Download Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri

Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes
for Kansas City, Missouri
INTRODUCTION
Weather conditions in Kansas City, Missouri will change as greenhouse gas concentration continues to increase. This report will
assist the planning efforts of city officials and staff or other individuals considering the potential impact of climate change on the
area. It contains summary information of the local weather response expected under different possible levels of greenhouse
gases in the future.
The Kansas City Climate Change Story
As pointed out in the National Climate Assessment, climate change will tend to amplify existing climate-related risks to people,
ecosystems, and infrastructure in the Midwest. Analysis in this report indicates Kansas City can expect to see changes consistent
with those expected regionally. While the recent change in temperatures observed in Kansas City is relatively modest,
temperature is projected to increase substantially over the remainder of this century. Temperature will increase in all seasons,
summers will accumulate more cooling degree-days and winters will accumulate fewer heating degree-days. Heat waves will
become more frequent and summer nights will become hotter. Recent and projected increases in precipitation for Kansas City
are substantial, with seasonal rainfall increases clear for both spring and fall. In addition, rainfall increase is clear for extreme
events including annual maximum of daily, 5-day, and 15-day precipitation. These projected changes in temperature and
precipitation extremes can be expected to increase demand for summertime cooling, degrade local air quality, and place
additional stress on water supply systems, wastewater and stormwater management systems, and flood control efforts.
METHOD
This climate change assessment for Kansas City utilizes the same database of projected climate variables used to develop insights
into national and regional climate change and associated impacts reported in the third U. S. National Climate Assessment (NCA;
Melillo and Coauthors, 2014). The NCA and other assessments explore a variety of potential future climates that each correspond
to as many as eight, well-established scenarios of global human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions adopted by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Nakicenovic and Coauthors, 2000), a program of the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations Environment Program. While useful for discerning trends over broad areas, these national
and global assessments simply cannot provide the localized information for planning or similar local activities of interest to the
tens of thousands of municipalities in the United States.
In part to simplify the process, this report provides an assessment of change in local climate conditions through the end of the
21st century for just two emissions scenarios developed for the IPCC and summarized in the NCA. A1FI is a high emissions
scenario in which the rate of GHG emissions continues to increase in a manner consistent with that seen for the last two decades.
A1B is a moderate emissions scenario in which the rate of increase GHG emissions slows due to a variety of mitigation efforts.
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
While A1FI might be considered “business as usual,” voluntary commitments made at the Conference of Parties (COP) in Paris in
December of 2015, would put the world on a path closer to A1B, and the agreement to limit warming to +2C (+3.4°F) would be
below A1B. This discussion serves to underscore one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate projections, the rate at which
GHG (especially from fossil fuels) will be emitted. (More detailed descriptions of handling of uncertainty are provided in Appendix
A.)
Any changes observed over the last three or four decades, a period when the climate signal associated with increase
concentrations of GHG began to emerge from the noise created by weather variability, provide a context within which projected
change can be evaluated. When broad spatial patterns of change occur, many municipalities within the same region will
experience a common direction of change (warmer vs. cooler, wetter vs. dryer). When local change is significantly different from
regional change, the likelihood that local change will continue should be assigned less confidence unless a factor explaining trend
differences is determined. Some examples include urbanization, deforestation, and switch from grassland to cropland.
Confidence in the direction and rate of projected climate change is important when including consideration of future climate in
planning or other decision making activities. ClimateLOOK™ reports, therefore, include a discussion of the level of agreement of
climate projections generated for a location of interest to regional trends observed over the previous 40 years (1976-2015).
When the direction of projected regional trend differs from that of any observed regional trend, the projected trend is
characterized as being in “poor agreement.” Conversely, when the projected regional trend agrees with direction, but not the
rate, of the observed trend (differ by more than 20 percent) the projected trend is characterized as only being in “good
agreement.” Finally, when the projected regional trend agrees with rate and direction of any observed regional trend, the
projected trend is characterized as being in “very good agreement.” Users are cautioned that any trend labeled in this report as
being in “poor agreement” with the regional observed trend, as described above, are highly suspect. Users should always apply
professional judgment and awareness of sensitivity of potential decisions or applications of the results of this report when
determining the usefulness of the analysis it contains.
CLIMATE OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA
Historically, Kansas City lies in a humid continental climate zone, described as temperate with extremes of heat, cold, and
precipitation. The Kansas City climate station used in this assessment, as well as the NCA, is located at the Charles B. Wheeler
Downtown Airport (Figure 1), and has a period of record from 1893 to present. Since record keeping began at that station,
Kansas City has experienced high and low average annual temperatures of 65.1°F and 45.8°F. Annual rainfall is 34.8" and snowfall
is 16.2". Monthly temperature reaches peak value in July with average high temperature of 89.2°F. The annual low occurs in
January with average minimum of 20.3°F. Rainfall is largest in June with an average of 4.9". The least precipitation occurs in
February with an average of 1.3".
Figure 1: Location of the Global Historical
Climatology Network Station
[USW00013988] that provided historical
observations used in the NCA and
reported in this report. (Google Maps)
 USW00013988
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 2: U.S. Climate Divisions (NOAA2016a).
Extreme daily conditions are inherent in the climate of Kansas City and the surrounding region (referred to as Missouri Climate
Division 1; Figure 2). The highest and lowest recorded temperatures differ by over 130° F, with the annual record maximum and
minimum temperatures of 112° F and -22° F. The maximum daily rainfall and snowfall are 8.1" and 20.5" (More information on
observed trends in the regional precipitation is reported in NOAA Atlas 14 [NOAA 2016b]). Observed regional changes in
temperature and precipitation for the 40-year period 1976 ‒ 2015 (Figures 3 and 4) are summarized below:

Annual temperature has increased in Missouri by 0.3°F per decade, with the average annual statewide temperature
increasing from 53.6°F to 55.8°F (Figure 3a).

Annual temperature has increased in Missouri Climate Division 1, by 0.3°F per decade, with the average annual
temperature increasing from 52.0°F to 54.2°F (Figure 3b).

Annual precipitation has increased in Missouri by 0.54" per decade. Based upon the trend, the average annual statewide
precipitation has increased from 40.1" to 44.5" (Figure 4a).

Annual precipitation has increased in Missouri Climate Division 1 by 0.25" per decade, with average annual precipitation
increasing from 37.5" to 40.0" (Figure 4b).
Figure 3a: Recent change in
annual temperature for
Missouri statewide (Figure
source: NOAA National Centers
for Environmental Information,
Climate At A Glance).
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 3b: Recent observed
trends in annual temperature
for Missouri Climate Division 1,
Northwest Prairie (Fig. 3b; top
panel) (Figure source: NOAA
National Centers for
Environmental Information,
Climate At A Glance).
Figure 4a and 4b: Recent
observed trends in annual
precipitation for Missouri
statewide (Fig. 4a; middle panel)
and Missouri Climate Division 1,
Northwest Prairie (Fig. 4b; bottom
panel) (Figure source: NOAA
National Centers for
Environmental Information,
Climate At A Glance).
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 5. Projected trends in annual
average temperature. Columns show
the average by period (left columns,
1976 ‒ 2015; middle columns, 2021 ‒
2060; right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black column—
observed; blue columns—moderate
emissions scenario; red columns—
high emissions scenario).
Climate Indicator (Annual Average For Period)
1976 - 2015
Observed
2021 - 2060
2061 - 2100
A1FI (High)
((High)(High)
60.3
A1B (Mod)
56.5
60.3
64.4
A1B (Mod)
1!1B63.4
(Mod)
Heat Wave Daytime Temperature ( F)
100.3
105.3
103.5
111.4
107.5
o
79.8
83.9
83.4
90.2
87.2
o
Temperature ( F)
o
Heat Wave Nighttime Temperature ( F)
o
Number of Days Max. Temp. > 105 F
A1FI (High)
0.7
6.3
3.6
21.9
9.8
36.4
1.4
84.4
5.6
77.0
5.0
114.9
10.8
99.7
10.8
4.4
3.8
3.3
2.9
2.9
Cooling Degree Days
1662.8
2414.3
2287.0
3270.0
2846.2
Heating Degree Days
4790.3
4137.1
4015.3
3496.4
3420.6
o
Number of Days Min. Temp. > 70 F
o
Cold Wave Nighttime Temperature ( F)
Number of Freeze - Thaw Cycles
Spring Frost
Fall Frost
April 02
April 01
March 26
March 24
March 16
October 31
212.5
November 07
219.7
November
05
224.5
November 16
237.0
November 10
238.4
Frost Free Days
Table 1: Average annual values for temperature related climate indicators
Projected Climate Change for Kansas City through 2100
Over the coming century, climate change is projected to affect the state of Missouri, and the Midwest as a whole, by increasing
annual temperature and rainfall (NCA 2014). Kansas City is projected to also experience increases in temperature and
precipitation, though these changes may differ in detail from regional and statewide changes expected.
Temperature
Kansas City is projected to experience an increase in annual average temperature of 4°F by mid-century (2021-2060) compared to
that observed during the last four decades (1976 ‒ 2015), regardless as to which emissions pathway tends to be more
representative of actual emissions (Figure 5, Table 1). The increase is projected to be roughly 7°F by the end of the century (2061
‒ 2100) if moderate emissions reductions are achieved or as high as 8°F if the rate of increase in emissions seen recently
continues. The direction of trend in projected temperature agrees with the increase observable over the last 40 years. The rate of
increase in temperature would, however, need to accelerate relative to the observed trend, and so the projected trend is only in
“good agreement” with the observed record (Figure 3). Highlights drawn from the summary of relevant climate indicators related
to temperature presented in Table 1 include:

Heat waves are projected to increase, on average, by 5°F by mid-century and by 11°F by 2061 ‒ 2100. The worst of the
events could be avoided by the end of the century, if the emissions reductions represented in the moderate scenario
occur, as the maximum temperatures projected at those emission levels are projected to rise by 7°F (Figure 6).

The number of hot days, when temperatures exceed 105°F, is projected to increase in frequency from less than once per
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 6. Projected trends in
annual maximum of 3-day
maximum temperatures
indicating severity of heat
waves. Columns show the
average by period (left columns,
1976 ‒ 2015; middle columns,
2021 ‒ 2060; right columns,
2061 ‒ 2100) and emissions
scenario (black column—
observed; blue columns—
moderate emissions scenario;
red columns—high emissions
scenario).
Figure 7. Projected trends in
annual number of days with
maximum temperature exceeding
105°F indicating frequency of heat
waves. Columns show the average
by period (left columns, 1976 ‒
2015; middle columns, 2021 ‒
2060; right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100)
and emissions scenario (black
column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
year to more than 5 times per year by mid-century and 21 times a year by the end of the century. The frequency of these
events under the moderate emissions scenario is projected to increase less dramatically, to 3 times per year by mid-century
and 9 times a year by the end of the century (Figures 7).

Hot nights, associated with heat waves, are projected to increase in temperature and frequency. The maximum average
overnight lows are projected to increase by 4°F by mid-century and 10°F by the end of the century under the high emissions
scenario. Hot nights in the moderate emissions scenario would be somewhat cooler, but average overnight temperatures
associated with heat waves are still projected to increase by 9°F by the end of the century. The frequency of overnight lows
above 70°F, when air conditioning is often employed, can be expected to double by the end of the century under both
emission scenarios (Figures 8 and 9).

The coldest nights are projected to become milder by 4°F by mid-century and 9°F by the end of the century under
regardless of which emissions pathway to be more representative of actual emissions (Figure 10).

Freeze-thaw cycles, however, do not change markedly, though they occur over a shorter cold season (Figure 11).

The cooling and heating degree days increase and decrease, respectively. Heating degree days are projected to decrease
from 4800 to 3500 by the end of the century under the high emissions scenario (Figure 12). Cooling degree days, however,
are projected to increase from about 1600 to roughly 3270 in the high emissions scenario (Figure 13) by end of the century.

The frost-free period, under the high emissions scenario, is projected to increase in length from 212 days to nearly 220 days
by mid-century and to over 237 days in by centuries end. However, year-to-year variability is large (Table 1).
6
Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 8. Projected trends in annual
maximum of 3-day minimum
temperatures indicating severity of
hot nights associated with heat
waves. Columns show the average
by period (left columns, 1976 ‒
2015; middle columns, 2021 ‒ 2060;
right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black column—
observed; blue columns—moderate
emissions scenario; red columns—
high emissions scenario).
Figure 9. Projected trends in
annual number of days with
minimum temperature exceeding
70°F indicating frequency of hot
nights associated with heat waves.
Columns show the average by
period (left columns, 1976 ‒ 2015;
middle columns, 2021 ‒ 2060;
right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black
column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
Figure 10. Projected trends in
annual minimum of 3-day
minimum temperatures indate
severity of cold snaps. Columns
show the average by period (left
columns, 1976 ‒ 2015; middle
columns, 2021 ‒ 2060; right
columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black
column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 11. Projected trends in
annual number of freeze-thaw
cycles per year. Columns show the
average by period (left columns,
1976 ‒ 2015; middle columns,
2021 ‒ 2060; right columns, 2061
‒ 2100) and emissions scenario
(black column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
Figure 12. Projected trends in
annual Heating Degree Days
(HDD) indicating possible energy
demand for heating. Annual sum
O
of 65 F minus average daily
temperature (Days with average
O
temperature >65 F are assigned a
value of 0.) Columns show the
average by period (left columns,
1976 ‒ 2015; middle columns,
2021 ‒ 2060; right columns, 2061
‒ 2100) and emissions scenario
(black column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
Figure 13. Projected trends in
annual Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
reflecting possible energy demand
for cooling. Annual sum of average
O
daily temperature minus 65 F.
(Days with average temperature
O
<65 F are assigned a value of 0.)
Columns show the average by
period (left columns, 1976 ‒ 2015;
middle columns, 2021 ‒ 2060;
right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black
column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 14. Projected trends in annual
average precipitation. Columns show
the average by period (left columns,
1976 ‒ 2015; middle columns, 2021 ‒
2060; right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black column—
observed; blue columns—moderate
emissions scenario; red columns—
high emissions scenario).
Climate Indicator (Annual Average For Period)
1976 - 2015
Observed
2021 - 2060
38.8
40.2
A1B (Mod)
(Mod)
40.2
Maximum 1-day Precipitation (inches)
3.4
3.5
3.5
4.0
3.7
Maximum 5-day Precipitation (inches)
5.5
6.2
5.9
7.0
6.1
Maximum 15-day Precipitation (inches)
7.5
8.8
8.4
10.4
8.9
Number of Days > 1.50"
5.0
5.6
5.3
9.3
8.3
Number of Days > 4.00"
0.3
1
Precipitation (inches)
Maximum Consecutive Dry Days
30.9
Table 2: Average annual values for precipitation related climate indicators.
A1FI (High)
2061 - 2100
A1FI (High)
44.6
A1B (Mod)
1!1B (Mod)
41.1
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.4
33.0
32.2
39.5
42.8
Precipitation
Kansas City is projected to experience an increase in annual average precipitation of roughly 1.5” (roughly 4 percent) by midcentury (2021-2060) compared to that observed during the last four decades (1976 ‒ 2015), regardless as to which emissions
pathway tends to be more representative of actual emissions (Figure 14, Table 2). The increase is projected to be over 2”
(roughly 6 percent) by the end of the century (2061 ‒ 2100) if moderate emissions reductions are achieved or as high as 6 inches
(roughly 15 percent), if the rate of increase in emissions seen recently continues (Table 2). These projected precipitation
increases are consistent with recent trends at both the local and regional level, and are thus considered to be in “very good
agreement.” Furthermore, this increase in precipitation can be expected to occur through an increase in the number of extreme
events discussed in Table 2 are summarized below (For a more in depth discussion of the implications for engineering practice of
some of these indicators of change in precipitation see Olson and Coauthors, 2015):

Extreme rainfall amounts are projected to increase for the annual maximum of 1-day, 5-day, and 15-day rainfall (Figures
15, 16, and 17). The increase in annual maximum 1-day, 5-day and, 15-day rainfall, respectively, for the high emissions
scenario is 3, 13, and 17 percent by mid-century and 18, 27, and 39 percent by the end of the century. Projected increases
under the moderate emissions scenario is 3, 7, and 12 percent by mid-century and 9, 11, and 19 percent by the end of the
century.

Number of excessive rainfall days, with rainfall exceeding 1.5" and 4.00", is projected to increase substantially (Figures 18
and 19). The average number of days per year exceeding 1.5" for the high emissions scenario is projected to increase by 12
percent by mid-century and nearly double by the end of the century. Projections for the moderate emissions scenario
increase from by 6 percent by mid-century and 66 percent by the end of the century. The reduction in return interval for
1
Annual and Seasonal Accumulation is summed over days during meteorological season. For seasonal average, divide sum by number of days. Days included
in each season are: Summer, days 152 - 243; Fall, days 244 - 334; Winter, days 335 - 365 (previous year) and 1 - 59; Spring, days 60 – 151.
9
Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 15. Projected trends in annual
average maximum daily precipitation.
Columns show the average by period
(left columns, 1976 ‒ 2015; middle
columns, 2021 ‒ 2060; right columns,
2061 ‒ 2100) and emissions scenario
(black column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
Figure 16. Projected trends in annual
average maximum 5-day
precipitation. Columns show the
average by period (left columns, 1976
‒ 2015; middle columns, 2021 ‒ 2060;
right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black column—
observed; blue columns—moderate
emissions scenario; red columns—
high emissions scenario).
Figure 17. Projected trends in annual
average maximum 15-day
precipitation. Columns show the
average by period (left columns, 1976
‒ 2015; middle columns, 2021 ‒ 2060;
right columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and
emissions scenario (black column—
observed; blue columns—moderate
emissions scenario; red columns—
high emissions scenario).
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 18. Projected trends in annual
average number of days when
precipitation exceeds 1.5“. Columns
show the average by period (left
columns, 1976 ‒ 2015; middle
columns, 2021 ‒ 2060; right columns,
2061 ‒ 2100) and emissions scenario
(black column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
Figure 19. Projected trends in annual
average number of days when
precipitation exceeds 4“. Columns
show the average by period (left
columns, 1976 ‒ 2015; middle
columns, 2021 ‒ 2060; right columns,
2061 ‒ 2100) and emissions scenario
(black column—observed; blue
columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
precipitation exceeding 4.00" for the high emissions scenario decreases from 1-in-3-years to less than 1-in-3-years by midcentury and nearly 1-in-1.5-years by the end of the century. Projections for moderate emissions scenario are similar, with
the return interval increasing from 1-in-3-years to more than 1-in-3-years by mid-century and to 1-in-1.5-years in by the
end of the century.

Length of annual maximum consecutive dry days is projected to increase but exhibits variation by future period (Figure
20). Recent change is not evident in length of annual maximum consecutive dry days. The increase in annual maximum
consecutive dry day length for the high emission scenario is from 31 to 33 by mid-century and to 40 by the end of the
century. The projected increase under the moderate emissions scenario is from 31 to 32 by mid-century to 43 in by the end
of the century. It should be noted that climate models tend to predict a larger number of days with trace rainfall amounts;
hence the modest increase between observed and projected values should be considered a conservative estimate.
Trends in Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation
While separate examination of average annual changes in temperature and precipitation projected for over the rest of the
century is useful, understanding how those changes may play out in tandem seasonally can provide insight into how these two
factors may drive changes in important weather extremes. Changes in the likelihood of drought, heat stress, or other impacts
related to both temperature and precipitation may be inferred from how these two indicators are projected to behave seasonally
11
Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
Figure 20. Projected trends in annual
average number of consecutive dry
days. Columns show the average by
period (left columns, 1976 ‒ 2015;
middle columns, 2021 ‒ 2060; right
columns, 2061 ‒ 2100) and emissions
scenario (black column—observed;
blue columns—moderate emissions
scenario; red columns—high
emissions scenario).
Climate Indicator (Seasonal Average For Period)
1976-2015
Observed
o
Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) Temperature ( F)
Winter Precipitation (inches)
1
o
Spring (Mar-Apr-May) Temperature ( F)
Spring Precipitation (inches)
1
o
Summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) Temperature ( F)
Summer Precipitation (inches)
1
o
Fall (Sep-Oct-Nov) Temperature ( F)
1
2021 - 2060
2061 - 2100
A1FI (High)
A1B (Mod)
A1FI (High)
32.0
36.0
37.0
39.2
4.2
4.6
4.7
5.3
4.7
56.0
59.6
61.2
63.1
65.3
11.0
13.0
12.5
15.5
12.8
78.7
83.4
82.5
88.8
85.6
13.9
13.4
12.9
13.7
13.1
57.9
61.0
59.3
65.3
61.7
9.6
10.4
10.4
10.9
Fall Precipitation (inches)
9.5
Table 3: Projected changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation.
A1B (Mod)
1!1B40.7
(Mod)
in the future. Highlights drawn from the summary of relevant climate indicators related to temperature and precipitation
presented in Table 3 include:

Spring precipitation and temperature is projected to increase substantially (relative to the last forty years). Under the
moderate emissions scenario, precipitation is projected to increase by 14 percent (1.5”) by mid-century and 17 percent (2”)
by the end of the century. These increases in precipitation would be accompanied by a roughly 5°F increase in temperature
by mid-century and a roughly 9°F increase by end of the century. Under the high emissions scenario precipitation is
projected to increase by 17 percent (2”) by mid-century and 40 percent (4.5”) by the end of the century. These increases in
precipitation are projected to be accompanied by a roughly 7°F increase in temperature by mid-century and a roughly 9°F
increase by end of the century. Thus, springs overall are expected to be warmer and wetter, suggesting the potential for
heat stress–a phenomenon currently associated with summer–will increase in the late spring months.

Summer precipitation and temperature is projected to change (relative to the last forty years) in a more complex manner.
Under the moderate emissions scenario, precipitation is projected to decrease by 7 percent (1.0”) by mid-century and 6
percent (roughly 2”) by the end of the century (suggesting latter part of the century will be slightly wetter than the midcentury, but still drier than recent history). This overall decrease in precipitation is projected to be accompanied by a
roughly 4°F increase in temperature by mid-century and a roughly 7°F increase by end of the century. Under the high
emissions scenario precipitation is projected to decrease by 4 percent by mid-century and by roughly 2 percent by the end
of the century (again suggesting latter part of the century will be slightly wetter than the mid-century, but still drier than
recent history). This overall decrease in precipitation is projected to be accompanied by a roughly 5°F increase in
temperature by mid-century and a roughly 10°F increase by end of the century. Thus, summers overall are expected to be
hotter and drier, suggesting the potential for summer drought–a phenomenon already of concern–will increase over the
rest of the century.

Fall and winter trends in projected temperate and precipitation appear less significant than those observed for spring and
summer. Winters are projected to become warmer, but not significantly wetter in terms of absolute change. The largest
12
Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
projected change in precipitation under both scenarios and over both time periods is roughly 1”. Furthermore, current
limitations in climate modeling do not support any conclusion about whether this additional precipitation will take the form
of rain or snow. Falls are projected to see the least change in both temperature and precipitation of any of the four
seasons. Milder projected wintertime temperatures contribute to the projected decline in heating degree days shown in
Figure 12.
CONCLUSION
Analysis in this report indicates Kansas City can expect to see changes consistent with those expected regionally. While the
recent change in temperatures observed in Kansas City is relatively modest, temperature is projected to increase substantially
over the remainder of this century. Temperature will increase in all seasons, summers will accumulate more cooling degree-days
and winters will accumulate fewer heating degree-days. Heat waves will become more frequent and summer nights will become
hotter. Recent and projected increases in precipitation for Kansas City are substantial, with seasonal rainfall increases clear for
both spring and fall. In addition, rainfall increase is clear for extreme events including annual maximum of daily, 5-day, and 15day amount. Clearly, mitigation efforts at all scales from local to global would reduce the effects of many of the extreme events
discussed in this report. Recent trends and projected changes indicate that near-term climate adaptation might be best focused
on water systems than heat adaptation, because changes in rainfall are already present and expected to continue; whereas,
temperature will be an emergent change. The projected concomitant changes in spring and summer temperature and
precipitation extremes discussed above can be expected to increase demand for summertime cooling, degrade local air quality,
adversely impact human health, and place additional stress on storm-water management systems and other components of the
local infrastructure.
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Amer. Meteor., 88, 1383-1394.
Melillo, J. M., T. C. Richmond, and Yohe, G.H., 2014, Climate change impacts in the United States: the Third National Climate
Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 841 p.
Moss, R. H., and Coauthors, 2010: The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment. Nature, 463,
747-756.
Nakicenovic, N., and Swart, R., 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Edited by N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart, Cambridge
University Press, pp.612.
NOAA, 2016a, U.S. Climate Divisions, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/maps/us-climate-divisions.php.
NOAA, 2016b, NOAA Atlas 14: Precipitation Frequency Atlas of the United States,
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/index.html).
Olson, R., and Coathors, 2015: Adapting Infrastructure and Civil Engineering Practice to a Changing Climate, Am. Soc. Civil Eng.
doi: 10.1061/9780784479193
Stoner, A. M. K., Hayhoe, K., Yang, X. and Wuebbles, D. J. 2013: An asynchronous regional regression model for statistical
downscaling of daily climate variables. Int. J. Climatol., 33: 2473-2494. doi: 10.1002/joc.3603.
APPENDIX A: SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY AND THEIR TREATMENT
As discussed in the "Method" section above, several climate scenarios are used for each emissions scenario to identify the
clearest signals across a range of future circumstances that are inherently uncertain at present. While widely useful for decision
making and risk analysis, it's important to understand that projections of future climate contain uncertainty for four main
reasons:
1. Natural variability, which causes temperature, precipitation, and other aspects of climate to vary from year to year and even
decade to decade;
2. Scientific uncertainty, as it is still uncertain exactly how much the Earth will warm in response to human emissions and global
climate models cannot perfectly represent every aspect of Earth's climate;
3. Scenario or human uncertainty, as future climate change will occur largely in response to emissions from human activities
that have not yet occurred; and
4. Local uncertainty, which results from the many factors that interact to determine how the climate of one specific location
will respond to global-scale change over the coming century.
To address the first source of uncertainty, natural variability, the climate projections summarized here are averaged over 40-year
periods: historical (1960 - 1999), near-term planning (2021 - 2060) and long-term planning (2061 - 2100).
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Understanding Long-Term Climate Changes for Kansas City, Missouri: A Climate Assessment
To address the second source of uncertainty, scientific uncertainty, future projections are based on simulations from nine global
climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CCSM3, CGCM3, CNRM, ECHO, ECHAM5, GFDL-2.1,
HadCM3, HadGEM, and PCM; Taylor et al. 2012). Differences between the models represent the limitations of scientific ability to
simulate the climate system. Scientific uncertainty is an important source of uncertainty in determining the magnitude and
sometimes even the direction of projected changes in average precipitation, as well as dry days and extreme precipitation.
To address the third source of uncertainty, that of human activities and heat-trapping gas emissions, future projections use two
very different scenarios, the report references the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change moderate emissions reduction
scenario A1B and minor emissions reduction scenario A1FI (Moss et al. 2010). Scenario uncertainty is an important source of
uncertainty in temperature---related projections, particularly over the second half of the century as the scenarios diverge.
Finally, to address the fourth source of uncertainty, that of local change, global climate model simulations were downscaled to
long- term weather station using the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model as described in Stoner et al. (2012). As these
projections are based on one location only, they are not intended to be used for anything except illustrative purposes. To
generate robust projections for future planning purposes, it is recommended that a similar analysis be conducted for all longterm weather stations in the area, and the results of this comprehensive analysis be used to calculate a broad range of secondary
climate indicators identified by city departments as directly relevant to historical impacts and future planning.
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This report was prepared as part of a pilot study carried out in cooperation with Kansas City Water Services.
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