Download Global megatrends - Eionet Forum

Anita Pirc Velkavrh, 24 Octobre 1016, Vienna, PLACARD foresight workshop
Global trends relevant for European environment
Anita Pirc Velkavrh
Head of Foresight and Sustainability group
Integrated assessment programme
EEA
Implications of global megatrends in the Western Balkans region: Scoping workshop
10-11 April, Ljubljana
Global megatrends
& European
environment
Challenges
Opportunities
Responses
GMT 1: Diverging global population trends
The world population may rise beyond 9.6 billion by 2050, despite the rate of growth slowing.
Most of the increase will occur in developing-world urban areas, particularly slums and
megacities.
43%
...growth of the global
population by 2050
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 2: Towards a more urban world
Urban areas in developing countries will absorb
most of the global population increase,
67%
… of the world population
will live in cities by 2050
Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision
Urban and rural population in developed and less developed world regions, 1950–2050
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 3: Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
Non-communicable diseases (e.g. obesity) now outweigh communicable diseases (e.g. malaria)
The threat of global pandemics continues.
25%
Source: IHME Global health data exchange database, 2014; WHO Global health estimates,
2014.
...of the global burden
of disease and deaths
can be attributed to
environmental causes
(mostly urban air
pollution, PM, ozone)
Source: OECD 2012.
GMT
4: / Technological
innovation is rapid and accelerating, including in the field of
SOER2015
Global megatrends /
green technology
The unprecedented pace of
technological change
provides opportunities to
reduce humanity’s impact on
the environment and reliance
on non-renewable natural
resources, while improving
lifestyles, stimulating
innovation and green growth.
Innovation, however, brings
also risks, which could be
minimised with policies.
Environment-related patent applications to the European Patent Office, 1980–2010
Source: OECD, 2014.
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 5: Continued economic growth?
World economic output has increased 25-fold since 1900
In the period 20102050, global GDP is
expected to grow by…
300%
but growth rates
are slowing as
countries become
more prosperous
Source: OECD Long-term Baseline Projections 2014.
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 6: An increasingly multipolar world
OECD share of global GDP
2000
2050
77%
42%
Regional composition of global GDP, 2000–2050
Driven by rapid structural change, large and rapidly growing working-age populations
and trade liberalisation, emerging economies are increasing their significance.
Source: OECD Long-term Baseline Projections 2014
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 7: Intensified global competition for resources
World materials use has grown 10-fold since 1900 and may double again by 2030
The geographic concentration of some reserves creates supply risks.
Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, 2010–2012
Source: European Commission 2014.
Imports from outside the EU accounted for 58 % of EU-27 consumption of metal ores and
products in 2011 and 79 % of fossil fuels.
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 8: Growing pressures on ecosystems
Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009
Source: Rulli et al., 2013.
Demand for meat, water and bioenergy is driving global competition for land resources
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
© Manuela Aldeghi, Environment & Me /EEA
GMT 9: Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
•
Recent changes in the global climate are unprecedented over millennia and will
continue.
•
Climate change is expected increasingly to threaten natural ecosystems and
biodiversity, slow economic growth, erode global food security, harm human
health and increase inequality.
•
The risks of pervasive and irreversible impacts are expected to increase. They
could, however, be reduced by further emissions abatement and adaptation
measures, building on past actions in Europe and internationally.
•
Key risks for Europe include flood events, droughts and other weather extremes
that damage ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as infrastructure and human
well-being.
GMT 10 Increasing environmental pollution
Historical trend in global agricultural demand for industrial nitrogen fertiliser, 1910–2008; and drivers of the projected
changes in demand in 2100.
Global nitrogen demand
2000
90
million
tonne
s
Source: Winiwarter et al
2100
200 ?
million
tonnes
Challenges and opportunities
Global challenges:
Food ( + 70% meat by 2050)
Good water availability
Energy (+30-40% in 20 years)
Raw materials (+100% by 2030)
Ecosystem depletion (10-40% loss by 2050)
WEF Global Risks 2016 report
Impact
failure of climate change mitigation
and adaptation
weapons of mass destruction,
Likelihood
large-scale
interstate conflict with regional
consequences
water crises
extreme weather events
large-scale
failure of climate change mitigation and
adaptation
severe energy price shock (increase or major natural catastrophes.
decrease)
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
Impacts of GMTs - Europe
Global megatrends strongly impact
Europe’s ability to meet its basic
resource needs:
• Food
• Water
• Energy
land
• Materials
• Ecosystems and their services
© NASA Earth Observatory
Europe has opportunities through
We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation
suffering.
differentand
response
options to
We’re going to do some of each. The question is what
theand
mix adapt
is going
be. The more
shape
toto
global
mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required
and the less suffering there will be.
megatrends
John Holdren (Obama’s Science Advisor)
« Living well…within the ecological limits of our
planet« THE DOUBLE CHALLANGE
Sustainability
transition
Within
environmental
limits
‘good life’
Source: UNEP 2012 - GEO5
The European environment –
state and outlook 2020
SOER 2020
Anita Pirc Velkavrh
Head of Foresight and Sustainability group
Integrated assessment programme
EEA
Implications of global megatrends in the Western Balkans region: Scoping workshop
10-11 April, Ljubljana
Factors shaping SOER 2020: policies and knowledge
Environmental acquis, 7th EAP
Env. acquis, 7th EAP, SDGs
Europe 2020 strategy
Circular, low-carbon economy transition
201
6
From mainly problem-focused knowledge
201
7
201
8
SOER
2020
To more solutions-oriented knowledge
SOER 2020 report: overall structure
Synthesis report = 1 + 2 + stakeholders
Part 1: State of the
Environment Assessment
Part 2: Systems
Assessment
C. 150 pages
C. 100 pages
Focusing on the state of Europe’s
environment in the context of drivers
and policy responses
Focusing on long-term, global and
systems analysis, and transitions to
sustainability
Part 1: Proposed logic and structure
7EAP priority objectives 1–3 (integration)
Sectors (integration)
Chemicals & health
Waste & resources
Air pollution
Climate change
Marine
Land & soil
Freshwater
Biodiversity & nature
Context
Part 1: SOE Assessment
Policy context:
Environmental acquis (8 core themes),
7th EAP objectives, EU sectoral policies
Timeframe:
Medium-term (1990–2005–2020–2030)
Analytical
focuses:
Environmental themes, sectors, policy
analysis, country comparisons, DPSIR
Fwd-looking
analysis:
Thematic outlooks (quanitative and
qualitative))
Stakeholder
inputs:
Regularly reported data, country-level
case studies
Capacitybuilding:
Distance to target and outlooks
methodologies (with Eionet)
Part 2: Proposed aims, logic and structure
Part 2: SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
Policy context:
7th EAP (and related long-term policies,
e.g. low-carbon, circular economy,
natural capital), SDGs
Timeframe:
To 2050+
Analytical
focuses:
Global context; social, technical,
ecological, economic systems; resource
nexus; environmental impacts;
transitions
Fwd-looking
analysis:
Global megatrends, horizon scanning,
transitions, systemic risks
Stakeholder
process:
External advisory group, Eionet NRCs
FLIS and SOER, country case studies
Capacitybuilding:
Need for Sbustainability assessment /
forward-looking assessment capacities
SUSTAINABILITY GOALS AND CHALLENGES
7EAP vision: ’Living well within the planet’s limits
Circular economy
Decarbonisation
Natural capital
Health and wellbeing
Global megatrends
Global context
Planetary boundaries
SDGs
UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMS
Core societal systems with most environmental burden (food, energy,
mobility, urban) and key supporting systems (fiscal, finance)
Socio-technical, -economic and -ecological perspectives
Systems interactions, feedbacks, lock-ins
Environmental impacts and resource nexus
SUPPORTING TRANSITIONS
Pathways, trade-offs, systemic risks
Learning, innovation and experimentation
Policy coherence, innovative and adaptive governance
Knowledge, networks and partnerships
SOER 2020 planning: overall timeline and milestones
2016
ROADMAP &
INFORMATION
MAPPING
2017
METHODOLOGIES,
LEARNING &
PARTNERSHIPS
Definition, organisation and preparation
December: agree SOER
2020 Project plan
Develop prototypes for
Parts 1 and 2
Map knowledge
development for 2017–
2019
Identify knowledge needs,
develop building blocks
Scope analytical methods
and EEA-Eionet learning
needs
Formalise partnerships and
networking
Implement staff learning and
capacity-building with Eionet
Develop Communication
Plan
Approve Implementation
Plan
2018
ASSESSMENTS
IN PARTNERSHIP
Produce Parts 1 and 2
Continued work on building
blocks, partnerships,
networking
Draft Parts 1 and 2 and
internal review
2019
1ST PUBLICATION &
STAKEHOLDERS
2ND PUBLICATION &
DISSEMINATION
Produce Synthesis
Parts 1 and 2 for external
stakeholder consultation
Mid-year: publish Parts
1 and 2 in English
Events and outreach
Annotated outline for the
Synthesis
2020
Engage MS, EU, global
stakeholders in
discussing Parts 1 and 2
Outreach
Short EEA stakeholder
consultation on draft
Synthesis
Translation of the Synthesis
Mid-year: publish
Synthesis in all languages
2020–2021: Events and
outreach
Draft the Synthesis
EU Presidency
Romania-Finland
EU Presidency
Croatia-Germany
SOER 2020 NRC SoE/FLIS activities 2017
• Common NRC FLIS/SoE meeting 26-28 September in
Bratislava (SK)
NRC FLIS
NRC SoE
26 Sept
27 Sept
28 Sept
½ day WGs meeting
!/2 day
Annual
CommonAnnual
Session on
½ day
Annual
Prototypes
• NRC FLIS: 2 expert meetings, 2-3 webinars (tbd)
• NRC SoE: 1 webinar (tbd)
Thank you
SOER 2020 plan and
implementation in 2017
SOER 2020 – Eionet interactions
Eionet involvement will be described in the Implementation plan
alongside the others stakeholders engagements
Type of Eionet involvement in the SOER 2020 process
• Coordination in the countries and link to MB – NFPs
• Dialogue EEA-Eionet; within Eionet (exchange of views, feedback)
• Input of the information (Use existing data and information provided by
countries in regular processes, potentially complemented with additional input
such as case studies’ .)
• Co-created knowledge/ information
• Participation in the Advisory group for Part 2 (and 1?)
• Participation and contribution to the “Integrated assessment
school/winter school”
• Review
• ..
SOER 2020 - NRC SoE and FLIS contributions
NRC SoE contributions to Part 1 (and 2)
NRC FLIS contributions to Part 2
Feedback on SOER2020 prototypes and
Co-creation of information to contribute to
Implementation plan
• Horizon scanning – detection and analyses of key
emerging issues, risks and opportunities
Capacity building and sharing experiences,
for example on summary trends assessments (piano
table)
• GMT impacts on national and European level – Eionet
report in 2018
Support the organisation of review process
2 Working groups – EXPRESSION OF INTERST by
13.3.2017
Discussion on potential country inputs and
ways to link to national SoE and processes
Capacity building FL, systems assessments:
Is advisory group for Part 1 needed?
• “winter school” – contribution
• Guidebook on sustainability assessment
Advisory group Part 2 - participation
NRC SoE
Thank you
27
European Environment: State and outlook 2015
A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and
of opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and
innovations in line with the long-term vision of the 7th EAP.
SOER 2015 Synthesis report
SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends
Global
megatrends
European
briefings
Cross-country
comparisons
Countries and
regions
11 briefings
25 briefings
9 briefings
39+3 briefings
Main objectives 2017 EEA report CCA/DRR
• To facilitate a better awareness and communication
• To explore potential synergies between DRR and CCA –
(knowledge base, policy developments and implementation)
• To describe trends and projections of selected extremes
• To describe economic losses from weather and climate related
disasters (including damage costs, using Munich Re data)
• To address case studies of successful solution and good
practices
Outline of 2017 EEA report CCA/DRR
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Overview of the policies and practices
Chapter 3: Assessment of weather and climate related extreme events
(hazards) in Europe (based on previous EEA reports)
Chapter 4: Impacts and risks of hazards on different sectors in Europe (human
health, ecosystems, and socio-economic sectors)
Chapter 5: Filling the gaps - successful cases and solutions
Chapter 6: Opportunities to better integrate CCA and DRR in policy and
practice
EEA products and services on climate change impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation 2014-2016
2014
2014
2015
2015
2016
Upcoming assessment reports
• 2016 Climate change, impacts and
vulnerability
• 2017 Linkages between climate
change adaptation and disaster risk
reduction
All supported by a European Topic Centre,
see: http://cca.eionet.europa.eu/
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
Increasing Relevance of Foresight
•
EU’s Foresight use has grown significantly in the past 20 years
•
Used across different domains and sectors e.g.
– To guide policymaking, to develop strategies,
– To explore new markets, products and services,
© Martijn Bergsma, Environment & Me /EEA
– To raise general public awareness of developments to
influence future etc.
Life can only be
understood
backwards;
but it must be
lived forwards.
Soren Kierkegaard
1813 - 1855
•
Main EU institutions: EEA/Eionet, DG RTD, Joint Research
Centre, European Parliament, European political strategy center
Global megatrends & European environment
2050
Disease and death from env. causes
25%
Global
disease
burden
pattern
Competition for resources
Pressure on ecosystems
Increasing env. pollution
Increasing impacts to cc
+
300%
67%
EU: 27% pop > 65 y.
Afr: 50% pop < 20y.
+
43%
economic growth?
2050
World pop live in cities
Continued
Urbanisation
2050
SOER2015 /
Setting the scene: global megatrends definition
Global megatrends are large-scale, high impact and often
interdependent trends visible today that are expected to extend
over the decades, changing slowly and exerting considerable
force that will influence a wide array of areas including social,
technologic, economic, environmental and political dimensions
(in Europe until 2050).
EEA, 2007
long term – high probability – high impact
EEA report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability
(end 2016)
•
Previous reports: 2004, 2008 and 2012
•
Content:
•
•
•
Assessing impacts of past and future climate change
Climate impacts on socio-economic sectors, ecosystems,
and health
Vulnerability to climate change
Update and extension of the 2012 EEA report,
to be published end 2016
European vulnerability to climate change impacts that occur outside Europe
EEA assessment report ‘Links between CCA and DRR’ (due mid 2017)
• DRR does not always consider future
changes in extreme events.
• DRR includes also other non-climate
related hazards.
• CCA addresses climate change and
changes in extreme events, but
focuses mainly on prevention and
protection, while DRR focuses on
full cycle.
• Risk assessments are common for
both CCA and DRR.
GMT 1: Diverging global population trends
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
Aging and shifting wealth of human capital
Growing and younger populations in the developing
world, the global growth of an affluent middle class, and
aging populations in developed countries will impact
resource use and the environment.
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 2: Towards a more urban world
Increasing consumption by middle class
An increasingly urban world will
probably mean spiralling
consumption and greater affluence
for many. But it also means greater
poverty for the urban underprivileged.
Poor urban living conditions and
associated environmental and heath
risks could impact all areas of the
world, including Europe.
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
GMT 3: Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The nutrition transition
Health inequalities persists
between regions, countries and
within countries.
Systemic challenges require systemic solutions
Second, because the co-evolution of technological and societal systems creates
lock-ins, feedbacks and trade-offs, implying the need for a systemic perspective.
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLICIES
Source: EEA
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
© Jonathan Díaz Marbá, Environment & Me /EEA
GMT 10: Increasing environmental pollution
•
Globally, levels of air pollution and releases of nutrients from agriculture and
wastewater remain high, causing acidification and eutrophication in ecosystems,
and losses in agricultural yield.
•
In the coming decades, overall pollution levels are projected to increase strongly,
particularly in Asia.
•
Although Europe’s pollutant releases are expected to continue declining,
European ecosystems and citizens are likely to be affected by developments in
other regions.
•
Despite a fall in air pollutant emissions there has not been an equivalent
improvement in air quality across Europe, partly as a result of the transboundary
transport of air pollutants.
Global megatrends & European environment
Background analysis
Update
EEA, Foresight and sustainability group
GMT 1: Diverging global population trends
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
The global population is expected to grow 43% by 2050, with Africa’s rising especially fast
Unequal development is likely to increase migration. Europe could face pressure for and
from immigration.
Source: UN World population prospects: The 2012 revision.
GMT 11: Increase of the role of non-state actors and proliferation of
international environmental agreements
SOER2015 / Global megatrends /
Number of international environmental agreements, 1950s-2000s
Source: Mitchel, 2014.
European Environment: State and outlook 2015
CONCLUSIONS
SOER 2015 Synthesis report
• Short term gains and growing systemic risk
• Need to foster transitions
• Challenges for European environment governance
arise from increasingly globalised drivers, trends
and impacts.