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FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE Assessing limits of adaptation to climate change and opportunities for resilience to be enhanced Timothy Carter Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 Notice Colleagues are welcome to incorporate these slides into their own presentations, assuming they are correctly acknowledged. However, the authors would also appreciate being informed prior to the extensive use of this material in public meetings. FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE Partnership Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) – Co-ordination Timothy Carter, Raimo Virkkala, Olga Mashkina, Suvi Borgström, Stefan Fronzek, Risto Heikkinen, Janne Heliölä, Aino Inkinen, Ismo Lahtinen,, Hanna Mela, Nina Pirttioja, Juha Pöyry, Anna Tainio Helsinki University, Institute of Behavioral Sciences (HU) Reijo Miettinen, Sami Paavola Jyväskylä University Department of Social Sciences and Philosophy (JYU) Marja Järvelä, Ari Paloviita and Antti Puupponen MTT Agrifood Research Finland (MTT) Helena Kahiluoto, Heikki Lehtonen, Sari Himanen, Xing Liu, Hanna Mäkinen,Taru Palosuo, Yulia Pavlova, Karoliina Rimhanen, Reimund Rötter University of Eastern Finland, Department of Law (UEF) Tapio Määttä, Suvi Borgström, Kati Kulovesi, Eugenia Recio, Leila Suvantola FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 Hypothesis The capacity to adapt climate-sensitive systems to climate change is limited, and may be insufficient to cope with some plausible projections of the rate and magnitude of change during the 21st century. The hypothesis is being tested in case studies on aspects of two primary ecosystem services: agrifood systems and biodiversity, with linkages between the two also being examined FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE Menu WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 Work Package 1: Framing, methods and tools Team • Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek, Aino Inkinen, Hanna Mela, Nina Pirttioja (SYKE Climate Change Programme) • All partners FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 Work Package 1: Framing, methods and tools Task 1.1: Selection of methods and tools and representation of uncertainties • The overall methodology • Models (e.g. crop models, species models, economic models) • Uncertainties (possible sub-group) Task 1.2: Characterisation of the future • A core set of model-based climate scenarios for Finland during the 21st century (including new scenarios?) • Probabilistic projections • Scenarios for other environmental and socio-economic variables of importance Task 1.3: Stakeholder recruitment, meetings and workshops • Steering Group (SG) • Stakeholder representatives • Project meetings Task 1.4: Communication and dissemination of results • • • • • Web site Terminology Meetings and seminars Peer-reviewed and popular reports/publications Web interface for mapped results Mean annual temperature change in Finland relative to 1971-2000 (°C) 9 8 Mean annual temperatures in Finland 7 95th percentile 6 A2 emissions 5 A1B emissions 4 3 B1 emissions 2 5th percentile 1 0 -1 Observed Model projections (ISTO) -2 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 9 8 7 95th percentile 6 A2 emissions 5 A1B emissions 4 3 B1 emissions 2 5th percentile 1 0 -1 -2 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Mean annual temperature change in Finland relative to 1971-2000 (°C) The effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation in relation to warming in Finland (schematic – adapted from Jones, 2004) 9 Observed mean annual temperatures in Finland Effectiveness of mitigation in reducing climate change and hence impacts 8 7 5th and 95th percentiles of projected temperature change for Finland from climate models for B1, A1B and A2 emissions Effectiveness of future adaptation in coping with climate change and reducing impacts 6 Supplementary question 2 5 How effectively will mitigation reduce future impacts of climate change? 4 Question 1 (Work Packages 2A/B) How well equipped are we to adapt to rapid climate change? Supplementary question 3 3 What residual impacts cannot be mitigated or adapted to? 2 Question 2 (Work Packages 3A/B) 1 How effective are current adaptive measures for coping with ongoing climate change? 0 Question 3 (Work Package 4) Supplementary question 1 -1 How can current adaptive capacity be enhanced to cope with the future challenges of climate change? What can we learn about adaptation to historical climate? -2 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Mean annual temperature change in Finland relative to 1971-2000 (°C) The effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation in relation to warming in Finland (schematic – adapted from Jones, 2004) 9 Observed mean annual temperatures in Finland Effectiveness of mitigation in reducing climate change and hence impacts 8 7 5th and 95th percentiles of projected temperature change for Finland from climate models for B1, A1B and A2 emissions Effectiveness of future adaptation in coping with climate change and reducing impacts 6 Supplementary question 2 5 How effectively will mitigation reduce future impacts of climate change? 4 Question 1 (Work Packages 2A/B) How well equipped are we to adapt to rapid climate change? Supplementary question 3 3 What residual impacts cannot be mitigated or adapted to? 2 Question 2 (Work Packages 3A/B) 1 How effective are current adaptive measures for coping with ongoing climate change? 0 Question 3 (Work Package 4) Supplementary question 1 -1 How can current adaptive capacity be enhanced to cope with the future challenges of climate change? What can we learn about adaptation to historical climate? -2 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE poster cluster WP1 HY, JYU, MTT/P A-LA-CARTE Menu WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2A: Climate Adaptation and Resilience in Food Supply Chains Team • Marja Järvelä, Ari Paloviita and Antti Puupponen (Department of Social Sciences & Philosophy, Jyväskylä University) • Helena Kahiluoto, Hanna Mäkinen, Karoliina Rimhanen (MTT Plant Production) • Reijo Miettinen, Sami Paavola (Helsinki University, Institute of Behavioral Sciences) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2A: Climate Adaptation and Resilience in Food Supply Chains Approach • Mixed-methods (quantitative and qualitative) for exploring perceptions on vulnerability, climate adaptation and resilience in Finnish food supply chains • On-line survey conducted in the autumn of 2011 • Population: all food enterprises in Central Finland, Southern Savo and Pirkanmaa (n=551) • 18 interviews conducted in 2012 and 2013 • Food enterprises (9), professional associations (5), farmers (1) and retailers (3) in the three regions FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2A: Climate Adaptation and Resilience in Food Supply Chains Conclusions • Theoretical implications • Ecological resilience needs economic (€) and social (e.g. well-being) counterparts in order to change human behaviour > change to adapt to climate change • What do direct climatic impacts mean indirectly in society/economy through supplier relationships, prices and food consumption? • Managerial implications • Adaptation strategies should shift from reactive/anticipatory strategies towards planned/pro-active adaptation strategies at supply chain level • Relationships in food supply chains are crucial for resilience FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE poster cluster A-LA-CARTE Menu WP2A JYU WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 3A: Assessment of impacts and adaptation for agrifood systems Team: • Heikki Lehtonen, Xing Liu, Yulia Pavlova (MTT Economics) • Reimund Rötter, Taru Palosuo (MTT Plant Production) • Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek, Nina Pirttioja (SYKE) Approach: • Integrates crop growth and economic models to evaluate impacts under a range of plausible future conditions with explicit accounting for risk behaviour • Potential adaptation options analysed at different levels (soilcrop-farm-sector) in model simulations • Farm and regional level land use results feed into WP 3B FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 3A: Modelling framework Climate scenarios Crop and variety information Soil data Agronomic practices Field level Plant-soil models Farm level Static and dynamic farm level models Market and policy drivers Sector level Dynamic regional sector model Environmental and economic impacts and land-use MIROC 3_2 Medres A1B 1971-2000 Sowing date deviation (relative to May 1st) Rain 3-7 weeks after sowing (early drought stress) No. of days with Tmax >=28°C around heading (specific heat stress) Temperature sum accumulation rate per day at grain filling (yield potential reduction risk) Source: Rötter et al. (submitted) 1971-2000 1971-2000 1971-2000 FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 Simulated spring barley yields at Jokioinen and Ruukki for historical weather (1970-2008) and projected for 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 (solid lines). Pink solid lines are mean regional yields of the farmers at surrounding rural centre areas. Source: Palosuo et al. (in prep.) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 Simulated land use (% of the farmland available) over a 20 yearperiod in cases of low and high yield loss (penalty) due to monocultural cultivation (and e.g. low and high pest pressure), under risk averse and risk neutral economic behaviour Risk averse Risk neutral Low yield loss High yield loss Source: Lehtonen et al. (in prep.) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE poster cluster A-LA-CARTE Menu WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners WP3A MTT/E, MTT/P Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP3A SYKE/C, MTT/P WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 3B: Boreal protected area network as an adaptation means to preserve avian biodiversity in a changing climate Team • Raimo Virkkala, Risto Heikkinen, Janne Heliölä, Juha Pöyry (SYKE Natural Environment Centre) • Olga Mashkina, Suvi Borgström, Anna Tainio (SYKE Environmental Policy Centre) • Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek (SYKE Climate Change Programme) • Tapio Määttä, Kati Kulovesi, Eugenia Recio (Department of Law, University of Eastern Finland) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 3B: Boreal protected area network as an adaptation means to preserve avian biodiversity in a changing climate Background • climate is essential in defining species ranges • bioclimatic envelope modelling is applied • in order to adapt with the changing climate: • range may remain unchanged or become enlarged, or • species move polewards and altitudinally with warming climate • some limitations to adaptation • habitat fragmentation restricts distributional change • ultimate physical barriers: seas and mountains • poor dispersal, susceptibility to increased land use • decrease in range size • a protected area network is an important means of facilitating adaptation to climate change FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 3B: Boreal protected area network as an adaptation means to preserve avian biodiversity in a changing climate Results: observed changes (1981-1999 to 2000-2009) • Southern species had increased significantly in protected areas by 29% • Northern species had decreased significantly in PAs by 21% • Observed changes in bird populations in PAs are in line with the predictions of climate change, such as poleward range shift of species Source: Virkkala and Rajasärkkä (2011) Change in probability of occurrence of species based on climate change scenarios Ensemble scenario (19 General Circulation Models, A1B scenario, IPCC 2007) Forest species Mire species Marshland species N = 51 N = 21 N = 19 Protected squares All species/ Ensemble scenario Southern boreal Middle boreal Northern boreal Protected squares -8,9% -5,2% -4,2% Unprotected squares -9,0% -6,3% -7,3% The probability of occurrence of all species (except marshland birds) decreased according to all scenarios (Ensemble, A2, B1). The decline was greatest in southern boreal and smallest in northern boreal zones. Unprotected squares The decline was slightly greater in unprotected than in protected areas for species of forests, mires and mountain habitats. Source: Virkkala et al. (2013) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation for biodiversity Team • Tapio Määttä, Kati Kulovesi, Eugenia Recio (Department of Law, University of Eastern Finland) • Suvi Borgström (SYKE, Environmental Policy Centre) Source: Borgström (2012) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation for biodiversity Objectives • Assess the limits, possibilities and changes required in nature conservation legislation in the light of adaptation to climate change • Identify and assess the potentiality of policy instruments for promoting biodiversity conservation measures in changing climate (e.g. increased coverage of protected areas, increasing connectivity, restoration of ecosystems, assisted migration) Approach • Legal dogmatic approach and regulation theory • EU Birds and Habitats Directives • Nature Conservation Act Source: Borgström (2012) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation for biodiversity Conclusions • Comprehensive shift in conservation law required: • From preservationism to more flexible and dynamic conservation orientation that looks from the past towards a transition to the future • From negative bans and restrictions to active obligations (restoration of degredated ecosystems, assisted migration) • Need for a broader array of instruments, ranging from “hard” prescriptive mandates to “soft” incentive- and information based tools • Governance institutions that work at different spatio-temporal scales needed Source: Borgström (2012) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE poster cluster WP2B/3B UEF, SYKE/E A-LA-CARTE Menu WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2/3: Cross-cutting analysis: implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation of semi-natural grasslands Team • Raimo Virkkala, Risto Heikkinen, Janne Heliölä, Juha Pöyry (SYKE Natural Environment Centre) • Olga Mashkina, Anna Tainio (SYKE Environmental Policy Centre) • Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek (SYKE Climate Change Programme) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 2/3: Cross-cutting analysis: implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation of semi-natural grasslands Approach • Bioclimatic envelope modelling for butterfly species • Farmer survey on attitudes to nature conservation • Economic assessment of cost-effectiveness of conservation measures for butterfly habitats • Modelling of land use change (including grassland) FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE poster cluster A-LA-CARTE Menu WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy WP3B/3A SYKE/P, SYKE/E FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Team • Helena Kahiluoto, Sari Himanen, Miia Kuisma, Hanna Mäkinen, Karoliina Rimhanen (MTT Plant Production) • All partners FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Approach • Analysis of farm level diversity (e.g. cultivar choice) with key stakeholders (e.g. breeders, farmers, industry) • Promoting adaptive capacity through dialogue within food supply networks FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE poster cluster A-LA-CARTE Menu WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners WP4/2A MTT/P, HY, JYU MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE poster cluster WP2B/3B UEF, SYKE/E WP1 HY, JYU, MTT/P A-LA-CARTE Menu WP2A JYU WP3A MTT/E, MTT/P WP 1: Framing, methods and tools Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty SYKE/C (Carter), All partners Case Study A Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to manage climate-related risks Case Study B Biodiversity: implications of climate change and options for conservation WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical limits to adaptation Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and management, national economy MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot analysis; land acquisition economic assessment SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social Sciences & Philosophy MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences WP 4: Evaluating and communicating adaptation options for enhancing resilience Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners MTT/E – Economics MTT/P – Plant Production SYKE/C – Climate Change SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity SYKE/P – Environmental Policy WP3B/3A SYKE/P, SYKE/E WP3A SYKE/C, MTT/P WP4/2A MTT/P, HY, JYU FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE dissemination Publications FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE dissemination FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE Presentations 3.3.4 Boreal protected area network as an adaptation means to preserve avian biodiversity in a changing climate Raimo Virkkala 4.3.2 Modelling interactions of climate, crop management and phenology and their effect on barley yields in Finland (1971-2010) Reimund Rötter 4.3.4 New 30-year time series of agroclimatic indicators for present and future climate as a basis for assessing different adaptation strategies for crop production in Finland Jukka Höhn 5.3.3 Diversification as a means to enhance resilience of agrifood systems Helena Kahiluoto 5.3.4 Probabilistic assessment of crop adaptation options under a changing climate Nina Pirttioja Posters P43 A survey study on nature conservation in semi-natural grasslands and forests in a changing climate Anna Tainio P44 Perceptions on Resilience in Finnish Food Supply Chains Antti Puupponen P22 Farmers’ perceptions on climate change: Information needs and barriers for implying mitigation and proactive adaptation Hanna Mäkinen FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 A-LA-CARTE: Next steps Meetings • A full consortium meeting will be held in autumn 2013 • A number of sectoral stakeholders will be invited – opportunity to discuss acceptable risk and thresholds Web site • Will be updated when SYKE's new web system is in place Publications • A proposal for a book on climate adaptation and food supply chain management (WP 2A) to be submitted to Routledge • Special Issue of a journal is under consideration FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 Almost done .... FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013 IPCC Working Group II Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Government and Expert Review IPCC Expert reviewers access draft chapters at: [email protected] Finnish government reviewers access draft chapters at: [email protected] Seminar: Wednesday 8 May 2013, SYKE