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Climate Change and Tourism INTERNATIONAL TASKFORCE ON SUSTAINABLE TOURISM DEVELOPMENT “MARRAKESH PROCESS” 3rd Meeting, Paris, 10-12 December 2007 Luigi Cabrini Director Sustainable Development of Tourism World Tourism Organization www.unwto.org Content presentation Climate Change Climate Change and Tourism Adapting Tourism as a Cause Mitigation Measures The International Debate Climate Change Global Climate is Changing ‘The warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ (IPCC-WG1-AR4 2007) +0.760C Climate Change has Only Just Begun ◘ the pace of climate change is ‘very likely’ to increase over the 21st century ◘ the biological response and sea level rise would continue for centuries Climate Change and Tourism Climate Tsunami Avian Flu Poverty Economy Environment Competition Infrastructure SARS Security Terrorism Oil Tourism in an era of Global Climate Change ◘ Impacts and Adaptations at Tourism Destinations » Mountain regions » Coastal regions and islands » Natural and cultural heritage ◘ Implications for Tourism Demand » Geographic and seasonal shifts ◘ Emissions from Tourism: Status and Projections » Sub-sectors: transport, accommodations, activities » Results for 2005 baseline and 2035 projection ◘ Mitigation Measures in Tourism Assessment of Major Impact Types at Tourism Destinations ◘ Direct climatic impacts » » » » ◘ Indirect environmental change impacts » » » ◘ Biodiversity Loss (terrestrial and marine) Sea Level Rise Disease Impact of mitigation policy on tourist mobility » ◘ Warmer Summers Warmer Winters Precipitation Changes (water supply) Increased Extreme Events Travel Costs and Destination Choice (less long haul? / less plane?) Indirect societal change impacts » » Global/Regional Economic Impacts Increased Security Risks (social/governance disruption) Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’ Regional Knowledge Gaps ◘ Changes in climate resources for tourism: » Alter geographic and seasonal distribution of demand - proportionately more tourism spending in temperate nations » No impact on demand at global scale ◘ Indirect environmental change: » Impact demand at destination-regional level » No impact on demand at global scale ◘ Indirect societal change: » Impact demand at destination-regional level » Reduce demand growth at global scale if economic growth adversely affected (reduced discretionary income) ◘ Mitigation policy: » Increased travel cost and environmental concern over tourism travel may impact long-haul and air travel » Market research is required to better estimate impact ◘ Tourist perceptions of destination impacts and of the environmental consequences of travel will likely play a central role in travel decisionmaking » Important influence by the media ◘ Accurate information on tourism and climate change is essential » Speculation and misinformation on impacts exists and is dangerous Example: ‘The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020’ -The Guardian, 28 July, 2006 » Improved science on impacts is in the best interest of the tourism industry and decision-makers Direct Climatic Impacts: Key Regional Vulnerabilities Warmer Summers Warmer Winters Extreme Events Water Scarcity Mediterranean and Middle East European Alps Caribbean Mediterranean and Middle East Southern USA and California NortheastMidwest USA/ East Canada USA Gulf of Mexico Coast Southwest USA Caribbean Australian Alps Polynesia/ Micronesia Australia South Africa Rocky Mountains East China Sea Coast North and SubSaharan Africa North Queensland Pyrenees Mountains Northern Australia Small Island Nations Indirect Environmental Change Impacts: Key Regional Vulnerabilities Land Biodiversity Loss Marine Biodiversity Loss South Africa Cape Region Sea Level Rise Disease Polynesia/ Micronesia Maldives and other Indian Ocean Islands Sub-Saharan and Southern Africa Mediterranean Basin Australia Florida Western Europe Polynesia/ Micronesia Caribbean and South America Polynesia/ Micronesia South USA Central AmericaCosta Rica South China Sea Gold Coast Mediterranean South America Amazon Basin Maldives Islands Coastal China Northern Australia Impacts of Mitigation Policies on Tourist Mobility: Key Regional Vulnerabilities Travel Cost Increase from Mitigation Policy Australia New Zealand Seychelles / Maldives Sub-Saharan and South Africa Polynesia/Micronesia Indirect Societal Change Impacts : Key Regional Vulnerabilities Increased Security Risks Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa Southern Africa Caribbean Southeast Asia Bangladesh-India-Pakistan Adaptation… Destination Level Adaptation ◘ All tourism businesses and destinations will need to adapt in order to minimize risks and capitalize on an new opportunities in an sustainable way » it is no longer sufficient to rely on past experience ◘ Very limited knowledge of the capacity of current adaptations to cope successfully with future climate change » some evidence that tourism operators are over-estimating adaptive capacity Destination Level Adaptation ◘ Adaptive capacity in tourism sector is high, but varies substantially between sub-sectors, destinations and businesses » some tourism stakeholders-regions will require assistance to adapt effectively to climate change ◘ ‘Mainstreaming’ of adaptation in the tourism sector remains years away » little evidence of anticipatory adaptation occurring ◘ The process of adaptation needs to start now » information requirements for successful adaptation will increase substantially over the next 25 years » Infrastructure and market transitions will take decades in some cases Destination Level Adaptation • Summer Tourism: water-stressed areas to adapt with alternative tourism products/services – e.g. cultural or rural tourism • Winter Tourism: Ski resorts that are “snow-dependent” to adapt with snow-making machines (however, not very sustainable) but to also consider extending seasonal activities – non-snow based – e.g. camping, mountain biking, etc. Tourism as a cause Calculation of Emissions from the Tourism Sector ◘ ‘Global Tourism Emissions Model’ for 2005 » UNWTO prepared a specific estimate for the project » Three sub-sectors: transport, accommodation, activities » Includes international and domestic tourism Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only Sub-Sectors CO2 (Mt) Air transport * 522 40% Car transport 418 32% Other transport 39 3% Accommodation 274 21% Activities 52 4% TOTAL 1,307 Total World (IPCC 2007) Tourism Contribution 26,400 5% Transportation of Tourists = 75% of Sector Emissions * - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate If Tourism was a Country Rank Country Percentage of total emissions (2005) 1 United States 22.2 % 2 China 18.4 % - European Union 11.4 % 3 Russia 5.6 % -4 Global India Tourism Sector 5.0% 4.9 % 5 Japan 4.6 % 6 Germany 3.0 % 7 Canada 2.3 % 8 United Kingdom 2.2 % 9 South Korea 1.7 % 10 Italy 1.7 % Source: World Resource Institute Global Tourism Emissions Compared with Other Major Economic Sectors Industrial Processes 3% Other Fuel Combustion 10% Transportation 17% Global CO2 Emissions by Sector (2000) * Electricity and Heat 33% Tourism Land Use Change and Forestry 24% * World Resources Institute Manufacturing and Construction 13% (2005) = 5% ‘Business as Usual’ Projection of Future CO2 Emissions from Tourism* 3500 3000 Air Transport Mt CO2 2500 52% 2000 Car Transport Other Transport 1500 16% 1000 500 0 Activities 40% 32% 21% Accommodation 25% 4% 2005 * Excluding same-day visitors 7% 2035 Mitigation measures The Future is Now Should climate be added to the equation of sustainable tourism, along with the economic, social and environmental aspects (Quadruple Bottom Line)? In any case, it makes the sustainability agenda more compelling. • Climate change must be considered the greatest challenge to sustainable development and tourism in the 21st century. • Tourism can play a significant role in addressing climate change. It must show leadership as an agent of change for both adaptation and mitigation – the time for action is now. Mitigation options ◘ ◘ ◘ ◘ Reducing energy use / Conservation: » changing transport behaviour (e.g. shift to rail and coach instead of car and aircraft, choosing closer destinations), changing management practices (e.g. videoconferencing for business tourism) Improving energy efficiency: » use technology to carrying out the same operation with a lower energy input Use of renewable or carbon-neutral energy: » substitute fossil fuels with energy sources that are not finite and cause lower emissions, such as biomass, hydro, wind, and solar energy Sequestering CO2 through carbon sinks: » CO2 can be stored in biomass (e.g. through afforestation), in aquifers and in geological sinks (e.g. depleted gas fields) The International Debate UNWTO initiatives in climate change and tourism • First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism (April 2003, Djerba, Tunisia) Djerba Declaration on Climate Change and Tourism •Reduction of greenhouse gases from the tourist sector •Management of impact of climate change at tourist destinations • GEF pilot project on climate change adaptation in tourism at SIDS (Fiji, Maldives…) • WMO Expert Group on Tourism and Climate 2007 2003 Djerba Davos London Cartagena Bali 2015 MDG Davos Declaration Climate is a key tourism resource but tourism is also a contributor to climate change (5%) Tourism is a vital economic factor and contributor to the MGD Adopt urgent policies to encourage sustainable development: economic, social, environmental and climate change responsiveness How to do it? Mitigate emissions (transport and accommodation) Adapt businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions New technology Help poorer regions adapting Davos Declaration – Call for action Government and international organizations − Incorporate tourism in existing commitments under the UN − Implement concrete actions for adaptation, mitigation, technology and financing consistent with the MDG − Provide training and technical support to destinations and operators in developing countries − Promote partnerships and information exchange − Collaborate in international strategies to reduce emissions in transport (ICAO & other), accommodation and other activities − Develop regional and local climate information services tailored to the sector (WMO) − Implement policies, regulations, educational programs, research and monitoring measures for effective adaptation and mitigation Davos Declaration – Call for action Industry and destinations − Implement mitigation measure throughout the tourism value chain. Establish targets, indicators and measure − Promote investment in energy efficiency programs and the use of renewable energy to reduce the carbon footprint − Integrate tourism in local adaptation and mitigation policies − Strive to conserve biodiversity, ecosystems and landscapes in order to strength their resilience to climate change − Implement climate focused product diversification, reposition destinations and foster all season supply and demand − Raise staff and consumers awareness on the impacts and engage then in the response Davos Declaration – Call for action Consumer − Encourage them to consider climate, economic, social and environmental impact in heir choice of travel and destination: reduce footprint if not directly by offsetting − Incentive environmental friendly activities in the destinations Research and Communication − Encourage multidisciplinary research on the impacts, develop risk assessment tools and cost-benefit analysis of responses − Include environmental and climate subjects in tourism education − Promote sustainable travel − Raise awareness of tourism potential as a development tool London and Cartagena Conclusions Identification of consensus measures to address climate change without losing sight of other priorities, such as the MDGs No discrimination against developing countries, especially longhaul destinations, by creating obstacles to their economic development Special consideration should be given to Least Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States by providing financial, technical and training support Policy responses should be balanced and comprehensive and focus on measures which are economically efficient Tourism industry must play a strong role as a part of a broader response to climate change, but it should not be disadvantaged through the imposition of a disproportionate burden Thank you! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org