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TASMANIAN GREENHOUSE GAS ACCOUNTS State Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 2 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts: State Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2011-12 © Government of Tasmania Tasmanian Climate Change Office Excerpts from this publication may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968. Published June 2014 ISBN 978 0 7246 5690 1 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 5 Greenhouse Gases referenced in this Report ......................................................... 5 Methods and Sector Coverage ................................................................................... 5 Measuring Tasmania’s Emissions ............................................................................... 6 Baseline and Annual Emissions Profile................................................................................7 Tasmania’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile .......................................................7 Emissions by Sector ................................................................................................................ 11 Energy ................................................................................................................................ 11 Industrial Processes ....................................................................................................... 17 Agriculture ........................................................................................................................ 18 Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) .......................................... 19 Waste ................................................................................................................................ 20 Key Performance Indicators ................................................................................................. 21 Sectoral Emissions over Time ..................................................................................... 21 Emissions Per Capita .................................................................................................... 22 Emissions Per Gross State Product (GSP) .............................................................. 23 Progress Against Target .............................................................................................. 24 References ................................................................................................................................ 25 TABLES Table 1 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector, 1989-90 and 2011-12 ................... 8 Table 2 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector, 2010-11 and 2011-12 .................. 10 FIGURES Figure 1 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions, excluding LULUCF......................................... 8 Figure 2 – Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector, excluding LULUCF .................... 9 Figure 3 - Tasmanian energy sector CO2-e emissions ................................................ 11 Figure 4 - Tasmanian energy industries CO2-e emissions.......................................... 12 Figure 5 - Tasmanian manufacturing industries and construction CO2-e emissions .................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 6 - Tasmanian transport CO2-e emissions ......................................................... 14 Figure 7 - Tasmanian fugitive CO2-e emissions from fuels ........................................ 15 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 4 Figure 8 - Tasmanian other sectors and ‘other’ CO2-e emissions ........................... 16 Figure 9 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions from industrial processes .......................... 17 Figure 10 - Tasmanian agriculture CO2-e emissions .................................................... 18 Figure 11 - Tasmanian LULUCF CO2-e emissions ........................................................... 19 Figure 12 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions from waste................................................... 20 Figure 13 - Change in Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector .................................. 21 Figure 14 - Tasmania’s per capita CO2-e emissions .................................................... 22 Figure 15 - Figure 15 – Tasmania’s CO2-e emissions per $ million GSP ................ 23 Figure 16 - Tasmania’s progress against its legislated emissions reduction target ...................................................................................................................................................... 24 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 5 INTRODUCTION This report presents Tasmania’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector for 2011-12 and tracks progress towards the legislated emissions reduction target. Tasmania’s Climate Change (State Action) Act 2008 sets a target of 60 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. The Act provides an overarching framework to guide effective responses to the challenges of climate change through reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of a changing climate. The Climate Change (Greenhouse Gas Emissions) Regulations 2012, established under the Act, require the Minister to publish Tasmania’s baseline greenhouse gas emissions as well as information about emissions reductions. This must be done no later than 60 days after the Australian Government publishes the annual State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories report. This report has been compiled using data from the Australian Government’s State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2011-12, which is available at: www.environment.gov.au GREENHOUSE GASES REFERENCED IN THIS REPORT This report covers the same sources and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities as the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Those greenhouse gases included are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perflurocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. Each greenhouse gas varies in terms of its contribution to climate change. Under the Kyoto Protocol, conversion factors have been agreed that enable the global warming potential of each gas to be converted into a single, consistent value of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e). For consistency, emissions throughout this report are also described as CO2-e. METHODS AND SECTOR COVERAGE To ensure consistency and comparability between the inventories of different countries, all signatories to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol must estimate their emissions using methods described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), or country-specific methodologies where these are consistent with the IPCC guidelines. Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 6 Under the Kyoto Protocol, emissions and removals (or sinks) are reported for the following sectors: energy (including stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions), industrial processes, agriculture, waste and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). MEASURING TASMANIA’S EMISSIONS The Climate Change (Greenhouse Gas Emissions) Regulations 2012 set out the method for measuring Tasmania’s 1989-90 baseline greenhouse gas emissions and for measuring changes to the State’s emissions over time. The method outlined in the regulations is consistent with national and international emissions reporting protocols and requirements. The 1989-90 baseline figure is the total carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) emissions for Tasmania for the financial year ending on 30 June 1990, as set out in the most recently published State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories report. Emissions for the following sectors are to be included: energy; industrial processes; agriculture; waste; land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF); and any other sector set out in the State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories report. A reduction in the amount of Tasmania’s emissions for a year, commencing on or after 1 January 1991, is calculated by subtracting the sum of CO2-e emission figures for Tasmania in a given financial year from the baseline figure. Emissions reductions over time are also measured using the most recently published State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories report. Emissions are expressed as gigagrams (Gg) in this report, in line with reporting guidelines of the United Nations Framework Conventjon on Climate Change. 1 gigagram (Gg) = 1 000 tonnes = 1 kilotonne (kt) 1 megatonne (Mt) = 1 000 000 tonnes = 1 000 Gg Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 7 BASELINE AND ANNUAL EMISSIONS PROFILE This section provides a summary of Tasmania’s baseline and 2011-12 emissions. TASMANIA’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS PROFILE Tasmania’s 1989-90 baseline greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 11 264 Gg (or 11.3 Mt). In 2011-12, Tasmania generated approximately 7 013 Gg (or 7.0 Mt) of CO2-e emissions. This represents an overall decline in emissions of almost 38 per cent from baseline levels. The decline in Tasmania’s emissions over this period is largely attributable to reforestation of land cleared before 1990 as well as changes to the international accounting methods used to estimate emissions1. Table 1 provides emissions by major source and sinks categories for the baseline year and 2011-12 (the latest reported year). Greenhouse gas source and sink categories Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Waste Total CO2-e emissions 1 1989-90 (Base year) (Gg) 2011-12 (Gg) Percentage change (%) 3 632 1 473 2 251 3 506 3 941 1 445 2 136 -811 8.5 -1.9 -5.1 -123.1 401 11 264 301 7 013 -24.9 -37.7 Of particular significance is the change to methods for determining LULUCF emissions from 2008 onwards. Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 8 Table 1 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector, 1989-90 and 2011-12 When land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions and sinks are excluded, there was a small increase of 0.9 per cent in Tasmania’s emissions from the baseline to 2011-12. Following a significant decline in emissions between 1990-91 and 1991-92, Tasmania experienced a general upward trend in emissions over the twenty year period between 1991-92 and 2011-12 (see Figure 1). Figure 1 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions, excluding LULUCF Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 9 Figure 2 shows the contribution of different sectors to Tasmania’s emissions for 2011-12. In this analysis, LULUCF emissions are excluded and the energy sector is divided into transport energy and stationary energy (all non-transport energy sources). The agriculture sector, transport energy and stationary energy were the three main contributors to the State’s emissions, generating 27 per cent, 26 per cent and 25 per cent respectively. Figure 2 – Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector, excluding LULUCF Tasmania’s total annual emissions declined by about 7.9 per cent in 2011-12 compared with the previous year. Table 2 provides emissions by major sectors for 2010-11 and 2011-12. Greenhouse gas source and sink categories 2010-11 (Gg) 2011-12 (Gg) Percentage change (%) Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Waste Total CO2-e emissions 4 005 1 503 2 013 3 941 1 445 2 136 -1.6 -3.9 6.1 -221 312 -811 301 267.02 -3.5 7 612 7 013 -7.9 2 The positive percentage change indicates an increase in LULCF as a greenhouse sink. Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 10 Table 2 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector, 2010-11 and 2011-12 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 11 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR This section provides a more detailed review of emissions and trends for each major sector and associated subsectors. ENERGY The energy sector contributed about 56 per cent (3 941 Gg) of Tasmania’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2011-12. As shown in Figure 3, emissions from the sector peaked in 2007-08 and have declined each year from 2009-10. Figure 3 - Tasmanian energy sector CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 to 2011-12 The energy sector comprises the following sub-sectors: energy industries, manufacturing industries and construction, transport, other sectors, other and fugitive emissions from fuels. In 2011-12, transport was the major contributor to Tasmania’s energy sector emissions (1 993 Gg), followed by manufacturing industries and construction (835 Gg) and energy industries (667 Gg). Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 12 ENERGY INDUSTRIES The energy industries sub-sector includes emissions from the generation of electricity by combustion of fossil fuels. It also includes combustion emissions from petroleum refining, oil and gas extraction and processing, coal mining and solid fuel manufacturing sectors. Between 1989-90 and 2011-12, emissions from the energy industries sub-sector increased by 17.9 per cent. As shown in Figure 4, the sub-sector generated only a small quantity of emissions during the 1990s and then trended upwards from the early 2000s. This increase was driven by the introduction of natural gas into Tasmania in 2002. Since 2009, combustion of natural gas at the Tamar Valley Power Station has been responsible for the majority of energy industry emissions in Tasmania, with annual variations since that time largely reflecting the use of the power station. Figure 4 - Tasmanian energy industries CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 13 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION The manufacturing industries and construction sub-sector includes emissions from on-site combustion of fossil fuels by the manufacturing, non-energy mining and construction sectors. Between 1989-90 and 2011-12, emissions from the manufacturing industries and construction sub-sector decreased by 15 per cent. During this period there were notable declines in emissions during 2002-03 and 2010-11 (see Figure 5). The decline in emissions over this period is linked with contraction of the manufacturing sector in Tasmania. In particular, sub-sectors of food and beverage; wood and paper products; and textile, clothing and footwear. Figure 5 - Tasmanian manufacturing industries and construction CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 14 TRANSPORT The transport sub-sector includes emissions from the direct combustion of fuels in transportation by road, rail, domestic aviation and domestic shipping. In 2011-12, transport was a significant source of Tasmania’s greenhouse gas emissions contributing about 28 per cent of the State’s total emissions. As shown in Figure 6, between 1989-90 and 2011-12 Tasmania’s transport emissions grew by 27.7 per cent. There has been a steady upward trend in these emissions, which is consistent with an increase in vehicle numbers over this time. Figure 6 - Tasmanian transport CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 15 FUGITIVE EMISSIONS FROM FUELS Fugitive emissions from fuels are associated with the extraction and distribution of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. This sub-sector is a minor contributor to Tasmania’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from this sub-sector have grown from a very low base of 1 Gg in 1989-90 to 19 Gg in 2011-12. There has been a noticeable reduction in emissions between 2010-11 and 2011-12 (see Figure 7), which is due to a reduction in the State’s production of coal. Figure 7 - Tasmanian fugitive CO2-e emissions from fuels, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 16 OTHER SECTORS AND OTHER Other sectors include emissions from energy used by the commercial, institutional and residential sectors, as well as fuel used by agricultural, fishery and forestry equipment. ‘Other’ emissions include all remaining fuel combustion emissions such as those from engine lubricants and greases. In 2011-12, other sectors contributed about 6 per cent (422 Gg) of Tasmania’s total emissions. Over the period 1989-90 to 2011-12, emissions from other sectors declined by almost 18 per cent (see Figure 8). Emissions from the ‘other’ sub-sector have consistently been only a minor contributor to the State’s overall emissions. Figure 8 - Tasmanian other sectors and ‘other’ CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 to 201112 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 17 INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES The industrial processes sector in Tasmania includes emissions produced from the mineral and metal processing industries, such as cement, aluminum, manganese, lime and zinc production. Also included is the consumption of synthetic greenhouse gases used in refrigeration, air-conditioning, and electricity distribution. In 2011-12, emissions from industrial processes contributed about 21 per cent (1 445 Gg) of Tasmania’s total emissions. Over the period 1989-90 to 2011-12, emissions from the sector declined by 1.9 per cent (see Figure 9). The relative stability of the emissions masks the significant achievements of a number of Tasmania’s largest industries. For example, Bell Bay Aluminum has, since 1990, reduced the direct emissions per tonne of aluminum by 75 per cent, while increasing its production over this time by 53 per cent. A growing component of this category is the consumption of synthetic greenhouse gases, which has grown from 0.4 per cent in 1989-90 to 13 per cent in 2011-12. These are estimated on a per capita basis in each state and territory. Figure 9 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions from industrial processes, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 18 AGRICULTURE Emissions from the agriculture sector include methane and nitrous oxide from enteric fermentation in livestock, manure management, crops, agricultural and forest soils, agricultural burning as well as prescribed burning of savannas. In 2011-12, agricultural emissions contributed about 30 per cent (2 136 Gg) of Tasmania’s total emissions. This predominantly comprise emissions from enteric fermentation (1 568 Gg in 2011-12), followed by agricultural soils (502 Gg in 2011-12) and manure management (61 Gg in 2011-12). Between 1989-90 and 2011-12, emissions from the agriculture sector declined by 5.1 per cent, although there has been significant variation during that time period as shown in Figure 10. This has largely been due to fluctuating livestock numbers, particularly sheep. While beef cattle and dairy cow numbers have remained fairly stable over the past 15 years, the number of sheep in Tasmania reduced sharply in the late 1990s and early 2000s, before stabilising in the mid2000s. Sheep numbers have been increasing again since 2009-103, which is likely to have contributed to the recent growth in emissions. Figure 10 - Tasmanian agriculture CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 to 2011-12 3 Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmanian Livestock Sector Score Card and Production Trends 2011-12, http://dpipwe.tas.gov.au/Documents/2011%2012%20Livestock%20Sector%20Scorecard%20and%20Production%20Trends.pdf Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 19 LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY (LULUCF) The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector incorporates afforestation and reforestation, as well as land use change (deforestation). Afforestation and reforestation refers to emissions and sinks associated with forests established on previously cleared land since 1990. Deforestation refers to emissions and sinks from direct human-induced removal of forest and replacement with pasture, crops or other uses on land that was forested on 1 January 1990. Figure 11 - Tasmanian LULUCF CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Figure 11 includes LULUCF data from 1989-90, as well as the first commitment period for Australia under the Kyoto Protocol. Data for other years is not available due to a difference in the method for calculating the initial assigned amount (for 1989-90) and the commitment period. The LULUCF sector in Tasmania has changed from being a significant source of emissions in 1989-90 (3 506 Gg or about 31 per cent of total emissions) to an emissions sink for the last two reported years. Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 20 WASTE The waste sector includes emissions associated with landfills, wastewater treatment, waste incineration and the biological treatment of solid waste. The waste sector is only a minor contributor to Tasmania’s total emissions, contributing about 4 per cent (301 Gg) in 2011-12 to the State’s total. Figure 12 - Tasmanian CO2-e emissions from waste, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Figure 12 shows that emissions generated from the waste sector were relatively stable between 1989-90 and 2003-04. The drop in emissions by 100 Gg from 2003-04 to 2011-12, is largely due to the installation of flaring or landfill-gas to energy generators at Hobart, Glenorchy and Launceston landfills. The general downward trend during this period is supported by the efforts to minimize waste generation, increase recycling and divert organic materials from landfill. Emissions in 2011-12 were almost 25 per cent lower than in 1989-90. Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 21 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS This section provides an overview of Tasmania’s progress against key performance indicators, including sectoral emissions over time, emissions per capita and emissions per dollar of Gross State Product. The State’s performance against its legislated emissions reduction target of 60 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050 is also considered. SECTORAL EMISSIONS OVER TIME Figure 13 shows how Tasmania’s emissions from the major sectors have changed from1989-90 to 2011-12. The largest emissions reductions have been in the LULUCF sector (123.1 per cent), followed by waste (24.9 per cent), agriculture (5.1 per cent) and industrial processes (1.9 per cent). The energy sector was the only sector to increase its emissions, with an 8.5 per cent increase in 2011-12 compared with 1989-90. Figure 13 - Change in Tasmanian CO2-e emissions by sector, 1989-90 to 2011-12 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 22 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA Per capita emissions are an estimate of the average greenhouse gas emissions per person in Tasmania. As shown in Figure 14, emissions per person have declined from 24.4 tonnes CO2-e in 1989-90 to 13.7 tonnes CO2-e in 2011-124. Figure 14 - Tasmania’s per capita CO2-e emissions, 1989-90 and 2011-12 Derived from: Australian Government (2014) Australian National Greenhouse Accounts State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2011-12 and ABS (2012) 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics. 4 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 23 EMISSIONS PER GROSS STATE PRODUCT (GSP) Emissions per unit of Gross State Product (GSP) are calculated by dividing Tasmania’s net emissions by the value of its GSP (chain volume measure). Between 1989-90 and 2011-12, Tasmania’s emissions per $ million of GSP declined from 727.6 tonnes to 288.1 tonnes5 (Figure 15). Figure 15 - Figure 15 – Tasmania’s CO2-e emissions per $ million GSP, 1989-90 and 2011-12 Derived from: Australian Government (2014) Australian National Greenhouse Accounts State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2011-12 and ABS (2012) 5220.0 Australian National Accounts: State Accounts. 5 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 24 PROGRESS AGAINST TARGET Tasmania’s Climate Change (State Action) Act 2008 contains an emissions reduction target of 60 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. The Tasmanian Wedges Report6, released in 2009, projected that under a business-as-usual scenario Tasmania’s emissions are expected to increase to around 13 Mt (13 000 Gg) in 2050. As shown in Figure 16, for the State to achieve the legislated target it will need to reduce its emissions to around 4.5 Mt (4 500 Gg) by 2050. In 2011-12, the State’s emissions were about 7.0 Mt (7 000 Gg), a reduction from 11.3 Mt (11 300 Gg) in 1989-90. Figure 16 - Tasmania’s progress against its legislated emissions reduction target The Tasmanian Wedges Report is available at: http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/climatechange/what_the_government_has_done/wedges_ report 6 Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet 25 REFERENCES Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) 5220.0 Australian National Accounts: State Accounts Australian Government (2014) State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2011-12. Available at: http://www.environment.gov.au/node/35783 Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmanian Livestock Sector Score Card and Production Trends 2011-12. Available at: http://dpipwe.tas.gov.au/Documents/2011%2012%20Livestock%20Sector%20Scorecard%20and%20Production%20Trends.pdf McLennan Magasanik Associates (2009) Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Project – Understanding the Potential for Reducing Tasmania’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Tasmanian Wedges Report). Available at: http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/climatechange/what_the_government_has _done/wedges_report Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Accounts 2011-12 Tasmanian Climate Change Office Department of Premier and Cabinet Email: [email protected] Visit: www.climatechange.tas.gov.au