Download IPCC (2007) - climate crime index

Changing Earth’s
Climate
The Worst Crime
Against
All
Humanity
The climate crime is much
worse than ecological debt.
It is the worst injustice ever
and it is
NOW.
It is the crime
of all time.
Part One
What is the evidence?
Part Two
How long have governments
known?
P
A
R
T
O
N
E
The Right to
Survive
has already been denied!
E
V
I
D
E
N
C
E
The Crime of All Time
Today’s committed global warming
and climate change is the worst ever
crime against humanity —
and against all Humanity.
The Crime of All Time
Committed global warming?
Emitting global warming
greenhouse gases
is like shooting
burning arrows
at the future.
17/11/10
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
What is “committed” temperature increase?
Due to the inertia of the planetary climate system, it takes about
30 years for emissions to register as a surface temperature
increase.
Today’s global temperature increase is committed to double - even
without any more emissions.
Global average
temperature
Doubled
temperature
increase
30 year
heat lag
Global CO2 emissions
rapidly cut to virtual zero
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080 2100
Year
2200
Adapted from IPCC
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
The temperature increase we must look at
to assess impacts is at least 1.6ºC
and that is a terrible crime.
Today’s 1.6ºC
absolute
commitment
Today’s 0.8ºC
temperature
increase
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
Staying on today’s business as usual scenario, and
with no new UN treaty, where are we headed?
1.5ºC by 2030
2.0ºC by 2050
Global
emissions are
tracking the
IPCC’s worst
case scenario
(A1F1).
IPCC 2007
global average temperature increase
from pre-industrial
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
The Crime of the Industrialized Nations
UNFCCC Website
There is overwhelming scientific
evidence, as shown in the
Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), that
climate change will threaten the
very survival of the most
vulnerable populations.
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
From the UN FCCC Secretariat website
A question of degree
Even the minimum predicted shifts in
climate for the 21st century are likely
to be significant and disruptive.
Predictions of future climate impacts
show that the consequences could
vary from disruptive to catastrophic.
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
A world under stress
A future of more severe storms and floods along the
world's increasingly crowded coastlines is likely, and
will be a bad combination even under the minimum
scenarios forecast.
Environmental damage – such as overgrazed
rangeland, deforested mountainsides, and denuded
agricultural soils – means that nature will be more
vulnerable than previously to changes in climate.
Yet those to suffer most from climate change will be
in the developing world. They have fewer
resources for coping with storms, with floods, with
droughts, with disease outbreaks, and with
disruptions to food and water supplies.
— UNFCCC Secretariat
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
Food security
... a general reduction is expected in potential crop yields
in most tropical and sub-tropical regions.
Mid-continental areas – such as the United States' "grain belt"
and vast areas of Asia – are likely to dry.
Where dry-land agriculture relies solely on rain, as in
sub-Saharan Africa, yields would decrease dramatically in
regions, even with minimal increases in temperature.
Such changes could cause disruptions in food supply in a world
that is already afflicted with food shortages and famines.
Salt-water intrusion from rising sea levels will reduce the quality
and quantity of freshwater supplies. This is a major concern,
since billions of people already lack access to freshwater. Higher
ocean levels already are contaminating underground water
sources....
— UNFCCC Secretariat
The Crime of All Time
Policy Implications of Finding that Climate Change is a Crime
Against Humanity and Against All Humanity
Force industrialized nations to act
Demand Accountability
It’s his planet and his climate.
The Crime of All Time
The Best Hope to Get Industrialized Nations
to Stop Catastrophic Greenhouse Pollution
Climate-vulnerable developing nations could
use international law to break the current
deadlock in the intergovernmental negotiations
on climate change by taking industrialised
nations to court.
– Foundation for International Environmental
Law and Development, 4 October 2010
The Crime of All Time
We demand the creation of an International
Tribunal of Climate and Environmental
Justice that has the legally binding capacity
to prevent, judge, and punish those states,
companies, and individuals that pollute and
cause climate change by their actions or
omissions.
— 2010 Cochabamba People’s Climate Agreement
International Climate Justice Tribunal
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
Estimated
deaths due to
climate change,
in 2000 IPCC 2007
The trend of the climate change killing
is already established by people already dying
Committed global warming today
is double 2000 global warming.
2C is three times 2000 global warming.
Evidence for the Crime of All Time
All the deaths, deprivation and
suffering of the developing world
are being
MULTIPLIED
The Earth’s climate supports our water and food
supplies. The huge number of people – especially
children – suffering and dying from malnutrition,
starvation, disease, lack of water, and “natural”
disasters is right now being multiplied.
Climate change multiplies all of these impacts.
Changing the climate multiplies all of the human
rights abuses and deprivations of the economically
oppressed and vulnerable.
The Crime Of All Time
Children (in all regions) are most
vulnerable to all impacts of
global climate change.
The Crime of All Time
Changing the Planet’s
Climate
Decreases water security
Decreases food security
Decreases health security
Decreases civil security
And diminishes the future
of humanity
The Crime of
All Time
The Crime of the Industrialized Nations
This presentations relies solely on
government reports
like the IPCC assessments
as documented proof
of the worst ever
Crime
Against Humanity
The Crime of the Industrialized Nations
Today’s Great Offense Against
Humanity
Third World debt
$2.9 trillion
Daily payments
$100 million
(World Bank 2008)
GDP
This situation is
long-standing
common
knowledge.
Child mortality
Greenhouse gas
emissions
The Crime of the Industrialized Nations
Industrialized Nations:
1. refuse to acknowledge that we are “beyond dangerous climate
interference” (1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change),
or that a state of planetary emergency exists
2. aim for a catastrophic global average temperature increase target of
2.0ºC
3. have known for at least a decade the science of catastrophic global
climate change and that a 2.0ºC temperature increase (indeed less)
is catastrophic for the Global South
4. have ignored the impacts on water, food, and health security in the
vulnerable Global South
5. ignore the greatest disastrous and catastrophic dangers from global
climate change for the survival of human populations and all future
generations
6. assume that over the short term, they will gain from global warming
of up to 2.0ºC while the Global South will suffer disastrous losses
7. have done nothing to mitigate the massive inevitable losses of the
most climate change vulnerable populations, numbering over a billion
The Crime of the Industrialized Nations
The 2ºC “target”
is a thoroughly documented
crime against humanity.
In 2009, against the submissions of the
most climate change vulnerable nations,
the industrialized nations stuck to their
longstanding 2.0ºC temperature
increase policy target, by means of the
Copenhagen Accord.
2ºC
Worst Ever Crime
Against Humanity
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
From the EU Climate Change Site 2010
The EU 2⁰C climate policy adopted in 1996…
a level that scientists say will avoid the worst
consequences ….
But even below this level climate change will
have significant impacts.
Many poor developing countries are among the
most vulnerable to climate change but also have
the least resources to cope with it.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
1990 UN Position for Climate Safety is 1.0ºC
1990 WMO/ICSU/UNEP Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG)
analysis of "targets and indicators" for climate change `(IPCC precursor)
Maximum 1.0ºC increase above pre-industrial
levels
Increases beyond this may elicit rapid, unpredictable and
non-linear responses that could lead to extensive
ecosystem damage.
2.0ºC too dangerous
… increase above pre-industrial entails unacceptably high
ecosystem and societal risk.
… we must expect that in many places in the world there
will be a crisis in the world food supply and ecosystems
and the corresponding disruption of socio-economic
systems and a loss of several islands.
Vellinga, P. and R. Swart (1990), "The Greenhouse Marathon: Proposal for a Global Strategy", pp. 129-134 in J.
Jager and H.L.Ferguson (Eds) (1990), Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Proceedings of the Second
World Climate Conference, World Meteorological Organisation. Cambridge University Press.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
European Union and the 2ºC Target
The EU has acknowledged that its 1996 2.0ºC
policy target is not safe and is catastrophic to the
most climate change vulnerable populations.
2004 EU
… recognizes that 2°C would already imply significant impacts
on ecosystems and water resources....
— 2610th Council Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October 2004
2008 EU
The 2.0ºC limit cannot be considered as safe, as severe
impacts are likely to occur increasingly as the global mean
temperature rise approaches 2.0ºC above pre-industrial levels.
Changes in extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and
extreme precipitation events will largely shape future climate
change impacts. In particular significant impacts are expected
on species, ecosystems, water resources, low latitude
agriculture and small island states.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Food Security Not Protected
by the 2ºC Limit
Food security is not acknowledged as a
climate change danger in climate
change policy making.
For example, it is not listed under the
IPCC Climate Science “Reasons for
Concern” that determine policy.
But it is one of the dangers interfering
with the climate system specified in the
1992 UNFCCC !
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
The IPCC has never stated that 2⁰C
is safe - or dangerous.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Climate change is already
increasing extreme weather
impacts at today’s +0.8ºC!
Commitment is 1.6ºC.
Policy is 2ºC.
Extreme weather (heat waves,
droughts, floods) is the most
damaging impact to both agriculture
and human health.
It is now more likely than not that
human activity has contributed to
observed increases in heat waves,
intense precipitation events, and the
intensity of tropical cyclones.
— IPCC Reasons For Concern, 2007
2ºC
1.5ºC
Risk of
Extreme
Weather
Events
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Heat Waves and Droughts are
Already Increasing !
• More intense and longer droughts have been observed over
wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and
subtropics.
• Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and
decreased precipitation has contributed to changes in drought.
•
• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased
over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed
increases of atmospheric water vapour.
• Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been
observed over the last 50 years. .. heat waves have become
more frequent.
Commitment is 1.6ºC.
Policy is 2ºC.
— IPCC 2007
The 2007 IPCC Assessment
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Food Security in the Tropics at +1.0ºC
Rice
Corn
17/11/10
IPCC 2007
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Global average temperature increase
from pre-industrial
Today’s committed global average temperature
increase according to climate science.
Committed global average temperature
increase by policy target of industrialized
nations.
Committed temperature
increase from combined
pledges (Carbon Tracker).
Adapted from IPCC 2007
IPCC Chart of Impacts
(impacts start where the text starts)
17/11/10
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Water Security
Decreasing water availability
and increasing drought
2
in the mid-latitudes and
semi arid lower latitudes.
Hundreds of millions of people
exposed to increased water stress.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
FOOD SECURITY
Increased coral bleaching.
Most corals bleached.
Complex localized
negative impacts on
Smallholders,
subsistence farmers
and fishers.
This is almost all the food
production in the most
vulnerable regions!
Tendency for
cereal productivity
to decrease
in low latitudes.
Tendency for some cereal
productivity to increase at
mid-and high latitudes.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
CLIMATE DEATHS
CLIMATE REFUGEES
Increased damage
from floods
and storms.
Millions more people
experience coastal
flooding each year.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Health
Increasing burden from
• malnutrition
• diarrheal disease
• cardio-respiratory problems
• infectious diseases
Increased morbidity
and mortality from
• heat waves
• floods
• droughts
Today
Increased morbidity and mortality from:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
malnutrition
diarrheal disease
cardio-respiratory
infectious diseases
heat waves
floods
droughts
floods
storms
Less water availability
Increasing drought
Combined
cumulative
toll of human
suffering
and death
in the mid-latitudes and
semi arid lower latitudes
Millions more people experience
coastal flooding each year
Less cereal productivity
in low latitudes
Less food from smallholders, subsistence farmers
and fishers
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Populations Affected by Losses of Food and Water
Global temperature change from pre-industrial
Today
250 Million
1.2 Billion
80 Million
20% GDP
IPCC 2007
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
600 Million
1 Billion
180 Million
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
According to the IPCC’s highly
conservative figures, at a 2ºC global
average temperature increase, an
additional 1.5 billion people will be
deprived of food and water – almost all of
them in the developing nations.
Terrible though they are, for many reasons these
IPCC estimates of regional climate change mortalities
are not underestimates.
They do not account for the additive effect of the
main causes of increased mortality from increasing
malnutrition and infections.
The climate crop models on which estimates of death
from malnutrition are based do not include about half
of the adverse effects of global climate change on
agriculture.
The very large impact of extreme weather events on
both agriculture and human health is not yet
captured in the computer models.
IPCC 2007
on
Food Security
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
World Food Decline at +3.0⁰C,
+1.5ºC for Developing Regions
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to
high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up
to 1.5-3.5⁰C depending on the crop.
At lower latitudes and especially dry and tropical regions
crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small
local temperature increases 1.5-2.5°C.
Globally the potential for food production is projected to
increase with increases in local average temperature over
a range of 1.5-3.5°C but above this it is projected to
decrease.
[This means a reduction of global food output above the global
average temperature increase of 3°C or less.]
— IPCC (2007),
Food, fibre and forest products, Policymakers Summary
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Great Increase in the World Drought
Severity Index from 1900 to 2005
Palmer Drought Severity Index
IPCC
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Increase in the Frequency of Dry Days
by 2100
IPCC 2007
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Suitability for Rain-fed Crops
Dark green shows the world’s best agricultural regions.
[The best agricultural regions of the world coincide with the trend in the
greatest frequency of dry days.]
IPCC 2007
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
The very best agricultural regions
of the world are dried up by
changing the climate.
This will put world food prices into a continuously rising trend which
will be devastating for poor nations and poor people of all nations.
This alone will cause mass unremitting starvations in Africa which in
this situation will not get relief from food aid. (Authors comment)
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
17/11/10
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Food Security
80% of world’s crops are grown by rain-fed agriculture. World
food security is disastrous at +2ºC.
At +3ºC, 50% losses in the most climate change vulnerable
regions of the developing world.
Climate Change Crop Model Results
IPCC 2007
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Global Temperature Increase of 2.0ºC
Disastrous to Agriculture
World Bank
2008 IPCC data
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Food Loss for Developing Nations at +1.5ºC
Many studies have confirmed key dynamics of previous regional
and global projections. These projections indicate potentially large
negative impacts in developing regions, but only small changes in
developed regions.
For global cereal production, crop yield or Net Primary Productivity
(NPP), is threatened at +1.5°C local temperature.
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high
latitudes for local mean temperature increases of from up to 1.5ºC
depending on the crop.
At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions,
crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local
temperature increases from 1.5ºC which would increase the risk of
hunger.
(In addition) Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are
projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in
subsistence sectors at low latitudes.
IPCC 2007
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Food Loss
The reduction in crop yields will be considerably higher than the IPCC
estimates because about half of the adverse impacts are not reflected by
climate crop models.
In particular this includes the impact of extreme weather events and the
toxic effect of increase in ground-level ozone on green plants and crops.
Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected
to affect local crop production negatively especially in
subsistence sectors at low latitudes.
Most studies on global agriculture have not yet incorporated a
number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events or
the spread of pests and diseases.
In addition, they have not considered the development of specific
practices or technologies to aid adaptation.
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
Fresh water security
By mid-century (2.0⁰C) annual average river runoff and water availability are
projected to decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the
dry tropics, some of which are presently water-stressed areas.
Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent.
Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will
augment flood risk
In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are
projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater
from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population
currently lives.
This means that at 2⁰C half the world`s population would b e deprived of adequate
reliable fresh water supplies. (Authors comment)
IPCC 2007 on Health
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Weighing the Health Impacts
Studies in temperate areas have shown that
climate change is projected to bring some
benefits.
Overall it is expected that these benefits will be
outweighed by the negative health effects of
rising temperatures worldwide, especially in
developing countries.
IPCC 2007
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Health Impacts
Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events
such as storms, floods, droughts, and cyclones would
adversely impact human health through a variety of
pathways. These natural hazards can cause direct loss of
life and injury and can affect health indirectly through loss
of shelter, population displacement, contamination of
water supplies, loss of food production (leading to hunger
and malnutrition), increased risk of infectious disease
epidemics (including diarrhoeal and respiratory disease),
and damage to infrastructure for provision of health
services. Cyclone increase would be devastating.
Health impacts associated with population displacement
resulting from natural disasters or environmental
degradation are substantial.
IPCC 2007
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Health Impacts
Increasing
Malaria
Other Deadly Tropical Diseases
Transmitted Infections.
A range of mathematical models indicate, with high
consistency, that climate change scenarios over the coming
century would cause a net increase in the proportion of the
world's population living in regions of potential transmission
of malaria and dengue.
A change in climatic conditions will increase the incidence of
various types of water- and food-borne infectious diseases.
IPCC 2007
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Health Impacts
Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect
the health status of millions of people, particularly those with
low adaptive capacity, through:
• increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with
implications for child growth and development;
• increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves,
floods, storms, fires and droughts;
• the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease;
• the increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to
higher concentrations of ground-level ozone related to climate
change; and,
• the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease
vectors.
Studies in temperate areas have shown that climate change is
projected to bring some benefits. Overall these benefits will be
outweighed by the negative health effects of rising
temperatures worldwide, especially in developing countries.
IPCC 2007
A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity
Continuing global
greenhouse gas pollution is
the worst imaginable crime
against humanity
The now inevitable increasing
global warming and climate
change will accelerate today’s
high death rate from starvation
and infections amongst the
developing world populations,
who are most vulnerable to
climate change and the most
innocent in causing climate
change.
A Crime Against the Future of
All Humanity
A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity
Risks after 2100 are Excluded
Why only to 2100?
Climate change assessments and policy only consider the
impacts up to the year 2100, ignoring impacts to all future
generations.
2100
A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity
Even cutting carbon emissions to
virtually zero,
the global warming is set to double
and last thousands of years!
From IPCC 2001
1000’s of years
2.0ºC
1.0ºC
Today
Temperature
ZERO CARBON
CO2 emissions
1000 years
A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity
Global food production
declines at 3°C (or sooner)
The 2007 IPCC assessment puts an absolute upper limit on crop
tolerance to regional temperature increases of 3.5ºC (from
preindustrial), which is equivalent to a maximum 3°C global
average increase.
Declines in crop yields from climate change are in practice
irreversible. So-called adaptation in the best of situations can only
delay declines by a few years.
This is shown by IPCC 2007 model results with adaptation.
Part Two
How long have the governments of
industrialized nations
known of the inevitable
terrible calamitous impacts
to the most climate change
vulnerable populations
and to all future generations ?
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Since 1990!
Through the IPCC assessments,
which are examined and approved
by governments, these dangers
have been known and
acknowledged by industrialized
nations since 1990-1995.
The crime of all time…
The Crime of All Time
Since 1990
The IPCC record shows that in the 1990
assessments and all subsequent
assessments, the industrialized nations
have known of the catastrophic impacts to
the most vulnerable populations and their
economies. Since 1990 these industrialized
nations have assumed that they were not
vulnerable to economic losses.
This particularly relates to food security.
Note: it is now clear that food security is
vulnerable in all regions.
The Crime of All Time
2⁰C
Food Losses for Developing World
The 1990 assessment and all subsequent assessments
found that low latitude tropical and arid regions would
lose out on food security with declining crop yields at
minimum temperature increases of 1 to 2⁰C, while the
northern hemisphere temperate regions would not lose
and could gain from an increase in crop yield, up to
towards the end of the 21st century.
The Crime of All Time
All Necessary Information is
Documented
in the first IPCC 1990 Assessment
According to the first IPCC assessment in 1990,
practically everything was known to direct policy making
so as to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts on
the huge populations of the most climate change
vulnerable people living in the developing nations, and
who still are more vulnerable because of economic
deprivations and lack of social services.
In every succeeding IPCC assessment, the amount of
research documentation has increased enormously, and
this has served to confirm the conclusions and
judgments of the 1990 IPCC assessment.
The same projection of the loss of food security for the
most climate change vulnerable regions at +1-2⁰C is in
the 1990 and the 2007 assessments.
The Crime of All Time
IPCC 1990 1st assessment
That global average temperature increases
follow the business as usual fossil fuel economy
has been known since 1990.
For the
business as
usual best and
high
estimates,
these 1990
projections are
identical to the
IPCC 2007
business as
usual
projections.
IPCC 1990
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
IPCC 1990 (1st Assessment)
The impacts will be felt most severely in regions
already under stress, mainly the developing
countries.
The most vulnerable human settlements are those
especially exposed to natural hazards, e.g., coastal
or river flooding, severe drought, landslides, severe
wind storms and tropical cyclones.
There may be severe effects in some regions,
particularly decline in production in regions of high
present-day vulnerability that are least able to
adjust.
They are most vulnerable to the adverse
consequences of climate change because of limited
access to the necessary information, infrastructure,
and human and financial resources.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Impacts on Food at +1-2.0ºC
IPCC 1990 1st Assessment
(Same as IPCC 2007)
The frequency and extent of territory over which losses
of agricultural output could result from heat stress
particularly in tropical regions is likely to increase
significantly. The apparently small increases in mean
annual temperatures in tropical regions to 2°C could
sufficiently increase heat stress on crops such as wheat
that these are no longer suited to such areas.
In some areas, under the assumed scenario of a 1°C to
2°C temperature increase, coupled with a 10%
reduction in precipitation, a 40-70% reduction in annual
runoff could occur. Regions such as Southeast Asia, that
are dependent on unregulated river systems, are
particularly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological change.
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Impacts on Food
IPCC 1990 (1st Assessment)
Over all 63% of the land area of developing countries is
climatically suited to rain fed agriculture. Any further curtailment
potential owing to changes of climate could severely drain the ability
of many developing regions to feed their population.
There is a distinct possibility that, as a result of high rates of evapotranspiration, some regions in the tropics and subtropics could be
characterised by a higher frequency of drought, or a similar
frequency of more intense drought than at present. Changes in
the risk and intensity of drought, especially in currently droughtprone regions, represent potentially the most serious impact of
climatic change on agriculture both at the global and the regional
level.
The socioeconomic consequences of impacts will be significant,
especially for those regions of the globe where societies and related
economies are dependent on natural terrestrial ecosystems for their
welfare. Changes in the availability of food, fuel, medicine,
construction materials and income are possible as these ecosystems
are changed.
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
— IPCC 1990
1st Assessment
There is a possibility that potential productivity of high and mid
latitudes may increase because of a prolonged growing season,
but it is not likely to open up large new areas for production and it
will be mainly confined to the Northern Hemisphere.
Patterns of agricultural trade could be altered by decreased cereal
production in some of the currently high-production areas, such
as Western Europe, southern US, parts of South America and
Western Australia.
With respect to southern US and Western Australia this has been
confirmed by recent studies. (Authors comment)
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Health Impacts — IPCC 1990 (1st Assessment)
The most vulnerable populations are in developing countries, in
the lower income groups, residents of coastal lowlands and
islands, populations in semi-arid grasslands, and the urban poor in
squatter settlements, slums and shanty towns, especially in
megacities.
Major health impacts are possible, especially in large urban areas, owing
to changes in availability of water and food and increased health problems
due to heat stress spreading of infections.
Changes in precipitation and temperature could radically alter the patterns
of vector-borne and viral diseases by shifting them to higher latitudes,
thus putting large populations at risk.
In coastal lowlands such as in Bangladesh, China and Egypt, as well as in
small island nations, inundation due to sea-level rise and storm surges
could lead to significant movements of people.
As similar events have in the past, these changes could initiate large
migrations of people, leading over a number of years to severe disruptions
of settlement patterns and social instability in some areas.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
IPCC
1995
FAMINE FOR GLOBAL SOUTH
Increased risk of hunger and famine
in some locations;
many of the world’s poorest people — particularly
those living in subtropical and tropical areas and
dependent on isolated agricultural systems in semiarid and arid regions — are most at risk of
increased hunger. Many of these at-risk populations
are found in sub-Saharan Africa; south, east and
southeast Asia; and tropical areas of Latin America,
as well as some Pacific island nations.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
IPCC
2001 1.5ºC
... there is high confidence that developing
countries will be more vulnerable to climate
change than developed countries.
Some population groups in developed countries
are also highly vulnerable even to a warming of
less than 2ºC.
There is high confidence that warming of above
1.5ºC would include key negative impacts in
some regions of the world, and pose new and
significant threats to certain highly vulnerable
population groups in other regions.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
IPCC
2001 Health
Climate change is likely to have wideranging and mostly adverse impacts on
human health, with significant loss of life.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
IPCC
2001
Health
Overall, the adverse health impacts of climate change will be
greatest in vulnerable lower income populations,
predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries.
Many vector-, food-, and water-borne infectious diseases are known to be
sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. From results of most predictive
model studies, there would be a net increase in the geographic range of
potential transmission of malaria and dengue-two vector-borne infections
each of which currently impinge on 40-50% of the world population. Within
their present ranges, these and many other infectious diseases would tend to
increase in incidence and seasonality.
A reduction in crop yields and food production because of climate change in
some regions, particularly in the tropics, will predispose food-insecure
populations to malnutrition, leading to impaired child development and
decreased adult activity.
Extensive experience makes clear that any increase in flooding will increase
the risk of drowning, diarrhoeal and respiratory diseases, and, in developing
countries, hunger and malnutrition.
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
2001
Food Security
IPCC
Assessments indicate that yields of crops in
tropical locations would decrease generally
with even minimal increases in temperature,
because such crops are near their maximum temperature
tolerance and dryland/rainfed agriculture predominate.
Where there is also a large decrease in
rainfall, tropical crop yields would be even
more adversely affected.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
IPCC 2001
Food Security
Changes in food supply resulting from climate change could affect
the nutrition and health of the poor in some regions of the world.
.. the risk of reduced food yields is greatest in
developing countries—where 790 million people are
estimated to be undernourished at present.
Populations in isolated areas with poor access to markets will be
particularly vulnerable to local decreases or disruptions in food
supply.
Undernourishment is a fundamental cause of stunted physical and
intellectual development in children, low productivity in adults, and
susceptibility to infectious disease.
Climate change would increase the number of undernourished people
in the developing world, particularly in the tropics.
Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
IPCC 2001
Food Security
Increasing (and different) weeds, pests and plant
diseases cause increasingly heavy losses to
food production especially in developing regions
Studies suggest that temperature increases may extend the
geographic range of some insect pests currently limited by
temperature.
Most agricultural diseases have greater potential to reach
severe levels under warmer conditions.
2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity
Africa
Increasing
diseases, infections,
water deprivation, and starvation.
Human Health: Human health is predicted to be adversely affected by projected climate
change. Temperature rises will extend the habitats of vectors of diseases such as malaria.
Droughts and flooding, where sanitary infrastructure is inadequate, will result in increased
frequency of epidemics and enteric diseases. More frequent outbreaks of Rift Valley fever could
result from increased rainfall. Increased temperatures of coastal waters could aggravate cholera
epidemics in coastal areas.
Water: Africa is the continent with the lowest conversion factor of precipitation to runoff,
averaging 15%.. Current trends in major river basins indicate a decrease in runoff of about 17%
over the past decade. Reservoir storage shows marked sensitivity to variations in runoff and
periods of drought. Lake storage and major dams have reached critically low levels. Model results
indicate that global warming will increase the frequency of such low storage episodes.
Food Security: There is wide consensus that climate change, through increased extremes,
will worsen food security in Africa. The continent already experiences a major deficit in food
production in many areas, and potential declines in soil moisture will be an added burden.
IPCC 2001
The Crime Of All Time
At 1.6ºC.
The evidence amounting since 1990 is definitive.
Huge populations of the most climate change vulnerable are already
condemned to massive unprecedented human suffering and loss of life
from heat waves, floods, drought, lack of water, lack of food, famine,
increased tropical diseases and increased gastrointestinal infectionswhich will impact on these populations together.
Today the greatest crime against humanity ever has been committed.
The Crime Of All Time
At 2.0ºC
The climate policy of the industrialized nations has
been to allow the global temperature to rise by
2.0ºC ever since 1996 - now reinforced by the
2009 Copenhagen Accord.
This condemns unprecedented unimaginable
extents and rates of suffering and death,
amounting to a policy of virtual extermination of
the Global South.
It also condemns the Global North to face declining
yields of food crops from extremes of heat and
weather - which will never end.
Changing the global climate
beyond long known danger limits
by constant greenhouse gas pollution
is the worst possible crime
against humanity
and all future generations.