact on flood risk along inland rivers unclear (<-> coast) – Increase in short-duration rainfall extremes • But: climate scenarios not equal to predictions ! – Evolve along with our knowledge and understanding – High uncertainties; part of the uncertainties not accounted for • Adaptation measures ? – Use climate scenarios in water management planning ! – Take high uncertainties into account ! “concept of risk = probability * consequences” “no regret” measures, “climate proof” investments design a flexible strategy (adaptable measures/investments) Actions or adaptation measures • See river basin and subbasin management plans • New Sigmaplan – Geactualiseerd Sigmaplan: gecontroleerde overstromingsgebieden en natuurgebieden (1650 ha in 2030) en dijkverhogingen in steden en industriegebieden • Prediction of and warning for flood risks: • Real-time prediction and warning system • Real-time regulation of reservoirs: more efficient use of available storage capacity by model-predictive control algorithms Actions or adaptation measures • Against drier summer climate: – Maximum upstream holding of rain water in infiltration facilities, ditches, low-lying spaces, ... – Revision of regulations (vergunningen- en heffingenbeleid) and water-pricing system (sturend waterprijzenbeleid: variabele tarieven voor drinkwater, progressieve tarieven naargelang verbruik) – Reduction of water consumption, water loss, reuse of water (sensibilisering rationeel watergebruik) – “Water-audit” for new or renovated buildings – Innovation programmes for water efficient industrial production and irrigation Actions or adaptation measures • Against increased temporal variability of rainfall: drier summers + increased short-duration rainfall extremes: – calls for more attention to (local) rain water management (also at municipal level) – additional (upstream and local) rain water storage and infiltration needs • More small scale solutions (at large scale) • More important role to local water managers Actions or adaptation measures Accept increased frequencies of “water in the streets” local scale measures can significantly reduce the damage (for same flood frequency) Actions or adaptation measures More local upstream storage (local terrain depressions) combined effect: reduces sewer flood frequencies & rain water feeds groundwater table Actions or adaptation measures Better integration of water management and spatial planning / urban design Multiple functions to open spaces (e.g. parks) in the city: FWO research project together with K.U.Leuven - ASRO (PhD researchers Isabelle Putseys & Christian Nolf) Actions or adaptation measures Better integration of water management and ecological / nature management Role of wetlands: SUDEM-CLI cluster project for BelSPO (cooperation with U.Antwerp – ECOBE) Actions or adaptation measures Better integration of water management and agriculture Avoid winter runoff (and erosion) and increase infiltration by “adapted” agricultural management practices: • groenbemesting • ploegrichting • bufferstroken naast rivier Additional needs • Improved cooperation between water managers and spatial planners / urban designers, managemers of green zones in the city (parks, playing gardens) • Improved interlinking between: – Guidelines for design of urban drainage systems (code van goede praktijk voor het ontwerp van rioleringssystemen) – “Watertoets” – Building regulations (gewestelijke stedenbouwkundige verordening; andere stedenbouwkundige voorschriften) More info Research project CCI-HYDR on “Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) along rivers (Scheldt and Meuse basins) and urban drainage systems in Belgium” (for Belgian Science Policy Office): http://www.kuleuven.be/hydr/CCI-HYDR Impact studies: Instituut voor Natuur- en Bosonderzoek (INBO): http://http://www.inbo.be Vlaamse Overheid: Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: http://www.watlab.be Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij: http://www.milieurapport.be http://www.watertoets.be/publicaties