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UNEP Sourcebook
Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change into
UNEP Programming
Nairobi, Kenya
8-9 April 2008
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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Table of Contents
Page
About this Sourcebook .................................................................................................... vi
Developer’s note ............................................................................................................ vii
Introduction .................................................................................................................. viii
List of Acronyms .............................................................................................................. ix
Part 1: UNEP and Climate Change - What are UNEP’s strategic objectives? ...................... 11
THIS PART OF THE SOURCEBOOK WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE UNEP ADAPTATION ACTION
PLAN IS FINALIZED................................................................................................................ 11
Part 2: Climate Change Science - What are climate variability and climate change? ......... 12
Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 12
a) Defining climate variability and change.................................................................... 12
b) Knowledge Gaps ....................................................................................................... 16
c)
Climate Change and Scenarios.................................................................................. 16
d) Use of scenarios for adaptation planning ................................................................. 18
e) Considering climate vulnerability and climate change in UNEP projects ................. 19
Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 19
Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 20
Part 3: Climate Change Impacts - What are the major impacts on physical and social
systems from climate variability and change? ................................................................. 22
Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 22
a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 22
b) Vulnerability to climate change ................................................................................ 23
c)
Vulnerability assessments and the use of indicators ............................................... 24
d) Including climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments in UNEP projects26
e) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 26
Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 27
Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 28
a) Vulnerability and vulnerability assessments ............................................................ 28
b) Social and gendered vulnerability ............................................................................ 28
c)
Indicators .................................................................................................................. 29
d) Impacts and Vulnerability - Agriculture/food security ............................................. 30
e) Adaptation - Agriculture/food security .................................................................... 30
f)
Impacts and Vulnerability - Water resources and quality ........................................ 31
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g) Adaptation - Water resources and quality ............................................................... 31
h) Impacts and vulnerability - Coastal zone development ........................................... 32
i)
Adaptation - Coastal zone development .................................................................. 32
j)
Impacts and vulnerability - Ecosystems and Natural resources management ........ 32
k) Adaptation - Ecosystems and Natural resources management ............................... 33
l)
Impacts and Vulnerability – Public Health ................................................................ 33
m) Adaptation – Public Health ....................................................................................... 34
n) Impacts and Vulnerability - Disaster risk management ............................................ 34
o) Adaptation - Disaster risk management ................................................................... 35
p) Urban vulnerability: Settlements, infrastructure and planning ............................... 35
Part 4: Climate Change Adaptation - What does it mean to adapt, and what are the key
premises regarding the need to build adaptive capacity in UNEP projects? ...................... 36
Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 36
a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 36
b) What does the literature say about adaptation and adaptive capacity? ................. 37
c)
Adaptive Capacity ..................................................................................................... 38
d) Criteria for selecting adaptation strategies .............................................................. 39
e) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 40
Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 41
Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 41
Part 5:
Climate Change Risks - What are the major types of climate risks faced in
UNEP’s portfolio? ........................................................................................................... 43
Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 43
a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 43
b) Main climate risks for consideration (from Schneider et al., 2007-unless otherwise
noted)............................................................................................................................... 43
c)
Managing risks to UNEP projects for task managers ................................................ 44
d) Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 46
Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 47
Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 47
Part 6: Climate Change Tools - What tools are currently available for screening projects
regarding the integration of climate risks into project design? ........................................ 49
Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 49
a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 49
b) Tools for Information generation, databases and platforms ................................... 49
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c)
Computer-based decision tools ................................................................................ 51
d) Adaptation planning and risk management processes ............................................ 52
e) Climate proofing UNEP projects ............................................................................... 55
f)
Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 55
Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 56
Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 56
Part 7:
Climate Change Case studies - What case studies are particularly instructive
for integrating adaptation concerns into UNEP project planning? .................................... 59
Overview of key issues and knowledge ................................................................................ 59
a) Introduction .............................................................................................................. 59
b) ETHIOPIA: Greater Boma Park Initiative ................................................................... 59
c)
Amazon Basin: Adaptation to climate change .......................................................... 60
d) India: Enabling Women to Play a Lead Role in Disaster-Affected Marginal
Communities .................................................................................................................... 61
e) Climate risk assessment, a standard Practice in UNEP project design? ................... 62
f)
Looking ahead ........................................................................................................... 62
Key literature ........................................................................................................................ 63
Comprehensive Bibliography ............................................................................................... 64
Part 8. Other Resources .................................................................................................. 66
Glossary ................................................................................................................................ 66
Organizations working on adaptation ................................................................................. 72
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About this Sourcebook
This Sourcebook on tools, methods, and issues related to the integration of adaptation to
climate change into UNEP Programming was researched and written for the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) by the Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center.
UNEP’s motivation in the compilation of this collection of expert sources is to give its Task
Managers and workshop participants a place to begin as they consider climate-sensitive
approaches to project and programme formulation. The Sourcebook has been carefully
designed with UNEP’s unique priorities and emphases in view, and reflects the insights
generated from a rigorous internal review process.
A range of topics are addressed including scientific literature regarding the phenomenon of
climate change, vulnerability dimensions of natural and social systems, adaptation planning
frameworks, climate-proofing methods and tools, and a range of case study information.
Each topic is backed up by key reference literature available on the UNEP website
(http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actviti
es.asp), plus a broad bibliography for future reference.
Taken together, the information in this Sourcebook can be used in the effort to better
integrate risks associated with climate variability and climate change into future UNEP
projects.
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Developer’s note
This Sourcebook addresses the issue of how to assist UNEP Task Managers to integrate
climate change adaptation concerns into project and programme portfolios. It has been
designed to closely align with UNEP’s recent Climate Change Adaptation Initiative, as well as
outputs from the brainstorming meeting held in February 2008 at the UN Complex in Gigiri,
Nairobi.
UNEP’s internal review process led to eventual convergence on the specific range of topics
the Sourcebook should address, the format for synthesizing and presenting critical
literature, and the modalities associated with the companion workshop on methods and
tools to “climate-proof” UNEP projects. If you’d like us to add a source, or otherwise wish to
comment on the Sourcebook, please email [email protected]. Given the plan to improve this
Sourcebook over time, your feedback is vital.
Bill Dougherty
Amanda Fencl
Stockholm Environment Institute – US Center
An Independent Research Affiliate of Tufts University
11 Curtis Avenue
Somerville, MA
USA
Tel: +1-617-627-3786
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Introduction
The last few decades have witnessed extensive research on potential and observed impacts
of climate change and variability. Climate variability is a relatively near-term phenomenon
characterized by intensification in the departure from baseline climatic trends in
temperature and precipitation extremes. Climate change, in contrast, is long-term changes
that may alter agricultural productivity, land and marine ecosystems, and the resources that
these ecosystems supply.
The negative impacts of climate change are likely to be most serious in the tropics and
subtropics, where the majority of developing countries are located and where the capacity
to adapt to changes is most limited; it is widely accepted that developing countries are
largely maladapted to future climate risks. The adverse impacts of climate change will fall
disproportionately on the most vulnerable in the least developed and developing countries.
The combined challenges of climate change, environmental degradation, and persistent
impoverishment render developing societies extremely vulnerable to climate risks and
undermine their ability to cope and adapt to change. The Niche of UNEP in climate change
adaptation has been defined as meeting the twin needs of vulnerable countries for
environment protection and economic development and assisting them in integrating
adaptation into their multi-faceted planning and deliberative processes. Three key pillars
were identified to support UNEP’s Niche, 1) building key adaptive capacity of the developing
world; 2) increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk of climate-related disasters
and conflicts; and 3) mobilizing and managing knowledge for adaptation policy and
planning. This sourcebook provides project managers with the background knowledge,
resources, and tools to begin developing these pillars and ultimately integrating climaterisks and adaptation into UNEP projects through the following parts:
Part 1. UNEP Climate Change strategic objectives and
niche in climate change adaptation
Understanding Climate
Science, Assessing
Vulnerability to Impacts
Part 2.
Science
What is
climate
variability
and
change?
Part 3. Impacts
What are the
major impacts
from climate
variability and
change?
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
Adaptation in
response to climate
risks and impacts
Screening for risk and
learning from case
studies
Part 4.
Adaptation
Part 5.
Risks
Part 6.
Tools
Part 7. Case
Studies
What does it
mean to adapt,
and build
adaptive
capacity in
UNEP projects?
What are
the major
types of
climate
risks facing
UNEP’s
portfolio?
What tools
are
available for
screening
projects?
What case
studies
instructive for
integrating
adaptation
concerns into
project
planning?
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List of Acronyms
ADAPT
ADB
AIACC
APF
CBDP
CCAIRR
CCIAV
CIEAR
CRiSTAL
DGIS
ENSO
GCM
GDP
GEF
GEO-4
GHG
ITCZ
IPCC SAR
IPCC 4AR
IPCC
MA
MCA
MTS
NAPA
OFDA/CRED
ORCHID
PRECIS
SDSM
SES
SLA
SRES
TAR
UKCIP
UNDP
UNEP
UNEP/DELC
Assessment and Design for Adaptation to Climate Change: a Prototype
Tool
Asian Development Bank
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change
Adaptation Policy Framework
community-based disaster preparedness
Climate Change Adaptation through Integrated Risk Reduction
climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (assessments)
Climate envelopes/adaptation risk screening platform
Community-based Risk Screening Tool- Adaptation & Livelihoods
(Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affair’s) Directorate General for
International Cooperation
El niño-Southern Oscillation (effect)
general circulation models
gross domestic product
Global environment facility
Global Environment Outlook 4
green house gas (emissions)
inter-tropical convergence zone
IPCC Second Assessment Report
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Multi-criteria assessment
(UNEP’s) Medium Term Strategy 2010-2013
National Adaptation Programme of Action
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters
Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies
Statistical Down-Scaling Model
socio-ecological system
Sustainable Livelihoods Approach
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(IPCC) Third Assessment Report
United Kingdom’s Climate Impacts Programme
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Environment Programme
UNEP Division of Environmental Law and Conventions
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UNEP/DEWA
UNFCCC
UNISDR
USAID
WGI
WHO
UNEP Division of Early Warning and Assessment
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
US Agency for International Development
Working Group I of the IPCC
World Health Organization
WMO
World Meteorological Organization
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Part 1: UNEP and Climate Change - What are UNEP’s strategic
objectives?
THIS PART OF THE SOURCEBOOK WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE UNEP ADAPTATION ACTION
PLAN IS FINALIZED.
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Part 2: Climate Change Science - What are climate variability and
climate change?
Part 2 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on the science of climate
change. Climate-proofing ongoing and future projects and policies requires a strong
understanding of climate science. This Part reviews the science of climate change
summarized in the most recent IPCC Fourth Assessment report (Solomon et al., 2007). It also
discusses, based on available literature, the distinction between climate change and
variability in both normative and scientific terms. The section then provides a brief overview
of the issues of data and information needs for adaptation planning, suggesting sources of
information as well as where gaps remain drawing from Smit et al. (2000). The section
describes climate and socio-economic scenarios and their usefulness in adaptation planning,
including the ongoing work to refine scenarios pulling primarily from Dessai et al. (2005).
Overview of key issues and knowledge
a) Defining climate variability and change
A fundamental issue when thinking through potential adaptation options is to appreciate
that weather is distinct from climate. Weather consists of the short-term (minutes to about
15 days) variations of the atmosphere. Climate, on the other hand, is defined as weather
averaged over long periods and consists of patterns such as the frequency and intensity of
storms, cold outbreaks, and heat waves. The distinction between weather and climate is
insufficient to capture the array of climate stimuli and temporal scales pertinent for the
analysis of impacts and adaptations (Smit et al., 2000).
An area’s climate is influenced by both external and internal factors. External factors, or
forcings, include imbalances between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared
radiation and long-period changes in the Earth's orbital elements (eccentricity, obliquity of
the ecliptic, precession of equinoxes). Internal factors include interactions among
components of the climate system and natural internal processes (thermohaline circulation,
El Niño southern oscillation). All of these factors influence both climate variability and
climate change.
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as
standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and
spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural
internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural
or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) (IPCC, 2001).
Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation either in the mean state of the
climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)
(IPCC, 2001). Additionally, any changes in mean climatic conditions (long-term global or
regionally) are experienced through changes in the nature and frequency of particular yearly
conditions (Smit et al., 2000).
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To better grasp the distinction between
climate change and climate variability we
turn to the figure at right. In figure a, a
shift in a mean climate attribute (e.g.,
mean temperatures become 1-2 degrees
warmer or annual rainfall is reduced by
3%) necessarily shifts the whole
distribution curve even if there is no
change in variability (no change in shape
or variance of distribution curve). On the
other hand, if there are changes in
variance of the distribution of a climatic
attribute such as a longer rainy season or
increased duration of droughts (figure 1b)
in addition to shift in the mean, then the
frequency of “extreme” events can be
increased (or reduced depending on
location).
1a. Climate Change with Unchanged Variability
1b. Climate Change with Changed Variability
The
United
Nations
Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
defines climate change as: “a change of
climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which
is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. The
UNFCCC makes a distinction between “climate change” attributable to human activities
altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability” attributable to natural
causes.
Variability and change result in different impacts and while society and ecosystems are used
to coping with variability, they may not be able to adapt quickly enough to climate change.
Interest in adaptation to climate change extends to both changes in mean conditions as well
as climate variability. There is particular ongoing interest in adaptation to climate variability
(which includes extremes) in addition to preparing and building resilience for future climate
change. This is due, in part, to the fact that even with no change in climate, resilience to
climate variability is still critical to successful environment protection and economic
development.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently completed its fourth
assessment report (4AR) about the influence of human activity on the climate system (IPCC,
2007). The report is a comprehensive and updated scientific assessment of past, present
and future climate change. It provides the most detailed assessment of changes observed
throughout the climate system than ever before using the latest measurements covering
the atmosphere, land surface, oceans, and snow, ice and frozen ground. Moreover, it
provides the first probabilistic assessment of climate model simulations and projections
using detailed atmosphere-ocean coupled models from 18 modeling centers around the
world.
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The IPCC Sequence of Key Findings1
1. IPCC (1990) Broad overview of climate change science, discussion of uncertainties
and evidence for warming.
2. IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on
global climate.”
3. IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be
attributable to human activities.”
4. IPCC (2007)* “Warming is unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past 50 years
is very likely (90%) due to increases in greenhouse gases.”
*Compared to its previous assessment published in 2001 (IPCC, 2001), it is important to
note that the IPCC 4AR is stronger in its conclusions regarding the effects of human
influence on the climate system.
Treatment of uncertainty in climate science, and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (4AR)
IPCC 4AR contributions from Working Group I: The Scientific Basis (McCarthy et al., 2007)
acknowledges the improved scientific evidence and which the assessment drew, for the first
time, between levels of confidence in scientific understanding and the likelihoods of specific
results. Improvements in climatological models and analysis techniques have led to
increased confidence in the understanding of the influence of external forcing on climate
since the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR).
There are two primary types of uncertainty referenced in the IPCC reports:
1. Value uncertainty (incomplete determination of particular values)
2. Structural uncertainty (incomplete understanding of processes that control the
results or values)
The boxes below summarize the way in which the IPCC describes uncertainty in the context
of its assessments. Value uncertainties are estimated using statistical techniques and
expressed probabilistically (see likelihood terminology) while structural uncertainties are
typically described though the authors’ collective judgment of their confidence in the
correctness of the result (see confidence terminology).
Image from
IPCC WGI,
Technical
What
is new
in the
IPCCSummary
4AR?(2007)
Since the 2001 TAR, recent studies and a growing body of evidence have provided for a
broader and more confident assessment of the relationship between observed warming and
other trends and impacts on social and ecological systems. Data improvements, broader
1
from a presentation by Susan Solomon, co-chair WG I at the Norwegian Academy of Sciences; available from
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
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geographical coverage, better understanding of uncertainties, and wider variety of
measurements enhance the 4AR in relation to the TAR. For example, WGI: The Scientific
Basis draws on new and independent evidence from many types of paleo-climatic data, e.g.
changes in glaciers indicating a global average temperature change in the 20th century
consistent with the thermometers, as well as supporting evidence from corals, tree rings,
boreholes, and ice cores. Scientists also have access to better and longer satellite data
about the sun and solar irradiance.
Climatic changes in the 20th century are distinct from natural variability. Many observed
changes in surface and free atmospheric temperature, ocean temperature and sea ice
extent, and some large-scale changes in the atmospheric circulation over the 20th century
are distinct from internal variability and consistent with the expected response to
anthropogenic forcing (>95% likelihood). Qualitative consistency is also apparent in some
other observations, including snow cover, glacier retreat and heavy precipitation.
The following table summarizes climate phenomenon and likelihood based on new
evidence:
Table 1. Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for
which there is an observed late-20th century trend. {Tables 3.7, 3.8, 9.4; Sections 3.8, 5.5, 9.7, 11.2–11.9} (Solomon et al.,
2007) 2
Phenomenona and direction
of trend
Warmer and fewer cold days
and nights over most land
areas
Warmer and more frequent
hot days and nights over
most land areas
Warm spells/heat waves.
Frequency increases over
most land areas
Heavy precipitation events.
Frequency (or proportion of
total rainfall from heavy falls)
increases over most areas
Area affected by droughts
increases
Intense tropical cyclone
activity increases
Increased incidence of
extreme high sea level
Likelihood that trend
occurred in late 20th
century (typically post
1960)
Likelihood of a human
contribution
to
observed trend
Likelihood of future trends
based on projections for21st
century using SRES scenarios
Very likelyc
Likelyd
Virtually certaind
Very likelye
Likely (nights)d
Virtually certaind
Likely
More likely than notf
Very likely
Likely
More likely than notf
Very likely
Likely in many regions
since 1970s
More likely than not
Likely
Likely in many regions
since 1970s
More likely than notf
Likely
Likely
More likely than not f ,h
Likelyi
The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has
improved since the third assessment report (TAR), leading to a very high confidence that the
global average net effect of human activities has been one of warming. Anthropogenic
2
For complete table notes see page 8, Summary for Policy Makers: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; f
[…] Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather than formal attribution studies; g Extreme high sea
level depends on average sea level and on regional weather systems. […].; h Changes in observed extreme high sea level
closely follow the changes in average sea level. It is very likely that anthropogenic activity contributed to a rise in average
sea level; i In all scenarios, the projected global average sea level at 2100 is higher than in the reference period. The effect of
changes in regional weather systems on sea level extremes has not been assessed.
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warming is likely to be discernible on all inhabited continents. Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air
and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea
level.
Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have
increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed preindustrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The main
activities contributing to global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are fossil fuel use
and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to
agriculture. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid20th century is very likely (>90% certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC 4AR).
b) Knowledge Gaps
Since 1990, observed sea level has been rising faster than the rise projected by models
raising concerns that the climate system may be responding more quickly to climate change
than our current generation of models indicates (Rahmstorf et al., 2007).
All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over the period 1953 to 2006.
However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model
simulations show trends comparable to observations (Stroeve et al., 2007).
Scientific capability for modeling external influences on climate has increased. Climate
models have been used to accurately reproduce key features of past climatic condition using
boundary conditions and radiative forcing for these past periods. These analyses of past
data have increased confidence that the models can be used to adequately predict the role
of future external influences on the climate system. The uncertainties associated with the
modeling of future climate scenarios have been divided by the Hadley Centre into three
broad categories: (i) emissions uncertainty; (ii) natural climatic variability; and (iii) modelling
uncertainty (UKCIP). Estimates of some radiative forcings also remain uncertain, including
aerosol forcing and inter-decadal variations in solar forcing.
The major gap in applying climate change knowledge yields from the fact that the majority
of climate models remain global and regional, namely the General Circulation Models
(GCMs), and have limited applications at a smaller scale. Global climate models are the only
tools currently available to us for simulating the complex set of processes that determine
climate at global and regional levels. Difficulties remain in simulating and attributing
observed climate changes at smaller scales where natural variability is larger and less easily
distinguished from climate changes expected from external forcings like human activities.
c) Climate Change and Scenarios
Scenarios are appropriate tools for dealing with the uncertainty in climate chance science.
Scenarios are images of the future, or alternative futures. As an integration tool in the
assessment of climate change they allow a role for intuition, analysis, and synthesis thereby
aiding in the assessment of future climate change, impacts, vulnerabilities, adoption, and
mitigation. To be clear, scenarios are not predictions, rather a set of scenarios can be used
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to assist in the understanding of possible future developments, and hence the development
of a set of alternative scenarios.
For a long time, climate change adaptation planning was hindered by the unavailability and
unreliability of climate forecasts or predictions that could have otherwise informed
estimates of the probability of impacts. Scenarios of future emissions played an important
role from the beginning of the IPCC work. In 1990, the IPCC initiated the development of its
first set of GHG emissions scenarios designed to serve as inputs to general circulation
models (GCMs) and facilitate the assessments of climate-change impacts (Houghton et al.,
1990). Scenarios were initially driven by climate model capacity, more recently they have
been driven by the desire and need for climate impact assessments (See Hulme and Carter
(1999) for a chronology of climate scenarios for impact assessment).
The IPCC’s 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) developed four different
narrative storylines to describe consistently the relationships between emission driving
forces and their evolution and add context for the scenario quantification. Each storyline
represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental
developments, which may be viewed positively by some people and negatively by others.
The storylines use socio-economic information in the form of quantitative assumptions on
population, gross domestic product (GDP), land use, different types of energy use, and rates
of technological progress. Many socio-economic scenarios used in impacts assessments
have taken the IPCC SRES scenarios as a basis for developing storylines and quantitative
scenarios at national and sub-national levels.
For each of the four storylines, scientists developed several different scenarios using
different modeling approaches to examine the range of outcomes arising from a range of
models that use similar assumptions about driving forces. Six models were used which are
representative of integrated assessment frameworks in the literature. One advantage of a
multi-model approach is that the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the
current range of uncertainties of future GHG emissions (Nakicenovic et al., 2000).
The table and chart below illustrates how these six models differ.
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d) Use of scenarios for adaptation planning
Scenarios are a communication tool about what is known and not known about climate
change. In planning for adaptation, scenarios are typically downscaled from general
circulation models (GCMs) to the national and sub-national scale, aiming to determine the
likely impacts of climate change under alternative future scenarios. Impacts assessments
take an aggregated view of the subject of study. They tend to be quantitative and provide
scenarios of future climate impacts for an entire country or region using GCM.
Projections derived from GCMs are usually combined with biophysical analyses and socioeconomic scenarios in order to assess sector specific impacts. Spatial and temporal
differences are often averaged out and trend curves are generally smooth, so that shortterm changes, threshold effects, and localized costs are not easily identified. Undertaken in
isolation, top-down impacts assessments may be disconnected from reality and fail to reach
stakeholders, as there may be too much uncertainty with regard to the local impacts of
climate change. In short, top-down approaches make strong use of biophysical aspects of
climate impacts and aggregate socio-economic data and are often excellent at
problem/issue scoping and first line questions, but they do not fare well in capturing human
interaction and local abilities to adapt.
United Kingdom’s Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) provides comprehensive socioeconomic scenarios for use in impacts assessment at the national and sub-national level
(http://www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios/).Although not based on the SRES, the storylines
developed followed a similar logic by analyzing future socio-economic conditions along four
dimensions of governance and political and social values. Groups of indicators were selected
to describe each of the following categories/sectors: economic development, planning and
built environment, agriculture, water, biodiversity and coastal zone management.
The IPCC Guidelines3, which involve the application of climate scenarios to assess impacts,
have been extremely successful in providing guidance for research on climate change
impacts. The uncertainties of climate and socio-economic scenarios, however, can lead to a
‘‘mismatch’’ of spatial scales between the scale at which scenarios are readily and credibly
available (usually global) and that at which adaptation policy is formulated (local).
Consequently, impact assessments relying on scenarios have not always yielded useful
results for the purposes of adaptation (Burton et al., 2002).
Dessai et al. (2005), included in this sourcebook, considered the use of climate scenarios for
adaptation planning in practice, and present case study examples of different ways in which
scenarios can be used. They show that the role played by scenarios depends on the
approach to adaptation adopted and the financial and technical capacity to handle scenario
information and describe a set of calibrated indicators of adaptive capacity. Through these
indicators show that adaptive capacity is associated primarily not with measures of wealth,
but indicators of governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.
Some proponents of a human development approach argue that rather than using climate
scenarios to guide adaptation decision-making, the focus should be on current climate
3
IPCC guidelines were developed in the early 1990s and used in the TAR. The approach has seven main steps:
1) define problem (including study area, its sectors, etc.); 2) select method of assessment most appropriate to the
problems; 3) test methods/conduct sensitivity analysis; 4) select and apply climate change scenarios; 5) assess
biophysical and socio-economic impacts; 6) assess autonomous adjustments; 7) evaluate adaptation strategies.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
18
variability and existing coping strategies of communities or systems in response to past
and/or ongoing climatic stress. Robust adaptation planning would benefit from ensuring
favorable conditions such that past coping strategies remain successful. Adaptation
measures derived from past experiences could offer cost-effective and ‘‘no-regret’’ options
in most cases, however, if characteristics of climate-related stresses in the future are
significantly different from those under the present conditions they might prove to be
inadequate (Dessai et al., 2005).
e) Considering climate vulnerability and climate change in UNEP projects
UNEP consider climate change in several divisions as well as through collaborations with
other international bodies. UNEP/DEWA, in its work on building capacity to respond to
immediate and often unpredictable events, already considers major weather events like
hurricanes, cyclones, and tornadoes (whose future frequency may change depending on
how they are influenced by climatic attributes), as well as climatic variation (El Niño events,
or droughts caused by lack of rainfall). UNEP/DELC has initiated and implemented a major
programme on climate change outreach in response to the needs of developing countries
and following the request from the UNFCCC Secretariat. UNEP is well situated to integrate
climate change adaptation into its portfolio of working particularly by building on its
ongoing roles in the IPCC, Global Climate Observing Systems (GCOS), Millennium Ecosystems
Assessments (MA), and Atlas project to document and quantify the impact of human on
environmental changes. UNEP’s nice in increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk
of climate-related disasters builds on its expertise and experience in ecosystem
management practices and integrating climate change information.
Key literature
Arnell et al. (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change
impacts assessments: characterizing the SRES storylines, Global Environmental Change
(14) 3-20
2. Burton, I. et al. (2002) From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of
adaptation policy. Climate Policy (2) 145–159
1.
3.
Dessai, S., Lu XianFu, Risbey, J. S. (2005) “On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation
planning”. Global Environmental Change, 2005 (Vol. 15) (No. 2) 87-9
4.
Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R., and Wandel, J. (2000). An Anatomy of Adaptation to
Climate Change and Variability. Climatic Change 45:223-251.
5.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Avery, M. Tignor and H.L.
Miller (eds.). Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 9. Available for download from, http://ipccwg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html.
6.
UNEP
Fact
Sheet
on
Climate
(http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf )
Change:

Key literature is available at the following website:
http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
19
o Climate Change at a Glance
o The Causes of Climate Change
Comprehensive Bibliography
1.
Dilley, M. (2000) Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The
Growing Role of Climate Information. Climatic Change. 45:63-73
2.
Easterling, W., Hurd, B., Smith, J. 2004. Coping with Global Climate Change: The Role of
Adaptation in the United States. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington,
Virginia. Available from, http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Adaptation.pdf.
3.
FAO (2007) Climate Related Risks and Extreme Events Available from,
http://www.fao.org/clim/docs/CDROM/docs/Nairobi/ExtremeEvents23Feb07.pdf
4.
Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-02.PDF
5.
R. Edwards (2007) Sea levels: resolution and uncertainty. Progress in Physical
Geography, Vol. 31, No. 6, 621-632 DOI: 10.1177/0309133307087086. Available from
http://ppg.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/6/621?rss=1
6.
Rahmstorf, S. Anny Cazenave, John A. Church, James E. Hansen, Ralph F. Keeling, David
E. Parker, and Richard C. J. (4 May 2007) Recent Climate Observations Compared to
Projections Science 316 (5825), 709. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1136843
7.
Ribot, J.C. 1996. “Climate Variability, Climate Change and Vulnerability: Moving Forward
by Looking Back”, in: Ribot, J.C., Magalhães, A.R. and Panagides, S.S. (eds.) Climate
Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-arid Tropics. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
8.
Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R., and Wandel, J. (2000). An Anatomy of Adaptation to
Climate Change and Variability. Climatic Change 45:223-251.
9.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.
Miller (eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY,
USA. 9. The following sections are available for download from, http://ipccwg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html.
o Summary for Policymakers
o Technical Summary
o 1. Historical Review of Climate Science
o 8. Climate Models and their Evaluation
o 9. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change.
10.
Stroeve, J., et al. 2007. “Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast.” Geophysical
Research Letters, Vol 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703.
11.
UNEP Fact Sheets on Climate Change, its causes, and consequences
(http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf pages 1-7)
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
20
12.
UNISDR (2006) On Better Terms: A Glance at Key Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Reduction Concepts. Available from, http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climatechange/on-better-terms/On-better-terms.pdf.
13.
US
Global
Change
Research
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ProgramElements/understanding.htm
Program
SCENARIOS LITERATURE
14.
Arnell et al. (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change
impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines, Global Environmental Change
(14) 3-20
15.
Burton, I. et al. (2002) From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of
adaptation policy. Climate Policy (2) 145–159
16.
Dessai, S., Lu XianFu, Risbey, J. S. (2005) “On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation
planning”. Global Environmental Change, 2005 (Vol. 15) (No. 2) 87-9
17.
Engelhaupt, E. 2007. “Models underestimate global warming impacts.” Environmental
Science & Technology, 41, 4488-4489.
18.
Hulme, M., T. Wigley, E. Barrow, S. Raper, A. Centella, S. Smith, and A. Chipanshi. 2000.
Using a Climate Scenario Generator for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments:
MAGICC and SCENGEN Version 2.4 Workbook, Norwich, UK: Climatic Research Unit
19.
Hulme, M., Carter, T.R., 1999. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios and
impact studies, In: Carter, T.R., Hulme, M., Viner, D. (Eds.), Representing Uncertainty in
Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Studies. ECLAT-2 Report No. 1, Helsinki Workshop,
14–16 April 1999, CRU, Norwich, 11–37pp.
20.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) – developed four of their own scenarios
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf;
21.
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Swart, Rob (eds.), (2000) Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios, Available from http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/
22.
Nakicenovic et al. (2003) IPCC SRES Revisited: A Response. Energy & Environment.
Vol.14,
No
2
&
3.
Available
from
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/ipcc-sres-revisited/ipcc-sresrevisited.pdf
23.
Richard S.J. Tol, Brian O’Neill, Detlef P. van Vuuren. (2005) A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF
THE
IPCC
SRES
SCENARIOS
http://www.unihamburg.de/Wiss/FB/15/Sustainability/ensemblessres.pdf
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
21
Part 3: Climate Change Impacts - What are the major impacts on
physical and social systems from climate variability and
change?
Part 3 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on the projected impacts of
climate change on natural and social systems. Vulnerability is an emerging concept for
climate science and policy. Methods of vulnerability assessment have been developed in
the fields of natural hazards, poverty analysis, food security and sustainable livelihoods and,
most recently, to determine how people cope with climate hazards (Füssel and Klein, 2006).
Impacts are discussed in this Part of the Sourcebook relative to the UNEP’s climate change
adaptation areas as identified in the recently developed Adaptation Action Plan i.e., water
resources, coastal zones, biodiversity, sensitive ecosystems/services, land degradation and
agriculture, public health and disaster management.
Overview of key issues and knowledge
a) Introduction
Vulnerability is a broader concept than just impacts of climate change. The prominent
definition of vulnerability in global change and climate change research is defined in the
IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report as follows:
“the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate
change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity.” (IPCC 4AR Glossary, 2007)
This definition incorporates three main variables 1) ‘exposure’4 to climatic variations and 2)
‘sensitivity’5 and 3) ‘adaptive capacity’6 of a system to various stressors (Füssel and Klein,
2006). Because climate impacts occur in the context of a constantly evolving socio-economic
baseline situation, vulnerability assessments make use of socio-economic scenarios, in
addition to climate scenarios, to better capture the non-climatic stressors that influence the
adaptive capacity of systems.
The next few pages draw from the literature to discuss the key impacts from climate change
and using vulnerability assessments to identify physical and social risks due to climate
change. Solomon et al., (2007) and Leary et al., (2008) support the summary of impacts in
this section, the former as part of the IPCC 4AR has an emphasis on the scientific aspects of
vulnerability while the latter builds off case studies in the field to identify vulnerabilities
across scales and systems. Brooks et al., (2004) and Downing and Patwardha (2005)
contribute to our understanding of the creation and application of vulnerability indicators
with respect to vulnerability assessments.
4
Exposure: the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations
Sensitivity: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli
[…] the effect may be direct […] or indirect.
6
Adaptive capacity (in relation to climate change impacts) The ability of a system to adjust to climate change
(including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of
opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
5
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
22
b) Vulnerability to climate change
IPCC Working Group II’s fourth assessment reports the current scientific understanding of
the impacts of climate change on natural, managed, and human systems, in addition to
suggesting the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability. The summary for
policy makers is included in its entirety in the pages following this introduction (Solomon et
al., 2007), however, we highlight the following findings:
 High confidence that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological
systems meaning earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in
species’ geographic ranges.
 High confidence that observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems
are associated with rising water temperatures and changes in ice cover, salinity,
oxygen levels and circulation meaning shifts in species’ ranges, earlier migration of
fish in rivers, increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude oceans
and lakes.
 Increasing maximum and minimum temperatures meaning more hot/cold days and
more heatwaves/cold waves over nearly all land areas.
 More intense precipitation events resulting in flooding, increased erosion, spread of
waterborne-illnesses, and crop inundation.
 Increased summer drying and the associated risk of drought which contributes to
crop failure, food insecurity, and increased erosion and subsequent declining soil
health.
These changes profoundly influence and interact with changes in social systems. For
example, warmer and drier conditions in the Sahel reduce the growing season and
contribute to food insecurity and sea-level rise and temperature changes, alongside human
coastal development contribute to wetland, mangrove and related habitat and livelihood
loss.
To better understand the influence of climate change on physical and social vulnerability as
well as response options in developing country regions, twenty-four regional assessments
were implemented under the international project The Assessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC). The following statements briefly state the main
lessons about vulnerability to emerge from that synthesis (Leary et al., 2008):
 The danger is greatest where natural systems are severely degraded and human
systems are failing.
 The livelihoods and food security of the rural poor are threatened by climate
change.*
 A household’s access to water, land, and other resources is an important
determinant of its vulnerability.*
 Multiple factors converge to make the people inhabiting coastal zones and small
islands highly vulnerable.
 Vulnerability to adverse health impacts is greater where health care systems are
weak and programs for disease surveillance and prevention are lacking.
* These have particular implications for women given gendered differences in
cultural, social and economic roles and access to resources, information and
property.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
23
c) Vulnerability assessments and the use of indicators
Vulnerability assessments are integral in responding to future climate risks and the
assessment process itself can enable the management of current climate risks. Assessments
are typically on a specific scale, (see UNEP’s graphic to the right), while also acknowledging
significant cross-scale interactions given the interdependency of social and ecological
systems and the relationship to national
and sector-level policies and decisions.
Vulnerability depends critically on
context, and the factors that make a
system vulnerable to a hazard will
depend on the nature of the system and
the type of hazard in question. Certain
factors are likely to influence
vulnerability to a wide variety of hazards
in different geographical and sociopolitical contexts. Many researchers
have found that, generally, climate
change is superimposed on existing
vulnerabilities i.e. further reducing
access to drinking water, negatively Image from http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/20.htm
affecting the health of poor people, and
will pose a real threat to food security (Sperling, 2003). Climate change vulnerability
assessments examine the underlying socio-economic, institutional, and, to a lesser extent,
political and cultural factors, that influence vulnerability alongside processes that shape the
consequences of climate variations and change to identify the conditions that amplify or
dampen vulnerability to adverse outcomes.
Brooks et al. (2005) used 46 variables representing generic vulnerability, representing
economic well-being and inequality, health and nutritional status, education, physical
infrastructure, governance, geographic and demographic factors, agriculture, ecosystems
and technological capacity (summary table reproduced below). As the indices developed
were based on indicators of vulnerability related to mortality outcomes from climaterelated disasters, the indicators of adaptive capacity represent the capacity to reduce
mortality from climate hazards, and should be used within this context.
Selected potential proxies for national-level vulnerability to climate change (from Brooks et al., 2005)
Category
Variable
Proxy
Economy
National wealth
GDP per capita (US$ PPP)
Economy
Inequality
GINI coefficient
Health and
Health expenditure per capita (US$ PPP) and/or
State support for health
nutrition
Public health expenditure (% of GDP)
Health and
nutrition
General food availability
Food production index (annual change averaged over
1981–90 and 1991–99)
Infrastructure
Isolation of rural communities
Governance
Willingness to invest in
adaptation
Effectiveness of policies
Roads (km, scaled by land area with 99% of
population)
Political stability
Rule of law
Control of corruption
Governance
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
24
Governance
Geography and
demography
Ecology
Conflict
Coastal risk
Ecology
Sustainability of water resources
Technology
Commitment to and resources
for research
Environmental stress
Internal refugees (1000s) scale by population
km of coastline (scale by land area)
Coastal risk Population within 100km of coastline (%)
Protected land area (%)
Forest change rate (% per year)
Groundwater recharge per capita
Water resources per capita
R&D investment (% GNP)
Developing and using indicators requires awareness of several technical issues, including
their sensitivity to change, standardizing indicators for comparison, reliability of the data,
mapping of indicators, coverage of relevant dimensions of vulnerability, and others.
(Downing and Patwardhan, 2005) If existing inventories are available, many of these issues
will have already been addressed and the literature on indicators provides examples of good
practice (see indicators section bibliography).
The growth of different approaches to assessing climate change impact, adaptation and
vulnerability (CCIAV) has been driven by the need for improved decision analysis. Ultimately,
the choice of assessment methodology must be guided by the locus of the problem—the
nature of the actors and their networks, the role of environmental trends and surprise, the
information needs of the users, and the resources available to the team. A sophisticated
model that fails to address a key vulnerability is misleading and an abuse of the
responsibility of the expert to provide robust assessments (Downing and Ziervogel). A
spreadsheet with additional tools, a drawing canvass for building a flow chart of
vulnerability projects, and a guided process of choosing generic tools is available from
www.vulnerabilitynet.org.
Example: ecosystem vulnerability
The vulnerability of ecosystems and species to climate change is influenced by the specificity
of their climate requirements, the change in spatial extent of areas that match those
requirements, the degree of connectivity between suitable areas, the rates at which suitable
climates move across the landscape, and the rates at which different species can migrate.
Anthropogenic pressures also shape vulnerability by weakening ecosystem resilience and
fragmenting land uses that pose barriers to species migration. Such “other” drivers listed in
the table below influence one another and result in changes that undermine ecosystem
functioning on top of impacts due to climate change.
Local weather regimes shifts could lead to shifts in species composition, which would
change competitive interactions among species and affect the distribution and abundance
of pests, fire frequency, and climate-sensitive soil processes such as erosion and
decomposition. As climate change leads to increased disturbances such as fire or drought,
these disruptions also create the type of environment ripe for the invasion and spread of
introduced non-native and pest species. A key determinant of the adaptability of an
ecosystem or species is its ability to migrate as the climatic conditions it favors shift; species
unable to migrate to more climatically suitable habitats are more vulnerable to these
anticipated impacts of climate change (McKenney-Easterling et al., 2000; Leary et al., 2008).
The introduction to Leary et al. (2008) includes clear summary tables of sector level impacts,
including table 1.3 on Ecosystems and Biodiversity Vulnerabilities here:
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
25
Level of
Concern
HIGH
Outcomes of
Concern
Climate Drivers
Other Drivers
Collapse or loss
of entire
ecosystem and
extinction of
many of the
system’s species
 Rapid rate of change in
mean temperature
 Changes in water
balance across an
ecosystem’s geographic
distribution that are
beyond tolerance limits
of dominant species
 Changes in seasonal
climate extremes,
variability and means
MEDIUM
Species loss and
retrogressive
succession
 Greater water stress from
higher temperatures and
lower precipitation
LOW
 Genetic loss
 Loss of genetic
variability, loss
of sub-species
and varieties
 Slow changes in climate
 Small absolute changes in
temperature and
precipitation that do not
fundamentally alter
water balances
 Narrow climate tolerances of dominant species of an
ecosystem
 Extensive habitat loss/fragmenting due to land use change
 Severe pressure from overgrazing, over-harvesting, overfishing, etc.
 Severe competition from invasive species
 Severe pressure from pollution
 Changing fire regimes
 Physical barriers to species migration (e.g. islands,
mountain tops, isolated valleys)
 Changes in grass-tree interactions due to increase CO2 in
atmosphere
 Moderate pressure on ecosystems due to habitat loss and
fragmentation, overexploitation, competition from invasive
species, and pollution
 Changing fire regimes
 Changes in grass-tree interactions due to increase CO2 in
atmosphere
More severe effects kept in check by:
 Managing pressures on ecosystems to a low level
 Connections of suitable habitat enable species to migrate
For a broader range of impacts on additional sectors, see:
1) the IPCC 4AR Summary for Policymakers includes a summary table with examples of
possible impacts of climate change (Solomon et al., 2007)
2) the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) situates the impact of climate on
ecosystems and biodiversity in the context of other drivers (see Reid et al., 2005,
p16).
d) Including climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments in UNEP projects
Vulnerability assessments can act as stand-alone indicators of a system’s state of
vulnerability or they can be integrated with climate forecasts to assess future climate
vulnerability. Assessments of key vulnerabilities, based on identified criteria, provide
information on the rates and levels of climate change and contribute to the identification of
avenues by which to build resilience. Developing expertise in this area will enable UNEP to
support valuable work in understanding ecosystem vulnerability to the international
community’s related vulnerability work in development, food security, disaster mitigation,
health, and poverty reduction. Part 5 of this Sourcebook on climate risks to UNEP projects
underscores the usefulness of conducting climate vulnerability assessments in identifying
risks, building resilience, and developing adaptation strategies.
e) Looking ahead
A system’s future vulnerability depends on its development pathway in addition to
anticipated climate changes, making a strong case for integrated vulnerability assessments
and building the resilience of both social and ecological systems to climate change hazards.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
26
Adaptation is necessary, given the impacts resulting from warming alone; especially when
considering current warming from past emissions is unavoidable, and future warming from
current emissions may be similarly unavoidable. For UNEP, this means supporting more
work to improve the methodologies, tools and information that are needed for improving
the current understanding of vulnerability and how to reduce it in response to climate risks
within UNEP’s own portfolio as well as in collaboration with other international entities
working in this area.
The literature included in the sourcebook suggests both the ways in which vulnerability
identified within a system, and the ways in which some projects have begun using that
knowledge to inform adaptation processes. The literature includes background papers that
establish the theoretical underpinnings of the relationship between vulnerability, risk, and
climate hazards. It also includes sector impact assessments, beyond the ecosystem example
listed above, to emphasize the role of multiple vulnerabilities (ecological, social, economic,
physical) within any given system that contributes to its ability to respond and adapt to
climate change, variability and hazards.
Key literature
7.
Adger, N. (2006) Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change. 16 268–281
8.
Brooks, N. Adger, W.N. and Kelly, P. (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and
adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global
Environmental Change Part A Volume 15, Issue 2, Pages 151-163
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006
9.
Downing, T. and Patwardhan, A. (2005) Assessing vulnerability for climate change
adaptation. Adaptation Planning Framework Technical Paper 3. Available from,
http://www.undp.org/gef/undpgef_publications/publications/apf%20technical%20paper03.pdf.
10.
Downing, T. and Ziervogel, Gina (n.d.) Vulnerability indicators and mapping in Poverty
and Vulnerability Programme.
11.
Füssel, H. and Klein, R. (2006) Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments an Evolution of
Conceptual Thinking. Climatic Change (75) 301-329.
12.
Rogers, C. and McCarty, J. (2000) Climate Change and Ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic
Region. Climate Research. Vol. 14: 235–244 Available from http://www.intres.com/articles/cr/14/c014p235.pdf
13.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.
Miller (eds.)]. Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Vulnerability
and Adaptation. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 9. The following sections are available for
download from, http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html.
14.
UNEP. Fact Sheet on Climate Change: Consequences for the future. Available from:
http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf

Key literature is available at the following website:
http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
27
15.
van Aalst, M. (2006) The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters
Disasters, Volume 30, Issue 1, Page 5-18, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00303.x
16.
Carter, T.R., R.N. Jones, X. Lu, S. Bhadwal, C. Conde, L.O. Mearns, B.C. O’Neill, M.D.A.
Rounsevell and M.B. Zurek, 2007: New Assessment Methods and the Characterisation of
Future Conditions. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J.
van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 133171.
Comprehensive Bibliography
a) Vulnerability and vulnerability assessments
1. Adger, N. (2006) Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change. 16 268–281
2. Adger, N. Kelly, P. (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change
and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47: 325–352, 2000.
3. Frank Thomalla, Tom Downing, Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Guoyi Han, Johan Rockström
(2006) Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster
risk reduction and climate adaptation Disasters 30 (1) , 39–48 doi:10.1111/j.14679523.2006.00305.x accessed via Blackwell Synergy
17.
Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell,
O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A. Velichko, 2007: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and
services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E.
Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 211-272.
4. Lance Gunderson, C S Holling, L Pritchard, and G D Peterson. Resilience in The Earth
system: biological and ecological dimensions of global environmental change, Volume 2,
pp 530–531
5. Leary et al (Eds.) (2008) For whom the bell tolls: vulnerabilities in a changing climate in
Climate Change and Vulnerability.
6. PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (2000), Weather Impacts on Natural,
Social and Economic Systems. PIK report 59. Available from http://www.pikpotsdam.de/research/publications/pikreports/.files/pr59.pdf
b) Social and gendered vulnerability
7. Dankelman, Irene, “Climate change: learning from gender analysis and womenʼs
experiences of organizing for sustainable development,” Gender & Development, Vol.
10, No. 2, July 2002.
8. DAW and UN/ISDR, “Environmental Management and the Mitigation of Natural
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98. de Sherbinin, A., A. Schiller, and A. Pulsipher (2007), The vulnerability of global cities to
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Urbanization 2007; 19; 39 DOI: 10.1177/0956247807076725
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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Part 4: Climate Change Adaptation - What does it mean to adapt,
and what are the key premises regarding the need to build
adaptive capacity in UNEP projects?
Part 4 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on the key premises, issues,
and drivers associated with adaptation to climate change in natural and social systems. As
the previous Parts of this Sourcebook have touched on, climate variability and future
climate change - together with other non-climatic stresses - produce actual or potentially
adverse impacts such that planned efforts to adapt to those impacts are needed. Individuals
and communities have been adapting for millennia to climate variability, but in no way can
it be argued that certain regions, particularly in developing countries, are well adapted to
current climate conditions.
Overview of key issues and knowledge
a) Introduction
As background to a discussion about adaptation there are few key terms that are most
helpful if defined from the very beginning. By the term “adaptation” what is meant is the
adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli
or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Both near-term
and long-term climatic stimuli are considered. Various types of adaptation can be
distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation,
and autonomous and planned adaptation (Smit et al., 2000; Klein et al, 20057).
When describing a system’s ability to adjust in response to climate change (including climate
variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of
opportunities, or to cope with the consequences we use the concept of adaptive capacity.
Adaptive capacity in ecological systems is related to genetic diversity, biological diversity,
and the heterogeneity of landscape mosaics. In social systems, the existence of institutions
and networks that learn and store knowledge and experience, create flexibility in problem
solving and balance power among interest groups play an important role in adaptive
capacity (www.resalliance.org/565.php). Enhancing a system’s adaptive capacity is
important to ensure that the vulnerability of the region to future climate change risks is
reduced.
Resilience is key to building adaptive capacity. Resilience is the magnitude of disturbance
that can be tolerated before a socioecological system (SES) moves to a different region of
state space controlled by a different set of processes (IPCC 4AR). Systems with high adaptive
capacity are most able to re-configure themselves without significant declines in crucial
7 Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed. Also referred to as
proactive adaptation.
Autonomous adaptation – Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by
ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Also referred to as
spontaneous adaptation.
Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions
have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state. (IPCC,
2007)
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
36
functions. Any loss of resilience, and therefore of adaptive capacity, is loss of opportunity
resulting in constrained options during periods of re-organisation and renewal, and an
inability of the system to do different things. www.resalliance.org/565.php
Key premises for adaptation:






Countries are maladapted to current and future climate risks
National policy context does not adequately incorporate climate change risks
Serious physical impacts accompany extreme climatic events
Poor populations at greatest risk to climate shocks and hazards
In many countries, the capacity to adapt to climate change is often limited by a lack
of resources, poor institutions and inadequate infrastructure, amongst other things
Gendered access to resources influences land tenure rights, education, availability of
credit undermines women’s adaptive capacity
b) What does the literature say about adaptation and adaptive capacity?
Adaptation can be either reactive or anticipatory. Reactive adaptation occurs after the initial
impacts of climate change have become manifest, while anticipatory (or proactive)
adaptation takes place before impacts are apparent. A second distinction can be based on
the system in which the adaptation takes place: the natural system (in which adaptation is
by definition reactive) or the human system (in which both reactive and anticipatory
adaptation are observed). Within the human system, adaptation can be motivated by
private or public interests (Klein et al., 2006).
Adger et al. (2005) examine criteria for the definition of “successful” adaptation, showing
how they vary with spatial scale and are interpreted and weighted differently by different
interest groups. Brooks et al. (2005) explore factors affecting adaptive capacity at the
national scale including a set of calibrated indicators of adaptive capacity, showing that
adaptive capacity is associated primarily not with measures of wealth, but indicators of
governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.
Since adaptation does not occur instantaneously, the relationship between adaptive
capacity and vulnerability depends on timescales and hazards. The vulnerability, or potential
vulnerability, of a system to climate change that is associated with anticipated hazards in
the medium- to long-term will depend on that system’s success at anticipatory adaptation
(Brooks et al., 2005).
There are various ways to classify or distinguish between adaptation options. First,
depending on the timing, goal and motive of its implementation, adaptation can be either
reactive or anticipatory. Reactive adaptation occurs after the initial impacts of climate
change have become manifest, whilst anticipatory (or proactive) adaptation takes place
before impacts are apparent. A second distinction can be based on the system in which the
adaptation takes place: the natural system (in which adaptation is by definition reactive) or
the human system (in which both reactive and anticipatory adaptation are observed).
Within the human system a third distinction can be based on whether the adaptation
decision is motivated by private or public interests. Private decision-makers include both
individual households and commercial companies, whilst public interests are served by
governments at all levels. The Figure below shows examples of adaptation activities for each
of the five types of adaptation that have thus been defined (from Klein et al, 2005).
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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A key point is that adaptation to climate change is an ongoing and reiterative process that
includes information development, awareness raising, planning, design, implementation and
monitoring. Reducing vulnerability requires having mechanisms in place and technologies,
expertise and other resources available to complete each part of this process. The mere
existence of technologies for adaptation does not mean that every vulnerable community,
sector or country has access to these options or is in a position to implement them.
c) Adaptive Capacity
In the past, adaptations to either climate variability or change (i.e., the reduction of
vulnerability to climate) have mostly been responsive (i.e., not anticipatory), mainly driven
by record-breaking extreme weather events (e.g., floods of 1953 or 2000 in Britain,
extended drought in Australia, etc.) or market changes (e.g., changes in insurance
premiums). As awareness about the potential impacts of human-induced climate change has
grown (at different levels throughout countries and sectors), so has the desire to plan (in
advance) for the impacts of climate change so that the negative hazards can be mitigated
and the benefits enhanced (Scheraga and Grambsch, 1998; Dessai et al)
Rogers and McCarty (2000) suggest similar uncertainties and because of these adaptation
options are limited and their effectiveness unknown. Building resilience is one of the main
ways to ensure wildlife and habitat adaptation and this can be achieved by addressing
existing stresses on ecosystems. The primary anthropogenic stresses are land-use changes
that cause loss of biodiversity, disruption of carbon, nitrogen and other biogeochemical
cycles, human-caused nonnative species invasions, and releases of toxic substances.
Reducing the impacts of these non-climate stresses on ecosystems would then buffer
ecosystems from potential harmful impacts due to climate change.
The notion of adaptive capacity has brought to light the importance of considering the
linkages between adaptation and development. It is recognised that climate change poses a
threat to important development issues such as water supply, food security, human health,
natural resources and protection against natural hazards. This recognition has moved
adaptation from being the “handmaiden to impacts research in the mitigation context”
(Burton et al., 2002) to an activity that is considered crucial within the broader context of
sustainable development. The link between adaptation and sustainable development is
particularly relevant when seeking to enhance the capacity of countries and communities to
adapt to climate change, which is often limited by a lack of resources, poor institutions and
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
38
inadequate infrastructure, amongst other things (Smith et al., 2003). In addition, the notion
of adaptive capacity has helped to demonstrate that adaptation is not a new activity only
relevant when addressing climate change, but instead an ongoing process to reduce
vulnerability both to today’s and tomorrow’s climate. (from Klein et al, 2005)
)
Vulnerability before project
Increased resilience
through adaptation
measures
Vulnerability after
project
Historical climate
Coping range
changes
by
development
only
(no
project)
(mean and variability)
System
coping range
(Resilience)
Adaptation
measure:
additional
cost
on development
Today’s
climate
Time
Future climate
scenario
GEF
Project
d) Criteria for selecting adaptation strategies
Work on adaptation so far has addressed the impacts of climate change, rather than
sufficiently addressing the underlying factors that cause vulnerability to it. While there is a
significant push all around for adaptation to be better placed in development planning,
there is a missing step if vulnerability reduction is not considered central to this. A
successful adaptation process will require adequately addressing the underlying causes of
vulnerability. A sustainable adaptation process appears to first require adjustments in
policies, institutions and attitudes that establish enabling conditions, and second be
accompanied by eventual technological and infrastructural changes.
An effective adaptation process would therefore hinge on the ability of livelihoods, which
includes social networks, cultural traditions, and activities that provide food and income, to
be sufficiently flexible so that no adverse impacts of climate change are discernable on the
social system. Such enabling conditions would clearly facilitate a sustainable development
process, but would also require overcoming factors that cause vulnerability to climate
change, such as differential access to resources based on gender, age, belief systems or
other characteristics, state of environment in which people live, viability of livelihoods in
existing economic systems (Schipper, 2007).
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
39
In thinking about adaptation, we often
ask: Who or what adapts? How does
adaptation occur? How good is the
adaptation? Generally circumscribing the
overarching
question
“what
is
adaptation?”. The figure above captures
this discussion, and speaks to the critical
element of identifying adaptation options
or measures to be recommended as part
of a response strategy. This entails
evaluating a strategy based on critieria
that depends on the tools being used as
well as the context in which they are
being applied. Evaluation of adaptation
options can be based on criteria such as
costs, benefits, equity, efficiency,
urgency, and implementability, for
example (Smit et al., 2000).
e) Looking ahead
A firm grasp on how the climate is changing, the scientific and normative underpinnings of
impacts and vulnerability, and methods for assessing human or ecological vulnerability to
climate change impacts and risks informs the adaptation identification and planning
process. The first few sections in this sourcebook provide a knowledge based for
understanding vulnerability and adaptation. The next sections highlight risks to UNEP
portfolio, as well as methods for climate-proofing and integrating adaptation. Risks included
in section Part 5 and will be elaborated upon as programs of work begin to screen existing
and pipelined programs for vulnerability to climate change using the available and
developing new climate-screening tools referenced in Part 6.
With this evolving body of knowledge in hand, UNEP project managers can begin to apply
existing adaptation frameworks in support of its MTS for 2008-2013 as well as meet the
objectives of the Adaptation Action Plan to build key adaptive capacity of the developing
world to climate change, increasing ecosystem resilience, reduce the risk of climate-related
disasters and conflicts, and mobilize and manage knowledge for adaptation policy and
planning across UN bodies. Climate Change and Development – Adapting by Reducing
Vulnerability (CC-DARE), a joint initiative of UNEP and UNDP, is a key example of integrating
adaptation into environment and economic development plans.
The literature in this Part of the Sourcebook includes academic articles that explore the
conceptual relationship between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation to climate change.
Many emphasize the linkage between sustainable development and adaptation planning,
and the role that a society’s socio-economic context and social vulnerability play in its
capacity to adapt.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
40
Key literature
18.
Adger, N. Hug, S., Brown, K., Conway, D., Hulme, M. (2003) Adapting to climate change
in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies (3)3, 179-195.
19. Brooks, N. (2006) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall Centre
Working Paper No. 38
20.
UNEP Fact Sheet on Climate Change: Living with climate change. Available from:
http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf
21. Kane and Yohe, 2000 S.M. Kane and G.W. Yohe, Societal adaptation to climate variability and
change: an introduction, Climatic Change 45 (2000), pp. 1–4.
22.
Larson, M. (2002) Transforming power relationships: building capacity for ecological
security in Gender, Development, and Climate Change Maskia, R. (ed) Oxfam: Oxford,
UK,
23.
Denton, F. (2002) Climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation: why does
gender matter? in Gender, Development, and Climate Change Maskia, R. (ed) Oxfam:
Oxford, UK,
24.
Roy, M. and Venema, H. (2002) Reducing risk and vulnerability to climate change in
India: the capabilities approach in Gender, Development, and Climate Change Maskia, R.
(ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK,
Comprehensive Bibliography
1. Adger, N. Hug, S., Brown, K., Conway, D., Hulme, M. (2003) Adapting to climate change
in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies (3)3, 179-195.
2. Adger, N. Kelly, P. (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change
and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47: 325–352,
3. Adger, N. Net al. (2005), Successful adaptation to climate change across scales, Global
Environmental Change 15 , pp. 77–86
4. Brooks, N. (2006) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall
Centre Working Paper No. 38
5. Burton, I. et al. (2002) From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of
adaptation policy. Climate Policy (2) 145–159
6. Eakin, H. and Bojórquez-Tapia, L. (2008) Insights into the composition of household
vulnerability from multicriteria decision analysis Global Environmental Change Volume
18, Issue 1, , Pages 112-127 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.09.001
7. Füssel, H. and Klein, R. (2006) Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments an Evolution of
Conceptual Thinking. Climatic Change (75) 301-329.
8. Graham, A. (2001). Gender mainstreaming guidelines for disaster management
programmes: a principled socio-economic and gender analysis approach Paper prepared
for the Expert Working Group meeting, Ankara, Turkey. Available through the UN

Key literature is available at the following website:
http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
41
Division
for
the
Advancement
of
www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/csw/env_manage/documents.html
Women:
9. Kane and Yohe, 2000 S.M. Kane and G.W. Yohe, Societal adaptation to climate variability
and change: an introduction, Climatic Change 45 (2000), pp. 1–4.
10. Manyena, S. (2006) The concept of resilience revisited. Disasters, 30(4): 433−450
11. Preparation Workshop : Adaptation Priorities for Jamaica, 7 SGP projects currently under
implementation Projects in Biodiversity and Land Degradation GEF focal areas. Available
from: http://www.undp.org/gef/adaptation/index.htm
12. Rob de Loë, Reid Kreutzwiser and Liana Moraru, Adaptation options for the near term:
climate change and the Canadian water sector Global Environmental Change , Volume
11, Issue 3, October 2001, Pages 231-245
13. Röhr , U. Gender and Climate Change - a Forgotten Issue? Tiempo Climate Newswatch.
Available from: http://www.tiempocyberclimate.org/newswatch/comment050711.htm 14. Scheffer, M S.Carpenter, J.Foley, C.Folke, & B.n Walker (2001) Catastrophic shifts in
ecosystems. Nature (413)
15. Schipper, L. (2007) Climate Change Adaptation and Development: Exploring the Linkages
16. Smit, B. and Wandel, J. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability Global
Environmental Change, Volume 16, Issue 3, August 2006, Pages 282-292
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008 .
17. Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R., and Wandel, J. (2000). An Anatomy of Adaptation to
Climate Change and Variability. Climatic Change 45:223-251
18. UNEP Fact Sheet on Climate Change: Living with climate change Avaiable from:
(http://www.unep.org/Themes/climatechange/PDF/factsheets_English.pdf
19. Vincent, K. (2007) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale Global
Environmental Change Volume 17, Issue 1, Pages 12-24
20. Vogel , C. (2007) Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice:
Pathways, players, and partnerships Global Environmental Change, Volume 17, Issues 34,
Pages
349-364
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.002
21. Ziervogel, G. Sukaina Bharwani and Thomas E. Downing. Adapting to climate variability:
Pumpkins, people and policy. Natural Resources Forum 30 (2006) 294–305 (available
from
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.14778947.2006.00121.x%40narf.2007.31.issue-v1)
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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Part 5: Climate Change Risks - What are the major types of climate
risks faced in UNEP’s portfolio?
Part 5 of this Sourcebook provides an overview of the types of climatic risks that need to be
considered in future UNEP project/programme development.
Overview of key issues and knowledge
a) Introduction
Based on UNEP’s action plan on climate change adaptation, its essential purpose in
mainstreaming adaptation is to meet the twin needs of vulnerable countries for
environment protection and economic development, and assisting them in integrating
adaptation into their multi-faceted planning and deliberative processes. As noted in Part 2
of this Sourcebook, the following 3 pillars were established to reflect this purpose:
1) Building key adaptive capacity of the developing world
2) Increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk of climate-related disasters
3) Mobilizing and using knowledge for adaptation planning
The understanding and identification of climate risks are prerequisite in fulfilling the
purpose and supporting pillars. The following sections summarize climate risks that
influence ecosystem functioning and suggest implications for task managers following
UNEP’s Medium Term Strategy (MTS) and the recent Action Plan for Climate Change
Adaptation.
b) Main climate risks for consideration (from Schneider et al., 2007-unless otherwise noted)
Regions that are already at high risk from observed climate variability and climate change
are more likely to be adversely affected in the near future by projected changes in climate
and increases in the magnitude and/or frequency of already damaging extreme events.
There is high confidence that developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate
change than developed countries. Less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to
both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity.
There is new evidence that observed climate change is likely to have already increased the
risk of certain extreme events such as heatwaves, and it is more likely than not that
warming has contributed to the intensification of some tropical cyclones, with increasing
levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
Changes in arid areas (as a result of climate change) are relatively small. This follows from
the fact that climate change results in increasing precipitation, but also increasing
evaporation (as a result of temperature increase). For desertification, however, the increase
in arid areas is less important than the pressure on these areas. Therefore, the combination
of agricultural land expansion in arid areas leads to an increased vulnerability to climatic
shocks (GEO-4).
There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and
vulnerable systems (such as polar and high-mountain communities and ecosystems), with
increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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There is wide agreement that it will be much more difficult for both human and natural
systems to adapt to larger magnitudes of global mean temperature change than to smaller
ones, and that adaptation will be more difficult and/or costly for faster warming rates than
for slower rates.
Systemic thresholds may lead to large and widespread consequences that may be
considered as ‘dangerous’. Examples include climate impacts such as those arising from ice
sheet disintegration leading to large sea level rises or changes to the carbon cycle, or those
affecting natural and managed ecosystems, infrastructure and tourism in the Arctic.
Smooth and gradual climate change may also lead to damages that are considered
unacceptable beyond a certain point. For instance, even a gradual and smooth increase of
sea-level rise would eventually reach a level that certain stakeholders would consider
unacceptable.
UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO-4) highlights the fact that ecological and social
systems can reach tipping points beyond which there are abrupt, accelerating, or potentially
irreversible changes. Potential tipping points include simultaneous crop failures in different
regions, a possible flip by the Amazon Basin from its present wet phase to a dry one, with
profound implications elsewhere as well. The GEO-4 scenarios show an increasing risk of
crossing such tipping points due in part to both climatic and non-climatic drivers of change.
The following represents a possible summary:

Climate risks to ecosystems, regions, and countries: This includes exposure of
investments to climate risks, as well as the identification of climate risks to agency
activities;

Direct threats to project performance: this includes development initiatives face
important climate risks, including direct threat (investments irreversibly damaged by
flood/drought), under-performance (investments cannot deliver projected benefits
because of climate conditions), maladaptation (investments that create newvulnerability by promoting activities in disaster-prone areas)
c) Managing risks to UNEP projects for task managers
Climate proofing means identifying risks to a project, or any other specified natural or
human asset, as a consequence of both current and future climate variability and extremes.
It involves ensuring that those risks are reduced to acceptable levels through long-lasting
and environmentally sound, economically viable, and socially acceptable changes
implemented at one or more of the following stages in the project cycle: planning, design,
construction, operation, and decommissioning. UNEP’s GEO-4 scenarios point to both risks
and opportunities in the future and to the need to account for interlinkages among systems
in pursuing a more sustainable path. Climate change is seen as the dominant entry point for
managing interlinkages because it affords a conceptual space to address both mitigation and
adaptation challenges. Task managers will need to take into consideration the following
proposed actions that interface with climate hazards:

Integrated water resources management

Integrated coastal zone management

Protecting biodiversity
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
44

Coping with melting glaciers and mountain disasters

Urbanization in developing countries

Reducing risk of climate-related disasters
It is important to note that UNEP’s Medium Term Strategy contains cross-cutting thematic
priorities related to climate risks, as noted below:

Climate change- strengthen ability of countries to integrate climate change
responses into national development processes

Disasters and conflicts- minimize environmental threats to human well-being arising
from the environmental causes and consequences of conflicts and disasters
emphasis on increasing ecosystem resilience and reducing the risk of climate-related
disasters.

Ecosystem management- promote and enable countries to utilize the ecosystem
approach to enhance human well-being

Environmental governance- strengthen environmental governance at country,
regional, and global levels to address agreed environmental priorities

Harmful substances and hazardous waste-minimize the impact of harmful
substances and hazardous waste on the environment and human beings

Resource efficiency- sustainable consumption and production-natural resources are
produced, processed, and consumed in a more environmentally sustainable way.

One Institutional mechanism: Ensuring gender responsiveness environmental
management partly through building capacity of UNEP staff with regards to gender
issues and analysis.
A sample of tools for vulnerability assessment is shown in the following table. We first have
included brief descriptions of the tools, and the table cross-references the tools with the
different aspects of the overall process each captures: present vulnerability, problem
definition, development futures, evaluation of adaptation, strategic planning, multistakeholder analysis, and stakeholder participation. As mentioned previously, the choice of
methodology must be guided by the locus of the problem—the nature of the actors and
their networks, the role of environmental trends and surprise, the information needs of the
users, and the resources available to the team (Downing and Ziervogel).
Description of tools
1. Agent-based simulation modelling – formalism of agents and their interactions at multiple levels
2. Bayesian analysis – statistical analysis used to re-assess probabilistic data in light of new data.
3. Brainstorming – free-flowing lists/diagrams of all ideas and options
4. Checklists – matrix
5. Cognitive mapping – conceptual model that incorporates diverse stakeholder perceptions
6. Cost-effectiveness/ Cost-benefit/ Expected value – econometric techniques
7. Cross-impact analysis – test robustness of risk-assessment and dependencies between events
8. Decision conferencing – quantitative analysis of options incorporating the uncertainties in
interactive modes
9. Decision/probability trees – charts of relationships between decision modes; helpful for
generating expected value
10. Delphi technique – range of views of experts through iterative written correspondence
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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11. Environmental
assessment/Strategic
environmental assessments –
consideration of all
environmental impacts taken
into account before deciding
on development
12. Expert judgement – the
assessment of experts in the
field on specific propositions
13. Focus groups – groups of
stakeholders that discuss
their opinions on certain
topics
14. Indicators/ mapping –
compilation of indicators into
aggregate indices, often
mapped
15. Influence diagrams/
Mapping tools – graphic
identification of options when
there are a number of
decisions
16. Multi-criterion analysis –
scoring and weighting of
options using indicators and
more than one decision
criteria
17. Ranking/ dominance
analysis/ pairwise
comparisons – preference of
options
18. Risk analysis – approaches
to decision uncertainty including hedging and flexing, regret, minimax and maximin
19. Role-play – a participatory ‘game’ to uncover behaviour, trends and expectations
20. Scenario analysis – fuller picture of implications of uncertainty gained through simultaneous
variation of key uncertainties
21. Stakeholder consultation – consultation with individuals and/or groups affected by future
processes
22. Stakeholder Thematic Networks (STN) – mapping of the key actors and their interactions
23. Vulnerability profiles – mapping of the different indicators of vulnerability for different groups
24. Wealth ranking - classify members of a community into wealth categories
d) Looking ahead
With knowledge of climate risks to UNEP programming and available tools for assessing
vulnerability to risk (as detailed in Section 6), UNEP will be better situated to build key
adaptive capacity of developing countries and mobilize and use that knowledge for
adaptation planning.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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Key literature
1. Australian Greenhouse Office, (2005).Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting
an
efficient
adaptation
response
in
Australia
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/risk-vulnerabilitysummary.pdf
2. Cairns, J. (2004) Ecological Tipping Points : A Major Challenge for Experimental Sciences.
Asian
J.
Exp.
Sci.,
Vol.
18,
No.
1&2,
1-16
http://www.johncairns.net/Papers/Ecological%20Tipping%20Points.pdf
3. Cannon, T. (2002) Gender and Climate Hazards in Bangladesh in Gender, Development,
and Climate Change. Rachel Masika (ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK.
4. Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M.
Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A.Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007:
Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.
Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810. Available from: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/ .
5. Hazards
of
Nature,
Risks
to
development
Available
from:
http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/naturaldisasters/docs/natural_disasters_evaluation.pdf
Comprehensive Bibliography
1. Australian Greenhouse Office, (2005).Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting
an
efficient
adaptation
response
in
Australia
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/risk-vulnerabilitysummary.pdf
2. Barros, V. et al. (2008) Storm surges, rising seas and flood risks in metropolitan Buenos
Aires, in Climate Change and Vulnerability. Leary et al. (eds). AIACC Working Paper No.
26
available
from:
http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP26_Barros
%20(rev)%201.pdf
3. Cairns, J. (2004) Ecological Tipping Points : A Major Challenge for Experimental Sciences.
Asian
J.
Exp.
Sci.,
Vol.
18,
No.
1&2,
1-16
http://www.johncairns.net/Papers/Ecological%20Tipping%20Points.pdf
4. Cannon, T. (2002) Gender and Climate Hazards in Bangladesh in Gender, Development,
and Climate Change. Rachel Masika (ed) Oxfam: Oxford, UK.
5. Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M.
Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A.Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007:
Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.

Key literature is available at the following website:
http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
47
Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810. Available from: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/ .
6. UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook 4 : Environment for development
http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/01_Environment_for_Development.pdf
7. UNFCCC (2007) Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and adaptation in developing
countries.
a. Chapter IV looks at the current and future impacts and vulnerabilities across
these sectors in developing countries.
8. Verdin, J. et al. (2005) Climate science and famine early warning. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B
(2005)
360,
2155–2168.
doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1754
(Available
from:
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/pubs/Climate%20Science%20and%20Famine%20EW.
pdf)
9. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots project at the Center for Hazards and Risk
Research at Columbia University, NY, USA, generated a global disaster risk assessment
and a set of more localized or hazard-specific case studies.
a. Synthesis
report
from:
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/hazards/hotspots/synthesisreport.pdf
b. 6
case
study
reports
from:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDISMGMT/Resources/0821363328.pd
f?resourceurlname=0821363328.pdf
i. Nichols, R. Chapter 3: Storm Surges in Coastal Areas p.79-108
c. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis Data available from
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/research/hotspots/coredata.html.
10. Hazards
of
Nature,
Risks
to
development
Available
from:
http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/naturaldisasters/docs/natural_disasters_evaluation.pdf
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
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Part 6: Climate Change Tools - What tools are currently available
for screening projects regarding the integration of climate
risks into project design?
Part 6 of this Sourcebook provides basic background material on tools and methods for
screening projects for adaptation to climate change concerns. The information presented in
this Part of the Sourcebook draws heavily from a 2007 workshop on Sharing Climate
Adaptation Tools: Improving decision-making for development organized by the World Bank,
the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and the Institute for Development
Studies. The workshop outputs provide a valuable synthesis of available tools and are
described below. After each tool description, we have listed a website for more information.
Overview of key issues and knowledge
a) Introduction
Tools range from broad information providers on climate projections (eg PRECIS), disasters
(eg UN-ISDR) and on vulnerability (eg CAIT, ILRI-et al), through to those targeting project
design (eg CRiSTAL, UNDP, ADAPT, USAID Guidebook), others on creating spaces/platforms
for decision support, and others that took a screening approach to evaluate portfolios and
justify design changes (eg DGIS, ORCHID). A broadly common approach is evident that
integrates climate-related impacts as an additional stressor; adaptive responses should
therefore build into existing decision-making structures, languages, and priorities.
Tools are targeting a particular niche approach or user group. Users range from vulnerable
communities themselves, through to donors and partner-country policy-makers. There
remains a considerable gap in existing tools in between those aimed at grassroots
community level and senior officials. Champions at other levels need to be targeted users
and beneficiaries, including traditional leaders at local level, through local government, and
into the private sector, especially small and medium size enterprises.
b) Tools for Information generation, databases and platforms
Current information generation and database tools provide a wide variety of audiences with
climate and vulnerability related information. For the most part, the information is open
source and provides analysis across a wide variety of sectors and scales. These are not
decision-making tools but rather provide donors, governments and NGOs with inputs that
could be utilized for risk management and adaptation management processes. This category
ranges from those databases that utilize Global Circulation Modeling (GCM) (eg. PRECIS) as
well as general vulnerability and adaptation data (eg. NAPA Platform).
PRECIS - Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies - UK Met Office Hadley Centre: This
tool provides climate impact assessments in developing country contexts which are freely
available to numerous users. The tool uses GCM (GCM) to provide grid-scale averages of
spatio-temporal hydro-climatic state variables as well as soil hydrology and
thermodynamics, and some vegetation dynamic variables. The tool is applicable to multiple
scales, sectors and levels of screening but is limited fine/point scale information.
(http://precis.metoffice.com/)
Vulnerability mapping and impact assessment – ILRI, TERI, ACTS, CIAT: This tool utilizes GCM
outputs, agriculture systems and land use data, GIS and vulnerability data and aims to
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
49
provide donors (and in the future, governments and NGOs) with information on key
characteristics in the agriculture sector at the national level. The tool identifies vulnerable
populations and, in the second phase, assesses climate change impacts and costs and
benefits of potential adaptation options. At present the tool is limited to Sub-Saharan Africa
and omits other key non-agricultural impacts. (http://www.dfid.gov.uk/research/mappingclimate.pdf)
SERVIR Climate Change Mapping Tool - USAID, NASA, CATHALAC, IAGT: This web-based tool
is intended to assist users of the USAID Climate Adaptation Guidance Manual to instantly
access climate information needed to adaptation projects. The tool is an open platform
which is applicable to multiple sectors and is available to various users. The current version
focuses on Mesoamerica and is used by Central American disaster planners, TV weather
reporters, cruise ship operators, and resource managers, and others.
(http://www.servir.net/)
Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) – Environment Agency, UK: Although not presented at
the workshop, this tool’s applicability as a quantitative information provider is applicable to
many of the approaches presented at the workshop. This computer-based information tool
is open-source and is aimed at donors, governments and impact assessors. The tool provides
daily, transient, climate risk information for impact assessment over the 1961-2100 time
horizon and has been primarily used for water resource management, though is applicable
to multiple sectors. After calibration of data, the tool provides rapid assessments to assist
impacts and adaptation analysis. (www.sdsm.org.uk)
Climate Analysis Indicators Tool – WRI: A vulnerability and impacts component of CAIT
forms part of this a much wider tool-kit of country-level data on climate change, particularly
on greenhouse gas emissions. The database includes information on historical impacts,
particularly from disaster events, as well as a range of human development indices. CAIT
permits manipulation of this data on a country by country basis, including cross-referencing
to mitigation-related data. (http://cait.wri.org/)
NAPA Platform – UNITAR: The UN’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
platform is aimed at providing informational support to NAPA country teams, implementing
agencies (UNDP, UNEP and World Bank), vulnerability and adaptation experts, and other
partners providing NAPA technical assistance. It aims to facilitate the delivery of technical
assistance to NAPA teams formulating their NAPA documents, particularly with regards to
the synthesis of existing vulnerability and adaptation information, and the formulation of
relevant adaptation projects profiles. It provides multi-sectoral information aimed at the
programme and project level for Least Developed Countries within the NAPA process.
(www.napa-pana.org)
NAPAssess- SEI: As part of SEI’s capacity building efforts around the NAPA for climate
change adaptation, we developed a tool called NAPAssess that facilitates multi-criteria
assessment (MCA) in a stakeholder context. The model helps stakeholders to identify
vulnerable populations and potential adaptation initiatives, and then prioritize initiatives for
meeting the needs of vulnerable communities in the least developed countries. The
experience thus far in the countries of Yemen and Sudan suggests that NAPAssess is able to
contribute to a transparent, user-friendly process for developing, weighting and applying
adaptation project evaluation criteria and it can be helpful for organizing and simplifying the
entire NAPA process. (www.sei-us.org/climate-and-energy/selected-projects.html)
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Climate envelopes/adaptation risk screening platform (CIEAR) – SEI: This open platform is a
work in progress, with the intention to include a collection of software tools (e.g., risk
mapping, MCA), data bases (e.g., criteria, adaptation actions), guidance,
examples/prototypes and communications. It is intended to support analysts who advise a
range of final users in multiple sectors at multiple scales. The risk modules tend to focus on
fairly immediate links between climate episodes and trends and impacts affecting
environmental services, economic activities and livelihoods. The tool platform will be
designed to clarify choices in decision-making and not prescribe perfect solutions to specific
risks. It has adopted a social learning and process approach to adaptation planning and
decision making which incorporates project details, vulnerability data and stakeholder
engagement. (www.sei.se/oxford/)
Other information generation/database tools: Historical data and statistics on natural
disaster occurrence and their impact since 1905 are available from the OFDA/CRED
International Disasters Database (EM-DAT), maintained by the Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). A wide range of historic climate data and near-term
forecasting data are available through meteorological offices and through the WMO.
The UNFCCC Secretariat published a Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts
of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change. The compendium includes
descriptions of broad frameworks and supporting tool kits for assessments, approaches to
incorporate multiple-sectors and cross-cutting issues, as well as numerous sector specific
analysis
tools.
(Available
from
http://unfccc.int/adaptation/nairobi_workprogramme/compendium_on_methods_tools/ite
ms/2674.php)
c) Computer-based decision tools
Computer-based decision tools are primarily intended to assist donors to identify climate
related risks and adaptation options based on project/programme inputs. These tools
typically include social vulnerability information as well as include economic analysis as part
of the decision-making process to assist donors in establishing priorities. These tools are
designed to incorporate various forms of data as well as inputs from various stakeholders.
Whereas CRiSTAL is aimed at project-level decision-making, the SEI platform will be
applicable across scales. The advantage of these models is that they allow programme staff
to navigate the platform with ease and are thus more hands on, relying less on “expert
advice”.
CRiSTAL (Community-based Risk Screening Tool- Adaptation & Livelihoods)– IISD, IUCN, SEI,
Intercooperation: This project-based tool focuses on securing livelihoods through
environmental/natural resource management and is aimed at numerous users. It is
currently being piloted for Nicaragua, Mali, Tanzania and Sri Lanka in sectors such as
agriculture, water resource management, infrastructure, and natural resource management.
The tool requires detailed project inputs and vulnerability data. The tool delivers
vulnerability and livelihood profiles as well as details for project modification. A parallel tool
is being planned which aims to focus on the project portfolio side which would be intended
to help programme managers integrate adaptation concerns into their over project portfolio
at the strategic planning level. (www.iisd.org/security/es/resilience/climate_phase2.asp)
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
51
ADAPT - World Bank: This computer-based tool is multi-sectoral and currently being tested
in South Asia, soon expanding to a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. The tool undertakes a
sensitivity analysis for specific projects and flags activities that are sensitive to climate
change as well as gives advice on adaptation activities. The tool utilizes project location and
activity information which are screened through a project activity sensitivity matrix based
on GCM data. The tool does not utilize specific vulnerability data or adaptation at the
sectoral. ADAPT is not explicitly a decision-making tool and does not address sensitivities at
the programme level. (www.worldbank.org/climatechange ).
Adaptation Wizard – UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP): The Adaptation Wizard is a
web-based tool that is designed to take help users gain a basic understanding of climate
change as well as integrate climate risks into their decision-making. It is a high-level, generic
tool that is valuable to newcomers to the climate change issue, as well as those who are
preparing to adapt. The tool is specifically aimed at the UK context. It is more a decisionsupport than decision-making tool, and plays a valuable awareness-raising and educational
role. The tool does walk users through an economic analysis of adaptation options and
scenarios. (http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/tools/adapt.asp)
Country Database – UNDP-GEF: The country database aims to help UNDP offices to develop
adaptation proposals and improve staff awareness on climate risks for other project design.
It compiles a common set of information for each UNDP partner country, drawn from
National Communications, NAPAs and other scientific studies, together with UNDP country
programme information, on an easy to operate webpage format. (Database restricted to
users of UNDP intranet).
d) Adaptation planning and risk management processes
This section describes adaptation/risk management processes that include tools that have
been developed by specific international aid agencies intended to screen
projects/programmes and/or develop policy priorities. Consequently, they are tailored
toward the specific decision-making processes of the agency. Similar to computer-based
decision tools, they rely on detailed programme/project inputs though they also facilitate
greater stakeholder information. Typically these processes rely on expert advice from their
respective climate change departments or outside consultants. They tend to rely more
heavily on qualitative inputs while also incorporating climate science information. On the
whole, these processes take longer than computer-based decision tools but are more
thorough in their analysis, providing tailored recommendations for disaster risk reduction
and adaptation.
Climate quick scans - DGIS, The Netherlands: This paper/process based tool is aimed at
donors (particularly DGIS) applicable to multiple sectors. This “quick and dirty” process
draws on expert advice to screen programmes/projects in order to establish adaptation
priorities and raise awareness about climate risks with partner countries. The project draws
on various inputs including project/programme details, stakeholder engagement and
varying levels of vulnerability data. (www.nlcap.net)
Preparedness for Climate Change - Red Cross/Red Crescent (RC): This paper/process based
tool is aimed at primarily at local Red Cross/Crescent societies in order to assess key climate
change related risks facing vulnerable people in the country and programs of the national
society. The tools draws on RC project details, national staff and the use of RC vulnerability
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
52
data to set priorities for follow-up i.e. modifications to existing programs, and to strengthen
local capacity in addressing climate-related risks. The tool is primarily aimed at disaster
management, health and the water & sanitation sectors. ( www.climatecentre.org)
Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Manual – USAID: The Guidance Manual is aimed at
USAID country missions to assist in the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in all
projects. The manual is currently being tested in Honduras, South Africa, Mali and Thailand
in different sectors. The manual leads project designers through a series of steps to help
them understand whether their project may be vulnerable to climate variability or change.
The manual encourages stakeholder engagement and provides guidance on where to find
more
information
and
assistance
in
gathering
data.
(http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/policies_prog/vulnerability.html)
Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters (ORCHID) – IDS: This process-based
tool is designed to be a light touch screening process for donor programs. The process
utilizes quantitative inputs climate science which are applied to the risk assessment of
programs usually at wide scales, and using directional trends rather than discrete figures.
The tool utilizes project documents and interviews with project staff as well as past trend in
vulnerability and disaster risk. ORCHID aims to raise awareness of climate risk management
and future climate change among staff, to stimulate dialogue with donor partners, to
integrate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies and activities. The
process makes recommendations for how programs might enhance risk management
through adaptive practices; cost benefit analysis and sector economic assessment are
undertaken for areas where clear adaptation options can be discerned and where sufficient
data is available. (www.ids.ac.uk/climatechange)
Integration of climate risks into country programming – UNDP: This short briefing note
provides guidance to improve the capacity of UNDP country offices to incorporate climate
risks into UNDP country programming. It takes staff through a set of questions to assess
whether climate risk is adequately reflected during the formulation of Common Country
Assessments and UN Development Assistance Frameworks. (UNDP Intranet only)
Guidance notes on tools for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction - ProVention Consortium:
The Provention Consortium has recently published a comprehensive compendium of short
briefing papers on tools and methods for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction. These
approaches have much in common with climate change adaptation, particularly in their
approach to tackling current variability, risk frameworks, and approaches to overcoming
barriers
to
cross-sectoral
work.
(http://www.proventionconsortium.org/?pageid=32&projectid=1
Gender and Disaster Sourcebook- UNISDR: The Gender and Disaster Sourcebook is a
electronic guide to help respond to questions about the link between gender equality and
disaster risk and to understand what lessons have been learned in the field and through
scientific study. The Sourcebook is still a work in progress but it does include tools like the
UNCHA- Gender Equality Tool Kit, a comprehensive stand-alone document on gender
mainstreaming and practical tool for gendering disaster risk management. While not climate
specific, this tool has much in common with climate risk tools could be complementary to
better
integrate
climate,
gender,
and
disaster
risk
management.
(www.gdnonline.org/sourcebook)
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
53
Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) – UNDP: The APF provides
guidance on designing and implementing projects that reduce
vulnerability to climate change, by both reducing potential
negative impacts and enhancing any beneficial consequences
of a changing climate. It seeks to integrate national
policymaking efforts with a “bottom-up” movement, focusing
on the involvement of stakeholders at all stages. The flexible
approach has five steps (listed in diagram at right) that can be
used in different combinations according to the amount of
available information and the point of entry to the project.
The framework is particularly applicable where the
integration of adaptation measures into broader sector specific policies, economic
development, poverty reduction objectives, or other policy domains is desirable.
(http://www.undp.org/gef/adaptation/climate_change/APF.htm; a few technical papers are
included in the resource section)
Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) to
adaptation is a framework that helps in understanding the complexities of poverty and
includes a set of principles to guide action to address and overcome poverty. It offers a way
to improve understanding of the livelihoods of poor people. SLA is used to identify the main
constraints and opportunities faced by poor people, as expressed by themselves.
(http://www.ifad.org/sla/; see articles in the literature section for linkages to climate
change adaptation)
COMPARISON TABLE:
Tool
Audience
Screening
level
Spatial
scale
Training
time
Application
time
Main data
type
Economic
PRECIS (UK Met Office)
all
Input toos
multiscale
varying
varying
Quantitative
No
Vulnerability assessment
(ILRI et al)
donors
policy
national
unknown
2-6 months
Quant.
not at
present
SERVIR (USAID,NASA)
all
various
local,
regional
none
<1 month
Quant
No
SDSM (Environment
Agency)
gov’t,
donors,
other
project
multiscale
half-day
<1 month
Quant
No
CAIT (WRI)
all
programme
national
none
<1 month
Quant
No
NAPA Platform (UNITAR)
gov’t,
donors,
NGOs
project,
programme
multiscale
none
NA
NA
No
CIEAR (SEI)
all
various
multiscale
varying
varying
quant
Yes in
future
CRiSTAL (IISD/IUCN/
SEI/Intercooperation)
all
project
local,
regional
1 hour
<1 month
Qualitative
not at
present
ADAPT (World Bank)
all
project
local,
regional
none
<1 month
Qualitative
No
Adaptation Wizard
(UKCIP)
all
various
multiscale
none
<1 month
Qualitative
not at
present
UNDP Country Database
Country
offices
Project
National
20
minutes
<1 month
Quant and
Qual
No
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
54
Climate Quick Scans
(DGIS)
donors
project,
programme
multiscale
none
<1 month
Qualitative
No
Preparedness for
Climate Change (Red
Cross/Crescent)
NGOs
programme,
policy
National
none
> 6 months
Qualitative
No
Climate Change
Adaptation Guidance
Manual (USAID)
donors
policy,
project
local,
regional
-
2-6 months
Quant and
qual
not at
present
ORCHID (IDS/DFID)
donors,
NGOs
programme
regional,
national
none
2-6 months
Qualitative
yes
CCA/UNDAF Guidance
(UNDP)
Country
offices
programme
national
none
> 6 months
Qualitative
No
e) Climate proofing UNEP projects
Impetus for portfolio screening to support mainstreaming of climate change adaptation has
been reinforced through policy commitments and political declarations. There are specific
adaptation funds to enable mainstreaming, and even though projects implemented with
these funds are likely to provide important foundations and lessons, tackling future climaterelated risks to development requires a more comprehensive approach. Problems with and
limitations of these sources (including the general expectation that specific adaptation funds
are likely to fall magnitudes short of the estimated costs of adaptation) have motivated a
range of donor agencies to conduct screenings of their programme and project portfolios.
Climate proofing offers a systematic examination of UNEP’s programming with the aim of
identifying how climate change concerns can be integrated with existing priorities. The
mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into UNEP’s portfolio can potentially achieve
two things.
First, it can contribute to the climate proofing of existing projects; that is, it can modify
existing projects to ensure that they are no longer at risk from climate change or no longer
contribute to the vulnerability of its recipients. Second, and perhaps more importantly,
mainstreaming can ensure that future projects and strategies are consciously aimed at
reducing vulnerability by including priorities that are critical to successful adaptation, such
as ensuring water rights to groups exposed to water scarcity during drought (Klein et al.,
2007).
f) Looking ahead
The literature included in this section of the sourcebook ranges from descriptions of
conceptual frameworks to examples of other agencies’ checklists for climate-proofing
project portfolios. The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) Technical Papers included in the
section suggest a way of moving forward on thinking about climate change and integrating it
into UNEP programming. Several articles discuss the linkages between climate change
adaptation and the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach, which historically has emphasized
poverty reduction through enhanced understanding of the livelihoods of poor people.
Finally, several existing checklists from other agencies’ climate-screening efforts have been
included to serve as a baseline for the creation of UNEP’s own, ecosystems based
adaptation checklist.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
55
Key literature
1. Downing, T. (2004) Vulnerability in NAPA assessments: Guidance, examples and team
exercises For developing rapid, participatory vulnerability assessments In National
Adaptation Programmes of Action (from vulnerabilitynet.org)
2. Gigli, S. and S. Agrawala (2007). Stocktaking of Progress on Integrating Adaptation to
Climate
Change
into
Development
Co-operation
Activities,
OM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2007)1/FINAL,
OECD,
Paris.
Available
from:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/33/62/39216288.pdf
a.
Executive Summary
b.
Annex 4: OVERVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE PORTFOLIO-SCREENING EFFORTS TO DATE60
c.
Annex 7: DANIDA CLIMATE CHANGE SCREENING NOTE
3. Klein, R.J.T., Eriksen, S.E.H., L.O. Næss, A. Hammill, T.M. Tanner, C. Robledo and K.
O’Brien (2007), “Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to
climate change into development assistance”, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research,
Working
Paper
102,
Stockholm.
Available
from:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/twp102.pdf/
4. Knutsson, P. and Ostwald, M. (2006) A Process-Oriented Sustainable Livelihoods
Approach–A Tool For Increased Understanding of Vulnerability, Adaptation and
Resilience. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
5. IISD. (2003). Increasing Community Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters through
Sustainable Livelihoods A Conceptual Framework for Climate Change Adaptation.
Livelihoods
and
Climate
Change
(Available
from
http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2003/envsec_livelihoods_1.pdfUNDP/GEF. The CommunityBased Adaptation Programme Responding to Climate Change One Community at a Time
(Available from http://sgp.undp.org/downloads/CBA_flyer.pdf)
6. UNDP. Adaptation Policy Framework. Technical Papers:
a. Preface:
b. Scoping and Designing an Adaptation Project *checklist
c. Engaging Stakeholders in the Adaptation Process
d. Formulating an Adaptation Strategy
e. Continuing the Adaptation Process
Comprehensive Bibliography
1. Agrawala, S. (2005), “Putting Climate Change in the Development Mainstream:
Introduction and Framework”, in S. Agrawala (ed.), Bridge Over Troubled Waters: Linking
Climate Change and Development, OECD, Paris.
2. ADB (2005), “Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation”, ADB, Manila.

Key literature is available at the following website:
http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
56
3. Burton, I. and M. van Aalst (2004), “Look Before You Leap: A Risk Management Approach
for Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into World Bank Operations”, World Bank,
Washington
4. DeFries, R. (2005) Chapter 2: Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystems and
Human Well-being in Current State & Trends Assessment of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment,
Available
from:
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.271.aspx.pdf
5. Downing, T. (2004) Vulnerability in NAPA assessments: Guidance, examples and team
exercises For developing rapid, participatory vulnerability assessments In National
Adaptation Programmes of Action (from vulnerabilitynet.org)
6. Elasha, B. et al. (2005) Sustainable livelihood approach for assessing community
resilience to climate change: case studies from Sudan. AIACC Working Paper No.17
(Available
from
http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP_No017.p
df)
7. Gigli, S. and S. Agrawala (2007), Stocktaking of Progress on Integrating Adaptation to
Climate
Change
into
Development
Co-operation
Activities,
OM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2007)1/FINAL,
OECD,
Paris.
Available
from:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/33/62/39216288.pdf
8. IISD. (2003). Increasing Community Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters through
Sustainable Livelihoods A Conceptual Framework for Climate Change Adaptation.
Livelihoods
and
Climate
Change
(Available
from
http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2003/envsec_livelihoods_1.pdf)
9. Klein, R.J.T., Eriksen, S.E.H., L.O. Næss, A. Hammill, T.M. Tanner, C. Robledo and K.
O’Brien (2007), “Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to
climate change into development assistance”, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research,
Working
Paper
102,
Stockholm.
Available
from:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/twp102.pdf/
10. Knutsson, P. and Ostwald, M. (2006) A Process-Oriented Sustainable Livelihoods
Approach–A Tool For Increased Understanding of Vulnerability, Adaptation and
Resilience. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
11. Noble, I. (2005b), “A Screening and Design Tool for Adapting Projects to Climate
Change”,
presentation,
World
Bank,
Washington,
Available
from:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDISMGMT/Resources/noble.pdf.
12. Rothman, D. and Robinson, J. (1996) GROWING PAINS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
FOR CONSIDERING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS. Sustainable Development Research
Institute, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada
13. Shaw, R., Colley, M., and Connell, R., (2007). Ch4: How to implement adaptation through
design and development in Climate change adaptation by design: a guide for sustainable
communities Climate change adaptation by design: A guide for sustainable communities.
TCPA,
London.
Available
from
http://www.tcpa.org.uk/downloads/20070523_CCA_lowres.pdf
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
57
14. Tearfund and IDS (2006) Overcoming the barriers: Mainstreaming climate change
adaptation in developing countries
15. UNDP. Adaptation Policy Framework. Technical Papers:
a. Preface:
b. Scoping and Designing an Adaptation Project *checklist
c. Engaging Stakeholders in the Adaptation Process
d. Formulating an Adaptation Strategy
e. Continuing the Adaptation Process
16. UNDP/GEF. The Community-Based Adaptation Programme Responding to Climate
Change
One
Community
at
a
Time
(Available
from
http://sgp.undp.org/downloads/CBA_flyer.pdf)
17. World Bank guidance booklet to support mainstreaming of adaptation to climate
change in agricultural / natural resources management sector projects (Available from
http://go.worldbank.org/DN594WC0E0)
18. World Bank/GEF (2006) Managing Climate Risk: Integrating Adaptation into World Bank
Group Operations
19. Complete Frameworks and Supporting Toolkits (from UNFCC)
IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP)
UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and
Adaptation Strategies
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions
and Sectors (AIACC)
Guidelines for the preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action
(NAPA)
United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Climate Adaptation: Risk,
Uncertainty and Decision Making
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
58
Part 7: Climate Change Case studies - What case studies are
particularly instructive for integrating adaptation concerns
into UNEP project planning?
Part 7 of this Sourcebook provides an overview of three case studies that may contain
lessons applicable for UNEP programming. As the focus of UNEP’s project programming is
on biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management, case studies were selected that
show how other agencies are beginning to screen similar projects for climate risk. The
example from Ethiopia exemplifies project-level adaptation; the case study from the
Amazon Basin is an example of project formulation at a national/regional level; the case
study on gender focuses on the role of women in India for the rehabilitation of disasteraffected communities.
Overview of key issues and knowledge
a) Introduction
Adaptation to climate change occurs at a range of levels:
i) project, ii) regulation and compliance, iii) short- and
midterm policymaking and planning at sub national
level, and iv) national strategic development planning
(ADB). The case studies chosen demonstrate the
importance of mainstreaming adaptation, including
strengthening an enabling environment for adaptation
to increase the likelihood of successful adaptation at
project and community levels.
b) ETHIOPIA: Greater Boma Park Initiative
The agency involved in the Netherlands Ministry of
Foreign Affair’s Directorate General for International
Cooperation (DGIS). This initiative will create a crossborder nature conservation with biodiversity corridors
connecting it to existing parks in Ethiopia, Sudan and
Kenya. Drought has already negatively impacted Boma
Park’s wildlife and undermined the food security of the
populations living in and around the park. This fact
underscores the importance of integrated climate
concerns in the project design. People are also overly
dependent on the area’s natural resources, which has
lead to unsustainable exploitation of wildlife and other
resources undermining traditional livelihoods and
sustainable development.
Ideally, this initiative would work at the intersection of
ecosystem conservation, human rights protection, and
livelihood enhancement but nearby plans for hydropower development threaten the availability of water resources to the park and local
populations (in addition to climatic induced water stress). Since this project is in its
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
59
inception phase, it is critically important to integrate climate change risk management into
project design.
In determining an approach for integrated climate risks, the team had two main
considerations: 1) the reliance of the poor on environmental services for their livelihoods, 2)
environmental and economic assets as well as capabilities comprise peoples’ livelihoods and
shape vulnerability and ability to reduce it. DGIS’ decision on a tool was guided by the tool’s
ability to adequately address livelihood issues.
DGIS screened for climate risks to the country, project, and external vulnerability risks
affected by the project (potential to reduce community vulnerability to climate shocks) (see
diagram above). DGIS initially classified projects into three categories of risk, high (red),
medium (orange), and low (green). For red and orange projects, a second, more detailed
screening was undertaken using CRISTAL (Community-based Risk Screening ToolAdaptation & Livelihoods).
Plans for biodiversity corridors build adaptive capacity by allowing wildlife to respond to
climate change by moving between parks in search of food and water. The project’s
conservation goals will likely be more affected by the planned hydro-power installations
than by climate change. While climate poses no direct risks to the project, some
components could be affected i.e. the livelihood component. Droughts reduce food security
and result in income loss. Water resources will also likely be affected leaving communities to
cope with water shortages—increasing the risk of illness and child mortality. It is important
that the livelihood component does not induce communities to settle in drought-prone
areas, which would only increase their vulnerability.
Upon initial screening, DGIS classified this project as CATEGORY GREEN (low risk) so the
secondary CRISTAL screening was not needed. If however, the livelihood and human rights
components become as prominent as the conservation component, a second risk
assessment is in order: the susceptibility of the livelihood component to climate risks would
likely make it a CATEGORY ORANGE project and require a CRISTAL screening.
c) Amazon Basin: Adaptation to climate change
The agency involved is UNEP/GEF. The project’s objective is to strengthen, in a coordinated
and coherent manner, the institutional framework for planning and executing activities for
the protection and sustainable management of the water resources of the Amazon River
Basin. Sustainable management of the region presupposes protection and integrated
management of transboundary water resources and adaptation to climatic changes. From
the start, this project is taking climate changes, variability, and risk into consideration in
project design.
The Amazon River Basin occupies the entire central and eastern area of South America with
seasonal rainfall variations resulting from movements in the inter-tropical convergence zone
(ITCZ). Given its expansive drainage system, the Amazon Basin is significantly affected by
ENSO-type climatic variations (those causing a substantial decline in precipitation),
considerably increasing the areas at risk from fire and defoliation. In addition to its
characterization of high biodiversity, Amazon River Basin is also an important source of
natural resources for human economic development supporting a population of roughly 10
million people (a high percentage of which identify as indigenous communities). It contains
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
60
some of the world's largest known reserves of bauxite and industries within the Basin are
some of the largest suppliers of iron and steel to world markets.
The project is proposed to be divided into three four-year phases, the third of which is
intended for strengthening sustainable and integrated water resources management in the
Basin, recognizing the likely impacts forecast to arise as a consequence of ongoing changes
to the global circulation and climatic regimes. However, from its inception, it will make
progress toward the integrated management of land and water resources, incorporating
planning for adaptation to climatic variation and change, through more effective decisionmaking by the relevant national institutions.
Activity 3 is specifically devoted to forecasting the hydrological impacts of climatic variation
and adaptation to change. This Activity will elaborate the scope and Terms of Reference
necessary to develop capacity within the Amazon River Basin to predict with more certainty
(and ultimately respond to) the impacts and consequences of climatic variability and change
on the land and water resources, and on the vulnerable people and ecosystems within the.
The Activity will also initiate a process that is intended to establish close ties with the Centre
for the Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrologic Variability proposed to be created
during Phase II of the GEF la Plata River Basin project.
Components to ensure integration of climate change information:
1. Execution of specialized consultancies to define the conceptual basis and Terms of
Reference for the design and operation of the hydroclimatological forecasting
system.
2. Conduct an international multidisciplinary workshop (including specialists in climate,
hydrology, edaphology, land use, ecology, sociology, etc) to
a.
b.
c.
d.
define the technical basis for the forecasting system to be developed
identify priority geographic areas and at-risk communities and ecosystems
define research capacity, gaps and needs
determine strategic courses of action to be carried out jointly by the Basin
countries.
3. Preparation of a technical proposal and terms of reference for the strengthening of
academic and meteorological institutions in the region.
4. Provision of Joint technical support for the OTCA in identifying joint projects to
facilitate the exchange of scientific information, knowledge, and experiences
d) India: Enabling Women to Play a Lead Role in Disaster-Affected Marginal Communities
The agency involved is the UNISDR. The Tsunami Relief and Rehabilitation Programme was
established response to the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The thrust is on building
women's capacities for effective preparedness and risk reduction through the communitybased disaster preparedness (CBDP) framework. The targeted population is predominantly
the lower strata of the economic and social ladder of fishing and other marginal
communities: a population with little bargaining power that includes men, women, youth
and children of fishing communities, a scheduled caste, scheduled tribes8 and other
marginal communities. Self-help is a key strategy, self-help groups enable and strengthen
self-help principles through capacity enhancement, and linkages and collaboration with
different agencies can boost project quality.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
61
Participation in the CBDP programs has enabled women and men to realistically assess risks
and vulnerabilities with a gender perspective, and vulnerability aspects were built into the
programs. The initiative faced major challenges from tradition, culture and resistance from
men/husbands of the women; however, they were overcome - to a certain extent - through
awareness, capacity enhancement for women and children, sensitizing men and
encouraging equal participation of men and women, and encouraging women' leadership
with a strong focus on concrete results. Replicability of the project is transferable to
community-based disaster preparedness to climate risks (see Allen, 2006).
e) Climate risk assessment, a standard Practice in UNEP project design?
Within the context of a changing and uncertain climate, the assessment of climatic risks of
investment decisions needs to become conventional activity in feasibility studies. Van Aalst
and Bettencourt (2004) argue that it is in the context of an uncertain future that the
challenge of adaptation lies; namely finding an acceptable level of risk and then taking
measures before, the expected impacts occur. In contrast to current development and
conservation planning experience, addressing climate risks from the outset is likely to result
in investment decisions that increase diversification and reduce vulnerability, though at the
cost of potential short-term benefits. The ultimate goal is for UNEP project planning and
climatic risk assessment to be inextricably linked.
A key point to remember is that adaptation to climate change is an ongoing and reiterative
process that includes information development, awareness raising, planning, design,
implementation and monitoring (as illustrated in figure 2 below). Reducing vulnerability
requires having mechanisms in place and technologies, expertise and other resources
available to complete each part of this process (Klein et al., 2005).
f) Looking ahead
Climate proofing means identifying risks to a project, or any other specified natural or
human asset, as a consequence of both current and future climate variability and extremes.
It involves ensuring that those risks are reduced to acceptable levels through long-lasting
and environmentally sound, economically viable, and socially acceptable changes
implemented at one or more of the following stages in the project cycle: planning, design,
construction, operation, and decommissioning.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
62
The emerging significance of adaptation in response to climate change, variability, and
risks—particularly for developing countries—has led UNEP to adopt an outward- and
forwarding-looking approach such that UNEP’s work complements the work of other
institutions. UNEP’s organizational-learning from 2006-2007 also revealed a need for
increased focus on the interlinkages between the environmental pillar of sustainable
development and with the economic and social pillars. The reference articles included in the
following section capture the importance of interlinkages between all three pillars and in
which climate change and variability were integrated into various levels of adaptation
planning. Articles chosen highlight the importance of taking livelihoods, indigenous
knowledge, community-based disaster preparedness, and gendered nature of climate risks
into account in screening existing projects or planning for future interventions that climate
change will influence.
Key literature
1. ADB. Chapter 6- Case Study Two: Climate Proofing the Design of the Breakwater for the
Newly Developed Western Basin, Avatiu Harbor, Rarotonga in Climate Proofing: A Riskbased Approach to
2. ADB. Federated States of Micronesia — Climate Risk Profile and Guidelines for Policy and
Decision Makers and Other Key Players, in Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to
Adaptation
3. Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., 2007:
Cross-chapter case study: Indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change . In:
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 843-868.Available from:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-xccc.pdf
4. van Aalst et al. (2007) Executive Summary. Poverty Reduction at Risk: managing the
impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation activities.
5. van Aalst, M. and Bettencourt, S. (2004)Vulnerability and Adaptation in Pacific Island
Countries in An Adaptation Mosaic: A sample of emerging World Bank work in climate
change adaptation (p15)
6. Thomas, D. et al. (2007) Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses
to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa Climatic Change (83) 1573-1480
7. Dube, P. et al. (2008) Indigenous knowledge, institutions, and practices for coping with
variable climate in the Limpop basin of Botswana in Climate Change and Adaptation.
Leary et al. (eds) 71-89
8. UNISDR (2007) Enabling Women to Play a Lead Role in Disaster – Affected Marginal
Communities in Gender Perspective: Working Together for Disaster Risk Reduction Good
Practices
and
Lessons
Learned.
Available
from:
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900SID/EMAE-76XQV6/$FILE/isdrgender%20good%20practices-2007.pdf?OpenElement

Key literature is available at the following website:
http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/Focus_area/Vulnerability_adaptation_actvities.asp
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
63
9. Katrina M. Allen (2006) Community-based disaster preparedness and climate
adaptation: local capacity-building in the Philippines Disasters 30 (1) , 81–101
doi:10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00308.x
Comprehensive Bibliography
1. van Aalst et al. (2007) Executive Summary. Poverty Reduction at Risk: managing the
impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation activities.
2. van Aalst, M. and Bettencourt, S. (2004)Vulnerability and Adaptation in Pacific Island
Countries in An Adaptation Mosaic: A sample of emerging World Bank work in climate
change adaptation (p15)
3. ADB. Federated States of Micronesia — Climate Risk Profile from Climate Proofing: A
Risk-based Approach to Adaptation
4. Adejuwon, J. et al. (2008) Using seasonal weather forecasts for adapting food production
to climate variability and climate change in Nigeria in Climate Change and Adaptation
Leary et al. (eds) 163-180
5. Burton, I. and M. van Aalst (2004), “Look Before You Leap: A Risk Management Approach
for Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into World Bank Operations”, World Bank,
Washington
6. Chinvanno, S., et al. (2008) Strategies for managing climate risks in the lower Mekong
river basin: A place-based approach in Climate Change and Adaptation. Leary et al. (eds)
228-246
7. DGIS Case studies in climate risk screening
a. Dougherty, B. and Crick, F. (2007) Poverty Reduction at Risk in Ethiopia.
b. Koudstall, R. and Ahmed, A.(2007) Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bangladesh:
An Assessment of the impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation
activities
c. Iwanciw, J. and Suarez, P. (2007) Poverty Reduction at Risk in Bolivia: An
Assessment of the impacts of climate change on poverty alleviation activities
8. FAO. (2006) Livelihood adaptation to climate variability and change in drought-prone
areas
of
Bangladesh.
Available
from:
http://www.fao.org/clim/docs/CDROM/docs/Natural%20resources%20and%20environ
ment/a0820e.pdf.
9. Gagnon-Lebrun, F. and S. Agrawala (2006), Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in
Developed Countries: An Analysis of Broad Trends, ENV/EPOC/GSP(2006)1/FINAL, OECD,
Paris. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/49/18/37178873.pdf)
10. OCED (2003) Development and Climate Change in Fiji: Focus on Coastal Mangroves
11. OCED (2003) Development and Climate Change in Nepal: Focus on Water Resources and
Hydropower .
12. Osman-Elasba, B. et al. (2008) Community development and coping with drought in rural
Sudan in Climate Change and Adaptation. Leary et al. (eds) 90-108
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
64
13. Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., 2007:
Cross-chapter case study: Indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change . In:
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 843-868.Available from:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-xccc.pdf
14. Secretariat of the International Conference on Freshwater (2001) FLOODS AND
DROUGHTS: COPING WIITH VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE (http://www.water2001.de/co_doc/Floods.pdf
d. The Sahel drought
e. Flooding in Bangladesh
f. Odra / Oder flood of 1997
g. Southern Africa / Mozambique flood of 2000
h. Droughts in Northeast Brazil
i. Flood protection in Japan (based on Kundzewicz & Takeuchi, 1999)
j. Sustainable development context (after Kundzewicz, 1999)
k. WADI: An example of integrated research in support of Integrated Water
Resources Management (IWRM) and Comprehensive Disaster Risk
Management (CDRM)
15. Sperling, F. (ed.), 2003. Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the
Poor through Adaptation. Inter-agency report
16. UNFCCC Local coping strategies database (http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/)
l.
Community-based adaptation can greatly benefit from knowledge of local
coping strategies; the facilitates the transfer of long-standing coping
strategies and knowledge from communities which have adapted to specific
hazards or climatic conditions, to communities which may just be starting to
experience such conditions as a result of climate change.
17. UNISDR (2007) Gender Perspective: Working Together for Disaster Risk Reduction Good
Practices
and
Lessons
Learned.
Available
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900SID/EMAE-76XQV6/$FILE/isdrgender%20good%20practices-2007.pdf?OpenElement
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
from:
65
Part 8. Other Resources
Glossary
The information provided below was compiled from a variety of published sources. For
concepts not listed in the topics below, readers may wish to consult the glossary included in
the Appendix I of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report which is available from
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-app.pdf. Another good source
is UNEP’s report entitled, Global Environment Outlook: Environment for development. This
report
is
available
from
the
following
website:
http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/Glossary.pdf.
Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and
planned adaptation:

Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of
climate change are observed therefore avoiding higher costs than would
otherwise be incurred and damages to the economy. Also referred to as
proactive adaptation.

Autonomous adaptation – Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious
response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural
systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Also referred
to as spontaneous adaptation.

Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy
decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about
to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a
desired state. (IPCC, 2007)
Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate
variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of
opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. (Source: IPCC)

Adaptive capacity in ecological systems is related to genetic diversity,
biological diversity, and the heterogeneity of landscape mosaics (Carpenter et
al. 2001a, Peterson et al. 1998, Bengtsson et al. 2002).

In social systems, the existence of institutions and networks that learn and
store knowledge and experience, create flexibility in problem solving and
balance power among interest groups play an important role in adaptive
capacity
(Scheffer
et
al.
2000,
Berkes
et
al.
2002).
[from www.resalliance.org/565.php]
Adaptive Management: Adaptive management seeks to aggressively use management
intervention as a tool to strategically probe the functioning of an ecosystem. Interventions
are designed to test key hypotheses about the functioning of the ecosystem. This approach
is very different from a typical management approach of 'informed trial-and-error' which
uses the best available knowledge to generate a risk-averse, 'best guess' management
strategy, which is then changed as new information modifies the 'best guess'. Adaptive
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
66
management identifies uncertainties, and then establishes methodologies to test
hypotheses concerning those uncertainties. It uses management as a tool not only to
change the system, but as a tool to learn about the system. It is concerned with the need to
learn and the cost of ignorance, while traditional management is focused on the need to
preserve and the cost of knowledge. (www.resalliance.org/565.php)
Biodiversity: The total diversity of all organisms and ecosystems at various spatial scales
(from genes to entire biomes).
Climate change: Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the
mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically
decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external
forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in
land use (IPCC, 2001). Note, however, that the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods”. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between “climate change” attributable
to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability”
attributable to natural causes.
Climate hazards: Climatic hazards are threats to a system, comprised of perturbations and
stress (and stressors), and the consequences they produce. A perturbation could be a major
spike in pressure (e.g., a tidal wave or hurricane) beyond the normal range of variability in
which the system operates. Perturbations commonly originate beyond the system or
location in question. Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future
threats and can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Each
hazard is characterized by its location, intensity, frequency and probability.
Climate Model: commonly thought of as a numerical or mathematical representation of
the physical, chemical and biological properties (atmosphere, ocean, ice and land
surface) of a climatic system, which incorporates scenarios (coherent internally
consistent and plausible descriptions of a possible forthcoming states of the world;
Carter et al, 1994) allowing for the generation of future predictions (Santer et al.,
1990).
Climate variability: Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other
statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all
temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due
to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations
in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) (IPCC, 2001).
Climate threshold: The point at which external forcing of the climate system, such as the
increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, triggers a significant climatic or
environmental event which is considered unalterable, or recoverable only on very long timescales, such as widespread bleaching of corals or a collapse of oceanic circulation systems
(IPCC 4AR).
Coping range: The variation in climatic stimuli that a system can absorb without producing
significant impacts (IPCC, 2001). (Coping is used for short-term (or reactive) adjustments
while adapting for long term (or proactive) ones.)
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Climate change scenarios: coherent and internally-consistent descriptions of future climate
given certain assumptions about the growth of the emissions of greenhouse gases and
about other factors that may influence climate in the future. The uncertainties associated
with the modelling of future climate scenarios have been divided by the Hadley Centre into
three broad categories: (i) emissions uncertainty; (ii) natural climatic variability; and (iii)
modelling uncertainty (UKCIP).
Climate Impact Assessment: the practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and
beneficial consequences of climate change on natural and human systems (Source: IPCC WG
II).
Downscaling: A method that derives local- to regional-scale (10 to 100 km) information
from larger-scale models or data analyses. (IPCC 4AR)
El Niño - disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important
consequences for weather and climate around the globe. (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/ ,
see ENSO effect)
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) effect: The term ``El Niño'' originally applied to an
annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of Peru and Ecuador
about Christmas-time (hence Niño, Spanish for ``the boy Christ-child'') and only
subsequently became associated with the unusually large warmings that occur every few
years and change the local and regional ecology. The coastal warming, however, is often
associated with a much more extensive anomalous ocean warming to the International
dateline and it is this Pacific basinwide phenomenon that forms the link with the anomalous
global climate patterns. The atmospheric component tied to ``El Niño'' is termed the
``Southern Oscillation''. Scientists often call the phenomenon where the atmosphere and
ocean collaborate together ENSO, short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. El Niño then
corresponds to the warm phase of ENSO. The opposite ``La Niña'' (``the girl'' in Spanish)
phase consists of a basinwide cooling of the tropical Pacific and thus the cold phase of
ENSO. However, for the public, the term for the whole phenomenon is ``El Niño". (National
Center
for
Atmospheric
Research,
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/clivar97/en.dfn.html)
General circulation mode (GCMs): These models analyze climate events by dividing the
surface of the Earth into a grid composed of three-dimensional cells that measure a few
degrees of latitude and longitude per side but the basic unit is roughly the size of a small
country such as Belgium, making regional projections difficult. These models are more
useful on a global scale. Global climate models are the only tools currently available to us for
simulating the complex set of processes that determine climate at global and regional levels.
It is important to remember that they represent our current understanding of how the
climate system works. (UKCIP)
HadCM2: United Kingdom Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research climate model
(HadCM2) simulates the global climate from 1860 to 1990 and then to estimate the global
climate change for the period 1990 to 2099. The Hadley climate change experiment includes
the effects of both atmospheric greenhouse gases (which increase global surface
temperatures) and sulfate aerosols (which reduce temperatures in regions with high aerosol
loading). In this experiment, the carbon dioxide (CO2) content of the atmosphere is
increased by 1 percent per year over the 1990 values.
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Impacts of climate change: The effects of climate change on natural and human systems.
Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one can distinguish between potential
impacts and residual impacts:

Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given a projected change in
climate, without considering adaptation.

Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change that would occur after
adaptation. See also aggregate impacts, market impacts, and non-market
impacts.
Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ): area of low pressure that forms where the
Northeast Trade Winds meet the Southeast Trade Winds near the earth's equator. As these
winds converge, moist air is forced upward producing high cloudiness, frequent
thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall yielding wet and dry seasons. The movement of the ITCZ
is also important for bringing rain to southern Africa and the Sahel region of western Africa.
These areas, which have only one rainfall season, are particularly vulnerable to the changes
that can occur in the movement of the ITCZ. In years when the ITCZ does not migrate as far
south as usual, droughts can occur. (read more on relationship between climate and ITCZ at
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7018/full/432684a.html)
Integrated water resources management (IWRM): The prevailing concept for water
management which, however, has not been defined unambiguously. IWRM is based on four
principles that were formulated by the International Conference onWater and the
Environment in Dublin, 1992: (1) fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to
sustain life, development and the environment; (2) water development and management
should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy-makers at
all levels; (3) women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of
water; (4) water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognised
as an economic good. (IPCC 4AR)
Maladaptation: actions taken which tend to increase vulnerability to climate change,
contrary to original intent.
Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of
greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2007)
No-regrets adaptation measures: fail-safe adaptation options whose benefits, such as
reduced energy costs and reduced emissions of local/regional pollutants equal or exceed
their cost to society, excluding the benefits of climate change mitigation. They are
sometimes knows as "measures worth doing anyway". For example an infrastructure noregret option would increase the durability and longevity of a building to climate variability
over time. (IPCC SAR). http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/2nd-assessmentsynthesis.pdf
No regrets policy: A policy that would generate net social and/or economic benefits
irrespective of whether or not anthropogenic climate change occurs. (IPCC 4AR)
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): The NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) consists of opposing
variations of barometric pressure near Iceland and near the Azores. It is the dominant mode
of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region. (IPCC 4AR)
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69
Radiative forcing: The IPCC defines this term as an externally imposed perturbation in the
radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate system. Such a perturbation can be brought
about by secular changes in the concentrations of radiatively active species (e.g., CO2,
aerosols), changes in the solar irradiance incident upon the planet.
Resilience: the ability to absorb disturbances, to be changed and then to re-organise and
still have the same identity (retain the same basic structure and ways of functioning). It
includes the ability to learn from the disturbance. A resilient system is forgiving of external
shocks. As resilience declines the magnitude of a shock from which it cannot recover gets
smaller and smaller. Resilience shifts attention from purely growth and efficiency to needed
recovery and flexibility. Growth and efficiency alone can often lead ecological systems,
businesses and societies into fragile rigidities, exposing them to turbulent transformation.
Learning, recovery and flexibility open eyes to novelty and new worlds of opportunity.
(Resilience Alliance, http://www.resalliance.org/564.php)
Risk: The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries,
property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from
interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions (UNISDR
terminology).
Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation: Risk = Hazards x
Vulnerability. Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to
the physical aspects of vulnerability (UNISDR).
Sea-level rise: An increase in the mean level of the ocean.

Eustatic sea-level rise is a change in global average sea level brought about by
an increase in the volume of the world ocean.

Relative sea-level rise occurs where there is a local increase in the level of the
ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or land level
subsidence. In areas subject to rapid land-level uplift, relative sea level can
fall. (IPCC 4AR)
Sensitivity: Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or
beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop
yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect
(e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level
rise). (IPCC 4AR)
SRES: The storylines and associated population, GDP and emissions scenarios associated
with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakićenović et al., 2000), and the
resulting climate change and sea-level rise scenarios. Four families of socio-economic
scenario (A1, A2, B1 and B2) represent different world futures in two distinct dimensions: a
focus on economic versus environmental concerns, and global versus regional development
patterns (IPCC 4AR).
System: A population or ecosystem; or a grouping of natural resources, species,
infrastructure, or other assets. (pewclimate.org)
Thermal expansion: In connection with sea-level rise, this refers to the increase in volume
(and decrease in density) that results from warming water. A warming of the ocean leads to
an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sea level. (IPCC 4AR)
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Thermohaline circulation (THC): Large-scale, density-driven circulation in the ocean, caused
by differences in temperature and salinity. In the NorthAtlantic, the thermohaline
circulation consists of warm surface water flowing northward and cold deepwater flowing
southward, resulting in a net poleward transport of heat. The surface water sinks in highly
restricted regions located in high latitudes. Also called meridional overturning circulation
(MOC). (IPCC 4AR)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The Convention was
adopted on 9 May 1992, in New York, and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
by more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the
‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. It contains
commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I aim to return
greenhouse gas emissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the
year 2000. The Convention entered in force in March 1994 (IPCC 4AR).
Vulnerability: Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to
cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and
variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 4AR).
Win-Win Adaptation Options: include green roofs (that decrease the energy consumption,
storm water runoff, air pollution and could help reduce the urban heat Options island),
water conservation programs, (which aid in decreasing seasonal water shortages and the
effects of drought) and the implementation of renewable energy (that are beneficial for the
environment and can provide energy during grid power outages and storms).
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Organizations working on adaptation
Organization
Description
Contact Info/Website
Albaeco
Albaeco spreads easy-to-grasp information on how
human societies depend on functioning ecosystems,
and how societies influence the capacity of the
ecosystems to sustain human well-being. The
information is available for practical use by policymakers, businesses, schools, media and the general
public.
http://albaeco.com/englis
h/
Climate Adaptation Science and Policy
Initiative (CASPI)
research network at the University of Melbourne
http://www.caspi.unimelb
.edu.au/index.php
Drylands Programme of
the International
Institute for
Environment and
Development (IIED)
IIED is an independent, non-profit organization
promoting sustainable patterns of world development
through collaborative research, policy studies,
networking and knowledge dissemination.
www.iied.org
Stockholm Environment
Institute
An international environmental NGO with offices in
seven countries. SEI is in process of setting up a
Collaborating Centre for Climate Adaptation with
UNEP.
http://www.sei.se
Stockholm Resilience
Center
new international centre that advances
transdisciplinary research for governance of socialecological systems with a special emphasis on
resilience - the ability to deal with change and
continue to develop.
http://www.stockholmresi
lience.org/
UK Climate Impacts
Program
helps organizations assess how they might be affected
by climate change, so they can prepare for its impact.
Have numerous publications for download
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/r
esources/publications/
UN ISDR (International
Strategy for Disaster
Reduction )
http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climatechange/rd-cch-infolink7-06-eng.htm - CC+DR Infolink:
Newsletter produced by UN ISDR on climate change
and disaster risk reduction
http://www.unisdr.org/
Red Cross/ Red
Crescent Centre on
Climate Change and
Disaster Preparedness
The Climate Centre supports National Red Cross and
Red Crescent Societies to eventually reduce the loss of
life and the damage done to the livelihoods of people
affected by the impacts of climate change and extreme
weather events.
http://www.climatecentre
.org/index.php?page=1&lg
=
The following are listed on WeADAPT as Centers for Climate Adaptation
AWhere Inc.
A spatial information and visualisation company that
provides user-friendly software to use in exercises
such as vulnerability mapping. AWhere provide the
AWhere Spatial Information System to the weADAPT
users (at a discount for developing countries), led
development of the Climate Change Explorer tool, and
provide a global server of climate data (through AWIS).
http://www.awhere.com
BCAS- BANGLADESH
CENTRE FOR
ADVANCED STUDIES
An independent, research, implementation and policy
institute for sustainable development; involved and
lead climate change related country studies in
http://www.bcas.net/Divis
ions/Division_Index.html
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72
association other national level organizations
CIFOR- Center for
International Forestry
Research
livelihoods and resource management
http://www.cifor.cgiar.org
/
ENDA Tiers-Monde
International organisation with diplomatic status
based in Dakar, Senegal, with a network of
decentralised nodes worldwide. ENDA lead work on
training, risk communication, and mainstreaming,
among many other areas.
http://www.enda.sn
FAO
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is
world reknowned for their work on agricultural
development
www.fao.org
IIED- International
Institute for
Environment and
Development
Community Based Adaptation Exchange (CBA-X) is a
new shared online resource designed to bring together
and grow the CBA community. CBA-X provides a site
of exchange for up-to-date and relevant information
about community-based adaptation. www.cbaexchange.org
http://www.iied.org/CC/in
dex.html
OSS- The Sahara and
Sahel Observatory
An independent international organisation based in
Tunis, Tunisia, acting as a north-south-south
partnership platform. Its ACCCA project (Adaptation to
climate change and variability) supported rural
communities in assessing vulnerability.
http://www.ossonline.org/index.php?opti
on=com_content&task=vi
ew&id=254&Itemid=409
START
The global change System for Analysis, Research and
Training enables research on global environmental
change through a networ k of collaborating centres
and partners in Africa, Asia and Oceania. START
centres have a specific role in climate and impact
science, technical support and training.
www.start.org
UNITAR
The UN Institute for Training and Research supports
training in international affairs management and
capacity building in economic and social development,
including climate change. UNITAR coordinates several
projects that the Centres are involved in, notably
ACCCA, C3D and NAPA support workshops.
www.unitar.org
University of Cape
Town (UCT)
University working on all aspects of climate change.
UCT leads development of climate scenarios and the
use of climate data in adaptation planning.
WWF
WWF helps communities and conservation areas adapt
to a changing climate. Actions such as restoring
damaged forests, wetlands, and other habitats
increase their resilience, help protect nature, and
generate income for local people.
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
www.csag.uct.ac.za
www.erc.uct.ac.za
http://www.panda.org/ab
out_wwf/what_we_do/cli
mate_change/solutions/b
uilding_resilience/index.cf
m
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Useful websites
Assessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate
Change (AIACC)
http://www.aiaccproject.org/ - global initiative developed in
collaboration with the UNEP/WMO Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) to advance scientific understanding of
climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options in developing
countries.
Climate Adaptation:
Understanding how to
respond sustainably to
environmental change
http://www.climate-adaptation.info/ (Lisa Schipper’s (of IISD)
website on adaptation in the context of development; follows the
theoretical discussion about adaptation, vulnerability, resilience,
risk, and disasters
Climate Change and
Agriculture Library
http://www.ceepa.co.za/climate_change/library.html
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND
PREDICTABILITY (CLIVAR), a
WCRP project
http://www.clivar.org/
Community Resilience to
Extreme Weather' (CREW)
wiki
http://www.extreme-weather-impacts.net
Ecology and Society
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/ (jJournal of integrative science
for resilience and sustainability)
ELDIS Resource Guides and
Dossiers
http://www.linkingclimateadaptation.org/ - database of
development, policy, practice and research papers, including a
searchable dataset of organizations working on climate adaptation
http://www.cba-exchange.org/- also housed at ELDIS, Community
based adaptation exchange
Early Warning and Monitoring
System
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/
Gender and Disaster Network
http://www.gdnonline.org/ ; includes a sourcebook on the issue
Health Library for Disasters
http://www.helid.desastres.net/
Integrated Water Resource
Management (IWRM)
http://www.iwrm.org/ - basic knowledge and updates in Integrated
Water and Resources Management (IWRM) principles/practices
Organizations related to
drought and drought research
http://www.icrisat.org/vasat/droughtweb/organization.htm
Resilience Alliance
http://www.resalliance.org/1.php ; plus their blog
http://rs.resalliance.org
UNDP Adaptation Learning
Mechanism
http://www.adaptationlearning.net - three-year ALM project
launched in late 2007 that seeks to develop tools and resources to
support: 1. Adaptation practices 2. Integration of climate change
risks and adaptation into policy, planning and operations 3.
Capacity building
UNFCCC information portal on
adaptation
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
http://unfccc.int/adaptation/items/4159.php and
Including a local coping strategies database:
http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/
74
UNFCCC Nairobi work
programme
http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation_planning/ - Database
of submissions on adaptation planning and practices under the
Nairobi work programme
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Resource Group
http://www.climatevarg.org/
Vulnerability Net
http://www.vulnerabilitynet.org
WeAdapt
http://weadapt.org/ (SEI wiki focusing on adaptation
collaboration)
World Bank PovertyNet
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTPOVERT
Y/0,,menuPK:336998~pagePK:149018~piPK:149093~theSitePK:336
992,00.html
World Climate Research
Program of the WMO
http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/wcrp/
UNEP Adaptation Sourcebook
(source of bilateral and multi-lateral agency knowledge exchange)
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