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MET 112 MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 10 Climate Change Impacts: Present and Future Outline: Dr. Eugene Cordero Fingerprints of climate change Future impacts 1 Climate Change Impacts MET 112 What signals would we expect from a warmer world? – Higher average temperature – Higher maximum temperatures – Higher minimum temperatures – More precipitation – Higher sea level What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century? 5 Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a MET 112 widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures – – – – – Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding Glaciers melting Arctic and Antarctic warming Increases in sea level 7 Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types MET 112 of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming. Spreading disease (i.e. mosquito carrying) Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population changes Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires 9 Impacts over the last 100 years Fingerprints of climate change Indicators of Climate Change Ocean warming Stratosphere cooling Troposphere warming Temperature trends MET 112 Troposphere (0 - ~ 10km) Stratosphere (10 – 50 km) Surface temperatures are warming – (Certain) Middle troposphere is also warming (Very likely) – Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now that seemed to be due to instrument error. Upper atmosphere is cooling (Certain) – Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere. 14 Water vapor feedback Recall how the water vapor feedback works – Increase in temp – Increase evaporation – Increase in water vapor in atmosphere Water vapor is a greenhouse gas – Increase in greenhouse effect – Further warming (positive feedback) Current models suggest that the water vapor feedback is responsible for about the same amount of warming as warming from increases in CO2. The importance of this feedback is still being investigated. MET 112 18 Global mean surface temperatures have increased MET 112 19 The Land and Oceans have both warmed MET 112 21 Precipitation patterns have changed MET 112 23 Svalbard, Norway (79N) ` Arctic Sea Level rise MET 112 Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people due to – sea level rise and heavy rainfall events Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter – – very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity 27 Recent Sea Level Changes MET 112 28 Branching coral Brain coral Increase in coral bleaching events: due to warmer ocean temperatures http://www.climatehotmap.org/ Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Projected changes during the 21st century Examples of impacts • Higher maximum temperatures; • Increased mortality in old people more hot days and heatwaves in urban areas over nearly all land areas (very • Damage to crops likely) • Heat stress on livestock • Higher minimum temperatures; • Extended range of pests and fewer cold days frost days and diseases cold spells over nearly all land • Loss of some crop/fruit areas (very likely) slides, mudslides, damage to • more intense precipitation events • Land property and increased insurance over many areas (very likely) costs • increased summer drying over • Reduced rangeland productivity, most mid-latitude continental increased wildfires, decreased interiors and associated risk of hydropower drought (likely) • increase in tropical cyclone peak • Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely) Future impacts due to climate change More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected MET 112 38 As a result of warming, plant species would be expected to migrate 84% 5% 0% 0% 0% in th No e rt So h ut in So he th ut rn e No h H in em rth t So he i.. er . ut n No H h em rth in er th i.. . n e H So em ut i.. he . To rn H hi em gh ... er To al t lo itu w de er s al tit ud es 1 an d 6 2 an d 5 North in the Southern Hemisphere North in the Northern Hemisphere South in the Northern Hemisphere South in the Southern Hemisphere To higher altitudes 11% To lower altitudes 0% 0% 1 and 6 2 and 5 No rt h 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. MET 112 39 Where would you expect to see the strongest evidence of climate change? Tropical latitudes Midlatitude deserts Midlatitude oceans High latitudes High altitude mountains 54% 19% 14% 11% m ou itu d la t e al tit ud ig h H nt ai ns es s an ig h H de oc e er ts de s la tit u de M id la tit u M id ic a ll at itu de s 3% Tr op 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. If ice melt was to stop even though average temperatures continue to warm, how would sea level respond 1. Sea level would continue to rise 79% 2. Sea level would reach an equilibrium 3. Sea level would decrease 16% cr ... de w ou ld a Se le v a Se le v el el w ou ld w ou el le v a Se ld re co ac h nt i.. . .. 5% Impacts on water and agriculture MET 112 Water availability – Increase in some in some water-scarce regions, – Decrease in many water scarce regions – Globally, fresh water become more scarce Increased agricultural productivity in some midlatitude regions; reduction in the tropics and subtropics – Overall impact is negative 43 MET 112 Effect on human health Reduced winter mortality in – mid- and high-latitudes Increased incidence of heat stress mortality – Tropics and midlatitudes Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics – such as malaria and – water-borne diseases such as cholera, 45 Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change MET 112 Impacts are worse – – already more flood and drought prone – large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors Lower capacity to adapt – because of a lack of financial and technological capacity Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries 47 MET 112 Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter Summer – 1. Coastal cities: 2. Human health: 3. Water resources: 4. Agriculture: 48 MET 112 Report Issued in 2004 Sections include: – Climate projections – Sea levels – Extreme heat – Health impacts – Water resource – Agriculture and vegetation 50 MET 112 Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090 Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090) 1. Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise. 2. Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes impact most vulnerable 3. Water resources: Total water, but early runoff from Sierras costly to adapt. 4. Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops industries. 55 Weather-related economic damages have increased MET 112 57 MET 112 2020s 2050s 2080s 64