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Changing Earth’s Climate The Worst Crime Against All Humanity The climate crime is much worse than ecological debt. It is the worst injustice ever and it is NOW. It is the crime of all time. Part One What is the evidence? Part Two How long have governments known? P A R T O N E The Right to Survive has already been denied! E V I D E N C E The Crime of All Time Today’s committed global warming and climate change is the worst ever crime against humanity — and against all Humanity. The Crime of All Time Committed global warming? Emitting global warming greenhouse gases is like shooting burning arrows at the future. 17/11/10 Evidence for the Crime of All Time What is “committed” temperature increase? Due to the inertia of the planetary climate system, it takes about 30 years for emissions to register as a surface temperature increase. Today’s global temperature increase is committed to double - even without any more emissions. Global average temperature Doubled temperature increase 30 year heat lag Global CO2 emissions rapidly cut to virtual zero 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year 2200 Adapted from IPCC Evidence for the Crime of All Time The temperature increase we must look at to assess impacts is at least 1.6ºC and that is a terrible crime. Today’s 1.6ºC absolute commitment Today’s 0.8ºC temperature increase Evidence for the Crime of All Time Staying on today’s business as usual scenario, and with no new UN treaty, where are we headed? 1.5ºC by 2030 2.0ºC by 2050 Global emissions are tracking the IPCC’s worst case scenario (A1F1). IPCC 2007 global average temperature increase from pre-industrial Evidence for the Crime of All Time The Crime of the Industrialized Nations UNFCCC Website There is overwhelming scientific evidence, as shown in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that climate change will threaten the very survival of the most vulnerable populations. Evidence for the Crime of All Time From the UN FCCC Secretariat website A question of degree Even the minimum predicted shifts in climate for the 21st century are likely to be significant and disruptive. Predictions of future climate impacts show that the consequences could vary from disruptive to catastrophic. Evidence for the Crime of All Time A world under stress A future of more severe storms and floods along the world's increasingly crowded coastlines is likely, and will be a bad combination even under the minimum scenarios forecast. Environmental damage – such as overgrazed rangeland, deforested mountainsides, and denuded agricultural soils – means that nature will be more vulnerable than previously to changes in climate. Yet those to suffer most from climate change will be in the developing world. They have fewer resources for coping with storms, with floods, with droughts, with disease outbreaks, and with disruptions to food and water supplies. — UNFCCC Secretariat Evidence for the Crime of All Time Food security ... a general reduction is expected in potential crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions. Mid-continental areas – such as the United States' "grain belt" and vast areas of Asia – are likely to dry. Where dry-land agriculture relies solely on rain, as in sub-Saharan Africa, yields would decrease dramatically in regions, even with minimal increases in temperature. Such changes could cause disruptions in food supply in a world that is already afflicted with food shortages and famines. Salt-water intrusion from rising sea levels will reduce the quality and quantity of freshwater supplies. This is a major concern, since billions of people already lack access to freshwater. Higher ocean levels already are contaminating underground water sources.... — UNFCCC Secretariat The Crime of All Time Policy Implications of Finding that Climate Change is a Crime Against Humanity and Against All Humanity Force industrialized nations to act Demand Accountability It’s his planet and his climate. The Crime of All Time The Best Hope to Get Industrialized Nations to Stop Catastrophic Greenhouse Pollution Climate-vulnerable developing nations could use international law to break the current deadlock in the intergovernmental negotiations on climate change by taking industrialised nations to court. – Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development, 4 October 2010 The Crime of All Time We demand the creation of an International Tribunal of Climate and Environmental Justice that has the legally binding capacity to prevent, judge, and punish those states, companies, and individuals that pollute and cause climate change by their actions or omissions. — 2010 Cochabamba People’s Climate Agreement International Climate Justice Tribunal Evidence for the Crime of All Time Estimated deaths due to climate change, in 2000 IPCC 2007 The trend of the climate change killing is already established by people already dying Committed global warming today is double 2000 global warming. 2C is three times 2000 global warming. Evidence for the Crime of All Time All the deaths, deprivation and suffering of the developing world are being MULTIPLIED The Earth’s climate supports our water and food supplies. The huge number of people – especially children – suffering and dying from malnutrition, starvation, disease, lack of water, and “natural” disasters is right now being multiplied. Climate change multiplies all of these impacts. Changing the climate multiplies all of the human rights abuses and deprivations of the economically oppressed and vulnerable. The Crime Of All Time Children (in all regions) are most vulnerable to all impacts of global climate change. The Crime of All Time Changing the Planet’s Climate Decreases water security Decreases food security Decreases health security Decreases civil security And diminishes the future of humanity The Crime of All Time The Crime of the Industrialized Nations This presentations relies solely on government reports like the IPCC assessments as documented proof of the worst ever Crime Against Humanity The Crime of the Industrialized Nations Today’s Great Offense Against Humanity Third World debt $2.9 trillion Daily payments $100 million (World Bank 2008) GDP This situation is long-standing common knowledge. Child mortality Greenhouse gas emissions The Crime of the Industrialized Nations Industrialized Nations: 1. refuse to acknowledge that we are “beyond dangerous climate interference” (1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), or that a state of planetary emergency exists 2. aim for a catastrophic global average temperature increase target of 2.0ºC 3. have known for at least a decade the science of catastrophic global climate change and that a 2.0ºC temperature increase (indeed less) is catastrophic for the Global South 4. have ignored the impacts on water, food, and health security in the vulnerable Global South 5. ignore the greatest disastrous and catastrophic dangers from global climate change for the survival of human populations and all future generations 6. assume that over the short term, they will gain from global warming of up to 2.0ºC while the Global South will suffer disastrous losses 7. have done nothing to mitigate the massive inevitable losses of the most climate change vulnerable populations, numbering over a billion The Crime of the Industrialized Nations The 2ºC “target” is a thoroughly documented crime against humanity. In 2009, against the submissions of the most climate change vulnerable nations, the industrialized nations stuck to their longstanding 2.0ºC temperature increase policy target, by means of the Copenhagen Accord. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity From the EU Climate Change Site 2010 The EU 2⁰C climate policy adopted in 1996… a level that scientists say will avoid the worst consequences …. But even below this level climate change will have significant impacts. Many poor developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change but also have the least resources to cope with it. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 1990 UN Position for Climate Safety is 1.0ºC 1990 WMO/ICSU/UNEP Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG) analysis of "targets and indicators" for climate change `(IPCC precursor) Maximum 1.0ºC increase above pre-industrial levels Increases beyond this may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage. 2.0ºC too dangerous … increase above pre-industrial entails unacceptably high ecosystem and societal risk. … we must expect that in many places in the world there will be a crisis in the world food supply and ecosystems and the corresponding disruption of socio-economic systems and a loss of several islands. Vellinga, P. and R. Swart (1990), "The Greenhouse Marathon: Proposal for a Global Strategy", pp. 129-134 in J. Jager and H.L.Ferguson (Eds) (1990), Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Proceedings of the Second World Climate Conference, World Meteorological Organisation. Cambridge University Press. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity European Union and the 2ºC Target The EU has acknowledged that its 1996 2.0ºC policy target is not safe and is catastrophic to the most climate change vulnerable populations. 2004 EU … recognizes that 2°C would already imply significant impacts on ecosystems and water resources.... — 2610th Council Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October 2004 2008 EU The 2.0ºC limit cannot be considered as safe, as severe impacts are likely to occur increasingly as the global mean temperature rise approaches 2.0ºC above pre-industrial levels. Changes in extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events will largely shape future climate change impacts. In particular significant impacts are expected on species, ecosystems, water resources, low latitude agriculture and small island states. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Security Not Protected by the 2ºC Limit Food security is not acknowledged as a climate change danger in climate change policy making. For example, it is not listed under the IPCC Climate Science “Reasons for Concern” that determine policy. But it is one of the dangers interfering with the climate system specified in the 1992 UNFCCC ! 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The IPCC has never stated that 2⁰C is safe - or dangerous. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Climate change is already increasing extreme weather impacts at today’s +0.8ºC! Commitment is 1.6ºC. Policy is 2ºC. Extreme weather (heat waves, droughts, floods) is the most damaging impact to both agriculture and human health. It is now more likely than not that human activity has contributed to observed increases in heat waves, intense precipitation events, and the intensity of tropical cyclones. — IPCC Reasons For Concern, 2007 2ºC 1.5ºC Risk of Extreme Weather Events 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Heat Waves and Droughts are Already Increasing ! • More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. • Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation has contributed to changes in drought. • • The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increases of atmospheric water vapour. • Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. .. heat waves have become more frequent. Commitment is 1.6ºC. Policy is 2ºC. — IPCC 2007 The 2007 IPCC Assessment 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Security in the Tropics at +1.0ºC Rice Corn 17/11/10 IPCC 2007 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Global average temperature increase from pre-industrial Today’s committed global average temperature increase according to climate science. Committed global average temperature increase by policy target of industrialized nations. Committed temperature increase from combined pledges (Carbon Tracker). Adapted from IPCC 2007 IPCC Chart of Impacts (impacts start where the text starts) 17/11/10 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Water Security Decreasing water availability and increasing drought 2 in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes. Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity FOOD SECURITY Increased coral bleaching. Most corals bleached. Complex localized negative impacts on Smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishers. This is almost all the food production in the most vulnerable regions! Tendency for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes. Tendency for some cereal productivity to increase at mid-and high latitudes. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity CLIMATE DEATHS CLIMATE REFUGEES Increased damage from floods and storms. Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Increasing burden from • malnutrition • diarrheal disease • cardio-respiratory problems • infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from • heat waves • floods • droughts Today Increased morbidity and mortality from: • • • • • • • • • malnutrition diarrheal disease cardio-respiratory infectious diseases heat waves floods droughts floods storms Less water availability Increasing drought Combined cumulative toll of human suffering and death in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year Less cereal productivity in low latitudes Less food from smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishers 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Populations Affected by Losses of Food and Water Global temperature change from pre-industrial Today 250 Million 1.2 Billion 80 Million 20% GDP IPCC 2007 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 600 Million 1 Billion 180 Million 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity According to the IPCC’s highly conservative figures, at a 2ºC global average temperature increase, an additional 1.5 billion people will be deprived of food and water – almost all of them in the developing nations. Terrible though they are, for many reasons these IPCC estimates of regional climate change mortalities are not underestimates. They do not account for the additive effect of the main causes of increased mortality from increasing malnutrition and infections. The climate crop models on which estimates of death from malnutrition are based do not include about half of the adverse effects of global climate change on agriculture. The very large impact of extreme weather events on both agriculture and human health is not yet captured in the computer models. IPCC 2007 on Food Security 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity World Food Decline at +3.0⁰C, +1.5ºC for Developing Regions Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1.5-3.5⁰C depending on the crop. At lower latitudes and especially dry and tropical regions crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases 1.5-2.5°C. Globally the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1.5-3.5°C but above this it is projected to decrease. [This means a reduction of global food output above the global average temperature increase of 3°C or less.] — IPCC (2007), Food, fibre and forest products, Policymakers Summary 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Great Increase in the World Drought Severity Index from 1900 to 2005 Palmer Drought Severity Index IPCC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Increase in the Frequency of Dry Days by 2100 IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Suitability for Rain-fed Crops Dark green shows the world’s best agricultural regions. [The best agricultural regions of the world coincide with the trend in the greatest frequency of dry days.] IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The very best agricultural regions of the world are dried up by changing the climate. This will put world food prices into a continuously rising trend which will be devastating for poor nations and poor people of all nations. This alone will cause mass unremitting starvations in Africa which in this situation will not get relief from food aid. (Authors comment) 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 17/11/10 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Security 80% of world’s crops are grown by rain-fed agriculture. World food security is disastrous at +2ºC. At +3ºC, 50% losses in the most climate change vulnerable regions of the developing world. Climate Change Crop Model Results IPCC 2007 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Global Temperature Increase of 2.0ºC Disastrous to Agriculture World Bank 2008 IPCC data 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Loss for Developing Nations at +1.5ºC Many studies have confirmed key dynamics of previous regional and global projections. These projections indicate potentially large negative impacts in developing regions, but only small changes in developed regions. For global cereal production, crop yield or Net Primary Productivity (NPP), is threatened at +1.5°C local temperature. Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of from up to 1.5ºC depending on the crop. At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases from 1.5ºC which would increase the risk of hunger. (In addition) Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Loss The reduction in crop yields will be considerably higher than the IPCC estimates because about half of the adverse impacts are not reflected by climate crop models. In particular this includes the impact of extreme weather events and the toxic effect of increase in ground-level ozone on green plants and crops. Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local crop production negatively especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. Most studies on global agriculture have not yet incorporated a number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events or the spread of pests and diseases. In addition, they have not considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation. IPCC 2007 IPCC 2007 Fresh water security By mid-century (2.0⁰C) annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water-stressed areas. Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives. This means that at 2⁰C half the world`s population would b e deprived of adequate reliable fresh water supplies. (Authors comment) IPCC 2007 on Health Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Weighing the Health Impacts Studies in temperate areas have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits. Overall it is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures worldwide, especially in developing countries. IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Impacts Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as storms, floods, droughts, and cyclones would adversely impact human health through a variety of pathways. These natural hazards can cause direct loss of life and injury and can affect health indirectly through loss of shelter, population displacement, contamination of water supplies, loss of food production (leading to hunger and malnutrition), increased risk of infectious disease epidemics (including diarrhoeal and respiratory disease), and damage to infrastructure for provision of health services. Cyclone increase would be devastating. Health impacts associated with population displacement resulting from natural disasters or environmental degradation are substantial. IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Impacts Increasing Malaria Other Deadly Tropical Diseases Transmitted Infections. A range of mathematical models indicate, with high consistency, that climate change scenarios over the coming century would cause a net increase in the proportion of the world's population living in regions of potential transmission of malaria and dengue. A change in climatic conditions will increase the incidence of various types of water- and food-borne infectious diseases. IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Impacts Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity, through: • increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development; • increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; • the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease; • the increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone related to climate change; and, • the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. Studies in temperate areas have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits. Overall these benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures worldwide, especially in developing countries. IPCC 2007 A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity Continuing global greenhouse gas pollution is the worst imaginable crime against humanity The now inevitable increasing global warming and climate change will accelerate today’s high death rate from starvation and infections amongst the developing world populations, who are most vulnerable to climate change and the most innocent in causing climate change. A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity Risks after 2100 are Excluded Why only to 2100? Climate change assessments and policy only consider the impacts up to the year 2100, ignoring impacts to all future generations. 2100 A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity Even cutting carbon emissions to virtually zero, the global warming is set to double and last thousands of years! From IPCC 2001 1000’s of years 2.0ºC 1.0ºC Today Temperature ZERO CARBON CO2 emissions 1000 years A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity Global food production declines at 3°C (or sooner) The 2007 IPCC assessment puts an absolute upper limit on crop tolerance to regional temperature increases of 3.5ºC (from preindustrial), which is equivalent to a maximum 3°C global average increase. Declines in crop yields from climate change are in practice irreversible. So-called adaptation in the best of situations can only delay declines by a few years. This is shown by IPCC 2007 model results with adaptation. Part Two How long have the governments of industrialized nations known of the inevitable terrible calamitous impacts to the most climate change vulnerable populations and to all future generations ? Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Since 1990! Through the IPCC assessments, which are examined and approved by governments, these dangers have been known and acknowledged by industrialized nations since 1990-1995. The crime of all time… The Crime of All Time Since 1990 The IPCC record shows that in the 1990 assessments and all subsequent assessments, the industrialized nations have known of the catastrophic impacts to the most vulnerable populations and their economies. Since 1990 these industrialized nations have assumed that they were not vulnerable to economic losses. This particularly relates to food security. Note: it is now clear that food security is vulnerable in all regions. The Crime of All Time 2⁰C Food Losses for Developing World The 1990 assessment and all subsequent assessments found that low latitude tropical and arid regions would lose out on food security with declining crop yields at minimum temperature increases of 1 to 2⁰C, while the northern hemisphere temperate regions would not lose and could gain from an increase in crop yield, up to towards the end of the 21st century. The Crime of All Time All Necessary Information is Documented in the first IPCC 1990 Assessment According to the first IPCC assessment in 1990, practically everything was known to direct policy making so as to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts on the huge populations of the most climate change vulnerable people living in the developing nations, and who still are more vulnerable because of economic deprivations and lack of social services. In every succeeding IPCC assessment, the amount of research documentation has increased enormously, and this has served to confirm the conclusions and judgments of the 1990 IPCC assessment. The same projection of the loss of food security for the most climate change vulnerable regions at +1-2⁰C is in the 1990 and the 2007 assessments. The Crime of All Time IPCC 1990 1st assessment That global average temperature increases follow the business as usual fossil fuel economy has been known since 1990. For the business as usual best and high estimates, these 1990 projections are identical to the IPCC 2007 business as usual projections. IPCC 1990 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 1990 (1st Assessment) The impacts will be felt most severely in regions already under stress, mainly the developing countries. The most vulnerable human settlements are those especially exposed to natural hazards, e.g., coastal or river flooding, severe drought, landslides, severe wind storms and tropical cyclones. There may be severe effects in some regions, particularly decline in production in regions of high present-day vulnerability that are least able to adjust. They are most vulnerable to the adverse consequences of climate change because of limited access to the necessary information, infrastructure, and human and financial resources. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Impacts on Food at +1-2.0ºC IPCC 1990 1st Assessment (Same as IPCC 2007) The frequency and extent of territory over which losses of agricultural output could result from heat stress particularly in tropical regions is likely to increase significantly. The apparently small increases in mean annual temperatures in tropical regions to 2°C could sufficiently increase heat stress on crops such as wheat that these are no longer suited to such areas. In some areas, under the assumed scenario of a 1°C to 2°C temperature increase, coupled with a 10% reduction in precipitation, a 40-70% reduction in annual runoff could occur. Regions such as Southeast Asia, that are dependent on unregulated river systems, are particularly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological change. Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Impacts on Food IPCC 1990 (1st Assessment) Over all 63% of the land area of developing countries is climatically suited to rain fed agriculture. Any further curtailment potential owing to changes of climate could severely drain the ability of many developing regions to feed their population. There is a distinct possibility that, as a result of high rates of evapotranspiration, some regions in the tropics and subtropics could be characterised by a higher frequency of drought, or a similar frequency of more intense drought than at present. Changes in the risk and intensity of drought, especially in currently droughtprone regions, represent potentially the most serious impact of climatic change on agriculture both at the global and the regional level. The socioeconomic consequences of impacts will be significant, especially for those regions of the globe where societies and related economies are dependent on natural terrestrial ecosystems for their welfare. Changes in the availability of food, fuel, medicine, construction materials and income are possible as these ecosystems are changed. Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity — IPCC 1990 1st Assessment There is a possibility that potential productivity of high and mid latitudes may increase because of a prolonged growing season, but it is not likely to open up large new areas for production and it will be mainly confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns of agricultural trade could be altered by decreased cereal production in some of the currently high-production areas, such as Western Europe, southern US, parts of South America and Western Australia. With respect to southern US and Western Australia this has been confirmed by recent studies. (Authors comment) Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Impacts — IPCC 1990 (1st Assessment) The most vulnerable populations are in developing countries, in the lower income groups, residents of coastal lowlands and islands, populations in semi-arid grasslands, and the urban poor in squatter settlements, slums and shanty towns, especially in megacities. Major health impacts are possible, especially in large urban areas, owing to changes in availability of water and food and increased health problems due to heat stress spreading of infections. Changes in precipitation and temperature could radically alter the patterns of vector-borne and viral diseases by shifting them to higher latitudes, thus putting large populations at risk. In coastal lowlands such as in Bangladesh, China and Egypt, as well as in small island nations, inundation due to sea-level rise and storm surges could lead to significant movements of people. As similar events have in the past, these changes could initiate large migrations of people, leading over a number of years to severe disruptions of settlement patterns and social instability in some areas. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 1995 FAMINE FOR GLOBAL SOUTH Increased risk of hunger and famine in some locations; many of the world’s poorest people — particularly those living in subtropical and tropical areas and dependent on isolated agricultural systems in semiarid and arid regions — are most at risk of increased hunger. Many of these at-risk populations are found in sub-Saharan Africa; south, east and southeast Asia; and tropical areas of Latin America, as well as some Pacific island nations. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 1.5ºC ... there is high confidence that developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. Some population groups in developed countries are also highly vulnerable even to a warming of less than 2ºC. There is high confidence that warming of above 1.5ºC would include key negative impacts in some regions of the world, and pose new and significant threats to certain highly vulnerable population groups in other regions. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 Health Climate change is likely to have wideranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 Health Overall, the adverse health impacts of climate change will be greatest in vulnerable lower income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Many vector-, food-, and water-borne infectious diseases are known to be sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. From results of most predictive model studies, there would be a net increase in the geographic range of potential transmission of malaria and dengue-two vector-borne infections each of which currently impinge on 40-50% of the world population. Within their present ranges, these and many other infectious diseases would tend to increase in incidence and seasonality. A reduction in crop yields and food production because of climate change in some regions, particularly in the tropics, will predispose food-insecure populations to malnutrition, leading to impaired child development and decreased adult activity. Extensive experience makes clear that any increase in flooding will increase the risk of drowning, diarrhoeal and respiratory diseases, and, in developing countries, hunger and malnutrition. Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2001 Food Security IPCC Assessments indicate that yields of crops in tropical locations would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature, because such crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance and dryland/rainfed agriculture predominate. Where there is also a large decrease in rainfall, tropical crop yields would be even more adversely affected. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 Food Security Changes in food supply resulting from climate change could affect the nutrition and health of the poor in some regions of the world. .. the risk of reduced food yields is greatest in developing countries—where 790 million people are estimated to be undernourished at present. Populations in isolated areas with poor access to markets will be particularly vulnerable to local decreases or disruptions in food supply. Undernourishment is a fundamental cause of stunted physical and intellectual development in children, low productivity in adults, and susceptibility to infectious disease. Climate change would increase the number of undernourished people in the developing world, particularly in the tropics. Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 Food Security Increasing (and different) weeds, pests and plant diseases cause increasingly heavy losses to food production especially in developing regions Studies suggest that temperature increases may extend the geographic range of some insect pests currently limited by temperature. Most agricultural diseases have greater potential to reach severe levels under warmer conditions. 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Africa Increasing diseases, infections, water deprivation, and starvation. Human Health: Human health is predicted to be adversely affected by projected climate change. Temperature rises will extend the habitats of vectors of diseases such as malaria. Droughts and flooding, where sanitary infrastructure is inadequate, will result in increased frequency of epidemics and enteric diseases. More frequent outbreaks of Rift Valley fever could result from increased rainfall. Increased temperatures of coastal waters could aggravate cholera epidemics in coastal areas. Water: Africa is the continent with the lowest conversion factor of precipitation to runoff, averaging 15%.. Current trends in major river basins indicate a decrease in runoff of about 17% over the past decade. Reservoir storage shows marked sensitivity to variations in runoff and periods of drought. Lake storage and major dams have reached critically low levels. Model results indicate that global warming will increase the frequency of such low storage episodes. Food Security: There is wide consensus that climate change, through increased extremes, will worsen food security in Africa. The continent already experiences a major deficit in food production in many areas, and potential declines in soil moisture will be an added burden. IPCC 2001 The Crime Of All Time At 1.6ºC. The evidence amounting since 1990 is definitive. Huge populations of the most climate change vulnerable are already condemned to massive unprecedented human suffering and loss of life from heat waves, floods, drought, lack of water, lack of food, famine, increased tropical diseases and increased gastrointestinal infectionswhich will impact on these populations together. Today the greatest crime against humanity ever has been committed. The Crime Of All Time At 2.0ºC The climate policy of the industrialized nations has been to allow the global temperature to rise by 2.0ºC ever since 1996 - now reinforced by the 2009 Copenhagen Accord. This condemns unprecedented unimaginable extents and rates of suffering and death, amounting to a policy of virtual extermination of the Global South. It also condemns the Global North to face declining yields of food crops from extremes of heat and weather - which will never end. Changing the global climate beyond long known danger limits by constant greenhouse gas pollution is the worst possible crime against humanity and all future generations.