Download Evaluating societal impacts related to air quality and climate

Evaluating Societal Impacts Related to Air
Quality and Climate
Drew Shindell
Nicholas School of the Environment
Duke University
Thanks to many colleagues, especially Greg Faluvegi & Yunha Lee
How to decide what is best to do where?
Comparing impacts & robustness
Pollutant
Climate Damages
Health Damages
Ag Damages
CO2
Very large (certain)
None
Medium
SO2
Opposite (global)
Very large
Opposite*
HFCs
Large (very likely)
None
Very Large
Methane
Large (certain)
Medium
Large
BC+
Moderate and/or
large uncertainty
Very large
Very Large
Avoiding Pitfalls
Lock in new CO2intenstive capital
stock
Reduce SO2 and NOx
(both with net
cooling effects)
Currently...
To get the most out of labour, capital, and other resources,
countires need to allocate them efficiently across different sectors
of the economy, and to achieve this, product prices need to reflect
not only the cost of supplying those products, but also any
environmental costs of using them. We think prices paid by users of
energy, or energy-related products, need to reflect the full range of
environmental costs (air pollution, road traffic congestion…), not
just global warming.
International Monetary Fund Director Christine Lagarde, 2015
Currently...
Obama Administration executive order for all federal agencies to
include Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) analysis: “intended to include
(but not limited to) changes in net agricultural productivity, human
health, property damages from increased flood risk, and the value
of ecosystem services due to climate change.”
EU has the Emissions Trading System
All impacts assumed proportional to global mean annual average
radiative forcing or temperature change
Air Quality falls under a variety of rules, costs typically analyzed for
major legislation
Valuing Emissions:
Social Cost of Atmospheric Release (SCAR)
Develop a broader Social Cost that includes impacts on human
health, agriculture, etc. via climate & air quality;
includes all the key pollutants causing both problems
Model response to emissions of one pollutant at a time
Climate impacts of pollutants other than carbon dioxide
Same valuation methodology for air quality and climate
(similar work for methane/ozone/health in Sarofim, Waldhoff & Anenberg, Environ. Res. Econ., 2015)
Shindell, Climatic Change, 2015
Valuing Clean Air
Generation costs from US Energy Information Administration, 2012
Policy Benefits: US
Clean Energy & Transportation Consistent with 2°C
Shindell et al., Nature Climate Change, 2016
Policy Benefits: US
Clean Energy: Avoids ~175,000 premature deaths by 2030 (-50%/+450%; ~80% PM2.5, 20% O3)
Clean Transportation: ~120,000 lives by 2030 (-36%/+360%; ~66% PM2.5, 33% O3)
Policy Benefits: US
2500
Va
lua
ti
on ofBenef
it (
B$p
er y
r)
2250
2000
1750
Energy
Transport
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
Compositionhealth only
(5%)
(3%)
(1.4%)
SCARcalculations (discount rate)
Implementation costs ~$100-210B (2030 economy-wide)
Shindell et al., Nature Climate Change, 2016
Shindell, Climatic Change, 2015
How Well do we Know the Values
CO2
non-CO2 C-cycle
Damage Func
Damage Func
Climate-Health
Climate-Health
Comp-Health
Comp-Health
Regional Aer
Regional Aer
Reference T
Reference T
GDP
GDP
Mortality
Mortality
Fertilization
Fertilization
TCR
TCR
RF
RF
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
CH4
non-CO2 C-cycle
-100
Damage Func
Climate-Health
Climate-Health
Comp-Health
Comp-Health
Regional Aer
Regional Aer
Reference T
Reference T
GDP
GDP
Mortality
Mortality
Fertilization
Fertilization
TCR
TCR
RF
RF
non-CO2 C-cycle
-50
0
50
100
150
BC
-50
0
50
-100
non-CO2 C-cycle
100
150
N 2O
non-CO2 C-cycle
Damage Func
-100
OC
non-CO2 C-cycle
-50
0
50
100
HFC
150
How Well do we Know the Values
dSW/dAOD
GISS-E2
CESM1
HadGEM3
ΔTOA SW / ΔAOD
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Axis Title
Series 1
0.6
ΔSO4 / ΔAOD
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
GISS-E2
CESM1
HadGEM3
Kasoar et al.,
ACPD, 2016
How can policy & research maximize societal benefits?
Need to define broad targets (e.g. UN Sustainable
Development Goals)
Need to relate specific actions to broad targets
(wider metrics)
Need to target efforts to improve quantification of
key sources of uncertainty influencing valuation