Download Our Environment: an Uncertain Future

Climate Change & the UK Response
Brian Hoskins
Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
Measured Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Measured Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
• The rise in carbon dioxide is due to our activities, mainly burning of fossil fuels
• For every 100t of CO2 emitted now, 15-40t will remain in the atmosphere in 1000y
• Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the climate for the next 1000y
• Other GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, FCs..) give the equivalent of 20% more CO2
CO2 and Antarctic Temperature in the last 800,000 years
Royal Society-NAS Climate change: evidence & causes, 2014
Global mean temperatures 1880-
Jan-June
NASA GISS
Global mean temperatures 1880-
● 2016
NASA GISS
A warming climate
Surface temperature
change 1901-1920 to
1990-2010-2012
Global average sea level change 1992-
Sept Arctic Sea Ice Area
8
4
Projections of globally averaged surface temperature
change from 1986-2005
IPCC 2013
+0.6C for change from pre-industrial
Projections of surface temperature change
1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for high emission scenario (RCP8.5)
IPCC 2013
Projections of soil moisture change
1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for high emission scenario
IPCC AR5
Projections for other quantities
IPCC 2013
Global Ocean surface pH
+0.2m for change from 1900
The anthropogenic climate change problem: context
• growing world population
•need for development
•urbanisation
• changing diet
• increased demand for food, water & energy
• other global environmental changes
Sustainable Development Goals agreed at UN Sep 2015
The anthropogenic climate change problem:
impacts of continued emissions
2 billion people
with increased
water scarcity
10-12 billion
people/year
exposed to
heatwaves
70-90 million
people/year
affected by river
flooding
Cooling
demands 2x
50% of plant
60% of cropland
species lose > less suitable for
half habitat
agriculture
Many millions impacted by coastal flooding & erosion
The anthropogenic climate change problem: action
1. Adapt
2. Do something else to compensate:
a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us
(solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering)
3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of
greenhouse gases:
mitigation
1. Adaptation
1. Coping with today’s extremes
2. Planning to cope with possible future extremes
Thames Barrier
Options and decision points that would enable
coping with up to 2m of sea level rise by 2100
The anthropogenic climate change problem: action
1. Adapt
2. Do something else to compensate:
a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us
(solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering)
3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of
greenhouse gases:
mitigation
2a. Removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Forestation
Building with biomass
Soil carbon management
Coastal habitat restoration
Biochar
Enhance ocean productivity
Enhanced weathering & mineral carbonation
Bioenergy with CCU/S
Direct air capture
The anthropogenic climate change problem: action
1. Adapt
2. Do something else to compensate:
a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us
(solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering)
3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of
greenhouse gases:
mitigation
Suggestions for Solar Radiation Management
Compensate reduction in heat loss by reduction in solar energy received
Solar Radiation
Solar Interceptor
Top of
Atmosphere
Aerosol
Scattering
Cloud Albedo
SurfaceGrassland, Urbanization and Desert Albedo
Actual climate impact; feasibility; other impacts?
Level 1 –
Space
Level 2 –
Stratosphere
Level 3 –
Troposphere
Level 4 Surface
The anthropogenic climate change problem: action
1. Adapt
2. Do something else to compensate:
a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us
(solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering)
3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of
greenhouse gases:
mitigation
3. Mitigation: impacts avoided
AVOID project
International Negotiations on Mitigation
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Since 1992 annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to discuss actions
to prevent “dangerous climate change”
Kyoto Protocol (1997, active 2005 for 2008-12)
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
Paris (2015) COP21
Paris Agreement of 196 countries:
• Global T rise less than 2°C with 1.5°C as an aspiration
• Voluntary pledges of action by individual nations
• 5-year revision mechanism
• Pledge of funding for developing countries
22 April 2016
175 signed
Came into force 4 Nov 2016
Greenhouse emission scenarios to 2030
www.climateactiontracker.org/
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1990-2016
Technology: response to challenge
Stephenson’s Rocket 1829
Turner 1844: Rain, steam and speed
– The Great Western Railway
GB passenger numbers 1830-1915
Solar PV costs 1990- date
Two political challenges to those
proposing climate change mitigation
1. The proposed measures will ruin our economy
Without them, the economy is at risk.
The new challenge will lead to new opportunities for growth,
growth that can be sustained
Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 – end “its addiction to oil”
2. How dare you inhibit the growth of poorer countries?
They will tend to be hit the hardest by climate change.
New technologies can enable development that is sustainable,
but they will need financial and technological help
The UK Climate Change Act
Climate change mitigation
• 80% reduction by 2050
• 5 year carbon budgets –
legally binding
• Requirement to develop
policies and proposals to
meet budgets
Preparing for climate change
5 yearly Climate Change
Risk Assessment (CCRA)
& National Adaptation Plan
• Established independent
advisory body – Committee
on Climate Change (CCC)
www.theccc.org.uk
Evidence for the 2017 CCRA produced by
the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the CCC
18 Jan 2017 CCRA published by Defra
UK Climate Change Committee: setting 2050 target
Two Criteria:
• A 50:50 chance of not getting much above 2ºC
• Negligible chance of getting to 4ºC
2016:4%low
80
4
GtCO2e
60
2016:4%
50
40
2016:3%low
30
2016:3%high
20
2016:1.5%
10
0
2000
A1B
2050
2100
Year
2150
2200
°C above pre-industrial
70
3.5
3
90th percentile
2.5
2
central model
estimate
1.5
1
10th pecentile
0.5
0
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
Year
Implications:
• Global 50% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050
• About 2.1-2.6 t CO2e per person globally
• UK 80% reduction in CO2e emissions by 2050 in UK law
Meeting the Challenge in the UK
The UK Climate Change Act 2008
UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets
5th Carbon Budget (2030 57% GHG emissions reduction)
accepted by UK Government 30 June 2016
Conclusions of CCC’s 2016 Progress Report
Policies needed: Power, buildings, transport, infrastructure, agriculture
Concluding Comments - Global
• By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are taking a
gamble on the future of life on this planet.
• The extent and nature of the risk will continue to be a challenge
to science
• The technological challenge in limiting climate change is huge
but will be stimulating
• It is a major challenge to our social economic and political ways
of working
• Paris provides a great start but success will require imagination,
optimism and leadership
Concluding Comments - UK
• The 2008 Climate Change Act was world leading
• In mitigation (GHG emissions reduction) a good start has been made
• In both mitigation and adaptation there is an urgent need for new
policies that will put us on track for the next two decades