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Download The Dependancy of Biomass Production on Climate Change
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THE DEPENDENCY OF BIOMASS PRODUCTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Sponsor of the Research: MOL Inc. (Division of Sustainable Development & Health Protection, Safety Engineering, and Environment Protection) Project leader: Prof. Dr. Michael Palocz-Andresen Participating researcher: Dóra Szalay environment protection engineer MSc University of West-Hungary, Faculty of Forestry, Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences 9400 Sopron, Cházár András tér l. The Aim of the Research, Achievable Results Hungary’s climate will have an ever increasing Mediterranean character according to climate scenarios. Climate will be hotter, the amount of precipitation will decline. The unequal pattern of rainfall and the recurring phenomenon of droughts might cause particularly severe problems. Changes may have serious impacts on biomass production, may strongly influence the biomass utilization targeted by the EU until 2020, also may endanger domestic economy. The EU has set the goal of 13 % biomass use in Hungary, and the share of biomass based products – in heat equivalent – should be 10 % of the entire fuel turnover. The aim of the research was to create such climate scenarios until 2100 that would help to make an adaptable strategy to the expected changes. Beside climate change we must consider energy and raw material markets at home and abroad. The increasing competition between agriculture and biomass production, the rising prices, the expected supply troubles, increasing international tensions and the world-wide economic crisis all require that native fuel production based on biomass should be ready for changes with the help of an in-depth analysis. To achieve this goal it is necessary to examine the biomass production programmes of neighbouring countries and their export-import potentials. It is appropriate to widen the discussion with the examination of: the quality and capacity of synthetic fuel production technologies, the improvement of climate compatible methods of biomass production the introduction of plants breeds that are more resistant to climate change impacts, the analysis of process methods of organic based products and the financial impacts.