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Science, policy, and politics of global climate change Results from WS'06 survey Nicolas Gruber Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Switzerland Questionnaire 1. How large do you think was the observed global surface temperature increase from 1900 to 2000? Average: 0.9 ± 0.4 °C Range: 0.4 - 1.5 °C Questionnaire (cont) 2. How strongly are you convinced that the observed warming in the 20th century is due, in part, to human influences (1: not convinced; 5 strongly convinced) Average: 4.6 ± 0.5 Range: 4 - 5 Questionnaire (cont) 3. Which evidence do you find most convincing do demonstrate this human influence (up to three choices possible) a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. j. Instrumental temperature record (14) Satellite temperature record (6) Proxy temperature reconstruction for the last 1000 years (18) Retreat of tropical glaciers (8) Detection studies with models (1) Sea-ice retreat (3) Antarctic shelf-ice breakup (10) Stratospheric cooling (0) Day-night warming pattern (0) Your favorite choice (name) (5) CO2 record Global change: Ice-sheet breakdown January 31, 2002 Larsen ice-sheet in Antarctica March 5, 2002 Global change: Glacier retreat ca 1850 Rhone glacier 2004 Global change: Glacier retreat 2004 ~1900 2004 2004 Rhone glacier in Switzerland Questionnaire (cont) 4. Please rank the following components to radiative forcing in terms of their contribution to global warming. Do one ranking for now and one for what you think the situation will be in 50 years from now? TODAY a. b. c. d. e. f. CO2 (33) CH4 (20) CFCs (10) Aerosols (direct) (6) Aerosols (indirect) (5) Solar forcing (3) FUTURE a. b. c. d. e. f. CO2 (26) CH4 (20) CFCs (3) Aerosols (direct) (4) Aerosols (indirect) (7) Solar forcing (5) Note: water vapour is not considered a radiative forcing Questionnaire (cont) 5. How much different do you expect global mean temperature to be in 2030, 2050 and 2100 in comparison to now? Average: Range: 2030 2050 2100 0.7 ± 0.5 0.05 to 1.5 1.6 ± 1.5 0.5 to 6 2.8 ± 1.8 0.7 to 6.5 Projected warming (2071-2100) Projected changes in precipitation Questionnaire (cont) 6. What do you think will be the primary driver(s) for setting this temperature (rank 1-3)? a. Population changes (14) b. Economic development (16) c. Technological development (16) d. Earth system feedbacks (28) What determines future climate? ∆T = g · ∆cCO2atm g ∆cCO2atm climate sensitivity (function of feedbacks) future atmospheric CO2 concentration ∆cCO2atm = ƒ(E · fair) E ƒair Anthropogenic CO2 emissions airborne fraction (function of carbon system feedbacks) E= Npop · renergy · ICO2 Npop renergy ICO2 Population Energy consumption per capita CO2 intensity of energy source What determines future climate? ∆T = g · ƒ(fair · Npop · renergy · ICO2) physical climate system (feedbacks) bgc climate system (bgc feedbacks) Socio-economic factors (health, education, etc) Economical-political-technical factors Technical/economical factors OUR CHOICE We have a choice! Questionnaire (cont) 7. How do you rank the importance of global climate change vs. these other problems? a. Climate Change (17) b. HIV/Aids (5) c. Malnutrition (29) d. Sanitation and Water (31) e. Migration (2) f. Terrorism (0) Ranking by the Copenhagen Consenus Questionnaire (cont) 8. Do you think we know enough in order to act upon the issue of global warming? a. b. c. d. Science is unsettled, need to do more research before acting (1) Scientific evidence is relatively clear, but we have other priorities (1) Scientific evidence is relatively clear, and we should act even in the presence of other important issues. (12) Scientific evidence is unsettled, but we should act now regardless. (0) Questionnaire (cont) 9. What do you view as the most effective role of scientists in this debate? a. Write peer reviewed articles and rely on the public to pick up the information (1) b. Give public lectures, write essays for the general public (11) c. Get involved in IPCC (2) d. Become a scientific activist (0) Policy versus Politics Policy: Prudence or wisdom in the management affairs or highlevel plan embracing the general goals and acceptable procedures Politics: Art or science of government or art or science of guiding government policies. IPCC mandate: policy guiding but not prescriptive! The role of science and scientists • Public obligation versus academic freedom (curiosity driven research) • Academic standing versus activism • Science policy versus scientific politics Questionnaire (cont) 10. If (physical) climate scientists had another 1 B $ at hand, what would you spend it on? a. Climate observations (1) b. Process studies (6) c. Model development and scenario testing (2) d. Method development (4) e. Something else (please specify) (1) lobbying