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Climate Change Professor Matthew England Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory School of Mathematics, Faculty of Science The University of New South Wales Causes of climate change CO2 Concentration is Rising 2004 1000 290 190 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1959 Why is Venus hotter than Mercury? Mercury temperature = ~85C Venus temperature = 500 C Answer - The Greenhouse Effect! NH air temperatures since 1000 A.D. Global 20th Century Temperature Trends Is the Antarctic changing? … observations Larsson-B Ice Shelf Collapse 31 January to 7 March 2002 http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/animation.html Twentieth Century Land-Ice Changes Davis et al., Vaughan; Science, 2005 Melting of the Greenland Ice-sheet Australian temperature trend, 1950 – present day Australian rainfall trend, 1950 – present day Total annual inflow into Perth Dams IPCC-WG2 [2007] Southern Annular Mode Southern Annular Mode … trend due to ozone delpletion & greenhouse gas increases How much will our climate change in the future? … models Climate Modelling Governing equations Forcing conditions Initial conditions Model output Models of the ocean and atmosphere • Solve governing equations over a discrete grid • Use (sparse) observations in forcing functions • Integrate solutions forward in time • Assess simulation vs. observed fields 5.8 The Past and the Future Instrumental Data Proxy Reconstructions Model Simulations IPCC high and low projection Spörer minimum 1.4 Maunder Dalton minimum minimum ∆T 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Year 500 1000 1500 2000 2100 We are currently tracking at the very high end of emission scenarios and temperature projections Rahmstorf et al. Annual-mean temperature change predicted for 2070-2100 in IPCC Third Assessment Report models Annual mean change in temperature (colour shading) and its range (isolines) (Unit: °C) for the SRES scenario A2, showing the period 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990. Climate Change simulation to year 2054 IPCC-WG1 [2007] CONTROL 2050 Figure 1. Model Simulation of Trend in Hurricanes (from Knutson et al, 2004) CONCLUSIONS • The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century • These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …) • A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, storm tracks, … • These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies CONCLUSIONS • The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century • These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …) • A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, and storm tracks • These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies CONCLUSIONS • The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century • These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …) • A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, and storm tracks • These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies CONCLUSIONS • The planet has seen substantial climate change in the past century • These changes cannot be explained by known modes of natural variability (i.e., solar cycles, …) • A manifestation of climate change can easily be found in air temperatures, rainfall, ocean properties, land-ice, sea-level, winds, and storm tracks • These changes will accelerate over the coming decades/century unless we adopt aggressive response strategies Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Physical oceanography and climate science The study of the physics, properties, and dynamics of the oceans and coupled climate system Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peerreview • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Some issues re. climate science • Climate scientists are well aware of natural variability • Climate scientists have no “conflict-of-interest” • Climate science must undergo rigorous peer-review • Climate scientists should not prescribe policy • Inexpert debate - unlike any other science • Opportunities for innovation and economic growth • We have succeeded before: CFC’s, … • Climate scientists are your best source of information for climate science Climate Change Professor Matthew England Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory School of Mathematics, Faculty of Science The University of New South Wales Milankovitch Forcing: Variation in Incident Solar Radiation Due to Natural Variations in Earth’s Orbit • Eccentricity: 100,000 Year Cycle • Obliquity: 41,000 Year Cycle • Precession: 26,000 Year Cycle Simulation: Global Warming Scenario (Rahmstorf & Ganopolski, Clim. Change 1999) Antarctic Circumpolar Current Southern Ocean water-masses The Greenhouse fingerprint