Download The Kyoto Protocol and Slovak Republic

The Kyoto Protocol and Slovak Republic
Subject: Economics of Natural Resources and Environment
Erasmus student: Peter Slusny
Home University: Masaryk University Brno
Professor: Dr. D. Skuras
Date: 18.1. 2007
Introduction
In my essay I will concern about Kyoto Protocol.
In the first part of my essay I would like to explain a Greenhouse effect, why it
came into existence, what caused it, and in sequence with why something like
Kyoto Protocol “had to” arisen.
In second part I would like to describe Kyoto Protocol as a document / treaty.
Then which states signed the agreement. And in the majority of the second part I
want to devote to describe members duties and different approaches and
possibilities how to fulfil these duties.
In the third part I will describe Slovak Republic as a member of states which
signed Kyoto agreement and how my country fulfils duties connected with
membership.
Part 1
During the last century, Earth’s temperature has risen by 0,5ºC. This global
warming is a consequence of greenhouse effect, caused by nothing else but human
activities.
I would divide the greenhouse effect into two main types: the “good” and the
“bad”. I even think there is no mid- type or sort of golden middle way – greenhouse
effect can be only good or only bad (an explanation will be given later). Earth’s
atmosphere is very similar to greenhouse glass - it is transparent to sunlight, which
warms it, but it keeps a part of both earth and sunlight’s warmth from escaping back
into free space. This effect is due to several greenhouse gases, including carbon
dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs freons) and water vapour. Without these gases and the “good” greenhouse effect,
the Earth would be very cold (different sources say different numbers, but surely it
would be deeply below zero and even oceans would be frozen) and there could be
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no life on it. Nowadays, the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are
rising as a result of human activities - that is how good (natural) greenhouse effect
becomes bad or even dangerous for Earth and people living on it. Since the
agricultural and industrial boom (more than 200 years ago), we have produced a
huge amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases: the carbon dioxide
concentration has risen by almost 30% (and is still rising by 0.4% annually),
methane levels have more than doubled (a rise of 0.6% annually) and nitrous oxide
levels are increasing as well (by 0.25% annually). All these are released primarily
when we burn fossil fuels like coal, oil, petrol, natural gas and wood, as well. The
natural way in which carbon dioxide is transferred back into oxygen is, being breath
by green plants - mainly in rain forests. In the last few years, people have burned
(and still are burning) huge areas of rain forest in the South America and central
Africa for the purpose of agricultural aims. This means there are fewer threes, and
of course, more carbon dioxide. Another ways, in which greenhouse gasses are
being produced, are, for instance, biomass burning and fertilizer use (production of
nitrous oxide), using aerosols and refrigerants containing CFCs, and photochemical
smog producing ozone (it may look like a good activity, but this ozone is the one
collecting in the lowest atmospheric regions that acts as very strong greenhouse
gas).
The “bad” form of greenhouse effect and the next rise in temperature, which is
predicted to be between 0.8 and 4.1ºC until the year 2030, are understood as
scarecrows due to their very dangerous consequences. They will be accompanied
with changes in global climate. Firstly, weather will at least change or maybe even
absolutely invert. Rains will fall rarely but in greater intensity; dry places like
deserts, for instance, will enlarge and become drier. Some areas near the coasts will
be cloudier and wetter and there will be more storms. Inland areas will have a little
more rain, but because the temperature will be higher, they will be drier. Secondly,
some glacial and surface ice and snow will melt, raising the height of world's
oceans by as much as 20 centimetres until 2030 and 65 centimetres until the end of
this century. This will cause floods in many low-lying areas on the coasts, presently
occupied by hundreds of millions of people. Thirdly, a lot of clouds will appear.
This issue is very discussed and actually it is very unsure what may happen then.
Maybe the cloud layer, by reflecting sunlight back into space, will make Earth
cooler again. But will there not appear a magical ring in which Earth will be
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spinning by firstly cooling and then warming? Or will the temperature not decrease
so much that there could be no life on the Earth?
After realizing the seriousness of the situation, civilization started doing actions
for preventing the greenhouse effect. There are many possibilities how to stop
immediately the warming. Some of them are “smaller”, mostly household activities
that everyone can join. Those are sorts of ”turn off the light when you are leaving
the room“, “recycle”, “use unleaded fuel”, “travel with a bike instead of driving a
car“, ”install solar panels on your house “ etc. The other types are much bigger,
planned by scientists’ activities. I mean, for instance, “burying” the carbon dioxide
under earth surface, pumping a huge quantity of iron and plankton in the oceans,
which would then absorb the CO2 from the air, or pumping directly the carbon
dioxide there, which in the water could become liquid. The problem is that not
every country has the financial possibilities (the costs for extracting the CO2 from
the air are really huge), or, like USA for example, the want to do so. Although
representing just 4.5% of Earth’s population, USA annually produces 25% of the
greenhouse gases released in the air. There is a Protocol composed in 1997 in Kyoto
that is signed by almost all countries in the world. It supposes them to lower all the
carbon dioxide emissions at least by 5.2% until the year 2012. Despite signing it,
USA actually does not stop any CO2 emissions, saying that it could seriously harm
its industry. Is that the right way how to stop greenhouse effect?
The greenhouse effect is a very dangerous thing, which the civilization should be no
longer toying with. When not stopped or at least rapidly reduced immediately, it can
cause great worldwide problems in the future that we are even not able to predict
yet.
Part 2
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change is an amendment to the international treaty on climate change, assigning
mandatory targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to signatory
nations.
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The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement made under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reduce
their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in
emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.
The Kyoto Protocol now covers more than 160 countries globally and over 55% of
global greenhouse gas emissions. (see picture no.1)
Picture 1. Status of agreement
At its heart, Kyoto establishes the following principles:
·
Kyoto is underwritten by governments and is governed by global legislation
enacted under the United Nations aegis
·
Governments are separated into two general categories: developed countries,
referred to as Annex 1 countries (who have accepted greenhouse gas
emission reduction obligations); and developing countries, referred to as
Non-Annex 1 countries (who have no greenhouse gas emission reduction
obligations and must submit an annual greenhouse gas inventory).
·
Any Annex 1 country that fails to meet its Kyoto target will be penalized by
having its reduction targets decreased by 30% in the next period.
·
By 2008-2012, Annex 1 countries have to reduce their greenhouse gas
emissions by an average of 5% below their 1990 levels (for many countries,
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such as the EU member states, this corresponds to some 15% below their
expected greenhouse gas emissions in 2008). While the average emissions
reduction is 5%, national targets range from 8% reductions for the European
Union to a 10% emissions increase for Iceland. Reduction targets expire in
2013.
·
Kyoto includes "flexible mechanisms" which allow Annex 1 economies to
meet their greenhouse gas targets by purchasing greenhouse gas emission
reductions from elsewhere. These can be bought either from financial
exchanges or from projects which reduce emissions in non-Annex 1
economies under the Clean Development Mechanism, or in other Annex-1
countries under the JI.
·
Only Clean Development Mechanism Executive Board-accredited Certified
Emission Reductions can be bought and sold in this manner. Under the aegis
of the UN, Kyoto established this Bonn-based Clean Development
Mechanism Executive Board to assess and approve projects (“Clean
Development Mechanism Projects”) in Non-Annex 1 economies prior to
awarding Certified Emission Reductions. (A similar scheme called “Joint
Implementation” or “JI” applies in transitional economies mainly covering
the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe).
What this means in practice is that Non-Annex 1 economies have no greenhouse
gas emission restrictions, but when a greenhouse gas emission reduction project (a
“greenhouse gas Project”) is implemented in these countries, that greenhouse gas
Project will receive Carbon Credit which can be sold to Annex 1 buyers.
The Kyoto linking mechanisms are in place for two main reasons:
·
The cost of complying with Kyoto is prohibitive for many Annex 1
countries (especially those countries, such as Japan or the Netherlands for
example, with highly efficient, low greenhouse gas polluting industries, and
high prevailing environmental standards). Kyoto therefore allows these
countries to purchase Carbon Credits instead of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions domestically; and,
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·
This is seen as a means of encouraging Non-Annex 1 developing economies
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since doing so is now economically
viable because of the sale of Carbon Credits.
All the Annex 1 economies have established Designated National Authorities to
manage their greenhouse gas portfolios under Kyoto. Countries including Japan,
Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain and many more, are
actively promoting government carbon funds and supporting multilateral carbon
funds intent on purchasing Carbon Credits from Non-Annex 1 countries. These
government organizations are working closely with their major utility, energy, oil &
gas and chemicals conglomerates to try to acquire as many greenhouse gas
Certificates as cheaply as possible.
Virtually all of the Non-Annex 1 countries have also set up their own Designated
National Authorities to manage the Kyoto process (and specifically the “Clean
Development Mechanism process” whereby these host government entities decide
which greenhouse gas Projects they do or do not wish to support for accreditation
by the Clean Development Mechanism Executive Board).
The objectives of these opposing groups are quite different. Annex 1 entities want
Carbon Credits as cheaply as possible, whilst Non-Annex 1 entities want to
maximize the value of Carbon Credits generated from their domestic greenhouse
gas Projects.
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Objectives
Picture 2
Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases.
The objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted an average global
rise in temperature of 0.8 and 4.1ºC until the year 2030 and of 1.4°C to 5.8 °C
between 1990 and 2100). Estimates indicate that even if successfully and
completely implemented, the Kyoto Protocol will reduce that increase by
somewhere between 0.02 °C and 0.28 °C by the year 2050.
Proponents also note that Kyoto is a first step as requirements to meet the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be modified until the
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objective is met, as required by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change.
The treaty was negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, opened for signature
on March 16, 1998, and closed on March 15, 1999. The agreement came into force
on February 16, 2005 following ratification by Russia on November 18, 2004. As of
December 2006, a total of 169 countries and other governmental entities have
ratified the agreement (representing over 61.6% of emissions from Annex I
countries). Notable exceptions include the United States and Australia. Other
countries, like India and China, which have ratified the protocol, are not required to
reduce carbon emissions under the present agreement despite their relatively large
populations.
According to article 25 of the protocol, it enters into force "on the ninetieth day
after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating
Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total
carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have
deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession." Of
the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on May 23, 2002 when
Iceland ratified. The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004 satisfied the
"55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective February 16, 2005.
Details of the agreement
According to a press release from the United Nations Environment Program:
"The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialized countries will
reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year
1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by
2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut). The goal is to lower
overall emissions of six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year
period of 2008-12. National targets range from 8% reductions for the European
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Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and
permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland."
It is an agreement negotiated as an amendment to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, which was adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de
Janeiro in 1992). All parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change can sign or ratify the Kyoto Protocol, while non-parties to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change cannot. The Kyoto
Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.
Most provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in
Annex I to the Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Common but differentiated responsibility
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to a set of
a "common but differentiated responsibilities." The parties agreed that
1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse
gases has originated in developed countries;
2. Per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low;
3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow
to meet their social and development needs.
In other words, China, India, and other developing countries were exempt from the
requirements of the Kyoto Protocol because they were not the main contributors to
the greenhouse gas emissions during the industrialization period that is believed to
be causing today's climate change.
However, critics of Kyoto argue that China, India, and other developing countries
will soon be the top contributors to greenhouse gases. Also, without Kyoto
restrictions on these countries, industries in developed countries will be driven
towards these non-restricted countries, thus there is no net reduction in carbon.
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Financial commitment
The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay, and
supply technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. This
was originally agreed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change.
Part 3
Table 1 Trends in emissions of greenhouse gases in the Slovak according to gases (millions tons
equivalent CO2)
Year
Gas
CO2
CH4
N2 O
F-gases
GHG*
1992
1993
1994
48.4
5.5
4.5
0.25
58.6
45.4
5.1
3.9
0.16
54.6
42.4
5.0
4.1
0.14
51.7
1995
1996
1997
CO2 equivalent (Mt)
43.8
44.4
44.7
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.2
4.2
4.3
0.15
0.08
0.11
53.4
54.0
54.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
43.6
4 .7
3.9
0.08
52.4
42.6
4 .6
3.8
0.09
51.2
40.9
4.5
3.8
0.10
49.4
43.9
4.5
4.1
0.11
52.5
41.9
4.6
3.9
0.13
50.5
* Whole aggregated emissions of greenhouse without captures (Captures- reduction of emissions of
greenhouse gases cause by activities like using of soil, changes in using of soil and wood)
Table 2 Trends in emissions of greenhouse gases in the Slovak Republic according to sectors of
economy (millions tons equivalent CO2)
sectors
1992
1993
1994
Energetic
Industry
Diluents
Agriculture
Captures
Wastes
47,41
3,34
0,00
5,87
-4,14
1,98
44,52
3,03
0,00
5,13
-4,27
1,90
41,46
3,35
0,00
4,93
-3,30
1,91
1995
1996
1997
CO2 equivalent (Mt)
42,76
43,36
43,55
3,55
3,59
3,74
0,00
0,00
0,00
5,10
4,89
4,75
-2,68
-2,40
-1,38
1,92
2,10
1,93
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1998
1999
2000
2001
41,89
4,36
0,00
4,33
-1,92
1,79
40,76
4,47
0,00
4,10
-1,62
1,82
39,40
3,90
0,00
4,13
-2,38
1,91
42,28
4,10
0,00
4,21
-5,20
1,85
Picture 3 Trend of development of GDP and emissions in Slovak Republic
Explanatory note:Purple are emissions in millions tons of CO2. Blue is GDP in milliard euro.
How you can see from graph, increase of emissions CO2, and increase of GDP is
not linear and ambition of Slovak Republic is to getting this trend. One of the
reasons of non linear increasing of GDP and emissions is decreasing carbon
intensity, caused mainly by raising of proportion of services on GDP,
modernization of industry and cause production of energy becoming more effective.
Picture4. Total emissions in Slovak Republic and prediction for next years
Explanatory notes: Datas are in millions tons of equivalent CO2. Blue columns are total emissions
of greenhouse gases. Red line is a limit estimated by Kyoto Protocol.
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Conclusion
Slovakia produces 0.2 percent of global greenhouse gases and has one of the
highest amounts of CO2 emissions per capita. The use of renewable energy sources
in the energy sector has been inadequate for many years. Now in Slovak republic
overshoot some projects e.g. with biomass on the north part of Slovakia. The
project’s objective is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (especially important
because the Slovak government is a party to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol)
and to promote the adoption of renewable energy sources. It is hoped that the
project will eventually serve as a model for other regions of Slovakia, as well as for
other countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The mitigation of climate change
could be achieved by working with local communities, regional governments and
other stakeholders.
At the end of my essay I have to write that my home country Slovak Republic will
have some problems to fulfill limits which are established by Kyoto Protocol.
But in my opinion, country like Slovak Republic can not influence anything
(influence the world climate), in comparison with United States which are not
filling conditions established by Kyoto Protocol, cause US did not ratify it yet. But
it is other topic!
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Sources:
Bibliography:
Pearce, David W. (David William), Turner, R. Kerry (1990), Economics of natural
resources and the environment
Morganstein S. (2003), The Greenhouse Effect
WWW sources:
http://wikipedia.org
http://ec.europa.eu
http://www.enviro.gov.sk
http://statistics.sk
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