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UNEP Sourcebook Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change into UNEP Programming Nairobi, Kenya 8-9 April 2008 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 1 Cover art from http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/AIT%20(Penguins)%20blog.JPG UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook ii Table of Contents Page About this Sourcebook .................................................................................................... vi Developer’s note ............................................................................................................ vii Introduction .................................................................................................................. viii List of Acronyms .............................................................................................................. ix Part 1: UNEP and Climate Change - What are UNEP’s strategic objectives? ...................... 11 THIS PART OF THE SOURCEBOOK WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE UNEP ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN IS FINALIZED................................................................................................................ 11 Part 2: Climate Change Science - What are climate variability and climate change? ......... 12 Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 12 a) Defining climate variability and change.................................................................... 12 b) Knowledge Gaps ....................................................................................................... 16 c) Climate Change and Scenarios.................................................................................. 16 d) Use of scenarios for adaptation planning ................................................................. 18 e) Considering climate vulnerability and climate change in UNEP projects ................. 19 Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 19 Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 20 Part 3: Climate Change Impacts - What are the major impacts on physical and social systems from climate variability and change? ................................................................. 22 Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 22 a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 22 b) Vulnerability to climate change ................................................................................ 23 c) Vulnerability assessments and the use of indicators ............................................... 24 d) Including climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments in UNEP projects26 e) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 26 Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 27 Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 28 a) Vulnerability and vulnerability assessments ............................................................ 28 b) Social and gendered vulnerability ............................................................................ 28 c) Indicators .................................................................................................................. 29 d) Impacts and Vulnerability - Agriculture/food security ............................................. 30 e) Adaptation - Agriculture/food security .................................................................... 30 f) Impacts and Vulnerability - Water resources and quality ........................................ 31 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook iii g) Adaptation - Water resources and quality ............................................................... 31 h) Impacts and vulnerability - Coastal zone development ........................................... 32 i) Adaptation - Coastal zone development .................................................................. 32 j) Impacts and vulnerability - Ecosystems and Natural resources management ........ 32 k) Adaptation - Ecosystems and Natural resources management ............................... 33 l) Impacts and Vulnerability – Public Health ................................................................ 33 m) Adaptation – Public Health ....................................................................................... 34 n) Impacts and Vulnerability - Disaster risk management ............................................ 34 o) Adaptation - Disaster risk management ................................................................... 35 p) Urban vulnerability: Settlements, infrastructure and planning ............................... 35 Part 4: Climate Change Adaptation - What does it mean to adapt, and what are the key premises regarding the need to build adaptive capacity in UNEP projects? ...................... 36 Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 36 a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 36 b) What does the literature say about adaptation and adaptive capacity? ................. 37 c) Adaptive Capacity ..................................................................................................... 38 d) Criteria for selecting adaptation strategies .............................................................. 39 e) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 40 Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 41 Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 41 Part 5: Climate Change Risks - What are the major types of climate risks faced in UNEP’s portfolio? ........................................................................................................... 43 Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 43 a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 43 b) Main climate risks for consideration (from Schneider et al., 2007-unless otherwise noted)............................................................................................................................... 43 c) Managing risks to UNEP projects for task managers ................................................ 44 d) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 46 Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 47 Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 47 Part 6: Climate Change Tools - What tools are currently available for screening projects regarding the integration of climate risks into project design? ........................................ 49 Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 49 a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 49 b) Tools for Information generation, databases and platforms ................................... 49 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook iv c) Computer-based decision tools ................................................................................ 51 d) Adaptation planning and risk management processes ............................................ 52 e) Climate proofing UNEP projects ............................................................................... 55 f) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 55 Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 56 Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 56 Part 7: Climate Change Case studies - What case studies are particularly instructive for integrating adaptation concerns into UNEP project planning? .................................... 59 Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 59 a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 59 b) ETHIOPIA: Greater Boma Park Initiative ................................................................... 59 c) Amazon Basin: Adaptation to climate change .......................................................... 60 d) India: Enabling Women to Play a Lead Role in Disaster-Affected Marginal Communities .................................................................................................................... 61 e) Climate risk assessment, a standard Practice in UNEP project design? ................... 62 f) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 62 Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 63 Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 64 Part 8. Other Resources .................................................................................................. 66 Glossary ................................................................................................................................ 66 Organizations working on adaptation ................................................................................. 72 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook v About this Sourcebook This Sourcebook on tools, methods, and issues related to the integration of adaptation to climate change into UNEP Programming was researched and written for the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) by the Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center. UNEP’s motivation in the compilation of this collection of expert sources is to give its Task Managers and workshop participants a place to begin as they consider climate-sensitive approaches to project and programme formulation. The Sourcebook has been carefully designed with UNEP’s unique priorities and emphases in view, and reflects the insights generated from a rigorous internal review process. A range of topics are addressed including scientific literature regarding the phenomenon of climate change, vulnerability dimensions of natural and social systems, adaptation planning frameworks, climate-proofing methods and tools, and a range of case study information. Each topic is backed up by key reference literature available on the UNEP website (http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actviti es.asp), plus a broad bibliography for future reference. Taken together, the information in this Sourcebook can be used in the effort to better integrate risks associated with climate variability and climate change into future UNEP projects. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook vi Developer’s note This Sourcebook addresses the issue of how to assist UNEP Task Managers to integrate climate change adaptation concerns into project and programme portfolios. It has been designed to closely align with UNEP’s recent Climate Change Adaptation Initiative, as well as outputs from the brainstorming meeting held in February 2008 at the UN Complex in Gigiri, Nairobi. UNEP’s internal review process led to eventual convergence on the specific range of topics the Sourcebook should address, the format for synthesizing and presenting critical literature, and the modalities associated with the companion workshop on methods and tools to “climate-proof” UNEP projects. If you’d like us to add a source, or otherwise wish to comment on the Sourcebook, please email [email protected]. Given the plan to improve this Sourcebook over time, your feedback is vital. Bill Dougherty Amanda Fencl Stockholm Environment Institute – US Center An Independent Research Affiliate of Tufts University 11 Curtis Avenue Somerville, MA USA Tel: +1-617-627-3786 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook vii Introduction The last few decades have witnessed extensive research on potential and observed impacts of climate change and variability. Climate variability is a relatively near-term phenomenon characterized by intensification in the departure from baseline climatic trends in temperature and precipitation extremes. Climate change, in contrast, is long-term changes that may alter agricultural productivity, land and marine ecosystems, and the resources that these ecosystems supply. The negative impacts of climate change are likely to be most serious in the tropics and subtropics, where the majority of developing countries are located and where the capacity to adapt to changes is most limited; it is widely accepted that developing countries are largely maladapted to future climate risks. The adverse impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable in the least developed and developing countries. The combined challenges of climate change, environmental degradation, and persistent impoverishment render developing societies extremely vulnerable to climate risks and undermine their ability to cope and adapt to change. The Niche of UNEP in climate change adaptation has been defined as meeting the twin needs of vulnerable countries for environment protection and economic development and assisting them in integrating adaptation into their multi-faceted planning and deliberative processes. Three key pillars were identified to support UNEP’s Niche, 1) building key adaptive capacity of the developing world; 2) increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk of climate-related disasters and conflicts; and 3) mobilizing and managing knowledge for adaptation policy and planning. This sourcebook provides project managers with the background knowledge, resources, and tools to begin developing these pillars and ultimately integrating climaterisks and adaptation into UNEP projects through the following parts: Part 1. UNEP Climate Change strategic objectives and niche in climate change adaptation Understanding Climate Science, Assessing Vulnerability to Impacts Part 2. Science What is climate variability and change? Part 3. Impacts What are the major impacts from climate variability and change? UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook Adaptation in response to climate risks and impacts Screening for risk and learning from case studies Part 4. Adaptation Part 5. Risks Part 6. Tools Part 7. Case Studies What does it mean to adapt, and build adaptive capacity in UNEP projects? What are the major types of climate risks facing UNEP’s portfolio? What tools are available for screening projects? What case studies instructive for integrating adaptation concerns into project planning? viii List of Acronyms ADAPT ADB AIACC APF CBDP CCAIRR CCIAV CIEAR CRiSTAL DGIS ENSO GCM GDP GEF GEO-4 GHG ITCZ IPCC SAR IPCC 4AR IPCC MA MCA MTS NAPA OFDA/CRED ORCHID PRECIS SDSM SES SLA SRES TAR UKCIP UNDP UNEP UNEP/DELC Assessment and Design for Adaptation to Climate Change: a Prototype Tool Asian Development Bank Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change Adaptation Policy Framework community-based disaster preparedness Climate Change Adaptation through Integrated Risk Reduction climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (assessments) Climate envelopes/adaptation risk screening platform Community-based Risk Screening Tool- Adaptation & Livelihoods (Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affair’s) Directorate General for International Cooperation El niño-Southern Oscillation (effect) general circulation models gross domestic product Global environment facility Global Environment Outlook 4 green house gas (emissions) inter-tropical convergence zone IPCC Second Assessment Report IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Multi-criteria assessment (UNEP’s) Medium Term Strategy 2010-2013 National Adaptation Programme of Action Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies Statistical Down-Scaling Model socio-ecological system Sustainable Livelihoods Approach Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC) Third Assessment Report United Kingdom’s Climate Impacts Programme United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme UNEP Division of Environmental Law and Conventions UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook ix UNEP/DEWA UNFCCC UNISDR USAID WGI WHO UNEP Division of Early Warning and Assessment United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction US Agency for International Development Working Group I of the IPCC World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organization UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook x Part 1: UNEP and Climate Change - What are UNEP’s strategic objectives? THIS PART OF THE SOURCEBOOK WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE UNEP ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN IS FINALIZED. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 11 Part 2: Climate Change Science - What are climate variability and climate change? Part 2 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on the science of climate change. Climate-proofing ongoing and future projects and policies requires a strong understanding of climate science. This Part reviews the science of climate change summarized in the most recent IPCC Fourth Assessment report (Solomon et al., 2007). It also discusses, based on available literature, the distinction between climate change and variability in both normative and scientific terms. The section then provides a brief overview of the issues of data and information needs for adaptation planning, suggesting sources of information as well as where gaps remain drawing from Smit et al. (2000). The section describes climate and socio-economic scenarios and their usefulness in adaptation planning, including the ongoing work to refine scenarios pulling primarily from Dessai et al. (2005). Overview of key issues and knowledge a) Defining climate variability and change A fundamental issue when thinking through potential adaptation options is to appreciate that weather is distinct from climate. Weather consists of the short-term (minutes to about 15 days) variations of the atmosphere. Climate, on the other hand, is defined as weather averaged over long periods and consists of patterns such as the frequency and intensity of storms, cold outbreaks, and heat waves. The distinction between weather and climate is insufficient to capture the array of climate stimuli and temporal scales pertinent for the analysis of impacts and adaptations (Smit et al., 2000). An area’s climate is influenced by both external and internal factors. External factors, or forcings, include imbalances between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation and long-period changes in the Earth's orbital elements (eccentricity, obliquity of the ecliptic, precession of equinoxes). Internal factors include interactions among components of the climate system and natural internal processes (thermohaline circulation, El Niño southern oscillation). All of these factors influence both climate variability and climate change. Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) (IPCC, 2001). Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation either in the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) (IPCC, 2001). Additionally, any changes in mean climatic conditions (long-term global or regionally) are experienced through changes in the nature and frequency of particular yearly conditions (Smit et al., 2000). UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 12 To better grasp the distinction between climate change and climate variability we turn to the figure at right. In figure a, a shift in a mean climate attribute (e.g., mean temperatures become 1-2 degrees warmer or annual rainfall is reduced by 3%) necessarily shifts the whole distribution curve even if there is no change in variability (no change in shape or variance of distribution curve). On the other hand, if there are changes in variance of the distribution of a climatic attribute such as a longer rainy season or increased duration of droughts (figure 1b) in addition to shift in the mean, then the frequency of “extreme” events can be increased (or reduced depending on location). 1a. Climate Change with Unchanged Variability 1b. Climate Change with Changed Variability The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. The UNFCCC makes a distinction between “climate change” attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability” attributable to natural causes. Variability and change result in different impacts and while society and ecosystems are used to coping with variability, they may not be able to adapt quickly enough to climate change. Interest in adaptation to climate change extends to both changes in mean conditions as well as climate variability. There is particular ongoing interest in adaptation to climate variability (which includes extremes) in addition to preparing and building resilience for future climate change. This is due, in part, to the fact that even with no change in climate, resilience to climate variability is still critical to successful environment protection and economic development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently completed its fourth assessment report (4AR) about the influence of human activity on the climate system (IPCC, 2007). The report is a comprehensive and updated scientific assessment of past, present and future climate change. It provides the most detailed assessment of changes observed throughout the climate system than ever before using the latest measurements covering the atmosphere, land surface, oceans, and snow, ice and frozen ground. Moreover, it provides the first probabilistic assessment of climate model simulations and projections using detailed atmosphere-ocean coupled models from 18 modeling centers around the world. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 13 The IPCC Sequence of Key Findings1 1. IPCC (1990) Broad overview of climate change science, discussion of uncertainties and evidence for warming. 2. IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” 3. IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.” 4. IPCC (2007)* “Warming is unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past 50 years is very likely (90%) due to increases in greenhouse gases.” *Compared to its previous assessment published in 2001 (IPCC, 2001), it is important to note that the IPCC 4AR is stronger in its conclusions regarding the effects of human influence on the climate system. Treatment of uncertainty in climate science, and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) IPCC 4AR contributions from Working Group I: The Scientific Basis (McCarthy et al., 2007) acknowledges the improved scientific evidence and which the assessment drew, for the first time, between levels of confidence in scientific understanding and the likelihoods of specific results. Improvements in climatological models and analysis techniques have led to increased confidence in the understanding of the influence of external forcing on climate since the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR). There are two primary types of uncertainty referenced in the IPCC reports: 1. Value uncertainty (incomplete determination of particular values) 2. Structural uncertainty (incomplete understanding of processes that control the results or values) The boxes below summarize the way in which the IPCC describes uncertainty in the context of its assessments. Value uncertainties are estimated using statistical techniques and expressed probabilistically (see likelihood terminology) while structural uncertainties are typically described though the authors’ collective judgment of their confidence in the correctness of the result (see confidence terminology). Image from IPCC WGI, Technical What is new in the IPCCSummary 4AR?(2007) Since the 2001 TAR, recent studies and a growing body of evidence have provided for a broader and more confident assessment of the relationship between observed warming and other trends and impacts on social and ecological systems. Data improvements, broader 1 from a presentation by Susan Solomon, co-chair WG I at the Norwegian Academy of Sciences; available from http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/ UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 14 geographical coverage, better understanding of uncertainties, and wider variety of measurements enhance the 4AR in relation to the TAR. For example, WGI: The Scientific Basis draws on new and independent evidence from many types of paleo-climatic data, e.g. changes in glaciers indicating a global average temperature change in the 20th century consistent with the thermometers, as well as supporting evidence from corals, tree rings, boreholes, and ice cores. Scientists also have access to better and longer satellite data about the sun and solar irradiance. Climatic changes in the 20th century are distinct from natural variability. Many observed changes in surface and free atmospheric temperature, ocean temperature and sea ice extent, and some large-scale changes in the atmospheric circulation over the 20th century are distinct from internal variability and consistent with the expected response to anthropogenic forcing (>95% likelihood). Qualitative consistency is also apparent in some other observations, including snow cover, glacier retreat and heavy precipitation. The following table summarizes climate phenomenon and likelihood based on new evidence: Table 1. Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend. {Tables 3.7, 3.8, 9.4; Sections 3.8, 5.5, 9.7, 11.2–11.9} (Solomon et al., 2007) 2 Phenomenona and direction of trend Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land areas Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most areas Area affected by droughts increases Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Increased incidence of extreme high sea level Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century (typically post 1960) Likelihood of a human contribution to observed trend Likelihood of future trends based on projections for21st century using SRES scenarios Very likelyc Likelyd Virtually certaind Very likelye Likely (nights)d Virtually certaind Likely More likely than notf Very likely Likely More likely than notf Very likely Likely in many regions since 1970s More likely than not Likely Likely in many regions since 1970s More likely than notf Likely Likely More likely than not f ,h Likelyi The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the third assessment report (TAR), leading to a very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities has been one of warming. Anthropogenic 2 For complete table notes see page 8, Summary for Policy Makers: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; f […] Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather than formal attribution studies; g Extreme high sea level depends on average sea level and on regional weather systems. […].; h Changes in observed extreme high sea level closely follow the changes in average sea level. It is very likely that anthropogenic activity contributed to a rise in average sea level; i In all scenarios, the projected global average sea level at 2100 is higher than in the reference period. The effect of changes in regional weather systems on sea level extremes has not been assessed. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 15 warming is likely to be discernible on all inhabited continents. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed preindustrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The main activities contributing to global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid20th century is very likely (>90% certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC 4AR). b) Knowledge Gaps Since 1990, observed sea level has been rising faster than the rise projected by models raising concerns that the climate system may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates (Rahmstorf et al., 2007). All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over the period 1953 to 2006. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations (Stroeve et al., 2007). Scientific capability for modeling external influences on climate has increased. Climate models have been used to accurately reproduce key features of past climatic condition using boundary conditions and radiative forcing for these past periods. These analyses of past data have increased confidence that the models can be used to adequately predict the role of future external influences on the climate system. The uncertainties associated with the modeling of future climate scenarios have been divided by the Hadley Centre into three broad categories: (i) emissions uncertainty; (ii) natural climatic variability; and (iii) modelling uncertainty (UKCIP). Estimates of some radiative forcings also remain uncertain, including aerosol forcing and inter-decadal variations in solar forcing. The major gap in applying climate change knowledge yields from the fact that the majority of climate models remain global and regional, namely the General Circulation Models (GCMs), and have limited applications at a smaller scale. Global climate models are the only tools currently available to us for simulating the complex set of processes that determine climate at global and regional levels. Difficulties remain in simulating and attributing observed climate changes at smaller scales where natural variability is larger and less easily distinguished from climate changes expected from external forcings like human activities. c) Climate Change and Scenarios Scenarios are appropriate tools for dealing with the uncertainty in climate chance science. Scenarios are images of the future, or alternative futures. As an integration tool in the assessment of climate change they allow a role for intuition, analysis, and synthesis thereby aiding in the assessment of future climate change, impacts, vulnerabilities, adoption, and mitigation. To be clear, scenarios are not predictions, rather a set of scenarios can be used UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 16 to assist in the understanding of possible future developments, and hence the development of a set of alternative scenarios. For a long time, climate change adaptation planning was hindered by the unavailability and unreliability of climate forecasts or predictions that could have otherwise informed estimates of the probability of impacts. Scenarios of future emissions played an important role from the beginning of the IPCC work. In 1990, the IPCC initiated the development of its first set of GHG emissions scenarios designed to serve as inputs to general circulation models (GCMs) and facilitate the assessments of climate-change impacts (Houghton et al., 1990). Scenarios were initially driven by climate model capacity, more recently they have been driven by the desire and need for climate impact assessments (See Hulme and Carter (1999) for a chronology of climate scenarios for impact assessment). The IPCC’s 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) developed four different narrative storylines to describe consistently the relationships between emission driving forces and their evolution and add context for the scenario quantification. Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments, which may be viewed positively by some people and negatively by others. The storylines use socio-economic information in the form of quantitative assumptions on population, gross domestic product (GDP), land use, different types of energy use, and rates of technological progress. Many socio-economic scenarios used in impacts assessments have taken the IPCC SRES scenarios as a basis for developing storylines and quantitative scenarios at national and sub-national levels. For each of the four storylines, scientists developed several different scenarios using different modeling approaches to examine the range of outcomes arising from a range of models that use similar assumptions about driving forces. Six models were used which are representative of integrated assessment frameworks in the literature. One advantage of a multi-model approach is that the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG emissions (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The table and chart below illustrates how these six models differ. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 17 d) Use of scenarios for adaptation planning Scenarios are a communication tool about what is known and not known about climate change. In planning for adaptation, scenarios are typically downscaled from general circulation models (GCMs) to the national and sub-national scale, aiming to determine the likely impacts of climate change under alternative future scenarios. Impacts assessments take an aggregated view of the subject of study. They tend to be quantitative and provide scenarios of future climate impacts for an entire country or region using GCM. Projections derived from GCMs are usually combined with biophysical analyses and socioeconomic scenarios in order to assess sector specific impacts. Spatial and temporal differences are often averaged out and trend curves are generally smooth, so that shortterm changes, threshold effects, and localized costs are not easily identified. Undertaken in isolation, top-down impacts assessments may be disconnected from reality and fail to reach stakeholders, as there may be too much uncertainty with regard to the local impacts of climate change. In short, top-down approaches make strong use of biophysical aspects of climate impacts and aggregate socio-economic data and are often excellent at problem/issue scoping and first line questions, but they do not fare well in capturing human interaction and local abilities to adapt. United Kingdom’s Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) provides comprehensive socioeconomic scenarios for use in impacts assessment at the national and sub-national level (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios/).Although not based on the SRES, the storylines developed followed a similar logic by analyzing future socio-economic conditions along four dimensions of governance and political and social values. Groups of indicators were selected to describe each of the following categories/sectors: economic development, planning and built environment, agriculture, water, biodiversity and coastal zone management. The IPCC Guidelines3, which involve the application of climate scenarios to assess impacts, have been extremely successful in providing guidance for research on climate change impacts. The uncertainties of climate and socio-economic scenarios, however, can lead to a ‘‘mismatch’’ of spatial scales between the scale at which scenarios are readily and credibly available (usually global) and that at which adaptation policy is formulated (local). Consequently, impact assessments relying on scenarios have not always yielded useful results for the purposes of adaptation (Burton et al., 2002). Dessai et al. (2005), included in this sourcebook, considered the use of climate scenarios for adaptation planning in practice, and present case study examples of different ways in which scenarios can be used. They show that the role played by scenarios depends on the approach to adaptation adopted and the financial and technical capacity to handle scenario information and describe a set of calibrated indicators of adaptive capacity. Through these indicators show that adaptive capacity is associated primarily not with measures of wealth, but indicators of governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. Some proponents of a human development approach argue that rather than using climate scenarios to guide adaptation decision-making, the focus should be on current climate 3 IPCC guidelines were developed in the early 1990s and used in the TAR. The approach has seven main steps: 1) define problem (including study area, its sectors, etc.); 2) select method of assessment most appropriate to the problems; 3) test methods/conduct sensitivity analysis; 4) select and apply climate change scenarios; 5) assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts; 6) assess autonomous adjustments; 7) evaluate adaptation strategies. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 18 variability and existing coping strategies of communities or systems in response to past and/or ongoing climatic stress. Robust adaptation planning would benefit from ensuring favorable conditions such that past coping strategies remain successful. Adaptation measures derived from past experiences could offer cost-effective and ‘‘no-regret’’ options in most cases, however, if characteristics of climate-related stresses in the future are significantly different from those under the present conditions they might prove to be inadequate (Dessai et al., 2005). e) Considering climate vulnerability and climate change in UNEP projects UNEP consider climate change in several divisions as well as through collaborations with other international bodies. UNEP/DEWA, in its work on building capacity to respond to immediate and often unpredictable events, already considers major weather events like hurricanes, cyclones, and tornadoes (whose future frequency may change depending on how they are influenced by climatic attributes), as well as climatic variation (El Niño events, or droughts caused by lack of rainfall). UNEP/DELC has initiated and implemented a major programme on climate change outreach in response to the needs of developing countries and following the request from the UNFCCC Secretariat. UNEP is well situated to integrate climate change adaptation into its portfolio of working particularly by building on its ongoing roles in the IPCC, Global Climate Observing Systems (GCOS), Millennium Ecosystems Assessments (MA), and Atlas project to document and quantify the impact of human on environmental changes. UNEP’s nice in increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk of climate-related disasters builds on its expertise and experience in ecosystem management practices and integrating climate change information. Key literature Arnell et al. (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterizing the SRES storylines, Global Environmental Change (14) 3-20 2. Burton, I. et al. (2002) From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy (2) 145–159 1. 3. Dessai, S., Lu XianFu, Risbey, J. S. (2005) “On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning”. Global Environmental Change, 2005 (Vol. 15) (No. 2) 87-9 4. Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R., and Wandel, J. (2000). An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability. Climatic Change 45:223-251. 5. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Avery, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 9. Available for download from, http://ipccwg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html. 6. UNEP Fact Sheet on Climate (http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf ) Change: Key literature is available at the following website: http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 19 o Climate Change at a Glance o The Causes of Climate Change Comprehensive Bibliography 1. Dilley, M. (2000) Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information. Climatic Change. 45:63-73 2. Easterling, W., Hurd, B., Smith, J. 2004. Coping with Global Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the United States. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, Virginia. Available from, http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Adaptation.pdf. 3. FAO (2007) Climate Related Risks and Extreme Events Available from, http://www.fao.org/clim/docs/CDROM/docs/Nairobi/ExtremeEvents23Feb07.pdf 4. Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-02.PDF 5. R. Edwards (2007) Sea levels: resolution and uncertainty. Progress in Physical Geography, Vol. 31, No. 6, 621-632 DOI: 10.1177/0309133307087086. Available from http://ppg.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/6/621?rss=1 6. Rahmstorf, S. Anny Cazenave, John A. Church, James E. Hansen, Ralph F. Keeling, David E. Parker, and Richard C. J. (4 May 2007) Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections Science 316 (5825), 709. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1136843 7. Ribot, J.C. 1996. “Climate Variability, Climate Change and Vulnerability: Moving Forward by Looking Back”, in: Ribot, J.C., Magalhães, A.R. and Panagides, S.S. (eds.) Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-arid Tropics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 8. Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R., and Wandel, J. (2000). An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability. Climatic Change 45:223-251. 9. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 9. The following sections are available for download from, http://ipccwg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html. o Summary for Policymakers o Technical Summary o 1. Historical Review of Climate Science o 8. Climate Models and their Evaluation o 9. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. 10. Stroeve, J., et al. 2007. “Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast.” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703. 11. UNEP Fact Sheets on Climate Change, its causes, and consequences (http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf pages 1-7) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 20 12. UNISDR (2006) On Better Terms: A Glance at Key Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Concepts. Available from, http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climatechange/on-better-terms/On-better-terms.pdf. 13. US Global Change Research http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ProgramElements/understanding.htm Program SCENARIOS LITERATURE 14. Arnell et al. (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines, Global Environmental Change (14) 3-20 15. Burton, I. et al. (2002) From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy (2) 145–159 16. Dessai, S., Lu XianFu, Risbey, J. S. (2005) “On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning”. Global Environmental Change, 2005 (Vol. 15) (No. 2) 87-9 17. Engelhaupt, E. 2007. “Models underestimate global warming impacts.” Environmental Science & Technology, 41, 4488-4489. 18. Hulme, M., T. Wigley, E. Barrow, S. Raper, A. Centella, S. Smith, and A. Chipanshi. 2000. Using a Climate Scenario Generator for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments: MAGICC and SCENGEN Version 2.4 Workbook, Norwich, UK: Climatic Research Unit 19. Hulme, M., Carter, T.R., 1999. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies, In: Carter, T.R., Hulme, M., Viner, D. (Eds.), Representing Uncertainty in Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Studies. ECLAT-2 Report No. 1, Helsinki Workshop, 14–16 April 1999, CRU, Norwich, 11–37pp. 20. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) – developed four of their own scenarios http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf; 21. Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Swart, Rob (eds.), (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Available from http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/ 22. Nakicenovic et al. (2003) IPCC SRES Revisited: A Response. Energy & Environment. Vol.14, No 2 & 3. Available from http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/ipcc-sres-revisited/ipcc-sresrevisited.pdf 23. Richard S.J. Tol, Brian O’Neill, Detlef P. van Vuuren. (2005) A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE IPCC SRES SCENARIOS http://www.unihamburg.de/Wiss/FB/15/Sustainability/ensemblessres.pdf UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 21 Part 3: Climate Change Impacts - What are the major impacts on physical and social systems from climate variability and change? Part 3 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on the projected impacts of climate change on natural and social systems. Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Methods of vulnerability assessment have been developed in the fields of natural hazards, poverty analysis, food security and sustainable livelihoods and, most recently, to determine how people cope with climate hazards (Füssel and Klein, 2006). Impacts are discussed in this Part of the Sourcebook relative to the UNEP’s climate change adaptation areas as identified in the recently developed Adaptation Action Plan i.e., water resources, coastal zones, biodiversity, sensitive ecosystems/services, land degradation and agriculture, public health and disaster management. Overview of key issues and knowledge a) Introduction Vulnerability is a broader concept than just impacts of climate change. The prominent definition of vulnerability in global change and climate change research is defined in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report as follows: “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.” (IPCC 4AR Glossary, 2007) This definition incorporates three main variables 1) ‘exposure’4 to climatic variations and 2) ‘sensitivity’5 and 3) ‘adaptive capacity’6 of a system to various stressors (Füssel and Klein, 2006). Because climate impacts occur in the context of a constantly evolving socio-economic baseline situation, vulnerability assessments make use of socio-economic scenarios, in addition to climate scenarios, to better capture the non-climatic stressors that influence the adaptive capacity of systems. The next few pages draw from the literature to discuss the key impacts from climate change and using vulnerability assessments to identify physical and social risks due to climate change. Solomon et al., (2007) and Leary et al., (2008) support the summary of impacts in this section, the former as part of the IPCC 4AR has an emphasis on the scientific aspects of vulnerability while the latter builds off case studies in the field to identify vulnerabilities across scales and systems. Brooks et al., (2004) and Downing and Patwardha (2005) contribute to our understanding of the creation and application of vulnerability indicators with respect to vulnerability assessments. 4 Exposure: the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations Sensitivity: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli […] the effect may be direct […] or indirect. 6 Adaptive capacity (in relation to climate change impacts) The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. 5 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 22 b) Vulnerability to climate change IPCC Working Group II’s fourth assessment reports the current scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change on natural, managed, and human systems, in addition to suggesting the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability. The summary for policy makers is included in its entirety in the pages following this introduction (Solomon et al., 2007), however, we highlight the following findings: High confidence that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems meaning earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in species’ geographic ranges. High confidence that observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures and changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation meaning shifts in species’ ranges, earlier migration of fish in rivers, increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude oceans and lakes. Increasing maximum and minimum temperatures meaning more hot/cold days and more heatwaves/cold waves over nearly all land areas. More intense precipitation events resulting in flooding, increased erosion, spread of waterborne-illnesses, and crop inundation. Increased summer drying and the associated risk of drought which contributes to crop failure, food insecurity, and increased erosion and subsequent declining soil health. These changes profoundly influence and interact with changes in social systems. For example, warmer and drier conditions in the Sahel reduce the growing season and contribute to food insecurity and sea-level rise and temperature changes, alongside human coastal development contribute to wetland, mangrove and related habitat and livelihood loss. To better understand the influence of climate change on physical and social vulnerability as well as response options in developing country regions, twenty-four regional assessments were implemented under the international project The Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC). The following statements briefly state the main lessons about vulnerability to emerge from that synthesis (Leary et al., 2008): The danger is greatest where natural systems are severely degraded and human systems are failing. The livelihoods and food security of the rural poor are threatened by climate change.* A household’s access to water, land, and other resources is an important determinant of its vulnerability.* Multiple factors converge to make the people inhabiting coastal zones and small islands highly vulnerable. Vulnerability to adverse health impacts is greater where health care systems are weak and programs for disease surveillance and prevention are lacking. * These have particular implications for women given gendered differences in cultural, social and economic roles and access to resources, information and property. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 23 c) Vulnerability assessments and the use of indicators Vulnerability assessments are integral in responding to future climate risks and the assessment process itself can enable the management of current climate risks. Assessments are typically on a specific scale, (see UNEP’s graphic to the right), while also acknowledging significant cross-scale interactions given the interdependency of social and ecological systems and the relationship to national and sector-level policies and decisions. Vulnerability depends critically on context, and the factors that make a system vulnerable to a hazard will depend on the nature of the system and the type of hazard in question. Certain factors are likely to influence vulnerability to a wide variety of hazards in different geographical and sociopolitical contexts. Many researchers have found that, generally, climate change is superimposed on existing vulnerabilities i.e. further reducing access to drinking water, negatively Image from http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/20.htm affecting the health of poor people, and will pose a real threat to food security (Sperling, 2003). Climate change vulnerability assessments examine the underlying socio-economic, institutional, and, to a lesser extent, political and cultural factors, that influence vulnerability alongside processes that shape the consequences of climate variations and change to identify the conditions that amplify or dampen vulnerability to adverse outcomes. Brooks et al. (2005) used 46 variables representing generic vulnerability, representing economic well-being and inequality, health and nutritional status, education, physical infrastructure, governance, geographic and demographic factors, agriculture, ecosystems and technological capacity (summary table reproduced below). As the indices developed were based on indicators of vulnerability related to mortality outcomes from climaterelated disasters, the indicators of adaptive capacity represent the capacity to reduce mortality from climate hazards, and should be used within this context. Selected potential proxies for national-level vulnerability to climate change (from Brooks et al., 2005) Category Variable Proxy Economy National wealth GDP per capita (US$ PPP) Economy Inequality GINI coefficient Health and Health expenditure per capita (US$ PPP) and/or State support for health nutrition Public health expenditure (% of GDP) Health and nutrition General food availability Food production index (annual change averaged over 1981–90 and 1991–99) Infrastructure Isolation of rural communities Governance Willingness to invest in adaptation Effectiveness of policies Roads (km, scaled by land area with 99% of population) Political stability Rule of law Control of corruption Governance UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 24 Governance Geography and demography Ecology Conflict Coastal risk Ecology Sustainability of water resources Technology Commitment to and resources for research Environmental stress Internal refugees (1000s) scale by population km of coastline (scale by land area) Coastal risk Population within 100km of coastline (%) Protected land area (%) Forest change rate (% per year) Groundwater recharge per capita Water resources per capita R&D investment (% GNP) Developing and using indicators requires awareness of several technical issues, including their sensitivity to change, standardizing indicators for comparison, reliability of the data, mapping of indicators, coverage of relevant dimensions of vulnerability, and others. (Downing and Patwardhan, 2005) If existing inventories are available, many of these issues will have already been addressed and the literature on indicators provides examples of good practice (see indicators section bibliography). The growth of different approaches to assessing climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) has been driven by the need for improved decision analysis. Ultimately, the choice of assessment methodology must be guided by the locus of the problem—the nature of the actors and their networks, the role of environmental trends and surprise, the information needs of the users, and the resources available to the team. A sophisticated model that fails to address a key vulnerability is misleading and an abuse of the responsibility of the expert to provide robust assessments (Downing and Ziervogel). A spreadsheet with additional tools, a drawing canvass for building a flow chart of vulnerability projects, and a guided process of choosing generic tools is available from www.vulnerabilitynet.org. Example: ecosystem vulnerability The vulnerability of ecosystems and species to climate change is influenced by the specificity of their climate requirements, the change in spatial extent of areas that match those requirements, the degree of connectivity between suitable areas, the rates at which suitable climates move across the landscape, and the rates at which different species can migrate. Anthropogenic pressures also shape vulnerability by weakening ecosystem resilience and fragmenting land uses that pose barriers to species migration. Such “other” drivers listed in the table below influence one another and result in changes that undermine ecosystem functioning on top of impacts due to climate change. Local weather regimes shifts could lead to shifts in species composition, which would change competitive interactions among species and affect the distribution and abundance of pests, fire frequency, and climate-sensitive soil processes such as erosion and decomposition. As climate change leads to increased disturbances such as fire or drought, these disruptions also create the type of environment ripe for the invasion and spread of introduced non-native and pest species. A key determinant of the adaptability of an ecosystem or species is its ability to migrate as the climatic conditions it favors shift; species unable to migrate to more climatically suitable habitats are more vulnerable to these anticipated impacts of climate change (McKenney-Easterling et al., 2000; Leary et al., 2008). The introduction to Leary et al. (2008) includes clear summary tables of sector level impacts, including table 1.3 on Ecosystems and Biodiversity Vulnerabilities here: UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 25 Level of Concern HIGH Outcomes of Concern Climate Drivers Other Drivers Collapse or loss of entire ecosystem and extinction of many of the system’s species Rapid rate of change in mean temperature Changes in water balance across an ecosystem’s geographic distribution that are beyond tolerance limits of dominant species Changes in seasonal climate extremes, variability and means MEDIUM Species loss and retrogressive succession Greater water stress from higher temperatures and lower precipitation LOW Genetic loss Loss of genetic variability, loss of sub-species and varieties Slow changes in climate Small absolute changes in temperature and precipitation that do not fundamentally alter water balances Narrow climate tolerances of dominant species of an ecosystem Extensive habitat loss/fragmenting due to land use change Severe pressure from overgrazing, over-harvesting, overfishing, etc. Severe competition from invasive species Severe pressure from pollution Changing fire regimes Physical barriers to species migration (e.g. islands, mountain tops, isolated valleys) Changes in grass-tree interactions due to increase CO2 in atmosphere Moderate pressure on ecosystems due to habitat loss and fragmentation, overexploitation, competition from invasive species, and pollution Changing fire regimes Changes in grass-tree interactions due to increase CO2 in atmosphere More severe effects kept in check by: Managing pressures on ecosystems to a low level Connections of suitable habitat enable species to migrate For a broader range of impacts on additional sectors, see: 1) the IPCC 4AR Summary for Policymakers includes a summary table with examples of possible impacts of climate change (Solomon et al., 2007) 2) the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) situates the impact of climate on ecosystems and biodiversity in the context of other drivers (see Reid et al., 2005, p16). d) Including climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments in UNEP projects Vulnerability assessments can act as stand-alone indicators of a system’s state of vulnerability or they can be integrated with climate forecasts to assess future climate vulnerability. Assessments of key vulnerabilities, based on identified criteria, provide information on the rates and levels of climate change and contribute to the identification of avenues by which to build resilience. Developing expertise in this area will enable UNEP to support valuable work in understanding ecosystem vulnerability to the international community’s related vulnerability work in development, food security, disaster mitigation, health, and poverty reduction. Part 5 of this Sourcebook on climate risks to UNEP projects underscores the usefulness of conducting climate vulnerability assessments in identifying risks, building resilience, and developing adaptation strategies. e) Looking ahead A system’s future vulnerability depends on its development pathway in addition to anticipated climate changes, making a strong case for integrated vulnerability assessments and building the resilience of both social and ecological systems to climate change hazards. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 26 Adaptation is necessary, given the impacts resulting from warming alone; especially when considering current warming from past emissions is unavoidable, and future warming from current emissions may be similarly unavoidable. For UNEP, this means supporting more work to improve the methodologies, tools and information that are needed for improving the current understanding of vulnerability and how to reduce it in response to climate risks within UNEP’s own portfolio as well as in collaboration with other international entities working in this area. The literature included in the sourcebook suggests both the ways in which vulnerability identified within a system, and the ways in which some projects have begun using that knowledge to inform adaptation processes. The literature includes background papers that establish the theoretical underpinnings of the relationship between vulnerability, risk, and climate hazards. It also includes sector impact assessments, beyond the ecosystem example listed above, to emphasize the role of multiple vulnerabilities (ecological, social, economic, physical) within any given system that contributes to its ability to respond and adapt to climate change, variability and hazards. Key literature 7. Adger, N. (2006) Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change. 16 268–281 8. Brooks, N. Adger, W.N. and Kelly, P. (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change Part A Volume 15, Issue 2, Pages 151-163 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006 9. Downing, T. and Patwardhan, A. (2005) Assessing vulnerability for climate change adaptation. Adaptation Planning Framework Technical Paper 3. Available from, http://www.undp.org/gef/undpgef_publications/publications/apf%20technical%20paper03.pdf. 10. Downing, T. and Ziervogel, Gina (n.d.) Vulnerability indicators and mapping in Poverty and Vulnerability Programme. 11. Füssel, H. and Klein, R. (2006) Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments an Evolution of Conceptual Thinking. Climatic Change (75) 301-329. 12. Rogers, C. and McCarty, J. (2000) Climate Change and Ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research. Vol. 14: 235–244 Available from http://www.intres.com/articles/cr/14/c014p235.pdf 13. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 9. The following sections are available for download from, http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html. 14. UNEP. Fact Sheet on Climate Change: Consequences for the future. Available from: http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf Key literature is available at the following website: http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 27 15. van Aalst, M. (2006) The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters Disasters, Volume 30, Issue 1, Page 5-18, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00303.x 16. Carter, T.R., R.N. Jones, X. Lu, S. Bhadwal, C. Conde, L.O. Mearns, B.C. O’Neill, M.D.A. Rounsevell and M.B. Zurek, 2007: New Assessment Methods and the Characterisation of Future Conditions. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 133171. Comprehensive Bibliography a) Vulnerability and vulnerability assessments 1. Adger, N. (2006) Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change. 16 268–281 2. Adger, N. Kelly, P. (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47: 325–352, 2000. 3. Frank Thomalla, Tom Downing, Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Guoyi Han, Johan Rockström (2006) Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation Disasters 30 (1) , 39–48 doi:10.1111/j.14679523.2006.00305.x accessed via Blackwell Synergy 17. Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A. Velichko, 2007: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 211-272. 4. Lance Gunderson, C S Holling, L Pritchard, and G D Peterson. Resilience in The Earth system: biological and ecological dimensions of global environmental change, Volume 2, pp 530–531 5. Leary et al (Eds.) (2008) For whom the bell tolls: vulnerabilities in a changing climate in Climate Change and Vulnerability. 6. PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (2000), Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems. PIK report 59. Available from http://www.pikpotsdam.de/research/publications/pikreports/.files/pr59.pdf b) Social and gendered vulnerability 7. Dankelman, Irene, “Climate change: learning from gender analysis and womenʼs experiences of organizing for sustainable development,” Gender & Development, Vol. 10, No. 2, July 2002. 8. DAW and UN/ISDR, “Environmental Management and the Mitigation of Natural Disasters: A Gender Perspective“Report of the Expert group Meeting, Ankara, Turkey, 69 November 2001. 9. Denton, Fatma. Climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation: why does gender matter? Gender and Development, Volume 10, Number 2, 1 July 2002 , pp. 10-20(11) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 28 10. FAO. Final Report on Study on livelihood systems assessment, vulnerable groups profiling and livelihood adaptation to climate hazard and long term climate change in drought prone areas of NW Bangladesh (2006) (pdf) 11. IUCN, “Gender Aspects of Climate Change,” March (http://www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2007/03/7_gender_climate_change.pdf) 2007 12. Kates, R. (2000) Cautionary Tales: Climate Change and the Global Poor. Climatic Change (45) 5-17 13. Lynn, Kathy. Disasters and the Cycle of Poverty: Understanding Urban, Rural, and Gender Aspects of Social Vulnerability. Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon. September 2005. Available online: http://gdnonline.org/resources/lynndisasters_poverty_9_20-05.pdf 14. Sperling, F. (ed.), 2003. Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation. Inter-agency report. 15. UNEP (2007), Global Environment Outlook 4, EarthScan, London. Chapter 7, Vulnerability of People and the Environment: Challenges and Opportunities 16. Willows, R.I. and R.K. Connell. (eds.). 2003. Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making. UKCIP Technical Report. UKCIP, Oxford. c) Indicators 17. Adger, N. Brooks, G. Bentham, M. Agnew and S. Eriksen (2004) New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research 18. Brooks, N. Adger, W.N. and Kelly, P. (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change Part A Volume 15, Issue 2, Pages 151-163 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006 19. Carpenter, S. B. Walker, J. Anderies, and N. Abel (2001) From Metaphor to Measurement: Resilience of What to What? Ecosystems (2001) 4: 765–781. DOI: 10.1007/s10021-001-0045-9 20. Downing, T. and Ziervogel, G. (n.d.) Training Module: Vulnerability Indices and Mapping. Prepared for the GECAFS Project. Available from vulnerabilitynet.org. 21. Downing, T. and Patwardhan, A. (2005) Assessing vulnerability for climate change adaptation. Adaptation Planning Framework Technical Paper 3. Available from, http://www.undp.org/gef/undpgef_publications/publications/apf%20technical%20paper03.pdf. 22. Malone, E.L. and E.L. La Rovere, (2005), Assessing current and changing socio-economic conditions. Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies Policies and Measures, B. Lim, E. Spanger-Siegfried, I. Burton, E. Malone and S. Huq, Eds. 23. Nicholls, R.J., Hansen, S.E., Lowe, J., Vaughan, D.A., Lenton, T., Ganopolski, A., Tol, R.S.A. and Vafeidis, A.T., (2006), Metrics for assessing the economic benefits of climate change policies: sea level rise, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 29 24. Stephen, L. and Downing, T.E. (2001). Getting the scale right: a comparison of analytical methods for vulnerability assessment and household level targeting. Disasters, 25(2), 113-135. 25. Villa, F. and McLeod, H. (2002) Environmental Vulnerability Indicators for Environmental Planning and Decision-Making: Guidelines and Applications. Environmental Management (29) 3, 335–348. DOI: 10.1007/s00267-001-0030-2 d) Impacts and Vulnerability - Agriculture/food security 26. Bohle, H., Downing, T.E. and Watts, M. (1994). Climate change and social vulnerability: the sociology and geography of food insecurity. Global Environmental Change, 4(1), 3748 27. Challinor, A. T. Wheeler, C. Garforth, P. Craufurd and A. Kassam (2007) Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change, Climatic Change (83) 3 28. Ericksen, P.J. (2006) Assessing the vulnerability of food systems to global environmental change: a conceptual and methodological review. GECAFS International Project Office. Available from: http://gecafs.org/publications/Publications/GECAFS_Working_Paper_3_Ericksen_July_2 006.pdf 29. Anim-Kwapong, G. and Frimpong, E. Vulnerability of agriculture to climate changeimpact of climate change on cocoa production. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment under the Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP). Available from: http://www.nlcap.net/fileadmin/NCAP/Countries/Ghana/COCOA_DRAFT_FINAL_REPOR T.pdf e) Adaptation - Agriculture/food security 30. CIDA (2005) Indicators and Strategies for Adapting to Climate Variability in Food Security Programming for Sub-Saharan Africa (from vulnerabilitynet.org) 31. Downing, T. (2003) Lessons from Early Warning and Food Security for Understanding Adaptation to Climate Change: Towards a Vulnerability/Adaptation Science? in Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development Smith, J., Klein, R., and Huq, S.(eds) ISBN 978-1-86094-373-7 32. FAO, (2007) Adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forestry and fisheries: Perspective, framework and priorities. 33. I. Burton and B. Lim, Achieving Adequate Adaptation in Agriculture. Climatic Change, SpringerNetherlands, (http://www.springerlink.com/content/p9154q7283131584/fulltext.pdf) 34. Jarvis, A. et al., (2006) Agriculture, Risk and Climate Change. Available from : http://www.cgiar.org/pdf/2006_Jarvis%20and%20othersAg_Risk_ClimateChange_2006_FINAL.pdf 35. Leary et al., (eds.) (2007) Climate Change and Adaptation, Chapter 9 “Using seasonal weather forecasts for adapting food production to climate variability and Climate Change in Nigeria” UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 30 36. Smit (2002) Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Volume 7, Number 1 / March, 2002 37. Smit, B. 1994. Climate, compensation and agriculture. In Improving Responses to Atmospheric Extremes: The Role of Insurance and Compensation. Workshop Proceedings. J. McCulloch and D. Etkin (eds.).The Climate Institute, Environment Canada, Toronto. 38. Smit, B. 1999. Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada. A Report to the Adaptation Liaison Office. f) Impacts and Vulnerability - Water resources and quality 39. Ebi, K. Meehl, G., Bachelet, D., et al. 2007. Regional Impacts of Climate Change: Four Case Studies in the United States. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington Virginia 40. Fulu Tao, Masayuki Yokozawa, Yousay Hayashi and Erda Lin, A Perspective on Water Resources in China: Interactions between Climate Change and Soil Degradation (http://www.springerlink.com/content/q1wg4j22n4t95267/fulltext.pdf) 41. Kabat et al. (2002) Coping with Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change in Water Management: A Scoping Paper. International Secretariat of the Dialogue on Water and Climate 42. RAND Corporation. Preparing for an Uncertain Future Climate in the Inland Empire Identifying Robust Water-Management Strategies http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/2008/RAND_DB550.pdf 43. Leary et al. (2008) Climate Change and Vulnerability. g) Adaptation - Water resources and quality 44. Global Water Partnership Policy Brief 5, Climate Change Adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management – An Initial Overview. 45. Muller, M. Adapting to climate change: water management for urban resilience. Environment & Urbanization, IIED, Vol 19(1): 99–113 http://eau.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/19/1/99 DOI: 10.1177/0956247807076726 46. WaterNet (2001). Integrated Water Resources Management: Theory, Practice, Cases. Proceedings of the Second WaterNet/WARFSA Symposium, Cape Town, RSA; 30–31 October 47. Climate Change Adaptation and Water Resources Management in West Africa http://www.nlcap.net/fileadmin/NCAP/News/032135.070920.NCAP_West_Africa_Clima te_Change_Writeshop_Report_English_Version.v1.pdf 48. IBID. Chapter I: impact of climate change and variability on water resources in West Africa watersheds 49. IBID. Chapters II- V: practical measures for adaptation and adaptive management UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 31 h) Impacts and vulnerability - Coastal zone development 50. Adger, W.N. Terry P. Hughes, Carl Folke, Stephen R. Carpenter, Johan Rockström. SocialEcological Resilience to Coastal Disasters. Science 12 August 2005: Vol. 309. no. 5737, pp. 1036 – 1039 DOI: 10.1126/science.1112122 51. IPCC 4AR 2007, Ch6- Coastal systems and low-lying areas and WGI: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter5.pdf 52. Klein, R.J.T. and R.J. Nicholls, (1999): Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio, 28(2), 182–187. 53. Perez, R. et al. (1999) Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines coastal sector. Climate Research. Available from: http://www.intres.com/articles/cr/12/c012p097.pdf 54. Najjar , R. et al. (2000) The potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Climate Research. 14:219–233 i) Adaptation - Coastal zone development 55. Klein, R.J.T., R.J. Nicholls and N. Mimura, (1999): Coastal adaptation to climate change: can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied? Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4(3–4), 239–252. 56. Laffoley, D., et al. (2005) The MarClim Project, working today for nature tomorrow. UKCIP (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/153.pdf) 57. OCED (2003) Development and climate change in Bangladesh: Focus on coastal flooding and the sundarbans. Available from, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/55/21055658.pdf j) Impacts and vulnerability - Ecosystems and Natural resources management 58. M. Scheffer, S.Carpenter², J.Foley, C.Folke, & B.n Walker (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature (413) 59. Rosenzweig, C., G. Casassa, D.J. Karoly, A. Imeson, C. Liu, A. Menzel, S. Rawlins, T.L. Root, B. Seguin, P. Tryjanowski, 2007: Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, 60. von Maltitz, G and Scholes, R. (2008) Vulnerability of southern African biodiversity to climate change in Climate Change and Vulnerability. Leary, N. et al. eds 61. Walmsley, C. A., Smithers, R. J., Berry, P. M., Harley, M., Stevenson, M. J., Catchpole, R. (2007) Monarch (Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change): a synthesis for biodiversity conservation UKCIP. 62. Rogers, C. and McCarty, J. (2000) Climate Change and Ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research. Vol. 14: 235–244 Available from http://www.intres.com/articles/cr/14/c014p235.pdf UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 32 63. McKenney-Easterling, M. et al. (2000) The potential impacts of climate change and variability on forests and forestry in the Mid- Atlantic Region. Climate Research 14:195– 206. Available from http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/14/c014p235.pdf . 64. Reid et al., (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis A Report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Available from: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf k) Adaptation - Ecosystems and Natural resources management 65. NCAP. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment relative to Land Management in Ghana. Available from, http://www.nlcap.net/fileadmin/NCAP/Countries/Ghana/LAND_MANAGEMENT_DRAFT _FINAL_REPORT.pdf. 66. Leary et al., (eds.) (2008) Climate Change and Adaptation 67. Chp.2 “Adapting conservation strategies to climate change in Southern Africa” 68. Ch. 14 “Spillovers and trade-offs of adaptation in the Pantabangan- Carranglan watershed of the Philippines” AIACC Working Paper Available from, http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP32_Lasco. pdf. l) Impacts and Vulnerability – Public Health 69. Bernard SM, Samet JM, Grambsch A, Ebi KL, Romieu I. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 2001; 109(Suppl 2):199–210. 70. Bettina Menne and Roberto Bertollini . Health and climate change: a call for action http://www.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/331/7528/1283.pdf 71. Chan, Ebi, et al., (1999) An Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate Change and Infectious Diseases. Environmental Health Perspectives ; 107(5): 329–337 72. Hajat S, Ebi K, Kovats S, Menne B, Edwards S, Haines A. The human health consequences of flooding in Europe and the implications for public health: A review of the evidence. Appl Environ Sci Public Health 2003; 1(1):13–21. 73. Health effects of climate change in the UK 2008: an update of the Department of Health report 2001/2002. http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAnd Guidance/DH_080702 74. McMichael, AJ, A. Haines, R. Slooff, S. Kovats (Eds.) (1996) Climate Change and Human Health. World Health Organization, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environmental Programme. 75. WHO (2005) Health and climate change: the now and how. A policy action guide http://www.euro.who.int/document/E87872.pdf 76. WHO (2007) Environment and health risks from climate change and variability in Italy http://www.euro.who.int/document/E90707.pdf UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 33 77. WHO (in collaboration with UNEP and WMO), 2003. Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses. Summary. World Health Organization - Europe, Rome. http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climchange.pdf m) Adaptation – Public Health 78. Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward, 2007. Human Health. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 391431 79. Leary et al., (eds.) (2008) Climate Change and Adaptation. Earthscan, London: UK. 80. IBID. Chapter 6 “Climate, malaria, and cholera in the Lake Victoria region: Adapting to climate risks”. AIACC working paper available online from: http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP_No012.p df 81. IBID. Chapter 16 “Adapting to dengue risk in the Caribbean”. AIACC working paper available online from: http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP33_Taylor. pdf 82. WHO (2005) Climate change and adaptation strategies for human health. More information online: http://www.euro.who.int/globalchange/Publications/20051202_3 n) Impacts and Vulnerability - Disaster risk management 83. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davies, I. and Wisner, B. (1994). At Risk – Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters, London: Routledge 84. Cannon, T. (1994). Vulnerability analysis and the explanation of natural disasters. In Varley, A., editor, Disasters development and environment. Chichester: John Wiley, 1330 85. Madeleen Helmer and Dorothea Hilhorst (2006) Natural disasters and climate change. Disasters, Volume 30, Issue 1, Page 1-4, Mar 2006, doi: 10.1111/j.14679523.2006.00302.x 86. Schipper, L. and Pelling, M. (2006) Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration. Disasters. 30(1): 19−38 (http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.14679523.2006.00304.x?cookieSet=1) 87. van Aalst, M. (2006) The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters Disasters, Volume 30, Issue 1, Page 5-18, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00303.x (accessed via Blackwell Synergy) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 34 o) Adaptation - Disaster risk management 88. DFID, 2006. Reducing the Risk of Disasters – Helping to Achieve Sustainable Poverty Reduction in a Vulnerable World: A Policy Paper. Available from http://www.unisdr.org/news/DFID-reducing-risk-of-disasters.pdf 89. Ebi KL, Schmier JK. A stitch in time: improving public health early warning systems for extreme weather events. Epidemiologic Reviews 90. Environmental Sustainability and Disaster Risk Reduction, summary of linkages. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/partner-netw/enviroment/ISDR-environment-and-DRR.pdf 91. Manyena, S. (2006) The concept of resilience revisited. Disasters, 30(4): 433−450 92. Maskrey, A. (1989) Disaster Mitigation: A Community-based Approach. Oxfam, Oxford. 93. Millenniuim Ecosystem Asssesment, 16. Regulation of Natural Hazards in Current State & Trends Assessment 94. Red Cross (2003) Preparedness for Climate Change: Implications for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies http://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/File/reports/preparedness_climate_change.p df 95. Shaw R. and Goda K. (2004) From disaster to sustainable civil society: the Kobe experience. Disaster, 28 (19): 16-40. 96. Shaw, R. and Okazaki, K., eds. (2004) Sustainable Community Based Disaster Management (CBDM) Practices in Asia: A User’s Guide. Kobe: United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office. 97. UNISDR Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/docs/HFA-brochureEnglish.pdf p) Urban vulnerability: Settlements, infrastructure and planning 98. de Sherbinin, A., A. Schiller, and A. Pulsipher (2007), The vulnerability of global cities to climate hazards. Environ. Urban., 12, pp.93-102 99. Nicholls, R. (1995) Coastal megacities and climate change. GeoJournal. (3) 3 : 369-379 100. O’Brien, K. and Leichenko, R. 2000. “Double Exposure: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change Within the Context of Globalization.” Global Environmental Change 10: 221 - 232. 101. Pelling, M. (2003) The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social Resilience. London: Earthscan. 102. Satterthwaite, D., S. Huq, H. Reid, M. Pelling, and P. Romero Lankao (2007), Adapting to climate change in urban areas: the possibilities and constraints in low- and middleincome nations. IIED Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series, Climate Change and Cities. 103. Schiller, A. et al. The Vulnerability of Global Cities to Climate Hazards. Environment and Urbanization 2007; 19; 39 DOI: 10.1177/0956247807076725 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 35 Part 4: Climate Change Adaptation - What does it mean to adapt, and what are the key premises regarding the need to build adaptive capacity in UNEP projects? Part 4 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on the key premises, issues, and drivers associated with adaptation to climate change in natural and social systems. As the previous Parts of this Sourcebook have touched on, climate variability and future climate change - together with other non-climatic stresses - produce actual or potentially adverse impacts such that planned efforts to adapt to those impacts are needed. Individuals and communities have been adapting for millennia to climate variability, but in no way can it be argued that certain regions, particularly in developing countries, are well adapted to current climate conditions. Overview of key issues and knowledge a) Introduction As background to a discussion about adaptation there are few key terms that are most helpful if defined from the very beginning. By the term “adaptation” what is meant is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Both near-term and long-term climatic stimuli are considered. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation (Smit et al., 2000; Klein et al, 20057). When describing a system’s ability to adjust in response to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences we use the concept of adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity in ecological systems is related to genetic diversity, biological diversity, and the heterogeneity of landscape mosaics. In social systems, the existence of institutions and networks that learn and store knowledge and experience, create flexibility in problem solving and balance power among interest groups play an important role in adaptive capacity (www.resalliance.org/565.php). Enhancing a system’s adaptive capacity is important to ensure that the vulnerability of the region to future climate change risks is reduced. Resilience is key to building adaptive capacity. Resilience is the magnitude of disturbance that can be tolerated before a socioecological system (SES) moves to a different region of state space controlled by a different set of processes (IPCC 4AR). Systems with high adaptive capacity are most able to re-configure themselves without significant declines in crucial 7 Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed. Also referred to as proactive adaptation. Autonomous adaptation – Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Also referred to as spontaneous adaptation. Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state. (IPCC, 2007) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 36 functions. Any loss of resilience, and therefore of adaptive capacity, is loss of opportunity resulting in constrained options during periods of re-organisation and renewal, and an inability of the system to do different things. www.resalliance.org/565.php Key premises for adaptation: Countries are maladapted to current and future climate risks National policy context does not adequately incorporate climate change risks Serious physical impacts accompany extreme climatic events Poor populations at greatest risk to climate shocks and hazards In many countries, the capacity to adapt to climate change is often limited by a lack of resources, poor institutions and inadequate infrastructure, amongst other things Gendered access to resources influences land tenure rights, education, availability of credit undermines women’s adaptive capacity b) What does the literature say about adaptation and adaptive capacity? Adaptation can be either reactive or anticipatory. Reactive adaptation occurs after the initial impacts of climate change have become manifest, while anticipatory (or proactive) adaptation takes place before impacts are apparent. A second distinction can be based on the system in which the adaptation takes place: the natural system (in which adaptation is by definition reactive) or the human system (in which both reactive and anticipatory adaptation are observed). Within the human system, adaptation can be motivated by private or public interests (Klein et al., 2006). Adger et al. (2005) examine criteria for the definition of “successful” adaptation, showing how they vary with spatial scale and are interpreted and weighted differently by different interest groups. Brooks et al. (2005) explore factors affecting adaptive capacity at the national scale including a set of calibrated indicators of adaptive capacity, showing that adaptive capacity is associated primarily not with measures of wealth, but indicators of governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. Since adaptation does not occur instantaneously, the relationship between adaptive capacity and vulnerability depends on timescales and hazards. The vulnerability, or potential vulnerability, of a system to climate change that is associated with anticipated hazards in the medium- to long-term will depend on that system’s success at anticipatory adaptation (Brooks et al., 2005). There are various ways to classify or distinguish between adaptation options. First, depending on the timing, goal and motive of its implementation, adaptation can be either reactive or anticipatory. Reactive adaptation occurs after the initial impacts of climate change have become manifest, whilst anticipatory (or proactive) adaptation takes place before impacts are apparent. A second distinction can be based on the system in which the adaptation takes place: the natural system (in which adaptation is by definition reactive) or the human system (in which both reactive and anticipatory adaptation are observed). Within the human system a third distinction can be based on whether the adaptation decision is motivated by private or public interests. Private decision-makers include both individual households and commercial companies, whilst public interests are served by governments at all levels. The Figure below shows examples of adaptation activities for each of the five types of adaptation that have thus been defined (from Klein et al, 2005). UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 37 A key point is that adaptation to climate change is an ongoing and reiterative process that includes information development, awareness raising, planning, design, implementation and monitoring. Reducing vulnerability requires having mechanisms in place and technologies, expertise and other resources available to complete each part of this process. The mere existence of technologies for adaptation does not mean that every vulnerable community, sector or country has access to these options or is in a position to implement them. c) Adaptive Capacity In the past, adaptations to either climate variability or change (i.e., the reduction of vulnerability to climate) have mostly been responsive (i.e., not anticipatory), mainly driven by record-breaking extreme weather events (e.g., floods of 1953 or 2000 in Britain, extended drought in Australia, etc.) or market changes (e.g., changes in insurance premiums). As awareness about the potential impacts of human-induced climate change has grown (at different levels throughout countries and sectors), so has the desire to plan (in advance) for the impacts of climate change so that the negative hazards can be mitigated and the benefits enhanced (Scheraga and Grambsch, 1998; Dessai et al) Rogers and McCarty (2000) suggest similar uncertainties and because of these adaptation options are limited and their effectiveness unknown. Building resilience is one of the main ways to ensure wildlife and habitat adaptation and this can be achieved by addressing existing stresses on ecosystems. The primary anthropogenic stresses are land-use changes that cause loss of biodiversity, disruption of carbon, nitrogen and other biogeochemical cycles, human-caused nonnative species invasions, and releases of toxic substances. Reducing the impacts of these non-climate stresses on ecosystems would then buffer ecosystems from potential harmful impacts due to climate change. The notion of adaptive capacity has brought to light the importance of considering the linkages between adaptation and development. It is recognised that climate change poses a threat to important development issues such as water supply, food security, human health, natural resources and protection against natural hazards. This recognition has moved adaptation from being the “handmaiden to impacts research in the mitigation context” (Burton et al., 2002) to an activity that is considered crucial within the broader context of sustainable development. The link between adaptation and sustainable development is particularly relevant when seeking to enhance the capacity of countries and communities to adapt to climate change, which is often limited by a lack of resources, poor institutions and UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 38 inadequate infrastructure, amongst other things (Smith et al., 2003). In addition, the notion of adaptive capacity has helped to demonstrate that adaptation is not a new activity only relevant when addressing climate change, but instead an ongoing process to reduce vulnerability both to today’s and tomorrow’s climate. (from Klein et al, 2005) ) Vulnerability before project Increased resilience through adaptation measures Vulnerability after project Historical climate Coping range changes by development only (no project) (mean and variability) System coping range (Resilience) Adaptation measure: additional cost on development Today’s climate Time Future climate scenario GEF Project d) Criteria for selecting adaptation strategies Work on adaptation so far has addressed the impacts of climate change, rather than sufficiently addressing the underlying factors that cause vulnerability to it. While there is a significant push all around for adaptation to be better placed in development planning, there is a missing step if vulnerability reduction is not considered central to this. A successful adaptation process will require adequately addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability. A sustainable adaptation process appears to first require adjustments in policies, institutions and attitudes that establish enabling conditions, and second be accompanied by eventual technological and infrastructural changes. An effective adaptation process would therefore hinge on the ability of livelihoods, which includes social networks, cultural traditions, and activities that provide food and income, to be sufficiently flexible so that no adverse impacts of climate change are discernable on the social system. Such enabling conditions would clearly facilitate a sustainable development process, but would also require overcoming factors that cause vulnerability to climate change, such as differential access to resources based on gender, age, belief systems or other characteristics, state of environment in which people live, viability of livelihoods in existing economic systems (Schipper, 2007). UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 39 In thinking about adaptation, we often ask: Who or what adapts? How does adaptation occur? How good is the adaptation? Generally circumscribing the overarching question “what is adaptation?”. The figure above captures this discussion, and speaks to the critical element of identifying adaptation options or measures to be recommended as part of a response strategy. This entails evaluating a strategy based on critieria that depends on the tools being used as well as the context in which they are being applied. Evaluation of adaptation options can be based on criteria such as costs, benefits, equity, efficiency, urgency, and implementability, for example (Smit et al., 2000). e) Looking ahead A firm grasp on how the climate is changing, the scientific and normative underpinnings of impacts and vulnerability, and methods for assessing human or ecological vulnerability to climate change impacts and risks informs the adaptation identification and planning process. The first few sections in this sourcebook provide a knowledge based for understanding vulnerability and adaptation. The next sections highlight risks to UNEP portfolio, as well as methods for climate-proofing and integrating adaptation. Risks included in section Part 5 and will be elaborated upon as programs of work begin to screen existing and pipelined programs for vulnerability to climate change using the available and developing new climate-screening tools referenced in Part 6. With this evolving body of knowledge in hand, UNEP project managers can begin to apply existing adaptation frameworks in support of its MTS for 2008-2013 as well as meet the objectives of the Adaptation Action Plan to build key adaptive capacity of the developing world to climate change, increasing ecosystem resilience, reduce the risk of climate-related disasters and conflicts, and mobilize and manage knowledge for adaptation policy and planning across UN bodies. Climate Change and Development – Adapting by Reducing Vulnerability (CC-DARE), a joint initiative of UNEP and UNDP, is a key example of integrating adaptation into environment and economic development plans. The literature in this Part of the Sourcebook includes academic articles that explore the conceptual relationship between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation to climate change. Many emphasize the linkage between sustainable development and adaptation planning, and the role that a society’s socio-economic context and social vulnerability play in its capacity to adapt. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 40 Key literature 18. Adger, N. Hug, S., Brown, K., Conway, D., Hulme, M. (2003) Adapting to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies (3)3, 179-195. 19. Brooks, N. (2006) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 38 20. UNEP Fact Sheet on Climate Change: Living with climate change. Available from: http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf 21. Kane and Yohe, 2000 S.M. Kane and G.W. Yohe, Societal adaptation to climate variability and change: an introduction, Climatic Change 45 (2000), pp. 1–4. 22. Larson, M. (2002) Transforming power relationships: building capacity for ecological security in Gender, Development, and Climate Change Maskia, R. (ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK, 23. Denton, F. (2002) Climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation: why does gender matter? in Gender, Development, and Climate Change Maskia, R. (ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK, 24. Roy, M. and Venema, H. (2002) Reducing risk and vulnerability to climate change in India: the capabilities approach in Gender, Development, and Climate Change Maskia, R. (ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK, Comprehensive Bibliography 1. Adger, N. Hug, S., Brown, K., Conway, D., Hulme, M. (2003) Adapting to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies (3)3, 179-195. 2. Adger, N. Kelly, P. (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47: 325–352, 3. Adger, N. Net al. (2005), Successful adaptation to climate change across scales, Global Environmental Change 15 , pp. 77–86 4. Brooks, N. (2006) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 38 5. Burton, I. et al. (2002) From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy (2) 145–159 6. Eakin, H. and Bojórquez-Tapia, L. (2008) Insights into the composition of household vulnerability from multicriteria decision analysis Global Environmental Change Volume 18, Issue 1, , Pages 112-127 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.09.001 7. Füssel, H. and Klein, R. (2006) Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments an Evolution of Conceptual Thinking. Climatic Change (75) 301-329. 8. Graham, A. (2001). Gender mainstreaming guidelines for disaster management programmes: a principled socio-economic and gender analysis approach Paper prepared for the Expert Working Group meeting, Ankara, Turkey. Available through the UN Key literature is available at the following website: http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 41 Division for the Advancement of www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/csw/env_manage/documents.html Women: 9. Kane and Yohe, 2000 S.M. Kane and G.W. Yohe, Societal adaptation to climate variability and change: an introduction, Climatic Change 45 (2000), pp. 1–4. 10. Manyena, S. (2006) The concept of resilience revisited. Disasters, 30(4): 433−450 11. Preparation Workshop : Adaptation Priorities for Jamaica, 7 SGP projects currently under implementation Projects in Biodiversity and Land Degradation GEF focal areas. Available from: http://www.undp.org/gef/adaptation/index.htm 12. Rob de Loë, Reid Kreutzwiser and Liana Moraru, Adaptation options for the near term: climate change and the Canadian water sector Global Environmental Change , Volume 11, Issue 3, October 2001, Pages 231-245 13. Röhr , U. Gender and Climate Change - a Forgotten Issue? Tiempo Climate Newswatch. Available from: http://www.tiempocyberclimate.org/newswatch/comment050711.htm 14. Scheffer, M S.Carpenter, J.Foley, C.Folke, & B.n Walker (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature (413) 15. Schipper, L. (2007) Climate Change Adaptation and Development: Exploring the Linkages 16. Smit, B. and Wandel, J. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability Global Environmental Change, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2006, Pages 282-292 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008 . 17. Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R., and Wandel, J. (2000). An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability. Climatic Change 45:223-251 18. UNEP Fact Sheet on Climate Change: Living with climate change Avaiable from: (http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf 19. Vincent, K. (2007) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale Global Environmental Change Volume 17, Issue 1, Pages 12-24 20. Vogel , C. (2007) Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships Global Environmental Change, Volume 17, Issues 34, Pages 349-364 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.002 21. Ziervogel, G. Sukaina Bharwani and Thomas E. Downing. Adapting to climate variability: Pumpkins, people and policy. Natural Resources Forum 30 (2006) 294–305 (available from http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.14778947.2006.00121.x%40narf.2007.31.issue-v1) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 42 Part 5: Climate Change Risks - What are the major types of climate risks faced in UNEP’s portfolio? Part 5 of this Sourcebook provides an overview of the types of climatic risks that need to be considered in future UNEP project/programme development. Overview of key issues and knowledge a) Introduction Based on UNEP’s action plan on climate change adaptation, its essential purpose in mainstreaming adaptation is to meet the twin needs of vulnerable countries for environment protection and economic development, and assisting them in integrating adaptation into their multi-faceted planning and deliberative processes. As noted in Part 2 of this Sourcebook, the following 3 pillars were established to reflect this purpose: 1) Building key adaptive capacity of the developing world 2) Increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk of climate-related disasters 3) Mobilizing and using knowledge for adaptation planning The understanding and identification of climate risks are prerequisite in fulfilling the purpose and supporting pillars. The following sections summarize climate risks that influence ecosystem functioning and suggest implications for task managers following UNEP’s Medium Term Strategy (MTS) and the recent Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation. b) Main climate risks for consideration (from Schneider et al., 2007-unless otherwise noted) Regions that are already at high risk from observed climate variability and climate change are more likely to be adversely affected in the near future by projected changes in climate and increases in the magnitude and/or frequency of already damaging extreme events. There is high confidence that developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. Less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity. There is new evidence that observed climate change is likely to have already increased the risk of certain extreme events such as heatwaves, and it is more likely than not that warming has contributed to the intensification of some tropical cyclones, with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence). Changes in arid areas (as a result of climate change) are relatively small. This follows from the fact that climate change results in increasing precipitation, but also increasing evaporation (as a result of temperature increase). For desertification, however, the increase in arid areas is less important than the pressure on these areas. Therefore, the combination of agricultural land expansion in arid areas leads to an increased vulnerability to climatic shocks (GEO-4). There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high-mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence). UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 43 There is wide agreement that it will be much more difficult for both human and natural systems to adapt to larger magnitudes of global mean temperature change than to smaller ones, and that adaptation will be more difficult and/or costly for faster warming rates than for slower rates. Systemic thresholds may lead to large and widespread consequences that may be considered as ‘dangerous’. Examples include climate impacts such as those arising from ice sheet disintegration leading to large sea level rises or changes to the carbon cycle, or those affecting natural and managed ecosystems, infrastructure and tourism in the Arctic. Smooth and gradual climate change may also lead to damages that are considered unacceptable beyond a certain point. For instance, even a gradual and smooth increase of sea-level rise would eventually reach a level that certain stakeholders would consider unacceptable. UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO-4) highlights the fact that ecological and social systems can reach tipping points beyond which there are abrupt, accelerating, or potentially irreversible changes. Potential tipping points include simultaneous crop failures in different regions, a possible flip by the Amazon Basin from its present wet phase to a dry one, with profound implications elsewhere as well. The GEO-4 scenarios show an increasing risk of crossing such tipping points due in part to both climatic and non-climatic drivers of change. The following represents a possible summary: Climate risks to ecosystems, regions, and countries: This includes exposure of investments to climate risks, as well as the identification of climate risks to agency activities; Direct threats to project performance: this includes development initiatives face important climate risks, including direct threat (investments irreversibly damaged by flood/drought), under-performance (investments cannot deliver projected benefits because of climate conditions), maladaptation (investments that create newvulnerability by promoting activities in disaster-prone areas) c) Managing risks to UNEP projects for task managers Climate proofing means identifying risks to a project, or any other specified natural or human asset, as a consequence of both current and future climate variability and extremes. It involves ensuring that those risks are reduced to acceptable levels through long-lasting and environmentally sound, economically viable, and socially acceptable changes implemented at one or more of the following stages in the project cycle: planning, design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. UNEP’s GEO-4 scenarios point to both risks and opportunities in the future and to the need to account for interlinkages among systems in pursuing a more sustainable path. Climate change is seen as the dominant entry point for managing interlinkages because it affords a conceptual space to address both mitigation and adaptation challenges. Task managers will need to take into consideration the following proposed actions that interface with climate hazards: Integrated water resources management Integrated coastal zone management Protecting biodiversity UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 44 Coping with melting glaciers and mountain disasters Urbanization in developing countries Reducing risk of climate-related disasters It is important to note that UNEP’s Medium Term Strategy contains cross-cutting thematic priorities related to climate risks, as noted below: Climate change- strengthen ability of countries to integrate climate change responses into national development processes Disasters and conflicts- minimize environmental threats to human well-being arising from the environmental causes and consequences of conflicts and disasters emphasis on increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk of climate-related disasters. Ecosystem management- promote and enable countries to utilize the ecosystem approach to enhance human well-being Environmental governance- strengthen environmental governance at country, regional, and global levels to address agreed environmental priorities Harmful substances and hazardous waste-minimize the impact of harmful substances and hazardous waste on the environment and human beings Resource efficiency- sustainable consumption and production-natural resources are produced, processed, and consumed in a more environmentally sustainable way. One Institutional mechanism: Ensuring gender responsiveness environmental management partly through building capacity of UNEP staff with regards to gender issues and analysis. A sample of tools for vulnerability assessment is shown in the following table. We first have included brief descriptions of the tools, and the table cross-references the tools with the different aspects of the overall process each captures: present vulnerability, problem definition, development futures, evaluation of adaptation, strategic planning, multistakeholder analysis, and stakeholder participation. As mentioned previously, the choice of methodology must be guided by the locus of the problem—the nature of the actors and their networks, the role of environmental trends and surprise, the information needs of the users, and the resources available to the team (Downing and Ziervogel). Description of tools 1. Agent-based simulation modelling – formalism of agents and their interactions at multiple levels 2. Bayesian analysis – statistical analysis used to re-assess probabilistic data in light of new data. 3. Brainstorming – free-flowing lists/diagrams of all ideas and options 4. Checklists – matrix 5. Cognitive mapping – conceptual model that incorporates diverse stakeholder perceptions 6. Cost-effectiveness/ Cost-benefit/ Expected value – econometric techniques 7. Cross-impact analysis – test robustness of risk-assessment and dependencies between events 8. Decision conferencing – quantitative analysis of options incorporating the uncertainties in interactive modes 9. Decision/probability trees – charts of relationships between decision modes; helpful for generating expected value 10. Delphi technique – range of views of experts through iterative written correspondence UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 45 11. Environmental assessment/Strategic environmental assessments – consideration of all environmental impacts taken into account before deciding on development 12. Expert judgement – the assessment of experts in the field on specific propositions 13. Focus groups – groups of stakeholders that discuss their opinions on certain topics 14. Indicators/ mapping – compilation of indicators into aggregate indices, often mapped 15. Influence diagrams/ Mapping tools – graphic identification of options when there are a number of decisions 16. Multi-criterion analysis – scoring and weighting of options using indicators and more than one decision criteria 17. Ranking/ dominance analysis/ pairwise comparisons – preference of options 18. Risk analysis – approaches to decision uncertainty including hedging and flexing, regret, minimax and maximin 19. Role-play – a participatory ‘game’ to uncover behaviour, trends and expectations 20. Scenario analysis – fuller picture of implications of uncertainty gained through simultaneous variation of key uncertainties 21. Stakeholder consultation – consultation with individuals and/or groups affected by future processes 22. Stakeholder Thematic Networks (STN) – mapping of the key actors and their interactions 23. Vulnerability profiles – mapping of the different indicators of vulnerability for different groups 24. Wealth ranking - classify members of a community into wealth categories d) Looking ahead With knowledge of climate risks to UNEP programming and available tools for assessing vulnerability to risk (as detailed in Section 6), UNEP will be better situated to build key adaptive capacity of developing countries and mobilize and use that knowledge for adaptation planning. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 46 Key literature 1. Australian Greenhouse Office, (2005).Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting an efficient adaptation response in Australia http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/risk-vulnerabilitysummary.pdf 2. Cairns, J. (2004) Ecological Tipping Points : A Major Challenge for Experimental Sciences. Asian J. Exp. Sci., Vol. 18, No. 1&2, 1-16 http://www.johncairns.net/Papers/Ecological%20Tipping%20Points.pdf 3. Cannon, T. (2002) Gender and Climate Hazards in Bangladesh in Gender, Development, and Climate Change. Rachel Masika (ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK. 4. Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A.Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810. Available from: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/ . 5. Hazards of Nature, Risks to development Available from: http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/naturaldisasters/docs/natural_disasters_evaluation.pdf Comprehensive Bibliography 1. Australian Greenhouse Office, (2005).Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting an efficient adaptation response in Australia http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/risk-vulnerabilitysummary.pdf 2. Barros, V. et al. (2008) Storm surges, rising seas and flood risks in metropolitan Buenos Aires, in Climate Change and Vulnerability. Leary et al. (eds). AIACC Working Paper No. 26 available from: http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP26_Barros %20(rev)%201.pdf 3. Cairns, J. (2004) Ecological Tipping Points : A Major Challenge for Experimental Sciences. Asian J. Exp. Sci., Vol. 18, No. 1&2, 1-16 http://www.johncairns.net/Papers/Ecological%20Tipping%20Points.pdf 4. Cannon, T. (2002) Gender and Climate Hazards in Bangladesh in Gender, Development, and Climate Change. Rachel Masika (ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK. 5. Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A.Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Key literature is available at the following website: http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 47 Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810. Available from: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/ . 6. UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook 4 : Environment for development http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/01_Environment_for_Development.pdf 7. UNFCCC (2007) Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and adaptation in developing countries. a. Chapter IV looks at the current and future impacts and vulnerabilities across these sectors in developing countries. 8. Verdin, J. et al. (2005) Climate science and famine early warning. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2005) 360, 2155–2168. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1754 (Available from: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/Climate%20Science%20and%20Famine%20EW. pdf) 9. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots project at the Center for Hazards and Risk Research at Columbia University, NY, USA, generated a global disaster risk assessment and a set of more localized or hazard-specific case studies. a. Synthesis report from: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/hazards/hotspots/synthesisreport.pdf b. 6 case study reports from: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDISMGMT/Resources/0821363328.pd f?resourceurlname=0821363328.pdf i. Nichols, R. Chapter 3: Storm Surges in Coastal Areas p.79-108 c. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis Data available from http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/research/hotspots/coredata.html. 10. Hazards of Nature, Risks to development Available from: http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/naturaldisasters/docs/natural_disasters_evaluation.pdf UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 48 Part 6: Climate Change Tools - What tools are currently available for screening projects regarding the integration of climate risks into project design? Part 6 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on tools and methods for screening projects for adaptation to climate change concerns. The information presented in this Part of the Sourcebook draws heavily from a 2007 workshop on Sharing Climate Adaptation Tools: Improving decision-making for development organized by the World Bank, the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and the Institute for Development Studies. The workshop outputs provide a valuable synthesis of available tools and are described below. After each tool description, we have listed a website for more information. Overview of key issues and knowledge a) Introduction Tools range from broad information providers on climate projections (eg PRECIS), disasters (eg UN-ISDR) and on vulnerability (eg CAIT, ILRI-et al), through to those targeting project design (eg CRiSTAL, UNDP, ADAPT, USAID Guidebook), others on creating spaces/platforms for decision support, and others that took a screening approach to evaluate portfolios and justify design changes (eg DGIS, ORCHID). A broadly common approach is evident that integrates climate-related impacts as an additional stressor; adaptive responses should therefore build into existing decision-making structures, languages, and priorities. Tools are targeting a particular niche approach or user group. Users range from vulnerable communities themselves, through to donors and partner-country policy-makers. There remains a considerable gap in existing tools in between those aimed at grassroots community level and senior officials. Champions at other levels need to be targeted users and beneficiaries, including traditional leaders at local level, through local government, and into the private sector, especially small and medium size enterprises. b) Tools for Information generation, databases and platforms Current information generation and database tools provide a wide variety of audiences with climate and vulnerability related information. For the most part, the information is open source and provides analysis across a wide variety of sectors and scales. These are not decision-making tools but rather provide donors, governments and NGOs with inputs that could be utilized for risk management and adaptation management processes. This category ranges from those databases that utilize Global Circulation Modeling (GCM) (eg. PRECIS) as well as general vulnerability and adaptation data (eg. NAPA Platform). PRECIS - Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies - UK Met Office Hadley Centre: This tool provides climate impact assessments in developing country contexts which are freely available to numerous users. The tool uses GCM (GCM) to provide grid-scale averages of spatio-temporal hydro-climatic state variables as well as soil hydrology and thermodynamics, and some vegetation dynamic variables. The tool is applicable to multiple scales, sectors and levels of screening but is limited fine/point scale information. (http://precis.metoffice.com/) Vulnerability mapping and impact assessment – ILRI, TERI, ACTS, CIAT: This tool utilizes GCM outputs, agriculture systems and land use data, GIS and vulnerability data and aims to UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 49 provide donors (and in the future, governments and NGOs) with information on key characteristics in the agriculture sector at the national level. The tool identifies vulnerable populations and, in the second phase, assesses climate change impacts and costs and benefits of potential adaptation options. At present the tool is limited to Sub-Saharan Africa and omits other key non-agricultural impacts. (http://www.dfid.gov.uk/research/mappingclimate.pdf) SERVIR Climate Change Mapping Tool - USAID, NASA, CATHALAC, IAGT: This web-based tool is intended to assist users of the USAID Climate Adaptation Guidance Manual to instantly access climate information needed to adaptation projects. The tool is an open platform which is applicable to multiple sectors and is available to various users. The current version focuses on Mesoamerica and is used by Central American disaster planners, TV weather reporters, cruise ship operators, and resource managers, and others. (http://www.servir.net/) Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) – Environment Agency, UK: Although not presented at the workshop, this tool’s applicability as a quantitative information provider is applicable to many of the approaches presented at the workshop. This computer-based information tool is open-source and is aimed at donors, governments and impact assessors. The tool provides daily, transient, climate risk information for impact assessment over the 1961-2100 time horizon and has been primarily used for water resource management, though is applicable to multiple sectors. After calibration of data, the tool provides rapid assessments to assist impacts and adaptation analysis. (www.sdsm.org.uk) Climate Analysis Indicators Tool – WRI: A vulnerability and impacts component of CAIT forms part of this a much wider tool-kit of country-level data on climate change, particularly on greenhouse gas emissions. The database includes information on historical impacts, particularly from disaster events, as well as a range of human development indices. CAIT permits manipulation of this data on a country by country basis, including cross-referencing to mitigation-related data. (http://cait.wri.org/) NAPA Platform – UNITAR: The UN’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) platform is aimed at providing informational support to NAPA country teams, implementing agencies (UNDP, UNEP and World Bank), vulnerability and adaptation experts, and other partners providing NAPA technical assistance. It aims to facilitate the delivery of technical assistance to NAPA teams formulating their NAPA documents, particularly with regards to the synthesis of existing vulnerability and adaptation information, and the formulation of relevant adaptation projects profiles. It provides multi-sectoral information aimed at the programme and project level for Least Developed Countries within the NAPA process. (www.napa-pana.org) NAPAssess- SEI: As part of SEI’s capacity building efforts around the NAPA for climate change adaptation, we developed a tool called NAPAssess that facilitates multi-criteria assessment (MCA) in a stakeholder context. The model helps stakeholders to identify vulnerable populations and potential adaptation initiatives, and then prioritize initiatives for meeting the needs of vulnerable communities in the least developed countries. The experience thus far in the countries of Yemen and Sudan suggests that NAPAssess is able to contribute to a transparent, user-friendly process for developing, weighting and applying adaptation project evaluation criteria and it can be helpful for organizing and simplifying the entire NAPA process. (www.sei-us.org/climate-and-energy/selected-projects.html) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 50 Climate envelopes/adaptation risk screening platform (CIEAR) – SEI: This open platform is a work in progress, with the intention to include a collection of software tools (e.g., risk mapping, MCA), data bases (e.g., criteria, adaptation actions), guidance, examples/prototypes and communications. It is intended to support analysts who advise a range of final users in multiple sectors at multiple scales. The risk modules tend to focus on fairly immediate links between climate episodes and trends and impacts affecting environmental services, economic activities and livelihoods. The tool platform will be designed to clarify choices in decision-making and not prescribe perfect solutions to specific risks. It has adopted a social learning and process approach to adaptation planning and decision making which incorporates project details, vulnerability data and stakeholder engagement. (www.sei.se/oxford/) Other information generation/database tools: Historical data and statistics on natural disaster occurrence and their impact since 1905 are available from the OFDA/CRED International Disasters Database (EM-DAT), maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). A wide range of historic climate data and near-term forecasting data are available through meteorological offices and through the WMO. The UNFCCC Secretariat published a Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change. The compendium includes descriptions of broad frameworks and supporting tool kits for assessments, approaches to incorporate multiple-sectors and cross-cutting issues, as well as numerous sector specific analysis tools. (Available from http://unfccc.int/adaptation/nairobi_workprogramme/compendium_on_methods_tools/ite ms/2674.php) c) Computer-based decision tools Computer-based decision tools are primarily intended to assist donors to identify climate related risks and adaptation options based on project/programme inputs. These tools typically include social vulnerability information as well as include economic analysis as part of the decision-making process to assist donors in establishing priorities. These tools are designed to incorporate various forms of data as well as inputs from various stakeholders. Whereas CRiSTAL is aimed at project-level decision-making, the SEI platform will be applicable across scales. The advantage of these models is that they allow programme staff to navigate the platform with ease and are thus more hands on, relying less on “expert advice”. CRiSTAL (Community-based Risk Screening Tool- Adaptation & Livelihoods)– IISD, IUCN, SEI, Intercooperation: This project-based tool focuses on securing livelihoods through environmental/natural resource management and is aimed at numerous users. It is currently being piloted for Nicaragua, Mali, Tanzania and Sri Lanka in sectors such as agriculture, water resource management, infrastructure, and natural resource management. The tool requires detailed project inputs and vulnerability data. The tool delivers vulnerability and livelihood profiles as well as details for project modification. A parallel tool is being planned which aims to focus on the project portfolio side which would be intended to help programme managers integrate adaptation concerns into their over project portfolio at the strategic planning level. (www.iisd.org/security/es/resilience/climate_phase2.asp) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 51 ADAPT - World Bank: This computer-based tool is multi-sectoral and currently being tested in South Asia, soon expanding to a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. The tool undertakes a sensitivity analysis for specific projects and flags activities that are sensitive to climate change as well as gives advice on adaptation activities. The tool utilizes project location and activity information which are screened through a project activity sensitivity matrix based on GCM data. The tool does not utilize specific vulnerability data or adaptation at the sectoral. ADAPT is not explicitly a decision-making tool and does not address sensitivities at the programme level. (www.worldbank.org/climatechange ). Adaptation Wizard – UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP): The Adaptation Wizard is a web-based tool that is designed to take help users gain a basic understanding of climate change as well as integrate climate risks into their decision-making. It is a high-level, generic tool that is valuable to newcomers to the climate change issue, as well as those who are preparing to adapt. The tool is specifically aimed at the UK context. It is more a decisionsupport than decision-making tool, and plays a valuable awareness-raising and educational role. The tool does walk users through an economic analysis of adaptation options and scenarios. (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/tools/adapt.asp) Country Database – UNDP-GEF: The country database aims to help UNDP offices to develop adaptation proposals and improve staff awareness on climate risks for other project design. It compiles a common set of information for each UNDP partner country, drawn from National Communications, NAPAs and other scientific studies, together with UNDP country programme information, on an easy to operate webpage format. (Database restricted to users of UNDP intranet). d) Adaptation planning and risk management processes This section describes adaptation/risk management processes that include tools that have been developed by specific international aid agencies intended to screen projects/programmes and/or develop policy priorities. Consequently, they are tailored toward the specific decision-making processes of the agency. Similar to computer-based decision tools, they rely on detailed programme/project inputs though they also facilitate greater stakeholder information. Typically these processes rely on expert advice from their respective climate change departments or outside consultants. They tend to rely more heavily on qualitative inputs while also incorporating climate science information. On the whole, these processes take longer than computer-based decision tools but are more thorough in their analysis, providing tailored recommendations for disaster risk reduction and adaptation. Climate quick scans - DGIS, The Netherlands: This paper/process based tool is aimed at donors (particularly DGIS) applicable to multiple sectors. This “quick and dirty” process draws on expert advice to screen programmes/projects in order to establish adaptation priorities and raise awareness about climate risks with partner countries. The project draws on various inputs including project/programme details, stakeholder engagement and varying levels of vulnerability data. (www.nlcap.net) Preparedness for Climate Change - Red Cross/Red Crescent (RC): This paper/process based tool is aimed at primarily at local Red Cross/Crescent societies in order to assess key climate change related risks facing vulnerable people in the country and programs of the national society. The tools draws on RC project details, national staff and the use of RC vulnerability UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 52 data to set priorities for follow-up i.e. modifications to existing programs, and to strengthen local capacity in addressing climate-related risks. The tool is primarily aimed at disaster management, health and the water & sanitation sectors. ( www.climatecentre.org) Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Manual – USAID: The Guidance Manual is aimed at USAID country missions to assist in the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in all projects. The manual is currently being tested in Honduras, South Africa, Mali and Thailand in different sectors. The manual leads project designers through a series of steps to help them understand whether their project may be vulnerable to climate variability or change. The manual encourages stakeholder engagement and provides guidance on where to find more information and assistance in gathering data. (http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/policies_prog/vulnerability.html) Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters (ORCHID) – IDS: This process-based tool is designed to be a light touch screening process for donor programs. The process utilizes quantitative inputs climate science which are applied to the risk assessment of programs usually at wide scales, and using directional trends rather than discrete figures. The tool utilizes project documents and interviews with project staff as well as past trend in vulnerability and disaster risk. ORCHID aims to raise awareness of climate risk management and future climate change among staff, to stimulate dialogue with donor partners, to integrate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies and activities. The process makes recommendations for how programs might enhance risk management through adaptive practices; cost benefit analysis and sector economic assessment are undertaken for areas where clear adaptation options can be discerned and where sufficient data is available. (www.ids.ac.uk/climatechange) Integration of climate risks into country programming – UNDP: This short briefing note provides guidance to improve the capacity of UNDP country offices to incorporate climate risks into UNDP country programming. It takes staff through a set of questions to assess whether climate risk is adequately reflected during the formulation of Common Country Assessments and UN Development Assistance Frameworks. (UNDP Intranet only) Guidance notes on tools for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction - ProVention Consortium: The Provention Consortium has recently published a comprehensive compendium of short briefing papers on tools and methods for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction. These approaches have much in common with climate change adaptation, particularly in their approach to tackling current variability, risk frameworks, and approaches to overcoming barriers to cross-sectoral work. (http://www.proventionconsortium.org/?pageid=32&projectid=1 Gender and Disaster Sourcebook- UNISDR: The Gender and Disaster Sourcebook is a electronic guide to help respond to questions about the link between gender equality and disaster risk and to understand what lessons have been learned in the field and through scientific study. The Sourcebook is still a work in progress but it does include tools like the UNCHA- Gender Equality Tool Kit, a comprehensive stand-alone document on gender mainstreaming and practical tool for gendering disaster risk management. While not climate specific, this tool has much in common with climate risk tools could be complementary to better integrate climate, gender, and disaster risk management. (www.gdnonline.org/sourcebook) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 53 Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) – UNDP: The APF provides guidance on designing and implementing projects that reduce vulnerability to climate change, by both reducing potential negative impacts and enhancing any beneficial consequences of a changing climate. It seeks to integrate national policymaking efforts with a “bottom-up” movement, focusing on the involvement of stakeholders at all stages. The flexible approach has five steps (listed in diagram at right) that can be used in different combinations according to the amount of available information and the point of entry to the project. The framework is particularly applicable where the integration of adaptation measures into broader sector specific policies, economic development, poverty reduction objectives, or other policy domains is desirable. (http://www.undp.org/gef/adaptation/climate_change/APF.htm; a few technical papers are included in the resource section) Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) to adaptation is a framework that helps in understanding the complexities of poverty and includes a set of principles to guide action to address and overcome poverty. It offers a way to improve understanding of the livelihoods of poor people. SLA is used to identify the main constraints and opportunities faced by poor people, as expressed by themselves. (http://www.ifad.org/sla/; see articles in the literature section for linkages to climate change adaptation) COMPARISON TABLE: Tool Audience Screening level Spatial scale Training time Application time Main data type Economic PRECIS (UK Met Office) all Input toos multiscale varying varying Quantitative No Vulnerability assessment (ILRI et al) donors policy national unknown 2-6 months Quant. not at present SERVIR (USAID,NASA) all various local, regional none <1 month Quant No SDSM (Environment Agency) gov’t, donors, other project multiscale half-day <1 month Quant No CAIT (WRI) all programme national none <1 month Quant No NAPA Platform (UNITAR) gov’t, donors, NGOs project, programme multiscale none NA NA No CIEAR (SEI) all various multiscale varying varying quant Yes in future CRiSTAL (IISD/IUCN/ SEI/Intercooperation) all project local, regional 1 hour <1 month Qualitative not at present ADAPT (World Bank) all project local, regional none <1 month Qualitative No Adaptation Wizard (UKCIP) all various multiscale none <1 month Qualitative not at present UNDP Country Database Country offices Project National 20 minutes <1 month Quant and Qual No UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 54 Climate Quick Scans (DGIS) donors project, programme multiscale none <1 month Qualitative No Preparedness for Climate Change (Red Cross/Crescent) NGOs programme, policy National none > 6 months Qualitative No Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Manual (USAID) donors policy, project local, regional - 2-6 months Quant and qual not at present ORCHID (IDS/DFID) donors, NGOs programme regional, national none 2-6 months Qualitative yes CCA/UNDAF Guidance (UNDP) Country offices programme national none > 6 months Qualitative No e) Climate proofing UNEP projects Impetus for portfolio screening to support mainstreaming of climate change adaptation has been reinforced through policy commitments and political declarations. There are specific adaptation funds to enable mainstreaming, and even though projects implemented with these funds are likely to provide important foundations and lessons, tackling future climaterelated risks to development requires a more comprehensive approach. Problems with and limitations of these sources (including the general expectation that specific adaptation funds are likely to fall magnitudes short of the estimated costs of adaptation) have motivated a range of donor agencies to conduct screenings of their programme and project portfolios. Climate proofing offers a systematic examination of UNEP’s programming with the aim of identifying how climate change concerns can be integrated with existing priorities. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into UNEP’s portfolio can potentially achieve two things. First, it can contribute to the climate proofing of existing projects; that is, it can modify existing projects to ensure that they are no longer at risk from climate change or no longer contribute to the vulnerability of its recipients. Second, and perhaps more importantly, mainstreaming can ensure that future projects and strategies are consciously aimed at reducing vulnerability by including priorities that are critical to successful adaptation, such as ensuring water rights to groups exposed to water scarcity during drought (Klein et al., 2007). f) Looking ahead The literature included in this section of the sourcebook ranges from descriptions of conceptual frameworks to examples of other agencies’ checklists for climate-proofing project portfolios. The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) Technical Papers included in the section suggest a way of moving forward on thinking about climate change and integrating it into UNEP programming. Several articles discuss the linkages between climate change adaptation and the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach, which historically has emphasized poverty reduction through enhanced understanding of the livelihoods of poor people. Finally, several existing checklists from other agencies’ climate-screening efforts have been included to serve as a baseline for the creation of UNEP’s own, ecosystems based adaptation checklist. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 55 Key literature 1. Downing, T. (2004) Vulnerability in NAPA assessments: Guidance, examples and team exercises For developing rapid, participatory vulnerability assessments In National Adaptation Programmes of Action (from vulnerabilitynet.org) 2. Gigli, S. and S. Agrawala (2007). Stocktaking of Progress on Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Co-operation Activities, OM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2007)1/FINAL, OECD, Paris. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/33/62/39216288.pdf a. Executive Summary b. Annex 4: OVERVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE PORTFOLIO-SCREENING EFFORTS TO DATE60 c. Annex 7: DANIDA CLIMATE CHANGE SCREENING NOTE 3. Klein, R.J.T., Eriksen, S.E.H., L.O. Næss, A. Hammill, T.M. Tanner, C. Robledo and K. O’Brien (2007), “Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance”, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper 102, Stockholm. Available from: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/twp102.pdf/ 4. Knutsson, P. and Ostwald, M. (2006) A Process-Oriented Sustainable Livelihoods Approach–A Tool For Increased Understanding of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5. IISD. (2003). Increasing Community Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters through Sustainable Livelihoods A Conceptual Framework for Climate Change Adaptation. Livelihoods and Climate Change (Available from http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2003/envsec_livelihoods_1.pdfUNDP/GEF. The CommunityBased Adaptation Programme Responding to Climate Change One Community at a Time (Available from http://sgp.undp.org/downloads/CBA_flyer.pdf) 6. UNDP. Adaptation Policy Framework. Technical Papers: a. Preface: b. Scoping and Designing an Adaptation Project *checklist c. Engaging Stakeholders in the Adaptation Process d. Formulating an Adaptation Strategy e. Continuing the Adaptation Process Comprehensive Bibliography 1. Agrawala, S. (2005), “Putting Climate Change in the Development Mainstream: Introduction and Framework”, in S. Agrawala (ed.), Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Linking Climate Change and Development, OECD, Paris. 2. ADB (2005), “Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation”, ADB, Manila. Key literature is available at the following website: http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 56 3. Burton, I. and M. van Aalst (2004), “Look Before You Leap: A Risk Management Approach for Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into World Bank Operations”, World Bank, Washington 4. DeFries, R. (2005) Chapter 2: Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystems and Human Well-being in Current State & Trends Assessment of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Available from: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.271.aspx.pdf 5. Downing, T. (2004) Vulnerability in NAPA assessments: Guidance, examples and team exercises For developing rapid, participatory vulnerability assessments In National Adaptation Programmes of Action (from vulnerabilitynet.org) 6. Elasha, B. et al. (2005) Sustainable livelihood approach for assessing community resilience to climate change: case studies from Sudan. AIACC Working Paper No.17 (Available from http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP_No017.p df) 7. Gigli, S. and S. Agrawala (2007), Stocktaking of Progress on Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Co-operation Activities, OM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2007)1/FINAL, OECD, Paris. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/33/62/39216288.pdf 8. IISD. (2003). Increasing Community Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters through Sustainable Livelihoods A Conceptual Framework for Climate Change Adaptation. Livelihoods and Climate Change (Available from http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2003/envsec_livelihoods_1.pdf) 9. Klein, R.J.T., Eriksen, S.E.H., L.O. Næss, A. Hammill, T.M. Tanner, C. Robledo and K. O’Brien (2007), “Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance”, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper 102, Stockholm. Available from: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/twp102.pdf/ 10. Knutsson, P. and Ostwald, M. (2006) A Process-Oriented Sustainable Livelihoods Approach–A Tool For Increased Understanding of Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11. Noble, I. (2005b), “A Screening and Design Tool for Adapting Projects to Climate Change”, presentation, World Bank, Washington, Available from: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDISMGMT/Resources/noble.pdf. 12. Rothman, D. and Robinson, J. (1996) GROWING PAINS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR CONSIDERING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS. Sustainable Development Research Institute, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada 13. Shaw, R., Colley, M., and Connell, R., (2007). Ch4: How to implement adaptation through design and development in Climate change adaptation by design: a guide for sustainable communities Climate change adaptation by design: A guide for sustainable communities. TCPA, London. Available from http://www.tcpa.org.uk/downloads/20070523_CCA_lowres.pdf UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 57 14. Tearfund and IDS (2006) Overcoming the barriers: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in developing countries 15. UNDP. Adaptation Policy Framework. Technical Papers: a. Preface: b. Scoping and Designing an Adaptation Project *checklist c. Engaging Stakeholders in the Adaptation Process d. Formulating an Adaptation Strategy e. Continuing the Adaptation Process 16. UNDP/GEF. The Community-Based Adaptation Programme Responding to Climate Change One Community at a Time (Available from http://sgp.undp.org/downloads/CBA_flyer.pdf) 17. World Bank guidance booklet to support mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change in agricultural / natural resources management sector projects (Available from http://go.worldbank.org/DN594WC0E0) 18. World Bank/GEF (2006) Managing Climate Risk: Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations 19. Complete Frameworks and Supporting Toolkits (from UNFCC) IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) Guidelines for the preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Making UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 58 Part 7: Climate Change Case studies - What case studies are particularly instructive for integrating adaptation concerns into UNEP project planning? Part 7 of this Sourcebook provides an overview of three case studies that may contain lessons applicable for UNEP programming. As the focus of UNEP’s project programming is on biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management, case studies were selected that show how other agencies are beginning to screen similar projects for climate risk. The example from Ethiopia exemplifies project-level adaptation; the case study from the Amazon Basin is an example of project formulation at a national/regional level; the case study on gender focuses on the role of women in India for the rehabilitation of disasteraffected communities. Overview of key issues and knowledge a) Introduction Adaptation to climate change occurs at a range of levels: i) project, ii) regulation and compliance, iii) short- and midterm policymaking and planning at sub national level, and iv) national strategic development planning (ADB). The case studies chosen demonstrate the importance of mainstreaming adaptation, including strengthening an enabling environment for adaptation to increase the likelihood of successful adaptation at project and community levels. b) ETHIOPIA: Greater Boma Park Initiative The agency involved in the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affair’s Directorate General for International Cooperation (DGIS). This initiative will create a crossborder nature conservation with biodiversity corridors connecting it to existing parks in Ethiopia, Sudan and Kenya. Drought has already negatively impacted Boma Park’s wildlife and undermined the food security of the populations living in and around the park. This fact underscores the importance of integrated climate concerns in the project design. People are also overly dependent on the area’s natural resources, which has lead to unsustainable exploitation of wildlife and other resources undermining traditional livelihoods and sustainable development. Ideally, this initiative would work at the intersection of ecosystem conservation, human rights protection, and livelihood enhancement but nearby plans for hydropower development threaten the availability of water resources to the park and local populations (in addition to climatic induced water stress). Since this project is in its UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 59 inception phase, it is critically important to integrate climate change risk management into project design. In determining an approach for integrated climate risks, the team had two main considerations: 1) the reliance of the poor on environmental services for their livelihoods, 2) environmental and economic assets as well as capabilities comprise peoples’ livelihoods and shape vulnerability and ability to reduce it. DGIS’ decision on a tool was guided by the tool’s ability to adequately address livelihood issues. DGIS screened for climate risks to the country, project, and external vulnerability risks affected by the project (potential to reduce community vulnerability to climate shocks) (see diagram above). DGIS initially classified projects into three categories of risk, high (red), medium (orange), and low (green). For red and orange projects, a second, more detailed screening was undertaken using CRISTAL (Community-based Risk Screening ToolAdaptation & Livelihoods). Plans for biodiversity corridors build adaptive capacity by allowing wildlife to respond to climate change by moving between parks in search of food and water. The project’s conservation goals will likely be more affected by the planned hydro-power installations than by climate change. While climate poses no direct risks to the project, some components could be affected i.e. the livelihood component. Droughts reduce food security and result in income loss. Water resources will also likely be affected leaving communities to cope with water shortages—increasing the risk of illness and child mortality. It is important that the livelihood component does not induce communities to settle in drought-prone areas, which would only increase their vulnerability. Upon initial screening, DGIS classified this project as CATEGORY GREEN (low risk) so the secondary CRISTAL screening was not needed. If however, the livelihood and human rights components become as prominent as the conservation component, a second risk assessment is in order: the susceptibility of the livelihood component to climate risks would likely make it a CATEGORY ORANGE project and require a CRISTAL screening. c) Amazon Basin: Adaptation to climate change The agency involved is UNEP/GEF. The project’s objective is to strengthen, in a coordinated and coherent manner, the institutional framework for planning and executing activities for the protection and sustainable management of the water resources of the Amazon River Basin. Sustainable management of the region presupposes protection and integrated management of transboundary water resources and adaptation to climatic changes. From the start, this project is taking climate changes, variability, and risk into consideration in project design. The Amazon River Basin occupies the entire central and eastern area of South America with seasonal rainfall variations resulting from movements in the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Given its expansive drainage system, the Amazon Basin is significantly affected by ENSO-type climatic variations (those causing a substantial decline in precipitation), considerably increasing the areas at risk from fire and defoliation. In addition to its characterization of high biodiversity, Amazon River Basin is also an important source of natural resources for human economic development supporting a population of roughly 10 million people (a high percentage of which identify as indigenous communities). It contains UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 60 some of the world's largest known reserves of bauxite and industries within the Basin are some of the largest suppliers of iron and steel to world markets. The project is proposed to be divided into three four-year phases, the third of which is intended for strengthening sustainable and integrated water resources management in the Basin, recognizing the likely impacts forecast to arise as a consequence of ongoing changes to the global circulation and climatic regimes. However, from its inception, it will make progress toward the integrated management of land and water resources, incorporating planning for adaptation to climatic variation and change, through more effective decisionmaking by the relevant national institutions. Activity 3 is specifically devoted to forecasting the hydrological impacts of climatic variation and adaptation to change. This Activity will elaborate the scope and Terms of Reference necessary to develop capacity within the Amazon River Basin to predict with more certainty (and ultimately respond to) the impacts and consequences of climatic variability and change on the land and water resources, and on the vulnerable people and ecosystems within the. The Activity will also initiate a process that is intended to establish close ties with the Centre for the Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrologic Variability proposed to be created during Phase II of the GEF la Plata River Basin project. Components to ensure integration of climate change information: 1. Execution of specialized consultancies to define the conceptual basis and Terms of Reference for the design and operation of the hydroclimatological forecasting system. 2. Conduct an international multidisciplinary workshop (including specialists in climate, hydrology, edaphology, land use, ecology, sociology, etc) to a. b. c. d. define the technical basis for the forecasting system to be developed identify priority geographic areas and at-risk communities and ecosystems define research capacity, gaps and needs determine strategic courses of action to be carried out jointly by the Basin countries. 3. Preparation of a technical proposal and terms of reference for the strengthening of academic and meteorological institutions in the region. 4. Provision of Joint technical support for the OTCA in identifying joint projects to facilitate the exchange of scientific information, knowledge, and experiences d) India: Enabling Women to Play a Lead Role in Disaster-Affected Marginal Communities The agency involved is the UNISDR. The Tsunami Relief and Rehabilitation Programme was established response to the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The thrust is on building women's capacities for effective preparedness and risk reduction through the communitybased disaster preparedness (CBDP) framework. The targeted population is predominantly the lower strata of the economic and social ladder of fishing and other marginal communities: a population with little bargaining power that includes men, women, youth and children of fishing communities, a scheduled caste, scheduled tribes8 and other marginal communities. Self-help is a key strategy, self-help groups enable and strengthen self-help principles through capacity enhancement, and linkages and collaboration with different agencies can boost project quality. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 61 Participation in the CBDP programs has enabled women and men to realistically assess risks and vulnerabilities with a gender perspective, and vulnerability aspects were built into the programs. The initiative faced major challenges from tradition, culture and resistance from men/husbands of the women; however, they were overcome - to a certain extent - through awareness, capacity enhancement for women and children, sensitizing men and encouraging equal participation of men and women, and encouraging women' leadership with a strong focus on concrete results. Replicability of the project is transferable to community-based disaster preparedness to climate risks (see Allen, 2006). e) Climate risk assessment, a standard Practice in UNEP project design? Within the context of a changing and uncertain climate, the assessment of climatic risks of investment decisions needs to become conventional activity in feasibility studies. Van Aalst and Bettencourt (2004) argue that it is in the context of an uncertain future that the challenge of adaptation lies; namely finding an acceptable level of risk and then taking measures before, the expected impacts occur. In contrast to current development and conservation planning experience, addressing climate risks from the outset is likely to result in investment decisions that increase diversification and reduce vulnerability, though at the cost of potential short-term benefits. The ultimate goal is for UNEP project planning and climatic risk assessment to be inextricably linked. A key point to remember is that adaptation to climate change is an ongoing and reiterative process that includes information development, awareness raising, planning, design, implementation and monitoring (as illustrated in figure 2 below). Reducing vulnerability requires having mechanisms in place and technologies, expertise and other resources available to complete each part of this process (Klein et al., 2005). f) Looking ahead Climate proofing means identifying risks to a project, or any other specified natural or human asset, as a consequence of both current and future climate variability and extremes. It involves ensuring that those risks are reduced to acceptable levels through long-lasting and environmentally sound, economically viable, and socially acceptable changes implemented at one or more of the following stages in the project cycle: planning, design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 62 The emerging significance of adaptation in response to climate change, variability, and risks—particularly for developing countries—has led UNEP to adopt an outward- and forwarding-looking approach such that UNEP’s work complements the work of other institutions. UNEP’s organizational-learning from 2006-2007 also revealed a need for increased focus on the interlinkages between the environmental pillar of sustainable development and with the economic and social pillars. The reference articles included in the following section capture the importance of interlinkages between all three pillars and in which climate change and variability were integrated into various levels of adaptation planning. Articles chosen highlight the importance of taking livelihoods, indigenous knowledge, community-based disaster preparedness, and gendered nature of climate risks into account in screening existing projects or planning for future interventions that climate change will influence. Key literature 1. ADB. Chapter 6- Case Study Two: Climate Proofing the Design of the Breakwater for the Newly Developed Western Basin, Avatiu Harbor, Rarotonga in Climate Proofing: A Riskbased Approach to 2. ADB. Federated States of Micronesia — Climate Risk Profile and Guidelines for Policy and Decision Makers and Other Key Players, in Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation 3. Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., 2007: Cross-chapter case study: Indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change . In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 843-868.Available from: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-xccc.pdf 4. van Aalst et al. (2007) Executive Summary. Poverty Reduction at Risk: managing the impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation activities. 5. van Aalst, M. and Bettencourt, S. (2004)Vulnerability and Adaptation in Pacific Island Countries in An Adaptation Mosaic: A sample of emerging World Bank work in climate change adaptation (p15) 6. Thomas, D. et al. (2007) Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa Climatic Change (83) 1573-1480 7. Dube, P. et al. (2008) Indigenous knowledge, institutions, and practices for coping with variable climate in the Limpop basin of Botswana in Climate Change and Adaptation. Leary et al. (eds) 71-89 8. UNISDR (2007) Enabling Women to Play a Lead Role in Disaster – Affected Marginal Communities in Gender Perspective: Working Together for Disaster Risk Reduction Good Practices and Lessons Learned. Available from: http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900SID/EMAE-76XQV6/$FILE/isdrgender%20good%20practices-2007.pdf?OpenElement Key literature is available at the following website: http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 63 9. Katrina M. Allen (2006) Community-based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation: local capacity-building in the Philippines Disasters 30 (1) , 81–101 doi:10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00308.x Comprehensive Bibliography 1. van Aalst et al. (2007) Executive Summary. Poverty Reduction at Risk: managing the impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation activities. 2. van Aalst, M. and Bettencourt, S. (2004)Vulnerability and Adaptation in Pacific Island Countries in An Adaptation Mosaic: A sample of emerging World Bank work in climate change adaptation (p15) 3. ADB. Federated States of Micronesia — Climate Risk Profile from Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation 4. Adejuwon, J. et al. (2008) Using seasonal weather forecasts for adapting food production to climate variability and climate change in Nigeria in Climate Change and Adaptation Leary et al. (eds) 163-180 5. Burton, I. and M. van Aalst (2004), “Look Before You Leap: A Risk Management Approach for Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into World Bank Operations”, World Bank, Washington 6. Chinvanno, S., et al. (2008) Strategies for managing climate risks in the lower Mekong river basin: A place-based approach in Climate Change and Adaptation. Leary et al. (eds) 228-246 7. DGIS Case studies in climate risk screening a. Dougherty, B. and Crick, F. (2007) Poverty Reduction at Risk in Ethiopia. b. Koudstall, R. and Ahmed, A.(2007) Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bangladesh: An Assessment of the impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation activities c. Iwanciw, J. and Suarez, P. (2007) Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bolivia: An Assessment of the impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation activities 8. FAO. (2006) Livelihood adaptation to climate variability and change in drought-prone areas of Bangladesh. Available from: http://www.fao.org/clim/docs/CDROM/docs/Natural%20resources%20and%20environ ment/a0820e.pdf. 9. Gagnon-Lebrun, F. and S. Agrawala (2006), Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in Developed Countries: An Analysis of Broad Trends, ENV/EPOC/GSP(2006)1/FINAL, OECD, Paris. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/49/18/37178873.pdf) 10. OCED (2003) Development and Climate Change in Fiji: Focus on Coastal Mangroves 11. OCED (2003) Development and Climate Change in Nepal: Focus on Water Resources and Hydropower . 12. Osman-Elasba, B. et al. (2008) Community development and coping with drought in rural Sudan in Climate Change and Adaptation. Leary et al. (eds) 90-108 UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 64 13. Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., 2007: Cross-chapter case study: Indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change . In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 843-868.Available from: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-xccc.pdf 14. Secretariat of the International Conference on Freshwater (2001) FLOODS AND DROUGHTS: COPING WIITH VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE (http://www.water2001.de/co_doc/Floods.pdf d. The Sahel drought e. Flooding in Bangladesh f. Odra / Oder flood of 1997 g. Southern Africa / Mozambique flood of 2000 h. Droughts in Northeast Brazil i. Flood protection in Japan (based on Kundzewicz & Takeuchi, 1999) j. Sustainable development context (after Kundzewicz, 1999) k. WADI: An example of integrated research in support of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management (CDRM) 15. Sperling, F. (ed.), 2003. Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation. Inter-agency report 16. UNFCCC Local coping strategies database (http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/) l. Community-based adaptation can greatly benefit from knowledge of local coping strategies; the facilitates the transfer of long-standing coping strategies and knowledge from communities which have adapted to specific hazards or climatic conditions, to communities which may just be starting to experience such conditions as a result of climate change. 17. UNISDR (2007) Gender Perspective: Working Together for Disaster Risk Reduction Good Practices and Lessons Learned. Available http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900SID/EMAE-76XQV6/$FILE/isdrgender%20good%20practices-2007.pdf?OpenElement UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook from: 65 Part 8. Other Resources Glossary The information provided below was compiled from a variety of published sources. For concepts not listed in the topics below, readers may wish to consult the glossary included in the Appendix I of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report which is available from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-app.pdf. Another good source is UNEP’s report entitled, Global Environment Outlook: Environment for development. This report is available from the following website: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/Glossary.pdf. Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and planned adaptation: Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed therefore avoiding higher costs than would otherwise be incurred and damages to the economy. Also referred to as proactive adaptation. Autonomous adaptation – Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Also referred to as spontaneous adaptation. Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state. (IPCC, 2007) Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. (Source: IPCC) Adaptive capacity in ecological systems is related to genetic diversity, biological diversity, and the heterogeneity of landscape mosaics (Carpenter et al. 2001a, Peterson et al. 1998, Bengtsson et al. 2002). In social systems, the existence of institutions and networks that learn and store knowledge and experience, create flexibility in problem solving and balance power among interest groups play an important role in adaptive capacity (Scheffer et al. 2000, Berkes et al. 2002). [from www.resalliance.org/565.php] Adaptive Management: Adaptive management seeks to aggressively use management intervention as a tool to strategically probe the functioning of an ecosystem. Interventions are designed to test key hypotheses about the functioning of the ecosystem. This approach is very different from a typical management approach of 'informed trial-and-error' which uses the best available knowledge to generate a risk-averse, 'best guess' management strategy, which is then changed as new information modifies the 'best guess'. Adaptive UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 66 management identifies uncertainties, and then establishes methodologies to test hypotheses concerning those uncertainties. It uses management as a tool not only to change the system, but as a tool to learn about the system. It is concerned with the need to learn and the cost of ignorance, while traditional management is focused on the need to preserve and the cost of knowledge. (www.resalliance.org/565.php) Biodiversity: The total diversity of all organisms and ecosystems at various spatial scales (from genes to entire biomes). Climate change: Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2001). Note, however, that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between “climate change” attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability” attributable to natural causes. Climate hazards: Climatic hazards are threats to a system, comprised of perturbations and stress (and stressors), and the consequences they produce. A perturbation could be a major spike in pressure (e.g., a tidal wave or hurricane) beyond the normal range of variability in which the system operates. Perturbations commonly originate beyond the system or location in question. Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats and can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Each hazard is characterized by its location, intensity, frequency and probability. Climate Model: commonly thought of as a numerical or mathematical representation of the physical, chemical and biological properties (atmosphere, ocean, ice and land surface) of a climatic system, which incorporates scenarios (coherent internally consistent and plausible descriptions of a possible forthcoming states of the world; Carter et al, 1994) allowing for the generation of future predictions (Santer et al., 1990). Climate variability: Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) (IPCC, 2001). Climate threshold: The point at which external forcing of the climate system, such as the increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, triggers a significant climatic or environmental event which is considered unalterable, or recoverable only on very long timescales, such as widespread bleaching of corals or a collapse of oceanic circulation systems (IPCC 4AR). Coping range: The variation in climatic stimuli that a system can absorb without producing significant impacts (IPCC, 2001). (Coping is used for short-term (or reactive) adjustments while adapting for long term (or proactive) ones.) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 67 Climate change scenarios: coherent and internally-consistent descriptions of future climate given certain assumptions about the growth of the emissions of greenhouse gases and about other factors that may influence climate in the future. The uncertainties associated with the modelling of future climate scenarios have been divided by the Hadley Centre into three broad categories: (i) emissions uncertainty; (ii) natural climatic variability; and (iii) modelling uncertainty (UKCIP). Climate Impact Assessment: the practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and beneficial consequences of climate change on natural and human systems (Source: IPCC WG II). Downscaling: A method that derives local- to regional-scale (10 to 100 km) information from larger-scale models or data analyses. (IPCC 4AR) El Niño - disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe. (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/ , see ENSO effect) ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) effect: The term ``El Niño'' originally applied to an annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of Peru and Ecuador about Christmas-time (hence Niño, Spanish for ``the boy Christ-child'') and only subsequently became associated with the unusually large warmings that occur every few years and change the local and regional ecology. The coastal warming, however, is often associated with a much more extensive anomalous ocean warming to the International dateline and it is this Pacific basinwide phenomenon that forms the link with the anomalous global climate patterns. The atmospheric component tied to ``El Niño'' is termed the ``Southern Oscillation''. Scientists often call the phenomenon where the atmosphere and ocean collaborate together ENSO, short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. El Niño then corresponds to the warm phase of ENSO. The opposite ``La Niña'' (``the girl'' in Spanish) phase consists of a basinwide cooling of the tropical Pacific and thus the cold phase of ENSO. However, for the public, the term for the whole phenomenon is ``El Niño". (National Center for Atmospheric Research, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/clivar97/en.dfn.html) General circulation mode (GCMs): These models analyze climate events by dividing the surface of the Earth into a grid composed of three-dimensional cells that measure a few degrees of latitude and longitude per side but the basic unit is roughly the size of a small country such as Belgium, making regional projections difficult. These models are more useful on a global scale. Global climate models are the only tools currently available to us for simulating the complex set of processes that determine climate at global and regional levels. It is important to remember that they represent our current understanding of how the climate system works. (UKCIP) HadCM2: United Kingdom Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research climate model (HadCM2) simulates the global climate from 1860 to 1990 and then to estimate the global climate change for the period 1990 to 2099. The Hadley climate change experiment includes the effects of both atmospheric greenhouse gases (which increase global surface temperatures) and sulfate aerosols (which reduce temperatures in regions with high aerosol loading). In this experiment, the carbon dioxide (CO2) content of the atmosphere is increased by 1 percent per year over the 1990 values. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 68 Impacts of climate change: The effects of climate change on natural and human systems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation. Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that would occur after adaptation. See also aggregate impacts, market impacts, and non-market impacts. Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ): area of low pressure that forms where the Northeast Trade Winds meet the Southeast Trade Winds near the earth's equator. As these winds converge, moist air is forced upward producing high cloudiness, frequent thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall yielding wet and dry seasons. The movement of the ITCZ is also important for bringing rain to southern Africa and the Sahel region of western Africa. These areas, which have only one rainfall season, are particularly vulnerable to the changes that can occur in the movement of the ITCZ. In years when the ITCZ does not migrate as far south as usual, droughts can occur. (read more on relationship between climate and ITCZ at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7018/full/432684a.html) Integrated water resources management (IWRM): The prevailing concept for water management which, however, has not been defined unambiguously. IWRM is based on four principles that were formulated by the International Conference onWater and the Environment in Dublin, 1992: (1) fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment; (2) water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy-makers at all levels; (3) women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water; (4) water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognised as an economic good. (IPCC 4AR) Maladaptation: actions taken which tend to increase vulnerability to climate change, contrary to original intent. Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2007) No-regrets adaptation measures: fail-safe adaptation options whose benefits, such as reduced energy costs and reduced emissions of local/regional pollutants equal or exceed their cost to society, excluding the benefits of climate change mitigation. They are sometimes knows as "measures worth doing anyway". For example an infrastructure noregret option would increase the durability and longevity of a building to climate variability over time. (IPCC SAR). http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/2nd-assessmentsynthesis.pdf No regrets policy: A policy that would generate net social and/or economic benefits irrespective of whether or not anthropogenic climate change occurs. (IPCC 4AR) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): The NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) consists of opposing variations of barometric pressure near Iceland and near the Azores. It is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region. (IPCC 4AR) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 69 Radiative forcing: The IPCC defines this term as an externally imposed perturbation in the radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate system. Such a perturbation can be brought about by secular changes in the concentrations of radiatively active species (e.g., CO2, aerosols), changes in the solar irradiance incident upon the planet. Resilience: the ability to absorb disturbances, to be changed and then to re-organise and still have the same identity (retain the same basic structure and ways of functioning). It includes the ability to learn from the disturbance. A resilient system is forgiving of external shocks. As resilience declines the magnitude of a shock from which it cannot recover gets smaller and smaller. Resilience shifts attention from purely growth and efficiency to needed recovery and flexibility. Growth and efficiency alone can often lead ecological systems, businesses and societies into fragile rigidities, exposing them to turbulent transformation. Learning, recovery and flexibility open eyes to novelty and new worlds of opportunity. (Resilience Alliance, http://www.resalliance.org/564.php) Risk: The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions (UNISDR terminology). Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation: Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability. Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to the physical aspects of vulnerability (UNISDR). Sea-level rise: An increase in the mean level of the ocean. Eustatic sea-level rise is a change in global average sea level brought about by an increase in the volume of the world ocean. Relative sea-level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land level subsidence. In areas subject to rapid land-level uplift, relative sea level can fall. (IPCC 4AR) Sensitivity: Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). (IPCC 4AR) SRES: The storylines and associated population, GDP and emissions scenarios associated with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakićenović et al., 2000), and the resulting climate change and sea-level rise scenarios. Four families of socio-economic scenario (A1, A2, B1 and B2) represent different world futures in two distinct dimensions: a focus on economic versus environmental concerns, and global versus regional development patterns (IPCC 4AR). System: A population or ecosystem; or a grouping of natural resources, species, infrastructure, or other assets. (pewclimate.org) Thermal expansion: In connection with sea-level rise, this refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results from warming water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sea level. (IPCC 4AR) UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 70 Thermohaline circulation (THC): Large-scale, density-driven circulation in the ocean, caused by differences in temperature and salinity. In the NorthAtlantic, the thermohaline circulation consists of warm surface water flowing northward and cold deepwater flowing southward, resulting in a net poleward transport of heat. The surface water sinks in highly restricted regions located in high latitudes. Also called meridional overturning circulation (MOC). (IPCC 4AR) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992, in New York, and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I aim to return greenhouse gas emissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Convention entered in force in March 1994 (IPCC 4AR). Vulnerability: Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 4AR). Win-Win Adaptation Options: include green roofs (that decrease the energy consumption, storm water runoff, air pollution and could help reduce the urban heat Options island), water conservation programs, (which aid in decreasing seasonal water shortages and the effects of drought) and the implementation of renewable energy (that are beneficial for the environment and can provide energy during grid power outages and storms). UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 71 Organizations working on adaptation Organization Description Contact Info/Website Albaeco Albaeco spreads easy-to-grasp information on how human societies depend on functioning ecosystems, and how societies influence the capacity of the ecosystems to sustain human well-being. The information is available for practical use by policymakers, businesses, schools, media and the general public. http://albaeco.com/englis h/ Climate Adaptation Science and Policy Initiative (CASPI) research network at the University of Melbourne http://www.caspi.unimelb .edu.au/index.php Drylands Programme of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) IIED is an independent, non-profit organization promoting sustainable patterns of world development through collaborative research, policy studies, networking and knowledge dissemination. www.iied.org Stockholm Environment Institute An international environmental NGO with offices in seven countries. SEI is in process of setting up a Collaborating Centre for Climate Adaptation with UNEP. http://www.sei.se Stockholm Resilience Center new international centre that advances transdisciplinary research for governance of socialecological systems with a special emphasis on resilience - the ability to deal with change and continue to develop. http://www.stockholmresi lience.org/ UK Climate Impacts Program helps organizations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impact. Have numerous publications for download http://www.ukcip.org.uk/r esources/publications/ UN ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ) http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climatechange/rd-cch-infolink7-06-eng.htm - CC+DR Infolink: Newsletter produced by UN ISDR on climate change and disaster risk reduction http://www.unisdr.org/ Red Cross/ Red Crescent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness The Climate Centre supports National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies to eventually reduce the loss of life and the damage done to the livelihoods of people affected by the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. http://www.climatecentre .org/index.php?page=1&lg = The following are listed on WeADAPT as Centers for Climate Adaptation AWhere Inc. A spatial information and visualisation company that provides user-friendly software to use in exercises such as vulnerability mapping. AWhere provide the AWhere Spatial Information System to the weADAPT users (at a discount for developing countries), led development of the Climate Change Explorer tool, and provide a global server of climate data (through AWIS). http://www.awhere.com BCAS- BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES An independent, research, implementation and policy institute for sustainable development; involved and lead climate change related country studies in http://www.bcas.net/Divis ions/Division_Index.html UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook 72 association other national level organizations CIFOR- Center for International Forestry Research livelihoods and resource management http://www.cifor.cgiar.org / ENDA Tiers-Monde International organisation with diplomatic status based in Dakar, Senegal, with a network of decentralised nodes worldwide. ENDA lead work on training, risk communication, and mainstreaming, among many other areas. http://www.enda.sn FAO The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is world reknowned for their work on agricultural development www.fao.org IIED- International Institute for Environment and Development Community Based Adaptation Exchange (CBA-X) is a new shared online resource designed to bring together and grow the CBA community. CBA-X provides a site of exchange for up-to-date and relevant information about community-based adaptation. www.cbaexchange.org http://www.iied.org/CC/in dex.html OSS- The Sahara and Sahel Observatory An independent international organisation based in Tunis, Tunisia, acting as a north-south-south partnership platform. Its ACCCA project (Adaptation to climate change and variability) supported rural communities in assessing vulnerability. http://www.ossonline.org/index.php?opti on=com_content&task=vi ew&id=254&Itemid=409 START The global change System for Analysis, Research and Training enables research on global environmental change through a networ k of collaborating centres and partners in Africa, Asia and Oceania. START centres have a specific role in climate and impact science, technical support and training. www.start.org UNITAR The UN Institute for Training and Research supports training in international affairs management and capacity building in economic and social development, including climate change. UNITAR coordinates several projects that the Centres are involved in, notably ACCCA, C3D and NAPA support workshops. www.unitar.org University of Cape Town (UCT) University working on all aspects of climate change. UCT leads development of climate scenarios and the use of climate data in adaptation planning. WWF WWF helps communities and conservation areas adapt to a changing climate. Actions such as restoring damaged forests, wetlands, and other habitats increase their resilience, help protect nature, and generate income for local people. UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook www.csag.uct.ac.za www.erc.uct.ac.za http://www.panda.org/ab out_wwf/what_we_do/cli mate_change/solutions/b uilding_resilience/index.cf m 73 Useful websites Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) http://www.aiaccproject.org/ - global initiative developed in collaboration with the UNEP/WMO Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to advance scientific understanding of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options in developing countries. Climate Adaptation: Understanding how to respond sustainably to environmental change http://www.climate-adaptation.info/ (Lisa Schipper’s (of IISD) website on adaptation in the context of development; follows the theoretical discussion about adaptation, vulnerability, resilience, risk, and disasters Climate Change and Agriculture Library http://www.ceepa.co.za/climate_change/library.html CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY (CLIVAR), a WCRP project http://www.clivar.org/ Community Resilience to Extreme Weather' (CREW) wiki http://www.extreme-weather-impacts.net Ecology and Society http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/ (jJournal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability) ELDIS Resource Guides and Dossiers http://www.linkingclimateadaptation.org/ - database of development, policy, practice and research papers, including a searchable dataset of organizations working on climate adaptation http://www.cba-exchange.org/- also housed at ELDIS, Community based adaptation exchange Early Warning and Monitoring System http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/ Gender and Disaster Network http://www.gdnonline.org/ ; includes a sourcebook on the issue Health Library for Disasters http://www.helid.desastres.net/ Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) http://www.iwrm.org/ - basic knowledge and updates in Integrated Water and Resources Management (IWRM) principles/practices Organizations related to drought and drought research http://www.icrisat.org/vasat/droughtweb/organization.htm Resilience Alliance http://www.resalliance.org/1.php ; plus their blog http://rs.resalliance.org UNDP Adaptation Learning Mechanism http://www.adaptationlearning.net - three-year ALM project launched in late 2007 that seeks to develop tools and resources to support: 1. Adaptation practices 2. Integration of climate change risks and adaptation into policy, planning and operations 3. Capacity building UNFCCC information portal on adaptation UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook http://unfccc.int/adaptation/items/4159.php and Including a local coping strategies database: http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/ 74 UNFCCC Nairobi work programme http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation_planning/ - Database of submissions on adaptation planning and practices under the Nairobi work programme Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group http://www.climatevarg.org/ Vulnerability Net http://www.vulnerabilitynet.org WeAdapt http://weadapt.org/ (SEI wiki focusing on adaptation collaboration) World Bank PovertyNet http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTPOVERT Y/0,,menuPK:336998~pagePK:149018~piPK:149093~theSitePK:336 992,00.html World Climate Research Program of the WMO http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/wcrp/ UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook (source of bilateral and multi-lateral agency knowledge exchange) 75