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MODULE 4 What are the risks of a changing climate? Module 4: Effects of Climate Change 1 What are the risks of a changing climate? Weather events can get more extreme as temperatures warm. This can lead to an increased risk of • • • • • Deaths Property damage Population displacement Destruction of infrastructure Food and water insecurity Module 4: Effects of Climate Change 2 Weather events can get more extreme as temperatures warm. This can lead to an increased risk of • • • • • • Heat waves Drought Heavy Rain Floods Strong Hurricanes Blizzards This article summarizes some of these extreme events http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extremeweather#intro-section Module 4: Effects of Climate Change 3 Are recent storm events getting worse? On the next slide, how many of the events Happened before 2000 and after 2000? Why might this be the case? A lot of the severe storm damage has been due to hurricanes. How might climate change affect hurricanes? A key ingredient for hurricane formation is warm ocean water (> 26 degrees C.) 7 Module 4: Effects of Climate Change What does this map of the tracks and the intensity of tropical storms tell us about hurricane formation? http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Tropical_Storm_Map_png How are hurricanes formed? http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/sevweath/s whoware.html https://eo.ucar.edu/kids/dangerwx/hurricane3 .htm http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/scie nce/hurricanegenesis/ Module 4: Effects of Climate Change 9 Ocean Heat Content Ocean Heat Content is the amount heat energy stored in the ocean 10 https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ Module 4: Effects of Climate Change Yes, the data below suggests that hurricanes are increasing but we can’t say for sure if this is due to climate. There’s more to making a hurricane than warm water. # DATA FROM: YEAR http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:North_Atlantic_Hurricane_History_png Tropical Cyclone: Role of Wind Shear http://www.accuweather.com/en/weatherglossary/how-wind-shear-plays-intothe/14524883 https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1163 3-wind-shear-may-cancel-climates-effect-onhurricanes/ What is wind shear? Wind shear can rip apart storms before they can turn into hurricanes Winds spread out the energy needed for hurricane formation 12 Module 4: Effects of Climate Change Future Hurricanes What does the chart tell us about hurricanes? Hurricanes TODAY Hurricanes with More CO 2 Future Hurricanes Current and Predicted Hurricanes Today, 90% of hurricanes are category 3 or 4 Computer models with CO2 220% higher predict that more than 90% of storms will be category 4 or 5 but there will be FEWER hurricanes. See any trends in severe weather globally? Increase Year We know that surface warming melts more ice. Have we seen this happening? View the animated data. Here’s an experiment to demonstrate WHY we need to worry about the loss of more Arctic sea ice: 1. Place water in a glass (#1) and add ice until the water level is even with the rim of the glass. 2. Fill another glass (#2) with ice so it is higher than the edge of glass. 3. Fill glass #2 with water. 4. As ice melts, what is the difference between the levels of glass #1 versus glass #2? Read this article then explain how a warming Arctic affects the entire food chain. http://science.psu.edu/news-and-events/2013-news/Post7-2013 Antarctica Antarctica is one of the coldest places on Earth. Some of its ice rests on land and some floats on the ocean. Here’s a 2 minute NASA video. This model shows what Antarctica would like if all of its ice were melted. With warming, the water that had been locked up in the land ice will rise ocean levels globally. Land Ice: Greenland Melted ice In Greenland and Antarctica would rise sea levels. Use this web site to find where you live. Will you be affected by sea level rise? What about other places around the country? Sea levels have already been rising since the late 1800 but not the same everywhere. Which cities experienced larger sea level rise? There is uncertainty in how much the oceans may rise. Farther inland, other things are affected by climate changes. For example, how have the following events affected crop yields? What’s the relationship of temperature and crop yields? What’s the GLOBAL impact of climate on crops? It’s not just crops. Analyze the location of various sea life along the East Coast from Maryland in the south (bottom) to Maine in the north (top) As oceans warm, which species move northward? There are several pieces of the climate change puzzle that will affect agriculture, fisheries, and livestock. If the climate changes food production could be at risk. 32