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Ireland and the Kyoto Protocol Micheal Young Inspector (Environment) Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government Presentation Overview Science – Policy Development Role of Kyoto Sinks – Marrakesh Accords National Climate Policy Climate Science. IPCC established 1988 (1990) ‘climate change is a real threat’ SAR (1995) ‘balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate’ FAR TAR (2001) concluded: ‘most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentration’ Climate Science. TAR (2001) By 2100 average temp 1.4 - 5.8oC Global sea level rise 0.09 - 0.88 m Warming greater than 20th Century Stabilise CO2 levels at twice pre-industrial levels require global emission reductions up to 70% Global International Action Earth Summit Rio (1992) UNFCCC – legal basis 188 countries ratified ‘Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ (Art. 2) ‘Common but differentiated responsibilities’ Returning GHGs to 1990 level 2000 International Action Kyoto Protocol (1997) -5% 1990 GHGs from Developed Countries (Annex I) for Period 2008-12 legally binding - basis for further reductions carbon sinks/ flexible mechanisms EU -8% reduction - ‘Burden’ sharing EU Burden Sharing. Spain Greece Portugal Ireland Sweden Luxembourg Germany -300 -250 United Kingdom -21,0 % -200 -150 +25,0 % +27,0 % +13,0 % +4,0 % France 0% Finland 0% -28,0 % Austria -13,0 % Belgium -7,5 % Netherlands -6,0 % Denmark -21,0 % Italy +15,0 % -6,5 % -12,5 % -100 -50 GHG emissions (Million tonnes CO2-eq.) 0 50 100 Kyoto Ratification Entry into force requires: Ratification by 55 parties Representing 55 % of emissions of Annex I parties. 119 Parties accounting for 44.2 % Emissions Non ratified Annex I parites. Russia Aus. US Other 17.4% 2.1% 36.1% options? Kyoto Sinks Article 3.3 Sinks limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation since 1990 resulting from direct human-induced acitivity Article 3.4 Sinks Additional Activities - Agricultural soils and LUCF How and which activities to account for set out in Marrakesh Accords (2001) Marrakesh Accords (2001) Additional Activities for First CP (3.4 Sinks) May include: Revegetation, forest management, cropland management, grazing land management Must Elect in National Report by 2007 Activities must have occurred since 1990 Accounting on a Net – Net basis Forest Management capped at 50 kt C for IRL Draft Good Practice Guidance LULUCF for COP9 in Milan in December 2003. Sectoral Breakdown 1990 Waste 3.3% Sectoral Breakdown 1990 - all GHGs Energy 21.6% Agric 34.6% Ind 8.0% Process 5.5% Transp 9.5% Resid 13.1% Comm/Instis 4.5% Sectoral Breakdown 2001 Waste 2% Energy 25% Agric 28% Ind 8% Resid 10% Com m /Instis 5% Process 5% Transp 17% Distance to Target Indicator Spain 26.2 Ireland 17.5 Portugal 16.6 Belgium 10.0 Austria 9.2 Denmark (1) 8.8 Greece Italy 7.2 Netherlands France 5.6 -1.7 -3.9 Sweden -4.1 Finland United Kingdom -6.7 Germany Luxembourg -8.6 -31.1 0.5 EU-15 -40.0 8.7 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 National Context. National Strategy - NCCS. Guiding principles promote sustainable development least cost / ‘no regret’ measures sectoral equity protection of economic development generating impetus for early action NCCS Key Measures Cross-sectoral instruments phased incremental framework for tax measures D/Fin consultation. participate EU/International emissions trading EU Directive finalised. Energy fuel switching less carbon intensive fuels expansion of renewables/CHP AER VI 35 MW Biomass demand side management NCCS Key Measures Transport fuel efficiency measures - Biofuels modal shift - public transport (LUAS etc.) fuel ‘tourism’ Industrial market instruments/trading negotiated agreements - reduce tax burden NCCS Key Measures Agriculture 10% methane reduction from national herd 10% reduction of nitrogen fertilisers uptake of forestry in REPS Waste diversion of organics/methane capture Forestry additional planting potential forest management Sinks in Forestry and Ag. NCCS to address 13 Mt CO2 2.41 Mt from Agriculture sector 1.2 Mt herd reductions 0.25 Mt on-farm sequestration Forestry Sinks 1Mt (Article 3.3) Latest estimates 1.6 Mt (Article 3.3) Unlikely to avail of Forest Management under Article 3.4 NCCS Implementation Climate Change Team Inter Departmental Committee Bienniel Review to report by year end. Impact of Strategy Impact of Strategy 73,794 75,000 63,239 Kyoto Limit 60,740 58,379 60,000 Mt CO2 Equivalent 53,752 45,000 30,000 15,000 0 1990 1998 2010 without measures 2010 with Strategy measures Ireland and the Kyoto Protocol Micheal Young Inspector (Environment) Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government