Download Background for climate negotiations

Background for
climate negotiations
Rules and practices
Content

Science recap

Dirty job

One step backward

Practicalities
Science recap
 “….stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.
 Such a level should be achieved within a time-
frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change, to ensure that food
production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner.”
 The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related
legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may
adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant
provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a
time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change, to ensure that food
production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Environment
Environment
Economy
Society
Society
Economy
Key messages of science (AR4,
Stern)
 Human-induced change is unequivocal
 Faster than expected…
 Impacts generally negative
 Compounding poverty, fragility, inequality
 Warming beyond 2°C = “danger” (EU promoted)
 Prevention is cheaper than cure (globally)
 Early action costs less than inaction
 Stern: 5 to 20 times less (global estimate)
 Pathway to “safety” will knock <3% off global GDP
growth to 2030
 <0.12% per annum
Global average temperature increases above 2°C are
expected to cause significant ecological and social disruption
Scenario A1B
IPCC AR4 worst
case scenarios
Temperature above preindustrial
1º C
2º C
1. Weather
2. Water
3. Food
4.
Ecosystem
5. Social
3º C
4º C
5º C
More intense storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, and
heat waves
Threat to local water
supply as glaciers melt
Changes in water availability,
threatening up to a billion people
Falling crop yields in many developing
regions
Ecosystems
extensively and
irreversibly damaged
Major cities around the world
threatened by sea-level rise
Falling yields in many
developed regions
Many more species
face extinction
More than a billion people may have to migrate – increasing the
risk of conflicts
6. GDP
Loss of GDP in developing countries
SOURCE: Stern Review; IPCC, 4TH Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
Loss of up to 20% of global
GDP
Impacts – evolution of knowledge (2001-2009)
Sea level rise -projection
Dirty job
Projected global temperature increase
Continued global
emission growth
means
1.1ºC - 6.4ºC global
average
temperature
increase during 21st
century
year
Projected and observed fossil fuel emissions
The Risk
Indicator
Emissions
Probability of ecxeeding
2ºC
Intervallu
m
Total CO2
886 Gt CO2
emissio
n
2000–
49
• An emission budget of a trillion tonnes CO2
during the first 50 years of this century.
• Of that budget, we already used up a third
in the first nine years
• At present rates of emissions, we will use
up the remaining two-thirds in another 20
years, by around 2030
Representative
case
8–37%
20%
1,000 Gt CO2
10–42%
25%
1,158 Gt CO2
16–51%
33%
1,437 Gt CO2
29–70%
50%
Total Kyoto 1,356 Gt CO2 eq.
gas
emissi
on
2000–
49
8–37%
20%
1,500 Gt CO2 eq.
10–43%
26%
1,678 Gt CO2 eq
15–51%
33%
2,000 Gt CO2 eq.
29–70%
50%
Current proposals leave us on track to 3 degrees
or more!
Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability
GtCO2e per year
Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm
Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm
Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm
Low range
of proposals
High range
of proposals
Probability
of
temperatur Expected
e increase temperature
under 2˚C increase
15-30%
3.0˚C
40-60%
2.0˚C
70-85%
1.8˚C
Source: IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Catalyst analysis; C-ROADS
Delay in peaking of emissions
The developing country financing need can be met by a combination of
direct and indirect carbon market financing and public finance
Financing needs and sources assuming 25% caps in developed countries, € billion,
annual average 2010-20 rounded to nearest € 5 billion
10-20
65-100
10-15
5-15
55-80
5-20
Could be delivered through:
Could be mobilised through:
•• Government
offset purchases (~ € 5
AAU offset purchases (~ € 5 billion)
potentially increased by market
• billion)
AAU market intervention (€ 0-5 billion)
interventions (€ 0-5 billion)
•• AAU
auctioning (€ 5-30 billion) - as per
AAU auctioning (€ 5-30 billion) - as per
Norwegian proposal
Norwegian proposal
45-50
10-20
10-20
10-25
Mitigation
Adaptation
Total
need
Direct
carbon
markets
Carbon
market
interventions
ETS markets
Source: Project Catalyst analysis
ETS
auction
revenues
Public
finance
Concessional debt
International
transport
levies
Public
fiscal
revenues
One step backward
Per capita fossil fuel CO2 emissions
Today
1750-2007
Interest groups – top 25 footprints
Top 25 in
Population
Turkey
Egypt,
Nigeria,
Vietnam,
Philippines,
Bangladesh,
Ethiopia,
Pakistan
(Taiwan), Netherlands,
Argentina
Top 25 in GDP
USA, China, EU25, Russia, Canada,
India, Japan, Germany,
Rep. Korea,
Brazil, UK, Italy, France,
Australia,
Mexico, Indonesia, Iran,
S. Africa,
Thailand
Spain,
Poland
Myanmar,
D.R.Congo
Saudi Arabia,
Malaysia
Top 25 in
CO2 emissions
(incl. LUCF)
Assessing the problem
Negotiations are driven by science

Growing confidence in IPCC assessments

Caveat: re “Summary for policy-makers”
Motivation to act is highly variable

•

Low spatial correlation between cause and
effect
Large variation in capacity to cope
Many losers - but some short-term winners
Debate of the appropriate
response
Mitigation or Adaptation?
 Mitigation = division,
confrontation
 Vulnerability = unifying condition
 Adaptation = unifying message
 Adaptation first?
Lost in translation?
Responsibility





“common but differentiated
responsibilities”
historical responsibility (equity)
responsibility for the future
national circumstances,“respective
capabilities”
burdens or opportunities
Mitigation strategy:
options
5. Targets


National OR sectoral
Absolute OR intensity
6. Policies


Market-based (top-down) OR
Technology-driven (bottom-up)
7. Vision


11 Mar 2008
Low-hanging fruit (energy efficiency,
reducing deforestation) OR
Low-carbon “future technologies”
23
Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential
(Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: CAIT
% World
emissions
Excl
LUCF
Tons per cap
(tCO2e)
Incl
Excl
Incl
LUCF LUCF LUCF
1950-2000 cumulative
CO2 - % world + T/cap
Intensity
Energy
Excl
LUCF
Energy
Plus LUC
Kt/M$GDP
USA
19.2
24.3
0.70
EU 25
13.2
10.5
0.46
Annex I
48.4
39.3
World
54.2
14.1
13.9
5.9
7.2
3.3
4.9
73.8%
52.6%
456 T/cap 457 T/cap
0.64
122 T/cap 171 T/cap
0.80
27.1%
42 T/cap
0.91
NonAnnex I
43.7
47.6%
103 T/cap
China
13.6
3.9
0.98
India
4.5
1.6
0.67
Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential
(Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: CAIT
% World
emissions
Excl
LUCF
Incl
LUC
F
Tons per cap
(tCO2e)
1950-2000 cumulative
CO2 - % world + T/cap
Intensity
Excl
LUCF
Energy
Excl
LUCF
Incl
LUCF
Energy
Plus LUC
Kt/M$GDP
USA
19.2
24.3
0.70
EU 25
13.2
10.5
0.46
Russian Fed.
5.3
13.0
1.86
Japan
3.8
10.8
0.41
Annex I
48.4
39.3
14.1
13.9
73.8%
456 T/cap
52.6%
457 T/cap
0.64
Non-Annex I
43.7
54.2
3.3
4.9
27.1%
42 T/cap
47.6%
103 T/cap
0.91
China
13.6
3.9
0.98
India
4.5
1.6
0.67
Brazil
2.7
5.3
5.5
13.4
0.76
Indonesia
1.4
7.0
2.4
14.9
0.84
Strategic parameters
• Aim: avoid “dangerous interference”
– Two aspects: Mitigation + Adaptation
• To limit climate change to “safe” (tolerable) levels
• So that the challenge of adaptation is
manageable
• & sustainable devt. and food security not impaired
• Criteria:
– Inclusiveness (=> effective, fair)
– Solidarity
– Urgency ….but…
• Question: “safe”, “tolerable”,
“manageable”
• but for whom?
Shared vision …
differentiated future
• Long-term mitigation goal (50:50)
• Low-carbon future: technology, markets
and finance
– 2020 peak with current technologies
(efficiency)
– New technologies: market share or shared
remedies? (IPRs)
– Market incentives vital but not enough
– Need for green FDI and more public finance
• Differentiated commitments in common
framework of accountability
Practicalities
Main actors: Parties and coalitions

Parties

Coalitions

Non-actors

Lobbyist

NGOs

Media
Major negotiating groups
• The Association of Small Island States: AOSIS
• The European Union
• Umbrella Group, which emerged at Kyoto and
afterwards, brings the JUSSCANNZ countries except
Switzerland together with the Russian Federation and
Ukraine.
• JUSSCANNZ consists of Japan, the Unites States,
Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway and New Zealand
• G-77/China
•Environmental Integrity Group: Swiss, Mexico, Korea
BASIC - Brazil, South Africa, India and China
The Secretariat of the UNFCCC
Negotiating groups – G-77, China
Negotiating groups within the G77 & China
 African Group which consists of 53 African countries, which




is mainly concerned with the impacts of climate change;
Group of Latin America and the Caribbean which has 33
members and is primarily concerned with economic
development opportunities;
Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which consists of 42
members which are the especially vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change; and
Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) the
members of which have a mutual concern regarding the
impact on the oil export revenue as a result of reduced use
of fossil fuel.
Least Developed Countries - countries with the lowest
income
Regional groups
 Africa
 Asia
 Central and Eastern Europe
 Latin America and the Caribbean States
(GRULAC)
 Western Europe and Others (WEOG)
Bodies of the Convention
Five bodies are established by the UNFCCC:
•The supreme body of the UNFCCC is the Conference of Parties (COP)
• which meets every year and
• it is a supreme body of the UNFCCC.
• comprised of all Parties that have ratified the Convention;
• The COP is supported by the Secretariat, Subsidiary Body for
Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for
Implementation (SBI):
• SBSTA provides scientific, technical and methodological advice to
the COP
• SBI assist with the assessment and review of the implementation of
the Convention
• The two bodies (SBSTA and SBI) also work on compliance, mechanisms
and capacity building.
Bodies of the Protocol
 Conference/Meeting of the Parties – similar role
as COP under UNFCCC
• The COP/MOP is supported by the Secretariat,
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical
Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for
Implementation (SBI);
• SBSTA provides scientific, technical and
methodological advice to the COP/MOP and
• the SBI assist with the assessment and review of the
implementation of the Protocol;
 JISC, CDM EB, Compliance committee
Innovations of Bali
 AWG-LCA – something new…
Extension of mandate in Copenhagen
 AWG-KP – post 2012 structure of the Protocol
Extension of mandate in Copenhagen
Negotiating rules

Submissions

Interventions

Informal meetings

Coalition formation

Horse trading

Chairing
Decision making process

Formal rules of engagement

Bodies, bodies and bodies

UNFCCC

Kyoto Protocol

Regional representation

Levels of negotiation

Behind the curtains (off-record)
Meetings – the iceberg
Practicalities

Information sources




Daily Programme
ENB
Screens
Documents



Deciphering abbreviations
When to get what?
What to read, leave aside

Dramatic arrangements

Food and drink, logistics
Daily Programme
 Official meetings
 Informal groups
 Groups other than Convention and Protocol
bodies
 Contact information
 Status report of consideration of agenda items
 Events
Issues – where to get the info?
 Annotated agenda
 Background information on the site of the Convention
(www.unfccc.int)
 Document counter…
 Ask the neighbour, whoever comes….
 The Screen…
 Earth Negotiations Bulletin (www.iisd.ca) (+Eco)
 Daily Programme
Types of documents
FCCC/CP or FCCC/CMP
Provisional or regular documents/agenda
INF.docs
Information documents
Misc.docs
Miscellaneous documents
Add.
Addendum
CRP
Conference room papers
L. Documents
Limited documents
Non-papers
Informal documents
TP
Technical papers
Thank you!
Jozsef Feiler
[email protected]