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FIRST STEPS TOWARDS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT AT THE GLOBAL SCALE Rita Van Dingenen, John van Aardenne, Frank Dentener, Frank Raes, *Antonio Soria, *Laszlo Szabor, *Peter Russ European Commission, JRC-IES Ispra (I), *JRC-IPTS Seville (E) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Rationale • Mission of JRC: provide scientifically-sound support for conception, development, monitoring, … of policies at EU level. • Local and short term co-benefits for non-annex 1 countries issue in climate negotiations • Kyoto flexible mechanisms: implications location of emission reductions (Climate forcing/AQ)? • Hemispheric transport of pollution • Increasing contribution ship/aviation emissions • Difference with NEC-GP: Climate Change included TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Background • JRC has developed home-expertise in – global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) – emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) – economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) • Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) – IIASA (emission scenarios) – Hadley Center (meteo fields) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 TM5 •Global Chemical Transport Model •Emissions: EDGAR/RAINS •Meteo: ECMWF fields (3 hourly) •Base resolution 6°x9° •2 step 2-way nested to 1°x1° over selected regions Krol et al., 2005 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 5, pp 417-432 TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Background • JRC has developed home-expertise in – global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) – emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) – economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) • Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) – IIASA (emission scenarios) – Hadley Center (meteo fields) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) RIVM (NL) TNO (NL) MPI (D) JRC (EU) Emissions air pollutants and GHG 1970-2000 on 1x1 grid by country by region Emissions by sector, country F10 emissions of NO2 (Unit: Tg NO2) CH4 in 2000 (320 Tg) 14000 12000 10000 8000 Energy 6000 Industry 4000 Waste Agriculture Biomass burning TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 2001 Time series of emissions year 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 0 1971 2000 Background • JRC has developed home-expertise in – global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) – emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) – economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) • Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) – IIASA (emission scenarios) – Hadley Center (meteo fields) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 The POLES Model • Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems • Global sectoral model of world energy system. • Output: – Long-term (2030, 2050) world energy outlooks (47 countries/regions) – CO2 emission marginal abatement cost curves by region; emission trading system analysis – Technology improvement scenarios TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Background • JRC has developed home-expertise in – global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5) – emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl) – economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville) • Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model) – IIASA (emission scenarios) – Hadley Center (meteo fields) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Ecosystems Climate change Climate ECHAM model Impacts Outdoor air pollution GHG concentrations Atmospheric TM5 chem. + transp. CO, NH3, NOx, PM, SO2, VOC, etc emissions CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC, HFC, etc emissions Emission EDGAR inventory RAINS Energy use Industrial production Solvent use Waste Agriculture Land use /Forestry Unmanaged biosphere Economy POLES model Socio-economic change TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Biogenic change Natural response Human (Policy) response Human health Very first results and developments • Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants – EDGAR-POLES collaboration • Global estimate of agricultural losses due to Ozone TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Collaboration EDGAR-POLES. EDGAR POLES 1970 2000 2030 2050 Methodology: Aggregate EDGAR fuel, sector, country detail to POLES level for Yr 2000 Transfer EDGAR (aggregated) EF to POLES Include abatement in EF TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Collaboration EDGAR-POLES. Emissioni , j (t ) AC k ,l (t ) x EFj ,k ,l ,m (t ) j , k ,l i: compound j: country k: sector l: process by fuel/technology m:abatement techn. t: time (year) AC: activity data EF:emission factor (no explicit abatement technology specified but application of technology included in emission factor for each year) AC: 2000-2050 from POLES EF: 2000-2050 from EDGARv32FT2000 Interface developed to match: j: 47 POLES regions with 240 EDGAR countries k,l : differences in fuel and sector detail (e.g. Power plants POLES vs public electricity, autoproduction, combined heat). TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (preliminary results) 13000 900 12500 800 12000 3000 2500 11500 2000 11000 1500 10500 1000 10000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 NOx 2020 2025 2030 NMVOC 2035 2040 2045 1000 600 500 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 0 0 1995 2050 SO2 1200 700 100 9500 1995 1400 Gg CO 2 3500 Gg CO Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2) 4000 Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2) 4500 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 CH4 CO 2025 2030 2035 2040 N2O 2045 2050 CO2 600 1200 500 1000 400 800 300 600 200 400 100 200 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 NOx 2015 NMVOC 2020 2025 2030 SO2 2035 2040 2045 2050 CO 60 800 700 50 600 40 500 30 400 300 20 200 10 100 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 CH4 2015 2020 N2O 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 CO2 USA: residential combustion TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 More info: John van Aardenne, JRC-IES 2050 Gg CO 2 1400 Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2) 700 Gg CO Gg (NMVOC, NO 2, SO 2) China: residential combustion IPCC4 Experiment II: 2030 Photocomp Scenarios/simulation S1-S5 Sim. ID emissions Meteo Description S1 IIASA-CLE-2000 2000 Baseline S1c IIASA-CLE-2000 1990s Baseline for climatological period S2 IIASA-CLE-2030 2000 IIASA current legislation S2c IIASA-CLE-2030 1990s IIASA current legislation for climatological period S3 IIASA-MFR-2030 2000 IIASA MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction optimistic technology scenario) S4 A2-2030 2000 SRES A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario), harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000 S4s A2-2030 2000 SRES A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions S5c IIASA-CLE-2030 2020s Climate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for the 2020s. TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 TM5 Year 2000 averaged surface ozone Change in surface ozone 2000 – 2030 (CLE) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 First application: Economic evaluation of crop losses (2000) due to O3 damage Approach of Wang and Mauzerall (2004), but on global scale • Calculcate global 1°x1°AQ index (based on 1 hourly surface ozone concentration). AQ index: M7, W126 (for comparison with W&M) • Average grids over country, weighing according to crop suitability index SI: IIASA-FAO, alternatively: GLC2000 AQav = S(AQ*SI)/S(SI) • Apply for each country exposure-yield relationship = national Relative Yield Loss (RYL) • Crop Production Loss (CPL) = actual production * RYL/(1-RYL) Production data from FAO • Economic cost = Local Market Price * CPL TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Suitability index for crop cultivation (FAO/IIASA GAEZ project) WHEAT MAIZE RICE TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 SOYBEANS M$ 50000 20000 10000 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 20 10 5 2 1 TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Agricultural production losses - Due to climate change (2080, A2 scenario): all crops + lifestock (G. Fischer, IIASA) - Due to ozone (2030, CLE), 4 crops (this work) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% N-America Eur+Russia East Asia S Asia Sub-Sah. Africa TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Latin Amer. World Outlook • Truly AP-CC integrated approach • Scenario and emission database development (EDGAR-POLES, EDGAR-RAINS) • Impact assessment and CBA Vegetation O3 flux for crops and forest trees according to ICP Modelling&Mapping recommendations for large scale IAM (generic stomatal flux, no effect of drought) Human health O3 and PM • Sector-based climate change study (EDGAR – ECHAM) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Climate+ soil + terrain constraints for agriculture, crop distribution IIASA soil, terrain database ECHAM Climate-Chem model Meteo GHG AP O3 fields and AQ indices EDGAR RAINS POLES emission scenario energy & technology scenario POLES, IIASA TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Crop production model (Basic Linked System) production trade demand Development of future emission inventories EDGAR (2000) POLES EDGAR Activity data (sector, fuel, technology) Energy market POLES Activity data (sector, fuel, technology) POLES EF (s,f,t) Air pollution emission inventory (Current, future) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 2000 Aggregated EDGAR Activity EF (s,f,t) Air pollution emission inventory (2000) Increased human O3 exposure 2000 – 2030 TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Wheat sensitivity to O3 damage TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 Projected anthropogenic emissions NOx (Tg NO2 y-1) SRES A2 SRES B2 IIASA CLE CLE Asia + Oceania CLE N America IIASA MRF CLE Europe + Russia 1990 TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 2000 2010 2020 2030 Exposure-Yield parametrisations: Wheat Corn Soybean Relative Yield (%) 100% From open-top chamber experiments in Europe and US 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 20 40 60 80 W126 (ppmh) Rice M7 Relative Yield (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 0 20 40 M7 (ppbV) TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006 60 80 4 crops loss year 2000 (M$) fraction of GDP(2000) (India) (5045.89) (1.10%) China 2577.31 0.24% Japan 2170.63 0.05% Iran 975.53 0.96% Pakistan 706.05 1.16% Turkey 702.30 0.35% USA 577.80 0.01% Brazil 314.40 0.05% Italy 296.76 0.03% Country TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006