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Download Env 2014 - State of the Climate 2014 summary - Karl Braganza
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CO2 (ppm) 400 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached 395 parts per million in 2013 380 360 340 320 300 Carbon dioxide concentrations over the last 800,000 years 280 260 240 220 200 800 700 600 500 400 Thousands of years ago 300 200 100 The State of the Climate report • Joint Bureau and CSIRO publication • Previous reports, 2010 and 2012 • Seeks to convey complex information to a general audience • Accompanied by further material online Evidence of climate change is unequivocal Evidence that the Earth’s climate continues to warm is unequivocal. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that it is extremely likely that the dominant cause of recent warming is human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and not natural climate variability. Carbon dioxide emissions Changes in the global climate system Global mean temperature has risen by 0.85˚C from 1880 to 2012. The amount of heat stored in the global oceans has risen, and global mean sea level has increased 225 mm from 1880 to 2012. 1. With regional variation (almost all glaciers worldwide losing mass but some gaining) but overall net loss. 2. With regional variation (large loss in the Arctic, small net gain in the Antarctic) but overall net loss. Evidence of climate change is unequivocal Warming of the world’s oceans accounts for more than 90% of additional energy accumulated from the enhanced greenhouse effect. Ocean heat content Sea level Warming trends Australia’s climate has warmed, and the frequency of extreme weather has changed, with more extreme heat and less extreme cold. Annual mean temperature changes Sea-surface and surface air temperature Distribution of monthly temperatures We are setting more temperature records Number of coldest on records Number of hottest on records 1914 - 1923 1924 - 1933 1934 - 1943 1944 - 1953 1954 - 1963 1964 - 1973 1974 - 1983 1984 - 1993 1994 - 2003 2004 - 2013 4.6 2.3 0 2.3 4.6 The frequency of cold records has declined The frequency of hot records has increased dramatically since 1900 Exceptional heat is becoming more frequent Number of days when the national temperature was in the hottest (99th) percentile Summer heatwaves Black Saturday 2009 heatwave Record-breaking heatwave across southeastern Australia Maximum temperatures – 27 Jan – 8 Feb 2009 January 2013 heatwave Over 70% of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C Maximum temperatures – first half of Jan 2013 2013, a year of heatwaves Australian Daily Mean Temperature Anomalies for 2013 5.00 Temperature Anomalies (C) 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 -4.00 -5.00 th percentile for average temperature: DaysFeb> 99Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan 1911-1950: 20 days 2013: 23 days Nov Dec Increased rainfall? Rainfall averaged across Australia has slightly increased since 1900, with the largest increases in the northwest since 1970. Increased rainfall? Northern wet season (Oct-Apr) rainfall deciles since 1995-96 Drying across the south Rainfall has declined since 1970 in the southwest, dominated by reduced winter rainfall. Autumn and early winter rainfall has mostly been below average in the southeast since 1990. Drying across the south Southern wet season (Apr-Nov) rainfall deciles since 1996 300 Winter Rainfall Anomaly - Southwestern Australia 250 Rainfall Anomaly (mm) 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 More fire weather There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of Australia since the 1970s. More fire weather, a longer fire season Forest fire danger index (FFDI) Trends 1973-2010 Projections for Australia Some future warming is now certain Temperature (Celsius) Historical Global-mean temperature RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 Emissions scenarios make little difference to 2050 Year Australian climate projections for 2100 rainfallrainfall change April to September Annualtemperature temperature change RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 Low emissions High emissions Low emissions High emissions Temperature change in degrees for 2081–2100 with respect to 1986–2005 Percentage rainfall change for 2081–2100 with respect to 1986–2005 Projections of Australian annual temperature RCP4.5 projected annual temperature 5 Temperature Anomaly Observed annual temperature in white 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Year 2030 2050 2070 2090 Small shifts, but potential change in climate zones Wimmera Climatological rainfall map based on around 2 degrees of warming and more than 20% drier Central Victoria Small shifts, but potential change in climate zones Central Darling Climatological rainfall map based on around 2 degrees of warming and more than 20% drier Wimmera Thank you …