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Integrating climate change considerations into sustainable development and poverty alleviation Inger Andersen, Director Sustainable Development Department Middle East and North Africa Region The World Bank Climate Change Impacts on Africa and Mediterranean 2 Climate changes over the last 100 years.. Less rainfall in the Sahel Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987 More rainfall in East Africa …and those projected for the future Percent change in run-off: multi-model average for the winter and summer precipitation (A1B SRES scenario) Punch line: by 2050, reductions of by 20 to 30% in northern, western and southern Africa; most of MENA by 2050; increases of 30-40% in eastern Africa Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature 4 Ecosystems and Agriculture Productivity Could Be Severely Impacted Agriculture contributes about 20-70% of GDP and 70-80% employment Each 1ºC rise in average temperature will reduce dryland farm profits in Africa by nearly 10%. •Reduction in soil fertility •Decreased livestock productivity •Increased incidence of pest attacks •Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons Natural Disasters are on the rise… 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Increase in the annual frequency of large-scale disaster events in Africa since 1985 Distribution of Disasters in SSA Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 6 … and are expected to increase further Millions of people experiencing coastal flooding in North Africa (constant protection in 2080) 35 32.2 30 25.6 Millions on people 25 20 14.2 15 12.0 10 5 5.7 6.2 7.6 0.7 0 0-1°C 1-2°C 2-3°C 3-4°C Temperature increase (°C) High population growth scenario Low population growth scenario Source: Stern report background paper Punch line: between 6 and 25 million people will be exposed to coastal flooding in North Africa under a temperature increase of between 1 -3 degrees 7 The energy and mitigation agenda in the region 8 Energy access is crucial for growth in Africa • Only 24% access to electricity • 28/48 SSA African countries affected by energy crisis Source: World Bank 9 Region’s GHG contributions: far less than its population share Region's Shares in Emissions Population and Economy 20 17.20% 18 16 Percent 14 12 10 8 7.50% 6 3% 4 2 0 Emissions Population GDP (current US$) 10 What is the World Bank doing to help on adaptation and mitigation 11 Integrating adaptation into investment lending World Bank Committments, SDN Network, AFR and MENA Regions, FY02-FY07 (US$ Million) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Transport Energy and Mining Agriculture and Rural Development Water Urban Development Environment Social Development Information/Communications WB lending in climate-sensitive sectors has averaged $3 billion per year; preliminary estimates for the MENA region suggest that 20-30% of that will help countries increase climate change resilience 12 Energy Sector: promoting the access and low carbon agenda MENA and SSA Energy Lending, FY03-07 (US$ Million) Access Low Carbon, plus blended low-carbon & access Oil, gas and coal Over the last 5 FYs, the World Bank has financed projects worth $2.8 billion in the region (71% of the total) to expand access to modern energy and promote low carbon sector development Thermal generation Other energy Transmission and distribution 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Source: World Bank (2007), Clean energy for development Investment framework: Making a difference on climate change - Progress report 1,600 13 Promoting carbon markets in the region 2 1 1 36 World Bank Projects in Portfolio/ Pipeline 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 Land Use/Forestry 2 Hydro 6 Landfills/ Compost 14 Energy efficiency 4 6 Region Carbon Finance Project Status – July 2007 1 1 2 1 9 2 2 Other renewable ERPA Signed 5 36 Total 14 Knowledge generation – Some Regional Level Initiatives • Water resources (2-year program) – River basin focus (Lake Victoria, Eastern Nile, Senegal, Niger, Congo, and Zambezi) – Knowledge base, climate risk management guidance, awareness building) • Sustainable land management (Through TerrAfrica) – Country climate baseline information at relevant scales – Guidance for climate proofing and risk management in SLM Investments – Development and coordination of inter-agency round table on climate proofing SLM • Energy efficiency – Study in North Africa and Middle East to assess benefits of improved energy efficiency and viable policy options 15 Country level analytical work: some examples Morocco: water, agriculture, urban development Yemen, Djibouti: water, agriculture, urban Burkina Faso: Community Based Rural Development Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia: Managing environmental risk Madagascar: Adaptation and Risk management 16 Morocco: downscaling climate models will help develop better estimates of impacts on agriculture Projection of winter precipitation change % change in preciptitation TANGIERS BENI MELLAL MARRAKECH 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 2020 2050 2080 Note: projections obtained through statistical downscaling of HadCM3, B2 SRES scenario 17 Project Example: Climate and Disaster Risk Management Madagascar • Hydro-meteorological risk assessment for agriculture • Cyclone impact modeling • Rice agro-climatic modeling • Updating of infrastructure norms and standards • Vulnerability analysis for drought-prone South • Analysis of historical and projected climate change • Technical assistance and capacity building for local entities 18 Country example: Morocco, water sector WB is working with the government on policy, analysis and investments to reduce climate change impacts World Bank lending in support of the Water Sector in Morocco (US$ Million) Affordable water services 300 for growing municipal demand. Highest impact 250 investments in wastewater collection and treatment 200 150 Bring ag water use to sustainable levels. Use new technologies to increase $/drop and compensate farmers for reduced consumption. Emphasis on public communication 100 Plan water storage, transfer investments for 50 expected future rainfall and demand patterns. 0 Renewed emphasis Portfolio on (FY03-FY07) water allocation within safe consumption limits Ensure some in-stream flows, Pipeline (FY08- FY10) planned aquifer drawdown or management, and manage wastewater discharge 19 Improving the policy and incentive framework • Public sector policies and incentives necessary to: – Reduce regulatory uncertainty and mitigate regulatory risks (e.g., in carbon finance) – Expand equity and debt capital for projects with high investment costs and long lead times – Advance R&D • Public Finance Management to improve both allocation and efficiency • Policy framework (e.g. water, urban, agriculture) can help enhance resilience by providing incentives to diversify away from vulnerable 20 sectors, locations Concluding messages 1. We need to act – – Climate action is critical for development – we can no longer fight poverty without addressing climate change in core development activities Adaptation in Africa could cost 5-10% of GDP, but is still likely to be less than the cost of inaction 2. We need to improve knowledge – – On impacts, to prioritize action On adaptation options, to optimize funds 3. We need to scale up efforts – – – – Adaptation needs exceed current resource flows to Africa Development partners need to help upscale concessional/grant funding Private sector can play important role Policies can help reduce vulnerability 4. World Bank is ready to help on all fronts 21