Download Presentation 16 Apr 2013

FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE
Assessing limits of adaptation to climate change
and opportunities for resilience to be enhanced
Timothy Carter
Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
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FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE Partnership
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) – Co-ordination
Timothy Carter, Raimo Virkkala, Olga Mashkina, Suvi
Borgström, Stefan Fronzek, Risto Heikkinen, Janne
Heliölä, Aino Inkinen, Ismo Lahtinen,, Hanna Mela, Nina
Pirttioja, Juha Pöyry, Anna Tainio
Helsinki University, Institute of Behavioral Sciences (HU)
Reijo Miettinen, Sami Paavola
Jyväskylä University
Department of Social Sciences and Philosophy (JYU)
Marja Järvelä, Ari Paloviita and Antti Puupponen
MTT Agrifood Research Finland (MTT)
Helena Kahiluoto, Heikki Lehtonen, Sari Himanen, Xing
Liu, Hanna Mäkinen,Taru Palosuo, Yulia Pavlova,
Karoliina Rimhanen, Reimund Rötter
University of Eastern Finland, Department of Law (UEF)
Tapio Määttä, Suvi Borgström, Kati Kulovesi, Eugenia
Recio, Leila Suvantola
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
Hypothesis
The capacity to adapt climate-sensitive systems to
climate change is limited, and may be insufficient to
cope with some plausible projections of the rate and
magnitude of change during the 21st century.
The hypothesis is being tested in case studies on
aspects of two primary ecosystem services: agrifood
systems and biodiversity, with linkages between the
two also being examined
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
Work Package 1: Framing, methods and tools
Team
•
Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek, Aino Inkinen, Hanna Mela, Nina Pirttioja (SYKE
Climate Change Programme)
•
All partners
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
Work Package 1: Framing, methods and tools
Task 1.1: Selection of methods and tools and representation of
uncertainties
• The overall methodology
• Models (e.g. crop models, species models, economic models)
• Uncertainties (possible sub-group)
Task 1.2: Characterisation of the future
• A core set of model-based climate scenarios for Finland during the 21st
century (including new scenarios?)
• Probabilistic projections
• Scenarios for other environmental and socio-economic variables of
importance
Task 1.3: Stakeholder recruitment, meetings and workshops
• Steering Group (SG)
• Stakeholder representatives
• Project meetings
Task 1.4: Communication and dissemination of results
•
•
•
•
•
Web site
Terminology
Meetings and seminars
Peer-reviewed and popular reports/publications
Web interface for mapped results
Mean annual temperature change in Finland relative to 1971-2000 (°C)
9
8
Mean annual temperatures in Finland
7
95th percentile
6
A2 emissions
5
A1B emissions
4
3
B1 emissions
2
5th percentile
1
0
-1
Observed
Model projections (ISTO)
-2
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
9
8
7
95th percentile
6
A2 emissions
5
A1B emissions
4
3
B1 emissions
2
5th percentile
1
0
-1
-2
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Mean annual temperature change in Finland relative to 1971-2000 (°C)
The effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation in relation to
warming in Finland (schematic – adapted from Jones, 2004)
9
Observed mean annual
temperatures in Finland
Effectiveness of mitigation in reducing
climate change and hence impacts
8
7
5th and 95th percentiles
of projected temperature
change for Finland from
climate models for B1,
A1B and A2 emissions
Effectiveness of future adaptation in coping
with climate change and reducing impacts
6
Supplementary question 2
5
How effectively will mitigation reduce
future impacts of climate change?
4
Question 1 (Work Packages 2A/B)
How well equipped are we to adapt
to rapid climate change?
Supplementary question 3
3
What residual impacts cannot
be mitigated or adapted to?
2
Question 2 (Work Packages 3A/B)
1
How effective are current adaptive
measures for coping with ongoing
climate change?
0
Question 3 (Work Package 4)
Supplementary question 1
-1
How can current adaptive capacity
be enhanced to cope with the future
challenges of climate change?
What can we learn about
adaptation to historical climate?
-2
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Mean annual temperature change in Finland relative to 1971-2000 (°C)
The effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation in relation to
warming in Finland (schematic – adapted from Jones, 2004)
9
Observed mean annual
temperatures in Finland
Effectiveness of mitigation in reducing
climate change and hence impacts
8
7
5th and 95th percentiles
of projected temperature
change for Finland from
climate models for B1,
A1B and A2 emissions
Effectiveness of future adaptation in coping
with climate change and reducing impacts
6
Supplementary question 2
5
How effectively will mitigation reduce
future impacts of climate change?
4
Question 1 (Work Packages 2A/B)
How well equipped are we to adapt
to rapid climate change?
Supplementary question 3
3
What residual impacts cannot
be mitigated or adapted to?
2
Question 2 (Work Packages 3A/B)
1
How effective are current adaptive
measures for coping with ongoing
climate change?
0
Question 3 (Work Package 4)
Supplementary question 1
-1
How can current adaptive capacity
be enhanced to cope with the future
challenges of climate change?
What can we learn about
adaptation to historical climate?
-2
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE poster cluster
WP1
HY, JYU, MTT/P
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2A: Climate Adaptation and Resilience
in Food Supply Chains
Team
•
Marja Järvelä, Ari Paloviita and Antti Puupponen (Department of Social
Sciences & Philosophy, Jyväskylä University)
•
Helena Kahiluoto, Hanna Mäkinen, Karoliina Rimhanen (MTT Plant
Production)
•
Reijo Miettinen, Sami Paavola (Helsinki University, Institute of
Behavioral Sciences)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2A: Climate Adaptation and Resilience
in Food Supply Chains
Approach
• Mixed-methods (quantitative and qualitative) for exploring
perceptions on vulnerability, climate adaptation and resilience
in Finnish food supply chains
• On-line survey conducted in the autumn of 2011
• Population: all food enterprises in Central Finland, Southern
Savo and Pirkanmaa (n=551)
• 18 interviews conducted in 2012 and 2013
•
Food enterprises (9), professional associations (5), farmers (1) and
retailers (3) in the three regions
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2A: Climate Adaptation and Resilience
in Food Supply Chains
Conclusions
• Theoretical implications
•
Ecological resilience needs economic (€) and social (e.g. well-being)
counterparts in order to change human behaviour > change to adapt to
climate change
•
What do direct climatic impacts mean indirectly in society/economy
through supplier relationships, prices and food consumption?
• Managerial implications
•
Adaptation strategies should shift from reactive/anticipatory strategies
towards planned/pro-active adaptation strategies at supply chain level
•
Relationships in food supply chains are crucial for resilience
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE poster cluster
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP2A
JYU
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 3A: Assessment of impacts and
adaptation for agrifood systems
Team:
•
Heikki Lehtonen, Xing Liu, Yulia Pavlova (MTT Economics)
•
Reimund Rötter, Taru Palosuo (MTT Plant Production)
•
Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek, Nina Pirttioja (SYKE)
Approach:
• Integrates crop growth and economic models to evaluate
impacts under a range of plausible future conditions with
explicit accounting for risk behaviour
• Potential adaptation options analysed at different levels (soilcrop-farm-sector) in model simulations
• Farm and regional level land use results feed into WP 3B
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 3A: Modelling framework
Climate scenarios
Crop and variety information
Soil data
Agronomic practices
Field level
Plant-soil models
Farm level
Static and dynamic farm level models
Market and policy drivers
Sector level
Dynamic regional sector model
Environmental and economic impacts
and land-use
MIROC 3_2
Medres A1B
1971-2000
Sowing date
deviation (relative to
May 1st)
Rain 3-7 weeks
after sowing
(early drought
stress)
No. of days with
Tmax >=28°C
around heading
(specific heat
stress)
Temperature sum
accumulation rate per
day at grain filling
(yield potential
reduction risk)
Source: Rötter et al. (submitted)
1971-2000
1971-2000
1971-2000
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
Simulated spring barley yields at Jokioinen and Ruukki for
historical weather (1970-2008) and projected for 2011-2040 and
2041-2070 (solid lines). Pink solid lines are mean regional
yields of the farmers at surrounding rural centre areas.
Source: Palosuo et al. (in prep.)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
Simulated land use (% of the farmland available) over a 20 yearperiod in cases of low and high yield loss (penalty) due to
monocultural cultivation (and e.g. low and high pest pressure),
under risk averse and risk neutral economic behaviour
Risk averse
Risk neutral
Low
yield
loss
High
yield
loss
Source: Lehtonen et al. (in prep.)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE poster cluster
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
WP3A
MTT/E, MTT/P
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP3A
SYKE/C, MTT/P
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 3B: Boreal protected area network as an
adaptation means to preserve avian
biodiversity in a changing climate
Team
•
Raimo Virkkala, Risto Heikkinen, Janne Heliölä, Juha Pöyry (SYKE Natural
Environment Centre)
•
Olga Mashkina, Suvi Borgström, Anna Tainio (SYKE Environmental Policy
Centre)
•
Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek (SYKE Climate Change Programme)
•
Tapio Määttä, Kati Kulovesi, Eugenia Recio (Department of Law, University
of Eastern Finland)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 3B: Boreal protected area network as an
adaptation means to preserve avian
biodiversity in a changing climate
Background
• climate is essential in defining species ranges
•
bioclimatic envelope modelling is applied
• in order to adapt with the changing climate:
•
range may remain unchanged or become enlarged, or
•
species move polewards and altitudinally with warming climate
• some limitations to adaptation
•
habitat fragmentation restricts distributional change
•
ultimate physical barriers: seas and mountains
•
poor dispersal, susceptibility to increased land use
•
decrease in range size
• a protected area network is an important means of
facilitating adaptation to climate change
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 3B: Boreal protected area network as an
adaptation means to preserve avian
biodiversity in a changing climate
Results: observed changes
(1981-1999 to 2000-2009)
• Southern species had increased
significantly in protected areas
by 29%
• Northern species had decreased
significantly in PAs by 21%
• Observed changes in bird
populations in PAs are in line
with the predictions of climate
change, such as poleward range
shift of species
Source: Virkkala and Rajasärkkä (2011)
Change in probability of occurrence of species
based on climate change scenarios
Ensemble scenario (19 General Circulation
Models, A1B scenario, IPCC 2007)
Forest species Mire species Marshland species
N = 51
N = 21
N = 19
Protected
squares
All species/
Ensemble
scenario
Southern
boreal
Middle
boreal
Northern
boreal
Protected
squares
-8,9%
-5,2% -4,2%
Unprotected
squares
-9,0%
-6,3% -7,3%
The probability of occurrence of all
species (except marshland birds)
decreased according to all scenarios
(Ensemble, A2, B1).
The decline was greatest in southern
boreal and smallest in northern boreal
zones.
Unprotected
squares
The decline was slightly greater in
unprotected than in protected areas for
species of forests, mires and mountain
habitats.
Source: Virkkala et al. (2013)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation for biodiversity
Team
•
Tapio Määttä, Kati Kulovesi, Eugenia Recio (Department of Law, University of
Eastern Finland)
•
Suvi Borgström (SYKE, Environmental Policy Centre)
Source: Borgström (2012)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation for biodiversity
Objectives
• Assess the limits, possibilities and changes required in
nature conservation legislation in the light of adaptation to
climate change
• Identify and assess the potentiality of policy instruments for
promoting biodiversity conservation measures in changing
climate (e.g. increased coverage of protected areas, increasing
connectivity, restoration of ecosystems, assisted migration)
Approach
• Legal dogmatic approach and regulation theory
•
EU Birds and Habitats Directives
•
Nature Conservation Act
Source: Borgström (2012)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation for biodiversity
Conclusions
• Comprehensive shift in conservation law required:
•
From preservationism to more flexible and dynamic conservation
orientation that looks from the past towards a transition to the future
•
From negative bans and restrictions to active obligations (restoration of
degredated ecosystems, assisted migration)
•
Need for a broader array of instruments, ranging from “hard” prescriptive
mandates to “soft” incentive- and information based tools
•
Governance institutions that work at different spatio-temporal scales
needed
Source: Borgström (2012)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE poster cluster
WP2B/3B
UEF, SYKE/E
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2/3: Cross-cutting analysis: implications
of climate change for biodiversity
conservation of semi-natural grasslands
Team
•
Raimo Virkkala, Risto Heikkinen, Janne Heliölä, Juha Pöyry (SYKE
Natural Environment Centre)
•
Olga Mashkina, Anna Tainio (SYKE Environmental Policy Centre)
•
Timothy Carter, Stefan Fronzek (SYKE Climate Change Programme)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 2/3: Cross-cutting analysis: implications
of climate change for biodiversity
conservation of semi-natural grasslands
Approach
• Bioclimatic envelope modelling for butterfly species
• Farmer survey on attitudes to nature conservation
• Economic assessment of cost-effectiveness of conservation
measures for butterfly habitats
• Modelling of land use change (including grassland)
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE poster cluster
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
WP3B/3A
SYKE/P, SYKE/E
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Team
•
Helena Kahiluoto, Sari Himanen, Miia Kuisma, Hanna Mäkinen, Karoliina
Rimhanen (MTT Plant Production)
•
All partners
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Approach
• Analysis of farm level diversity (e.g. cultivar choice) with key
stakeholders (e.g. breeders, farmers, industry)
• Promoting adaptive capacity through dialogue within food
supply networks
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE poster cluster
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
WP4/2A
MTT/P, HY, JYU
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE poster cluster
WP2B/3B
UEF, SYKE/E
WP1
HY, JYU, MTT/P
A-LA-CARTE Menu
WP2A
JYU
WP3A
MTT/E, MTT/P
WP 1: Framing, methods and tools
Overall methodology; model/tool selection; data
collection; scenarios; treatment of uncertainty
SYKE/C (Carter), All partners
Case Study A
Agrifood systems: enhancing resilience to
manage climate-related risks
Case Study B
Biodiversity: implications of climate change and
options for conservation
WP 2A: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Technology/innovation; policy; farm-level diversity
JYU (Järvelä), MTT/P, MTT/E, UH, SYKE/P
WP 2B: Adaptive capacity and theoretical
limits to adaptation
Natural migration rate; legal limits on conservation
UEF (Määttä), SYKE/E, SYKE/P
WP 3A: Impacts and adaptation
Food system shocks; farm-level productivity and
management, national economy
MTT/E (Lehtonen), MTT/P, SYKE/C
WP 3B: Impacts and adaptation
Species scenario mapping; habitat hot spot
analysis; land acquisition economic assessment
SYKE/E (Virkkala), SYKE/P, SYKE/C
JYU: Jyväskylä Univ., Dept. of Social
Sciences & Philosophy
MTT: Agrif ood Research Finland
SYKE: Finnish Environment Institute
UEF: Univ. Eastern Finland, Dept. of Law
UH: Univ. Helsinki, Inst. Behavioral Sciences
WP 4: Evaluating and communicating
adaptation options for enhancing resilience
Policy analysis; stakeholder workshop; reporting
MTT/P(Kahiluoto), All partners
MTT/E – Economics
MTT/P – Plant Production
SYKE/C – Climate Change
SYKE/E – Ecosystems & Biodiversity
SYKE/P – Environmental Policy
WP3B/3A
SYKE/P, SYKE/E
WP3A
SYKE/C, MTT/P
WP4/2A
MTT/P, HY, JYU
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE dissemination
Publications
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE dissemination
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE Presentations
3.3.4 Boreal protected area network as an adaptation means to preserve avian biodiversity in a changing climate
Raimo Virkkala
4.3.2 Modelling interactions of climate, crop management and phenology and their effect on barley yields in Finland
(1971-2010)
Reimund Rötter
4.3.4 New 30-year time series of agroclimatic indicators for present and future climate as a basis for assessing
different adaptation strategies for crop production in Finland
Jukka Höhn
5.3.3 Diversification as a means to enhance resilience of agrifood systems
Helena Kahiluoto
5.3.4 Probabilistic assessment of crop adaptation options under a changing climate
Nina Pirttioja
Posters
P43 A survey study on nature conservation in semi-natural grasslands and forests in a changing climate
Anna Tainio
P44 Perceptions on Resilience in Finnish Food Supply Chains
Antti Puupponen
P22 Farmers’ perceptions on climate change: Information needs and barriers for implying mitigation and proactive
adaptation
Hanna Mäkinen
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
A-LA-CARTE: Next steps
Meetings
• A full consortium meeting will be held in autumn 2013
• A number of sectoral stakeholders will be invited –
opportunity to discuss acceptable risk and thresholds
Web site
• Will be updated when SYKE's new web system is in place
Publications
• A proposal for a book on climate adaptation and food supply
chain management (WP 2A) to be submitted to Routledge
• Special Issue of a journal is under consideration
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
Almost done ....
FICCA midway seminar, Hilton Helsinki Strand, 16.4.2013
IPCC Working Group II Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Government and Expert Review
IPCC
Expert reviewers access draft chapters at:
[email protected]
Finnish government reviewers access
draft chapters at: [email protected]
Seminar: Wednesday 8 May 2013, SYKE