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Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets Joint Oireactas Committee Communications, Climate Change and Natural Resources EPA Dara Lynott, Tom Ryan Stephen Treacy 25th October 2016 EPA role in relation to Greenhouse Gases The compilation and provision of annual reports of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector The development and provision of National Emissions Projections taking into account national climate change mitigation policies and measures Implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) – Permitting, Monitoring, Reporting, Verification Union Registry Management, Credit Auction Monitoring Secretariat to the Climate Council and support for climate change research Collaborative approach Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gas Sectoral Contributions 1990 2014 Total Greenhouse Emissions – nonETS and ETS 80 70 60 Mt CO2 eq 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Non ETS Emissions ETS Emissions EU Targets Non-ETS Emissions Trajectory to 2020 50 45 40 Mt CO2eq 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2013 2014 WM Non-ETS Emissions 2015 2016 2017 WAM Non-ETS Emissions 2018 2019 2020 Annual Limits Projected cumulative distance to Target for Non-ETS Sector 2013-2020 14 12 10 8 Mt CO2eq 6 4 2 0 -2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -4 -6 -8 -10 With Measures With Additional Measures 2019 2020 Challenges Post 2020 for non-ETS EU Climate Energy Framework sets targets to cut emissions in EU Territory by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 New ESR proposal for the Non-ETS sectors to be agreed for years 2021-2030 – proposal for Ireland to reduce emissions by 30% below 2005 by 2030 New flexibilities potentially available in terms of GHG accounting and compliance in the new proposal: Use of credits from carbon sinks – LULUCF (capped at 5.6% of 2005 emissions) Use of EU ETS allowances (capped at 4% of 2005 emissions) LULUCF? Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry Forests and agricultural lands currently cover more than three-quarters of the EU's territory Hold large stocks of carbon, preventing its escape into the atmosphere. Draining of peat land, felling of forest or ploughing up grassland generates emissions Actions such as afforestation or conversion of arable land into grassland can protect carbon stocks or result in carbon sequestration. Land use and forestry – which include our use of soils, trees, plants, biomass and timber – can thus contribute to a robust climate policy. Closing Comments Under current projections, Ireland will likely not meet 2020 targets (even under cumulative mechanism & with additional measures) Economic recovery evident in emissions from transport and certain industrial sectors – increases the challenge Significant challenge to meet EU2030 and National 2050 targets Thank you