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Jonathan Granoff Peace Nobel Price Winner We are the first Generation to determinate by our ethical decicions whether to be the last generation at the same time Bayer Young Environmental Envoy 2005 • • • • • • Lost Balance Reasons/Megatrends/Perspectives Theoretical Chance Scenarios of the Future Global Marshall Plan Initiative What can you do? Lost Balance 30.000 1,5 Billion 2,8 Billion Humans die on starvation, daily Humans live with less then 1,0 US$ per day Humans live with less then 2,0 US$ per day EU-Cow gets subsidies of 2,8 US$ per day 548.000 Billion US$ Finance-Transaktions/Year 31.500 Billion US$ World-GDP /Year 956 Billion US$ Military-Expenses/Year 300 Billion US$ Increase of Wealth of the 600 richest/Year 116 Billion US$ Interest-Payments from South to North/Year 78 Billion US$ Development-Aid from North to South/Year 60 Billion US$ Fiscal Evasion by Off-Shore-Places/Year 25 Billion US$ Profit of Exxon in 2004 Lost Balance Income in US$/Year One of the worldwide Poorest 37 A Poor in the „Third“ World 150 An Unemployement Benefit in Germany 5.000 An Avarage Income in Germany 20.000 A Senior Civil Servant in Germany 80.000 The Highest Ranking Politician in Germany 250.000 A Top-Manager in Germany up to 20.000.000 A Top-Investmentbanker worldwide up to 600.000.000 The third-richest Person in 2004 18.800.000.000 World GDP in 2004 31.500 Billion US$ Years 2 10 14 20 29 12 Faktor (growth powerd by Years) Gates-Wealth in Billion US$ 42 1,60 (1,266 to second power) 67 10,57 444 27,16 1.141 111,86 4.700 934,50 39.250 16,94 Wealth of the 587 Hyper-Rich in Billion US$ 32.200 Megatrends Megatrends 1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45 Years . today. 2050 1927 10.000 generations . 9 – 10 Billion 6,3 Billion 2 Billion one human life-time Megatrends Megatrends 1. WorldPopulationgrowth +50% in the next 45 Years 2. New World-Market Economy • 1980 Reagan / Thatcher • Washington Consensus IMF, Worldbank • 5 Billions Humans more in World-Market Economy 3. Revolution in Communication-Technology 4. Revolution in Transport-Technology Post-War Situation until the 70th The State is dominant, but business is happy Globalization has caused … … the (international) private sector to dominate over the state and public sector. Corporate Tax Rates in OECD / EU-Countries Tax competition leading to a systematic decrease of corporate tax rates. (OECD figures from: KPMG, 2004, 2) Public enterprises‘ activity as a percentage of GDP Privatization has been predominantly a phenomenon affecting the low income countries. (Source: Sheshinski/LópezCalva, 1999; estimations based on the World Development Indicators) Private Phones Costlier Uruguay’s cellular customers benefited from worldwide price reductions, while Argentineans did not. The graph shows the differentiated development. (Data from ITU, 2003) Underinvestment in Tropical Diseases Only 1% of all new chemical entities are used for therapeutic innovations on tropical diseases. (Data from Trouiller et al, 2002, 1188-90) Neem Tree Seeds Protest against Neem Tree Fungicides Extract Patents … in front of the European Patent Office (EPO), Munich Used for centuries in India for pest control and cosmetics, a fungicide made from Neem tree seeds was patented in 1992 by an UScorporation but later revoked. (Source: Petra C. Fleisser) A third pillar, civil society is emerging … ... giving hope for a rebalancing of powers between public and private interests. BOP and World Economic Output T O P B O P 78% of global GDP 15% of world population 22% of global GDP 85% of world population High income (>9‘000 USD/Y) Low/middle income Two explosive effects of Growth In the North: increasing more resource intensive lifestyle In the South: fast growing population and increasing more humans, gaining the lifestyle of the North Resources Intenseness 2050 4-5 Billion 5 Billion Globalisation paves the way for a world-wide middle class prosperity of five billion people Limits to Growth - Club of Rome World Population Level at the time Limits to Growth was first published Industrial Production Level at the time Limits to Growth was first published Year Index of World Metal Use Overshoot and Collapse Pollution Population Industrial Output Food Resources 29 One Index of Oversho ot Number of Earths Required Global Ecological Footprint Year 30 The role of technical advancements The resource productivity has to increase by factor 10 in this century The double factor 10 • Increasing Eco-Efficiency / Dematerialisation of the World Economy to a factor of 10 in 50 – 100 years. • With chronicle increasing synchronism of the Gross National Product (GNP) to a factor of 10 in the same time period The Advancement Trap The Rebound-Effect Increasing use of materials despite dematerialisation Equity-Situation today The Future Formula 2005 2050 - 2100 80:20 320:680 100 1000 World-wide pattern of Distribution 100 2000 Equity < 12,5% shar e at a per capita ratio of 16:1 between North and South 80 von 100 Ø4 GN P 20 von 100 Ø 0,25 1,2 North 20% 6,3 Billion People South 80% Change of the Distribution Ratio 1000 world-wide with simultaneous considerable sustainable growth (per year: North 2.8% South 8%) 2050 - 2100 320 share Equity about 50% at a per capita ratio of 2:1 between North and South 320 von 1000 Ø 1,83 680 von 1000 GNP 1,7 Norden 5 19,4% Ø 0,94 9 Billion People Süden 80,6% Which future? 15 % Continuation of a Global Laissez-faire Free trade and deregulation as meta-philosophy Consequences • Free riding with CO2 emissions • War for water • Even more people dying of starvation • Even more displacement 15 % Recource Dictatorship – rich against poor Free trade and deregulation as meta-philosophy 50 % •Grandfather style solutions •Equal treatment of the Un-equal/no equal chance •„plunderer process“ would be legalised, •where applicable, political achievement •Green card used as form of taking advantage •terror as answer / state counter measures •(State terror as an option) •depredation of the civil freedom •(„Chip in every brain“) Eco-Social Market Economy Unequal treatment of unequal starting positions as a form of true equality of opportunite 35 % • The EU enlargement processes • Montreal Protocol • Co-financing of adaptation of standards • Model of the Marshall Plan after WWII • Sustainability • Global Contract • Global Marshall Plan Vision • We are all in the same boat • Civil Society, Business, Politics, Media, Science, all Religions, Cultures together we may solve the enormous challenges • Global collective intelligence may lead to a Global Consciousness to reach a better world order system Goals of a Global Marshall Plan The Global Marshall Plan intends to implement the UN Millennium Development Goals by 2015. Those include: • Halving the number of people living on less than 1 dollar/ day • Reducing by two thirds the mortality rate among children • all children complete a full course of primary education • Investing in reproductive healthcare • Providing global, public goods, such as: - Human dignity for all - Worldwide security MDG-Realisation under todays Conditions MDG 2: Halving the number of people living on less than 1 dollar/ day in 2040 MDG5: Reducing by two thirds the mortality rate among children in Latinamerica in 2010 in Asia in 2030 in Africa in 2165 Appropriation Requirements As Financial volume, an additional international allowance of 120 Billion US$ would be needed yearly, over the time period 2008-2015. 0,41 % Gross National Product (GNP) Sources: UN-Zedillo Report White Paper Minister Gordon Brown George Soros Altogether, this is in addition to the present stand of approximately 980 billion US $ Raising Funds Tobin-Tax 0,1 ‰ / 0,2 ‰ (estimated reduction of the markets by 300/200 Trillion US$ per year ) 30/40 Billion US$ IMF WTO Special Drawing Rights Per year in favour of the developing countries 30/40 Billion US$ TERRA-Tax 0,35 % / 0,5 % 30/40 Billion US$ Cerosine Tax Implementation Proposal of the Global Marshall Plan Initiative: Implement the UN-Millennium Goals through intelligent alliance of the international regime WTO, IMF, WB, ILO, UNEP, UNSCO Under the patronage of the UN und with the integration of Organisations such as: UNDP, WIPO, … Effective Use of Funds New forms of appropriation of funds directed to the grassroots level, while at the same time fighting corruption • • • • • • • Education Microcredit Renewable Energies . . . . Global Collective Intelligence 10.000 separated centers multiplying each to 10.000 people/brains 100 Million brains around the globe will share the same ideal Change the World Order System Bottum-up • • • • • • Enlighenment Books 250.000 / year Presentations 1.000 / year Website 250.000 / year Contributions of authors 200 / year Flyer 500.000 / year Media 300 / year – TV (Talkshows, Spots), Walls, Print, Radio,… • Audio/ Video starting 2006 – Download, DVD, … Global Marshall Plan Initiative Treffen Ulm, 24.-25 Juni 2005 Top-Down Campaign 2007 Germany may put the Global Marshal Plan on the Agenda of EU and G8 “Balance-the-World-Campaign” similar to “Make-Poverty-History” Integrating and focussing activities of of many organizations of civil societies, business, politics of different countries of many celebrities Balance-the-World-Conference Very Young Team Small Amazon 250.000 Books create • Awareness • Supporters • Partners • Donors • 40% of our Financial Budget • make a lot of work Mahatma Gandhi „Be the chance you want!“ What can you do? • • • • • • Support with your activity globalmarshallplan.org Mention the Initiative in your publications, books Make Presentations Support the Initiative by Position Papers Inform Organizations about us and other way Use Keywords like “Balance”, Eco-Social MarketEconomy”, • Create new cognitive frames Victor Hugo „There is nothing as strong in this world as an idea whose time has come“