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New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research A Brief History of Scenarios for the Science Community IS92a IS92b IS92c IS92d IS92e IS92f 35 30 25 PgC/yr • 1984 GCAM (then called the EdmondsReilly model) provides input to DOE carbon cycle models • 1990 first IPCC scenarios released • 1992 second IPCC scenarios released: 6 reference, noclimate policy scenarios 40 20 15 10 5 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 Note: Figure shows fossil fuel & Industrial only (no LUC) 2100 Traditional/Linear/Forward Scenario Process SRES Scenarios Meehl, Hibbard, et al. 2007, WCRP Report. UK Met Office Integrated Assessment Models What are future global emissions of carbon and other radiatively important constituents from anthropogenic sources over decade to century time scales? What forces shape the scale and timing of those emissions? Representative Concentration Pathways Description Publication – IA Model RCP8.5 Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2 (~1370 ppm CO2 eq) by 2100. (Riahi et al., 2007) MESSAGE RCP6.0 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W/m2 (~850 ppm CO2 eq) at stabilization after 2100 (Fujino et al., 2006; Hijioka et al., 2008) AIM RCP4.5 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 eq) at stabilization after 2100 (Clarke et al., 2007; Smith and Wigley, 2006; Wise et al., 2009) GCAM RCP2.6 Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3 W/m2 (~490 ppm CO2 eq) before 2100 and then decline (the selected pathway declines to 2.6 W/m2 by 2100) (Van Vuuren et al., 2007a; van Vuuren et al., 2006) IMAGE Climatic Change special issue 2011; The RCPs can be found on the web at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/ RCPs succeed in spanning the existing literature Carbon emissions 2000 to 2100 Year 2100 Carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Concentration van Vuuren et al. 2011 Emissions Radiative Forcing • For long-term CMIP experiments, an extension of each RCP was produced using a simple climate model (MAGICC) • These are not IAM results and do not have underlying socioeconomic assumptions • Assume static land use post-2100 • Designed in consultation with CMIP and IAV representatives van Vuuren et al. 2011 What’s Different From the SRES Scenarios? • RCPs were developed by the IAM community NOT the IPCC • RCPs provide land-use and land cover information as ½o x ½o gridded data • RCPs provide short-lived species emissions as ½o x ½o gridded data • RCPs include climate stabilization scenarios – RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 assume climate policy intervention to transform associated reference scenarios – RCP 8.5 does not include climate policy interventions – RCP 6.0 assumes climate policy intervention late in the century • RCPs provide VERY long-term radiative forcing trajectories—to the year 2300 • RCPs include limited socioeconomic information van Vuuren et al. 2011 Scenario Matrix Architecture Reference SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP4 SSP5 X X X X X RCP Replication SPAs 8.5 Wm-2 X 6.0 Wm-2 X X X X X X X 4.5 Wm-2 X X 2.6 Wm-2 X X X Questions New Scenarios Can Address • Given the world is on a particular development pathway, what are the potential impacts of climate change under different rates and magnitude of change? – For example, if the world is making progress towards sustainable development, then what might be the climate change attributable burden of malaria under different RCPs? • Given the world is on a particular trajectory of climate change, what are the potential impacts under different development pathways? – For example, if the world is on track for 4.5 w/M2 by 2100, then what might be the climate change attributable burden of malaria under different development pathways? Shared Socioeconomic Pathways O’Neill et al. 2013 Mitigation challenges SSP5 High demand; fossil-dominated supply SSP3 Slow reduction in fossil dependency; slow tech change SSP1 SSP4 Reduced fossil dependency, low resource intensity; environmental awareness; effective institutions; high tech development Actual or potential low-C tech development driven by scarcity or policy concerns; few high income emitters; institutions effective for elite Adaptation challenges SSP5 Meet development goals, high economic growth, highly engineered infrastructure SSP1 Meet development goals; reduced inequality; high education; improved health SSP3 Delayed development; low human capital; high inequality; weak institutions; barriers to trade SSP4 High inequality; large fraction of poor with low human capital; institutions ineffective for most What’s in an Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narrative Does not include: Quantitative elements Population Urbanization Rates of technological change Income Human Development Index Income distribution Etc. – typical model output such as emissions, land use, climate change – climate policy (mitigation or adaptation) – not influenced by climate change Basic vs Extended SSPs Regional Extension SSP 2 Extended SSP2 Basic SSP 2 SSP2 Sectoral Extension SSP 2 Extended SSP2 Information sufficient to locate SSP in Domain 2 of the challenges space Global Extension SSP 2 Extended SSP2 Special Issue Climatic Change • A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future direction (Ebi et al.) • A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture (van Vuuren et al.) • A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (O’Neill et al.) • A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of Shared Policy Assumptions (Kriegler et al.) • 10 other papers on various aspects of the framework Shared Socioeconomic Pathways O’Neill et al. 2013 ICONICS International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios https://www.isp.ucar.edu/joint-iav-iam-committee Chairs: Kristie Ebi, Tom Kram • Narratives – Brian O’Neill, Elmar Kriegler • IAM quantitative drivers and IAM scenarios – Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi • IAV quantitative elements and evaluation metrics – Marc Levi, Bas van Ruijven • Nested scenarios across geography and time – Kasper Kok, Ben Preston • IAV-IAM handshake – Jae Edmonds