Download CCCI_Mongolia_Executive_Summary_20110411

Mongolia National Scoping Study for Cities
and Climate Change, and Ulaanbaatar city
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
Executive Summary
1
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 3
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................3
2. GEOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE OF STUDY AREAS ...............................................................3
Mongolia ..............................................................................................................................................................3
Mongolia Cities ....................................................................................................................................................4
Ulaanbaatar City ..................................................................................................................................................5
Unur District .........................................................................................................................................................5
3. CLIMATE CHANGE .........................................................................................................................6
National................................................................................................................................................................6
Ulaanbaatar .........................................................................................................................................................7
4. IMPACTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................9
National................................................................................................................................................................9
Cities ...................................................................................................................................................................10
Ulaanbaatar city ................................................................................................................................................10
5. GHG EMISSION .......................................................................................................................... 11
National..............................................................................................................................................................11
Ulaanbaatar city ................................................................................................................................................12
2. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................... 12
Ulaanbaatar .......................................................................................................................................................12
Unur district .......................................................................................................................................................15
3. POLICY TO RESPOND CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................ 17
Mongolia ............................................................................................................................................................17
Cities ...................................................................................................................................................................18
4. CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE FRAMEWORK FOR ULAANBAATAR CITY ....................................................... 18
5. PROPOSED PROJECT AND ACTIONS TOWARDS CLIMATE RESILIENT UNUR DISTRICT ..................................... 19
6. CONCLUSION.............................................................................................................................. 22
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION
This Executive Summary introduces findings of research work conducted within UN Habitat CCCI
framework for Mongolia and its capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The research was done in 2010 with
3 components, namely, national scoping study (NSS) for cities of Mongolia in climate change,
vulnerability and adaptation assessment (VAA) and inventory of Green House Gas (GHG)
emission of Ulaanbaatar city.
The final research report is composed from 3 volumes, each of which corresponds to individual
research component as the followings:
Volume 1: National Scoping Study for cities of Mongolia in Climate Change;
Volume 2: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Ulaanbaatar city;
Volume 3: Green House Gas Emission from Ulaanbaatar city.
The Executive Summary is a synthesis of above 3 volumes and has 5 sections that summarize
findings of surveys (geographic and socio-economic profile) and scientific research (climate
regime and changes, projection of future changes); assessment results (impacts and
consequences, vulnerability), inventory outputs (GHG emission); and concepts and ideas for
future (policy and action projects).
Sections cover Mongolia, cities, Ulaanbaatar city and Unur district of Ulaanbaatar city (pilot
site). Actually information on weather and climate is more relevant to urban rather than rural
areas as all meteorological stations are located in the cities and towns, and spatial distribution
and temporal dynamics of climatic parameters is obtained from observation and measurement
conducted at those stations. This means that climate regime, change and variability in the
certain area are about the climate in the cities and towns located within that area. However,
climate change impacts and consequences are different in urban and rural areas and relevant
sections introduce the specifics. Description of vulnerability and adaptation assessment is
relevant to Ulaanbaatar city and Unur district.
2. GEOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE OF STUDY AREAS
Mongolia
Mongolia is situated in the central part of the Asia. The country has a total area of 1,564,100 sq.
km, and is bounded on the north by Russia and on the east, south, and west by China. It is the
3
19th largest country in terms of area in the world. It is also one of the largest mainland countries
with no access to sea.
At the end of 2009, resident population of Mongolia reached at 2735.8 thousand. Although the
population has doubled since 1960, the average population density – 1.5 persons per square
kilometer – remains the lowest in the world. But, by land use classification only 0.3 per cent of
total area (or 4.7 thousand km2) is urban, where 1.7 million people are settled. From this,
average density of urban population is approximately 360 person/km2.
Mongolia’s territory includes areas of relatively high altitudes. The northwest and central parts
of Mongolia are high mountainous regions, while the south and eastern part is a vast steppe
region. The Altai Mountain in the west and southwest rises to heights of 4,267 m above the sea.
The southern part of the country is a semi-desert and desert area known as the Mongolian Gobi.
By 2009 official land classification, about 73.9% of country territory is agricultural land, 15.9% is
for state special use, 9.2% is forest, 0.4% is land of water resources, and 0.3% goes to urban
areas, as well as about 0.2% is covered by roads and networks.
Mongolia has a harsh continental climate with four distinctive seasons, high annual and diurnal
temperature fluctuations, and low rainfall. Although annual precipitation is low, its intensity is
high, with large amounts falling in short time periods. Snow contributes less than 20 percent of
total annual precipitation.
Economic activity in Mongolia has traditionally been based on pastoral animal husbandry, which
was truly in harmony with nature. Since 1990 country has been in transition from centralized
planning to free-market market economy with extensive privatization of the formerly state-run
economy. Economic growth was from 7 to 9 percent in the last 3 years. Much of the growth was
due to high copper prices and new gold production. Besides agriculture (21% of GDP), dominant
industries in the composition of GDP are mining, trade and service, and transportation, storage,
and communication.
Mongolia Cities
At the end of 2009, the 62 per cent of population is living in urban area. Since the early 1990s, a
migration flow to cities, particularly to Ulaanbaatar city, from rural areas has been increasing
every year, and then since 2008 even with more accelerated rate. Migration rural population to
cities has both natural and social causes. Natural causes are drought and dzud1 disasters, and
social causes are limited market and job opportunities, and social services in rural areas.
The urban area is composed from the capital city Ulaanbaatar, 21 province centres – cities and
their satellite cities and 331 rural county centres – towns. Ulaanbaatar, Darkhan (centre of
Dakhan – Uul province) and Erdenet (centre of Orkhon province) are the major cities of country.
Since 1979 Mongolia population increased by 2.4 per cent, while urban population increased by
4.1 per cent. Percentage of city population in total was 47 per cent in 1979, and remained
unchanged until mid of 1980s, than sharply increased reaching 54 percent by 2000. At the end
1
Dzud is the Mongolian term for an extraordinarily harsh winter, that follows after summer drought, and is
characterized by heavy snowfall, extremely low temperatures, and high winds that prevents livestock from
grazing in spring when they begin to look for high quality grasses. If there is a dry summer or prolonged
drought, animals cannot find enough fodder to build sufficient strength and energy to overcome cold winter
and windy spring.
4
of 2009, the 62.3 percent of total population or 1.7 million inhabitants (or 440 thousand
households) live in urban area.
The city system is dominated by capital city Ulaanbaatar, in which all important political,
economic, and cultural functions are centralized. In 1986 Ulaanbaatar had 500,200 people (or
nearly 25 percent of the nation's population), by end of 2009 it has 1 106 719 inhabitants (or 40
percent of total). Its dominant position was demonstrated by the transportation system, which
radiated out from Ulaanbaatar.
Erdenet is the second-largest city in Mongolia with 86 thousand inhabitants and located in the
northern part of the country. It lies in a valley between the Selenge and Orkhon rivers. The city
was built in 1975 to exploit Asia's largest deposit of copper ore and has the fourth largest copper
mine in the world. The "Erdenet Mining Corporation" is a joint Mongolian-Russian venture, and
accounts for a majority of Mongolia's hard currency income.
With a population of 75 thousand inhabitants, Darkhan is the third largest city of country.
The city was built in 1961 with economic assistance from the Soviet Union and was originally
conceived to be manufacturing site in the north of Mongolia. It lies in the forest steppe valley of
Orkhon and Kharaa rivers’ confluence.
Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar is the capital and the largest city in Mongolia. It is located in the north central part
of the country, elevated at 1,310 m (nearly 4,000 ft) above sea level and lies in the Tuul River
valley. It is surrounded by the beautiful foothills of the Khentii mountain range, with the
centuries-old protected holy Bogd Khan Mountain in the south. Ulaanbaatar has four seasons
with a continental and semi-arid climate and it is probably the coldest capital in the world.
As date of 2009 end, totally 1106719 permanent population (40.4 % of country total) and
273182 households were registered in Ulaanbaatar city.
City is expanding rapidly and population is growing mechanically due to mass migration from
rural areas after 2000, when weather hardship and natural disasters occurred in few consequent
years. Settlement growth is much faster than urban development. For instance, in the recent 5
years settlement area expanded with 122 sq km, while infrastructure areas with 27 ha only. By
end of 2009, 61% of residents have settled in Ger districts that has very limited social and
infrastructure services. Number of people living in slam areas has been rapidly increasing. Since
2004 households living in Ger districts has increased by 40%, while increase of households in
apartments is 25%.
By 2009 statistics, Ulaanbaatar contributes 50.5 percent of national GDP. More than 15
thousand production and service companies were operating in the city, and 37% of economic
active people and 38% of employees are settled here.
Unur District
UNUR district was selected as pilot site for climate change vulnerability and adaptation study
and assessment. It is located on the territory of 6 Khoroos2 of Songinokhairkhan district (SHD) of
2
Khoroo is the least administrative unit of a Mongolian cities. Khoroo has an officially bounded territory.
Administration goes through a Khoroo Governor and his office.
5
Ulaanbaatar city. The district has 434,4 ha of territory with a residential area, where are modern
built up apartments in the south part, and traditional Ger areas in the north, which has been
newly settled since 2000, due to the mass migration from rural areas after consequent dzud
disasters occurred in Mongolia during 1999-2002.
The UNUR is comparatively close to the City Center (in distance of 6-8 km) where are more job
opportunities, better infrastructure and social services, hence people consider it is convenient
to live there since it is cost effective compared to other remote areas of the city.
By 2009 statistics total 45.9 thousand residents (or 11.4 thousand households) are living here.
70.4% of households live in apartments and comfortable houses, and 29.1% in small houses and
gers, and 0.5% are homeless.
In the Ger area households posses 0.7 ha of land by Law, construct fence and live in small house
or Ger3. Ger area households have no centralized heating and sanitation infrastructure, water
supply is from common use wells, and latrines are outside of the home.
Solid waste and grey water create the most problem in Ger area. Households normally transport
wastes via waste trucks, throw to trenches or burn openly. Minor parts of waste are recycled.
When waste burnt, the risk to making fire is increased. The residents settled closer to main road
remove waste via waste truck while residents in upper hill garbage to trenches and ravine,
because waste truck can’t reach them due to bad condition or absence of road. In addition, the
residents’ differ by cultural and living behavior and education.
The main meteorological station of Ulaanbaatar city is located in UNUR district, hence the
existing climate information relates directly to the district.
Solid waste and grey water create the most problem in Ger area. Households normally transport
wastes via waste trucks, throw to trenches or burn openly. Minor parts of waste are recycled.
When waste burnt, the risk to making fire is increased. The residents settled closer to main road
remove waste via waste truck, while residents in upper hill garbage to trenches and ravine,
because waste truck can’t reach them due to bad condition or absence of road. In addition, the
residents’ differ by cultural and living behavior and education.
It is noticed that large amount of garbage was in trenches and ravine especially near by
Khambiin Ovoo hill. As concluded, almost 53 % of local residents in Ger area of UNUR district
have no practice to proper removal of waste.
3. CLIMATE CHANGE
National
Climate Regime
The climate of Mongolia is characterized by short dry summer (June to middle of August) and
long cold winter (end of November to April) with spring (April to beginning of June) and autumn
(end of August to end of October). Mongolia is far from the world oceans, surrounded by high
3
Ger is traditional round tent for nomadic people, constructed from wooding walls, roof and covered by sheep
wool matters.
6
mountains and highly elevated above the sea level averaging 1.5 km. Climate is severe and
greatly variable geographically and time wise. Summer rainfall seldom exceeds 380 mm in the
mountains and forest steppe areas and is less than 50 mm in the desert areas.
Mongolia receives an average of 230-260 days of sunshine annually and the temperature ranges
between -15° and-30°C (-5° and -22°F) in winter, and 10° and 26.7°C (50° and 80°F) in summer.
In general, the amount of precipitation in Mongolia is low. Annual mean precipitation is 300-400
mm in the Khangai, Khentein and Khuvsgul mountainous regions; 250-300 mm in Mongol Altai
and forest-steppe zone; 150-250 mm in the steppe zone and 50-100 mm in the Gobi-desert.
Precipitation distribution depends very much on relief and landscape and decreases from north
to south and from east to west. Mongolian steppe and desert-steppe zones are windy. Annual
average wind speed in these areas is in 4-6 m/s. West-northwest-north wind dominates, but the
wind depends much on relief and landscape. Gobi-desert area has 30-100 days (300-600 hours)
of year sand-dust storm. Mongolian dust storms are one of the main sources of “Asian yellow
dust”.
Climate Change
The last 70 years trends of climatic parameters clearly show significant changes. According to a
linear trend estimation of temperature changes over the period from 1940 to 2007, annual
mean temperatures increased by 2.1°C. Warming is intensifying as from 0.06°C per decade in
1940-1975 to 0.52°С per decade in 1976-2006. Average annual precipitation has decreased by 7
percent between 1940-2007. There is seasonal difference as winter precipitation has increased
and warm season precipitation has decreased. Period of lower precipitation has been continued
since 2000. In the last 20 years, the frequency and intensity of climate related extreme events
and natural disasters have increased twice, while economic losses have increased by 10 – 14
folds.
Projection for Future Climate Change
Annual average air temperatures are projected to increase by 1.4-1.5°C by 2010-2039, by 2.42.8°C by 2040-2069, and by 3.5-5.0°C by 2070-2099. Precipitation is projected to decrease by 4
percent between 2010 and 2039, increase, by 8-20mm per month between 2040 and 2080. This
change will vary by season, with increases occurring in the cold season, but decreases in the
warm season.
Currently, 62% of the area of Mongolia has stable snow coverage greater than 50 days. This is
projected to decrease by 43-46 percent of current levels by 2020, 31-35 percent by 2050, and 27
percent by 2080. By 2020, permafrost area is projected to decrease by 30-50 percent, and by
2080 by 77-94 percent. For instance, melting of glaciers on Tsambagarav Mountain is projected
to lead to a total loss of 50m of glacier depth by 2070-2080, initial increase and then ultimate
decline flows in nearby rivers.
Ulaanbaatar
Climate change studies with focus on cities have not been conducted in Mongolia except this
study. As mentioned in Introduction section of this Executive Summary, information on weather
and climate is more relevant to urban rather than rural areas as all meteorological stations are
located in the cities and towns. Therefore above information on climate regime, change and
future projection refers to cities as well as national.
7
Study under UN Habitat CCCI is focused on Ulaanbaatar city and the findings are summarized in
the following subsections.
Climate Regime
Annual mean temperature in the city ranges between -0, 9 and -2,4оС and -19.3 and.-22,5оС is in
winter, +14.3 and+15.3oC in summer. According to data since 1979, the hottest air temperature
was recorded as 39.5оC in 15 July, 2005 and the coldest day with -46.9оС in 09 January, 2001.


Hot wave: July of 2007 was the hottest month. Days with temperature higher than 300
continued for half of the month. During this period, hottest temperature reached 390C.
Extreme cold: Extreme cold was recorded in January and February of 2005. Nights
colder than -300C were continued for one and half month. At that time the coldest
temperature was - 420C.
Total amount of annual precipitation in Ulaanbaatar ranges from 249 to 261 mm. There is
seasonal variation. Precipitation ranges from 180 to 190 mm in summer and 5-7 mm in winter.
Monthly amount of precipitation may fall in a day causing flood. For instance, average monthly
sum of precipitation around Chingis Khaan International Airport area is 68 mm, while rainfall
occurred on 13 July, 1995 gave 60 mm precipitation. On 17 July, 2009, the heavy rainfall
continued for 2.30 hours gave 40-52 mm precipitation and caused dramatic flood in the south
western area of the city.
The current study showed that the most hazardous phenomenon in Ulaanbaatar is flood caused
by rain, and number of heavy rain decreased, while its intensity increased, and probability of
heavy rain with thunder is more than 90 percent.
Climate Change
During the period 1940-2009, the annual average temperature increased by 2.73oC and annual
precipitation decreased by 9.97 mm in the city. By season, precipitation in summer was
decreased by 24.90 mm (13.5%), while winter rainfall increased by 2.40 mm (48.7%).
Duration of continues cold days is shorter compared to continues hot days. The number of days
hotter than 26oC in average increased by 44 days, days colder than 0oC reduced by 18 days. For
instance, number of hot days was 7 in 1979, 32 in 2002 and 36 in 2007 respectively. Days with
precipitation decreased by 10 days. These changes of indicators of climate extremes are higher
compared with the national average. In addition frequency of strong wind increased (28 in 1979;
50 in 2005; and 60 in 2009). Frequency of dust storm increased (18 in 1979; 80 in 2005; and 92
in 2007).
Projection for Future Climate Change
Outputs of climate change model for Ulaanbaatar city are shown in Table 1. By end of this
century winter is projected to be warmer by 3-5oC. Warming will lead to increase number of hot
days. Winter precipitation is projected to be increased, while days with more than 5 mm
precipitation is going to be decreased. Days with dust storm is projected to be increased.
8
Table 1. Climate change projection, Ulaanbaatar city
Annual
Winter
Summer
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
2011-2030
Temperature, 0C
2046-2065
2080-2099
2011-2030
2046-2065
2080-2099
2.77
2.92
2.14
2.11
2.21
1.85
3.48
3.55
2.49
3.73
3.78
2.76
2.87
2.88
2.43
4.72
4.76
3.17
4.87
4.43
3.22
3.75
3.22
3.31
6.43
5.77
3.61
14
11
7
30
19
13
6
3
3
19
16
9
38
28
17
10
9
5
21
19
15
46
32
27
11
12
14
Precipitation, %
4. IMPACTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
National
Climate change is having dramatic impacts on Mongolia’s natural and economic resources, and
dramatic social consequences. Changes to physical regimes of temperature, precipitation and
weather extreme events have further implications for natural and human environments,
including permafrost, glaciers and snow cover, water resources, natural zones, pastures and
grassland, livestock and agriculture, with resulting impacts on human lives and livelihoods.
According to the German Watch assessment Mongolia is among the most climate vulnerable
countries, ranking at 16th by Climate Risk Index (CRI), and at 6th by GDP Losses per capita
[German Watch, 2009].
About 75 percent of Mongolia total land area is natural grassland used for pasture. Livestock
obtains over 90 percent of its annual feed intake and fat from pasture during warm period from
May to October. Warming, decrease of precipitation in growing season, increased dryness and
frequent droughts are strongly affect pasture yields and quality of fodder.
Dzud disaster followed after drought, have substantial effects on socio-economic conditions in
Mongolia, largely due to the combination of extreme climate conditions and traditional socioeconomic structures, which are heavily reliant on natural resources. Warming, drought and
Dzud events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude under a changing climate.
The combination of changes to temperature and precipitation, as well as human impacts, is
further impacting on natural zones. In the last 65 years, the area of water coverage has
decreased by 36%, ice land by 31%, dry steppe area by 28%, area of forests by 8%, while areas
with sand coverage have increased by 46% and desert steppe areas by 68%. Boundary of natural
zones has been changing. The Gobi desert is expanding northwards, and projected to do so
9
rapidly under a changing climate, eroding the land available for grazing.
Cities
Social consequences of above mentioned countrywide climate changes are unemployment and
poverty in rural areas, mass migration of rural population to the cities, increase of unplanned
settlements and slam areas, and rapid urbanization without proper housing, sanitation, and
water and energy supplies. Urban residents, which was 52% of total population in 1995, has
increased up to 60% in 2005, and has reached 63% by end of 2009.
Expansive unplanned settlements, particularly in Ulaanbaatar capital city, have resulted in
increased pressure on public services and the environment. These factors combined with poor
waste management, air and soil pollution, limited social services and water supply, and
unemployment negatively affect the health and safety of people and their livelihoods. One third
of the city’s population - who live in poverty in the densely populated areas and is inadequately
covered by social services - is particularly vulnerable to these changes.
The cities including Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet, Dakhan and some province centres have been
affected by air pollution especially during winter, as all domestic and industrial heating systems
use raw coal with a high ash and sulphur content, and most vehicles in country use leaded
gasoline. Acute respiratory diseases, tuberculosis and other lung diseases are reportedly higher
during winter.
The decrease of summer rainfall causes dryness and limits plant growth, and an increase of
winter precipitation affects in frost, cold snap, snow cover and slippery. Cold spells, hot waves,
floods and storms are natural hazards affecting urban population and their livelihoods. For
instance, in Ulaanbaatar city 72 extreme phenomena occurred during 2002-2009 and 45 persons
were died. With aging and poorly maintained drainage facilities, and low quality houses,
particularly Ulaanbaatar city is vulnerable to intense flooding and storms. Floods often occur
due to degradation of the land water retention capacity, urbanization in the hilly, steep slopedareas, as well as deforestation in the watershed area.
During extreme hot days, residents of Ulaanbaatar went to Tuul River for swimming and many
people died in the river. Number of emergency calls was increased due to blood pressure
increase of the elders, cardiovascular disease, stomach communicable disease and food
poisoning among the residents.
Similar with flood, strong wind storm causes severe damage and loss. The wind storm with 1724m/sec had occurred in Ulaanbaatar on 27 April, 2005. The storm caused injury of 3 persons,
damage of 57 khashaas, 3 gers, 30 street advertising boards, and many roofs of buildings, power
lines. Total loss was estimated at around a hundred thousand US dollar.
Limitations of the early warning systems, emergency management services, and unawareness
among the citizen and public servants increase cities and country wide climate risk.
Ulaanbaatar city
Exposure and impacts in the city can be listed as the followings:
10
a. from warming and temperature cold and hot extremes:
i. Increased air pollution in winter from coal burning, in spring and summer from
dust, and year around from transportation;
ii. High blood pressure, heart shock and sickness
iii. Food decay and sick from food poisoning
iv. Increased dryness and daily water use
v. Hot wave stress and increased depressing of people
b. from flood:
i. Damages in ger areas: flood protection dam, small shops and workshops, houses
and gers, fences, furniture, latrines, family vegetable growing field, electronic
devices and fuel storage, not insured losses and homeless people;
ii. Damages in build-up areas: flooding of auto roads and ground floor of buildings
iii. Impacts on health and safety of people, including injury, deaths, and infectious
diseases from pollution caused by latrine overflow in flood
c. from storms:
i. Property damages: House roofs, windows, gers and fences;
ii. Impacts on health: Getting sick with cough and pneumonia, school and work
leaving, injury due to slippery road and footpath
d. from complex events, particularly drought and dzud disasters:
i. Mass migration from rural to urban, rapid increase of settlement in flood risky
areas, today total 97 households are in risky zone; For instance, in Unur ger
district, there are 18 streets are at slope and flood risky zones where live around
100 households with more than 400 residents.
ii. Over load on social services and infrastructure
iii. Degradation and pollution of soil, decrease of green zones
In recent 5 years, the emergency calls for following disaster and hazards have been received by
capital emergency department: flood: 280, land slide 24, chemical pollution, contagious disease
of human and animal and forest fire.
5. GHG EMISSION
National
Refer to the latest National GHG inventory (2006), the net GHG emission is 15,628 gigagrams
(Gg) in CO2-equivalent. The energy sector, including stationary energy, transportation and
fugitive emissions, contributes 65.4% and agriculture 40% of GHG emissions. The total CO2
removal is more than total CO2 emissions at 2,083.6 Gg (13.3%). Other relatively minor sources
include emissions from industrial processes and the waste sectors. As a whole, this translates to
a CO2 emissions per capita at 6 ton CO2 equivalent.
Although, the total emission of GHG is relatively small, Mongolia has developed its strategy and
policy to abate GHG emission. The GHG mitigation measures are not only important to mitigate
GHG emissions, but also these are necessary to improve efficiency of energy and heat use and
introduce environmentally sound technologies in the sectors that are major GHG emitters. The
greenhouse gas mitigation policies are to focus on:

Institutional integration and coordination among energy and environmental sectors;
11


Prioritize funding to the acting and cooperating organizations for effective mitigation;
Provide legislative and administrative frameworks.
Ulaanbaatar city
The major heat and electricity of Mongolia is produced in three power plants of Ulaanbaatar
city, and a coalmine that provides fuel for power plants is also located in Baganuur district of the
city. In addition, the most industries of Mongolia are operated or registered in Ulaanbaatar.
Therefore, per capita GHG emission in Ulaanbaatar is to be higher than national average.
Within this CCCI study, preliminary GHG emission of Ulaanbaatar city for year of 2009 was
calculated according to the IPCC 2006 guidelines with use of Tier 1 method. Calculation gave the
net GHG emission equal to 4,952 gigagrams (Gg) in CO2-equivalent. Contribution by sectors is: as
stationary energy 63%, transportation 29%, coal mine 4%, solid waste removal on land 2%, and
land use change and agriculture 1% of GHG emissions. Rapidly growing Ger area contributes 9%
of GHG emission from heating with raw coal burning.
As this inventory is not complete (particularly emission from industrial processes), it can be
assumed that the actual emission from the city is not be less than the estimated value and
currently the city may contribute more than 40 percent of the national GHG emission.
Unur district
In UNUR Ger area 89% of surveyed households use raw coal which is the most affordable fuel
for middle income households for heating in cold weather. Coal combustion emits toxic
substances such as sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide that pollute air,
affect human health and increase GHG in the atmosphere.
Poor households cannot afford coal fuel, so they make fire from vehicle tires, boots, clothes and
whatever can be burnt in winter. The 58% of those poor households are new migrants to UNUR
and live here for a year. The cold season continues for 8 months and households burn 3-10
tonne coal and 1-2 cubic meter of firewood annually in average. Lower amount of coal burning
relates to households living in traditional ger, while higher amount relates to bigger houses with
better livelihoods.
The GHG emitted from this coal combustion in Ger area is estimated as 9.8 Gg in CO2equivalent. This is 2.4% of GHG that emitted from residential areas of Ulaanbaatar city.
2. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Ulaanbaatar
Vulnerability
Vulnerability refers to “of what (object or subject) to what (hazard from climate change or
exposure) and how much (degree of impact or sensitivity)”. In the Ulaanbaatar city vulnerability
assessment objects are land, road infrastructure and buildings, and subjects are households and
organizations in both Ger and built-up areas. Climate change phenomenon is grouped by
physical parameters such as temperature, precipitation, storm and complex hazardous event.
12
Sensitivity is assessed by consequences, severity and likelihoods with score from 0 to 3 (0 refers
to neutral, 1 to low, 2 to middle and 3 to high sensitivity respectively). Severity is characterised
by affected area, continuation of impacts and recoverability. Consequences differ by the
subjects and objects as the followings:




Land: cover/use, quality and resources;
Households and organization: income generation, property/resources and habitat; and
Road infrastructure: access and quality
Building: construction process and quality
Summary of vulnerability assessment is shown in Table 2. Higher value refers to more impacts or
sensitivity. Assessment results have showed that the land is the most sensitive object to climate
driven changes, and change and variability of precipitation is the most hazardous exposure to
the city. Households and organizations located in the Ger area are twice vulnerable than those
in the built-up area. These findings are showing necessities to focus on issues related to land
and the inhabitants of the Ger areas in further policy and practical actions to respond climate
change.
Table 2. Vulnerability of Ulaanbaatar city to climate induced changes
Climate change pattern
Temperature
Precipitation
Storm
Objects to be affected
Warming,
extreme hot,
extreme cold
Increase in winter,
decrease in summer,
heavy rainfall, flood,
dryness
Strong wind,
snowstorm,
dust storm
Land
People
Ger area
Household/Organization
38
35
58
51
33
Built-up area
Household/Organization
Road infrastructure
Building
Total score
Complex event
Total
score
36
37
Drought, dzud
disaster,
desertification,
glacier, permafrost
melting
64
36
43
34
37
147
13
25
25
8
71
19
11
149
28
20
225
15
18
165
8
10
163
70
59
196
159
Adaptation
Adaptation to climate change of Ulaanbaatar city was assessed by 27 items of wealth,
technology, infrastructure, social and governance dimensions (Table 3).
Adaptation assessment results have showed clearly that infrastructure services is the poorest,
and necessities for its development along with improvements of adequate governance in the
city. Improving disaster preparedness capacity at grassroots level with establishing early warning
13
serene and local disaster relief centers, and construction of paved roads in Ger areas, increasing
green energy utilization and expanding green area of the city should be among the highest
development priorities (these items are highlighted in the table).
Table 3. Adaptation to Climate Change, Ulaanbaatar city, 2009
Dimensions and Indicators
1. Economic dimension
Human development index (life
1.1
expectancy, education, GDP)
1.2 Wealthy households (non poor), %
1.3 Households with home, %
1.4 Households with normal sanitation, %
2. Technology dimension
2.1 Households with TV
2.2 People with mobile phone
2.3 Households with Internet
Area covered by emergency serene,
2.4
%
2.5 Area covered by radar, %
3. Infrastructure dimension
3.1 Access to sustainable heat supply
3.2
Access to electricity
3.3
Energy saving (Ratio of households
living in Ger to total households), %
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
Paved road in Ger area
Percent of green energy
Solid waste removed from ger area, %
Gray water treatment plant
Green zone, ha per households
4. Social dimension
4.1 Gross enrolment in school, %
4.2 People free from diseases, %
4.3
Infectious diseases
4.4
Heart, blood circulation system
4.5
Digestive system
4.6
Respiratory system
4.7 Number of hospital beds per capita
4.8
Number of physicians per capita
5. Governance dimension
Area within 20 km from First Aid
5.1
Centre
Area within 10 km from Emergency
5.2
Relief Centers
Area within 5 km from Fire
5.3
Protection Centers
Systematic environmental
5.4
protection, monitoring activities
Disaster preparedness and risk
5.5
reduction activities
Ref. year
Ref. data
Weight
Sub-weight
Wtd.score
0.20
2009
0.757
0.25
0.19
2009
2009
2009
73.3%
99.6%
39.2%
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.18
0.25
0.10
2007
2007
2007
82.4%
90.0%
18.7%
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.16
0.18
0.04
2009
30.0%
0.20
0.06
2009
60.0%
0.20
0.12
2009
2009
39.5%
97.1%
0.20
0.08
0.20
0.19
2009
26.4%
0.10
0.03
2009
2008
2009
2006
10.6%
4.0%
42.0%
39.8%
2009
0.075
0.20
0.05
0.10
0.10
0.05
0.02
0.00
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.20
0.20
0.20
2009
96.2%
0.20
0.19
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
98.3%
99.8%
99.9%
99.9%
0.007
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.20
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.01
2009
0.004
0.20
0.01
0.20
2010
38.5%
0.20
0.08
2010
9.6%
0.20
0.02
2010
31.3%
0.20
0.06
2010
100.0%
0.20
0.20
2010
50.0%
0.20
0.10
Total
score
0.14
Percent
72.0%
0.11
56.2%
0.08
40.8%
0.12
61.2%
0.09
45.9%
14
Unur district
Vulnerability
The local residents in Unur district had exposed in landslide, flood, snowstorm, hot wave and
extreme cold, and their health and properties were affected. For instance, meteorological
station recorded 51 days with air temperature hotter than 30oC in the recent three years; and
landslide and flood has happened on 17, 21 July, 2009 and residents were not warned in
advance and preventive actions were not taken properly.
Ger area of Unur district is located on uneven land surfaces of low mountain hills and slopes.
There are many trenches and ravines. 5 dry beds accumulating flood runoff water have lengths
from 660 to 2730 m, and catchment areas from 1.7 to 16.7 hectare, and 97 households are
settled in the very sloppy and flood prone zones.
The Hambyn Ovoo hill was one of solid waste disposal site of the city, and later waste was
treated by landfill. Whole Ger area is located at the downwind side from this site. Higher
altitude and hill slope provides the vulnerable condition for strong winds and snowstorm in
winter and dust storm in spring. Land filled waste has been opened due to wind and with dust
flows down to the Ger area.
57% of residents of the area is formally employed with labor and temporary working contracts,
8% is active registered job seekers, while 35% are unemployed. Majority of residents are hired
by physical labors with lower salary compare with mental labor. The low wage, limited working
places and low financial resources for running small private business are directly affect income
and livelihood of population. By 2009 statistics 36% or 3186 households in Unur ger area are
living in poverty with income below the living standard level. The most of poor families are
newly settled and in the flood risky area.
Adaptation
Adaptation to climate change of the Ger areas of Unur district was assessed by 24 items of
economic, technology, infrastructure, social and governance dimensions (Table 4).
Adaptation assessment results have showed clearly that an infrastructure service is the poorest,
and there are urgent necessities for its development along with improvements of social services
and adequate governance in the area. Implementation of functional disaster risk reduction,
construction of adequate sanitation, footpath, provision public transportation, solid waste
management, and establishment and operation of public service centers should be among the
highest development priorities in this local area with nearly 46 thousand residents (these items
are
highlighted
in
the
table).
15
Table 4. Adaptation to Climate Change, Ger area of Unur district, 2009
No.
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
Dimensions and Items for
Climate Change Adaptation
Economic dimension
Households above poverty threshold
Employment
Registered land tenure
Technology dimension
Access to information &
telecommunications
Access to electricity
Functional DRR plan
Infrastructure dimension
Access to drinking water
Adequate sanitation
Housing - permanent structure
Flood control channel
footpath
foot bridges
public transportation
Street lights
Solid waste disposal place
Social dimension
Number of schools, education
centers
Number of public service centers
Number of kindergarten
Number of hospitals, medical
centers
Governance dimension
Local capacity to identify hot spots,
and vulnerable areas and people
Mobilization and organization of
communities (CDCs)
Systematic environmental
protection, monitoring activities
Disaster preparedness and risk
reduction activities
Public awareness campaign
Residents or
households with
access to
services, % in
total
Weights
By group
0.25
0.64
0.65
0.84
Weighted score
By items
Score
0.176
Percent
70.4%
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.064
0.049
0.063
0.108
72.0%
0.15
0.90
0.30
0.041
0.90
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.068
0.000
0.071
0.030
0.000
0.016
0.008
0.000
0.005
0.000
0.013
0.000
0.055
0.25
0.80
0.00
0.44
0.30
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.15
0.10
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.15
0.50
0.20
0.015
0.00
0.33
0.20
0.20
0.000
0.010
0.50
0.40
0.030
0.2
0.062
0.50
0.10
0.010
1.00
0.10
0.020
0.20
0.20
0.008
0.20
0.50
0.020
0.20
0.10
0.004
28.6%
36.7%
31.0%
16
3. POLICY TO RESPOND CLIMATE CHANGE
Mongolia
Mongolia joined the international initiatives in addressing the issue of climate change affecting
its people and economy by ratifying, among others, the United National Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993 and its Kyoto Protocol in 1999. The Government has taken
considerable steps toward the implementation of the UNFCCC, by accomplishing the required
commitments such as the Initial National Communication (INC), Technology Needs Assessment
(TNA) and the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to address climate change and
other legal commitments.
The Government of Mongolia has established a National Climate Committee (NCC) led by the
Minister for Nature, Environment and Tourism (MNET) that is responsible for implementing the
commitments under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol and for managing the nationwide activities
to integrate all climate-change-related problems in various sectors. In 2009, a Special Envoy on
climate change was nominated and a permanent Climate Change Office (CCO) has been
established. Mongolia has also started the preparation of the Second National Communication
(SNC) to the UNFCCC.
National Climate Risk Management Strategy and Action plan was drafted (2009). The Strategy is
to create a sustainable framework for climate risk management, that fosters a common
responsibility for risk reduction across all stakeholders, and signifcantly reduces the losses
associated with climate and disaster risk, through effective early warning and disaster
preparedness, as well as cost effective adaptation measures that help to build climate resilience.
Mongolia countrywide Climate Change Assessment was done in 2009. This Report gives a
detailed description of observed changes in climate factors and variables and the possible
causes of the change. It also gives the projection of future climate change trends possibly
influenced by human activities in this century.
The Report provides a comprehensive source of information for the government and interested
parties in establishing strategic plans for adaptation and mitigation responses as well as
technology needs assessment in economic sectors, the key conclusions and options for planning
on climate change.
Mitigation options are for improving energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, while
adaptation options include the need for new pastureland management and livestock production
systems, and early warning systems for extreme weather events to prevent related disasters.
Today, 19 programs and plans from totally 59 national programs have been implemented in the
context of environment and climate changes at national level.
17
Cities
Above mentioned is nationwide policy. Cities don’t have own policy to respond climate change.
Rather they have action plans for implementation of national programs. City development policy
division at UB city Governor Office is solely responsible for the implementation of those
programs. The Monitoring and Evaluation division is in charge of receiving the quarterly
progress on program implementation.
4. CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE FRAMEWORK FOR ULAANBAATAR CITY
The framework is a generic matrix containing the list of actors and activities that would be
required to respond climate change in Ulaanbaatar city. The city actors are those who are living
and operating in the city, namely, city government, residents and organizations. The major
activities are to protect environment and people, property and habitat in emergency, sustain
household livelihoods, develop infrastructure and green economy, and govern balance and
harmony (Table 5).
Table 5. Climate Change Response Framework for Ulaanbaatar city
Activities
1. To protect
environment
2. To protect in
emergency
3. To sustain Livelihoods
4. To develop green
economy
5. To balance & Harmonize
Progress
Weather, air, water, soil,
vegetation, animal
People, property, habitat
Health, life skill, shelter, sanitation, income,
demand, consumption
Food, energy, transportation,
construction
Policy, mechanizm, system
Sectoral GHG watch, green
technology transfer, harmonic
progress solution, sustainable
operation, self organizing
Terristorial GHG watch, economic
motivation, monetary reserve, information
exchange, collaboration & partnership,
self sustainability policy, programm
Goals 
Focus objects 
monitroing, prediction,
threat assessment
Focus Processes 
Livelihood watch, self sustaining, market
Protective early warning,
development, resource mobilization, housing,
preparedness, relief, recovery
household GHG watch
Actors 
1
City government
2
System for partnership and collaboration
Parliament
Municipality
Mayor's office
Departments
Districts
Khoroos
Citizens
Residents
Households
Communities
3
City organizations
Industry, service
Academic
Media
Multi-Agent Governing Bodies
System for coordination, monitoring and evaluation
The framework was developed with analysis and synthesis of findings from pilot study at Unur
district, Ulaanbaatar citywide climate change vulnerability assessments, and the outputs from
series of consultative meetings and workshops. Initial list of proposed climate change responses
18
included 100 measures. Then they were grouped in management categories, focusing objects
and processes to be managed.
5. PROPOSED PROJECT AND ACTIONS TOWARDS
CLIMATE RESILIENT UNUR DISTRICT
The proposed project title: Climate Resilient Unur District;
The project goal is to develop and pilot a prototype of resilient settlement in Unur district that will
be applicable for replication to other districts of Ulaanbaatar city as well as other urban centers of
Mongolia.
Outputs:
i. Outputs related to development of resilient city framework for Ulaanbaatar city with focus
on environment, emergency, household livelihood, green economy and governance:
 Ulaanbaatar Climate risk index
 Review and recommendation for Municipal Budget from the CC Adaptation and
Mitigation aspects
 Resilient City Framework Proposal
ii. Outputs related to piloting of the Framework in Unur district
 Necessary safety standards for households and organizations including education and
health facilities
 A Fund Establishment for Local CC Adaptation
 Mobilized and Strengthened Community Relief Units
 Policy Dialogues with Stakeholders
 Recommendation for improvement of policy and regulation and multi-agent interoperability for the Climate Resilience
 Fostering of the adaptation activities
iii. Outputs for Improvement of institutional and technical capacity of key stakeholders in the
proposed framework
 Trainings and study tours for experience sharing
 Operational manuals for CC Adaptation
 Adapted Safety Guidelines and handouts for households and organizations
 Necessary equipment and facilities for Early Warning System, Emergency Relief, Disaster
Mitigation and CC Adaptation
iv. Stakeholder participation and Consultation:
 City Government: parliament, municipality, mayor's office, departments, districts and
khoroos;
 Citizens: Residents, households and communities; and
 City organizations: Industry, service, academic and media.
19
Actions proposed from local residents of the Unur district to respond climate change is shown in
Table 6. Actions are divided into soft (non structured) and hard (structured) measures, and by
household, organization and government levels of implementation.
20
Table 6 Proposed actions responding climate change in Unur district
Level
Soft: Capacity building
Hard: Tasks to be done
Households
Family members should obtain the information who
should address or contact when disaster occurred
Get the information and skills on home recipes
protecting the health, simple and safe ways of treatment
at home condition
Understand and realize that households should take the
appropriate preparation on protecting health and real
properties from hazards based on their potential
reserves and resources
Cooperation and helping to each others and understand
the importance of collaboration
Active participation in community based activities
Learn the environment friendly habits and skills as well
as traditions
Community based organizations
Conduct the training and public awareness activities
concerning climate changes and environment problems
how they are connected with public daily life and habits
Community mobilization and initiatives within the
available resources and learn the advanced technology
Set up the rescue local team and teach the saving
techniques and methods and cooperate with them
Local government
Encourage the community based development
approaches
Learn the practices of long term collaborative methods
Making the information open for the public and assist
them to be jointly organized and support community
based initiatives
Assist with policy on consuming the environment
friendly fuels and bags
Professional organizations
Pay attention on the preventive options and measures
Develop and implement the sustainable collaborative
ways with residents and feedback system of information
Improve the quality of services and works in the
condition of climate changes
Warming up gers, digging channels and ditches,
furnishing own khashaas
Preparation of medicine or no medicine supplies,
wet sand and felts, households should have first aid
box or emergency package
Purchase of paper and cloth bags and make them
durable
Use of clean purified coal and fuels
Should have iron trash bin with lid in khashaas
Infrastructure facilities should build up with
community participation.
Initiate the local furnishing works under the available
possibilities
Protection of infrastructure facilities for public
purpose should be organized with participation of
local residents and communities and make it habitual
Establish the information sharing and monitoring
networking
Support the community based initiatives and
participation and establishment of rescue local team
and provide with required trainings and clothes
Identify the required resources from internal and
external funding, planning the local protection
facilities
Implement a green growth strategy concerning
climate changes and environment issues
Development of handouts and advocacy materials
stating the simple methods how prevent from the
natural disaster and hazards for the general public
Increase the capability of institutions or service
providers of help and emergency assistance
21
6. CONCLUSION
Mongolia is sensitive to climate change, because of its location, fragile natural ecosystems, the
nomadic lifestyle of nearly the half of the population and the economy that bases on pastoral
animal husbandry. Climate change is likely to lead radical changes the traditional way of living
that was established for thousands of years. Impacts resulting from observed climate change
cause high damage not only to the natural systems but also to the socio-economic systems of
the country.
Climate change context in urban area of Mongolia is broad and variable. The Government put
considerable efforts to respond to climate change consequences, mainly with nationwide
studies, assessments and policy developments, while the cities have own specifics that is not
limited only with government soft measures but also strongly require practical actions with
involvement of the key stakeholders including business and the community for the interests and
benefits of its residents. So scale and dimension of such requirements differs by geographical
location and specifics, natural and human made resources, number of residents, and socioeconomic developments of the cities. For instance, in case of Ulaanbaatar city, this is about the
provision of health, safety and sustainable livelihoods for more than 40 percent of country
population; and interest and sustainable operation of more than 15 thousand business entities
that contribute more than half of the national GDP. Unfortunately the issues raised and
accumulated in the last few decades in cities from climate and other changes, and their
consequences have not been studied, assessed and addressed adequately so far. In such a
situation, UN Habitat CCCI is the pioneering effort towards climate change adaptation and
mitigation in urban areas of Mongolia.
Vulnerability assessment results have showed that the land is the most sensitive to climate
driven changes, and change and variability of precipitation causes the most hazards in the city.
Households and organizations located in the Ger area are twice vulnerable than those in the
built-up area. These findings are showing necessities to focus on issues related to land change in
terms of its quality and resources and the inhabitants of the Ger areas in further policy and
practical actions to respond climate change.
Adaptation assessment results have showed clearly that infrastructure services is the poorest,
and necessities for its development along with improvements of adequate governance in the
city. Improving disaster preparedness capacity at grassroots level with establishing early warning
serene and local disaster relief centers, and construction of paved roads in Ger areas, increasing
green energy utilization and expanding green area of the city should be among the highest
development priorities in the city. Improvement of social services, implementation of functional
disaster risk reduction, construction of adequate sanitation, footpath, provision public
transportation, solid waste management, and establishment and operation of public service
centers should be among the highest development priorities in the Ger areas of the city.
Mongolia has nationwide policy and program to respond climate change. Cities don’t have
those; rather they have action plans for implementation of national development programs. City
development policy division at UB city Governor Office is responsible for the implementation of
those programs. The Monitoring and Evaluation division is in charge of receiving the quarterly
progress on program implementation.
22
The framework to respond climate change in Ulaanbaatar city may include activities to protect
environment and people, property and habitat in emergency, sustain household livelihoods,
develop infrastructure and green economy, and govern balance and harmony that would be
implemented by joint efforts of the city government, residents and organizations.
23