Download Poster - Hans von Storch

Rezenter und erwarteter
Klimawandel im
Ostseebereich
- was wissen wir, was
wissen wir nicht?
Hans von Storch
Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht
Printed at
Hans von Storch
•
•
•
•
•
Klimaforscher
Spezialgebiet: Küstenklima,
also Windstürme, Sturmfluten,
Seegang, Nordsee, Ostsee,
Nordatlantik
Kooperation auch mit
Sozialwissenschaftlern
Direktor des Instituts für
Küstenforschung des
Helmholtz-Zentrums
Geesthacht
Mitglied des KlimaCampus
„CliSAP“ Hamburg
2
Anonyme Umfrage mit Turning Technology
Ich möchte, dass wir uns klarmachen, wes Geistes Kind
wir hier sind, und dass wir dazu eine kleine Umfrage
machen:
1. Bis zu 50 Stimmsender werden verteilt.
2. Sie brauchen diese kleinen Sender nicht anschalten.
3. Wenn Sie stimmen wollen, dann drücken Sie die
entsprechende Nummer.
4. Sobald Sie das getan haben, steigt der Zähler um 1.
5. Wenn alle gestimmt haben, wird das Gesamtergebnis
angezeigt.
6. Die Stimmabgabe ist anonym. Es ist möglich
festzustellen, welche Stimmabgaben von welchem
gerät gekommen ist, aber wir können nicht
feststellen, wer welches Gerät benutzt hat.
3
Einverstanden mit der Befragung?
Einverstanden mit der Befragung?
Ja
Nein
Mir egal
0%
0%
M
ir
eg
al
Ne
in
0%
Ja
1.
2.
3.
4
4
3. Dezember 2013 - Alfried Krupp Wissenschaftskolleg an der Universität Greifswald, Greifswald
Menschgemachter Klimawandel?
e
M
ei
nu
ng
.
0%
Ke
in
üb
er
ze
ug
t,
da
Ic
h
s..
ha
.
be
er
ns
th
af
te
Zw
...
0%
n
3.
0%
bi
2.
Ich bin überzeugt, dass wir derzeit einen
vor allem vom Menschen verursachten
Klimawandel erleben.
Ich habe ernsthafte Zweifel daran, dass wir
es mit einem vor allem vom Menschen
verursachten Klimawandel zu tun haben.
Keine Meinung.
Ic
h
1.
5
3. Dezember 2013 - Alfried Krupp Wissenschaftskolleg an der Universität Greifswald, Greifswald
5
Energiepolitik als Ausdruck von Klimapolitik
En
e.
..
e
di
di
e
3. Dezember 2013 - Alfried Krupp Wissenschaftskolleg an der Universität
Greifswald, Greifswald
Ic
h
gl
a
de
fin
Ic
h
be
fü
rw
Ic
h
En
er
ub
gi
e.
e
..
n
Ic
i
c
h
h
fa
t,
da
vo
ss
ri
si
...
er
e
ei
ne
an
...
W
ei
ss
ni
ch
t.
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
or
te
1. Ich befürworte die Energiewende weg
von Nuklear, Öl- und Kohleeinsatz.
2. Ich finde die Energiewende
unausgereift und mit zu hohen Kosten
verbunden.
3. Ich glaube nicht, dass der Stand der
Wissenschaft die Energiewende
legitimiert.
4. Ich favorisiere eine andere
Klimapolitik, etwa Anpassung nach
Bedarf oder Geoengineering.
5. Weiss nicht.
6
6
Extremereignisse
0%
0%
ic
ht
Un
se
re
W
ei
ss
n
...
ar
en
w
St
ür
m
e
ne
Ve
rs
t..
.
.
0%
ei
3.
ne
hm
e
2.
Ich nehme eine Verstärkung im letzten
Jahrzehnt von regionalen Sturmereignissen
wahr.
Unsere Stürme waren schon immer
gefährlich, aber eine systematische
Veränderung hin zu mehr oder stärkeren
Stürmen kann ich nicht feststellen.
Weiss nicht.
Ic
h
1.
3. Dezember 2013 - Alfried Krupp Wissenschaftskolleg an der Universität Greifswald, Greifswald
7
Rolle von Wissenschaft
ic
ht
W
is
se
ns
ch
W
ei
ss
n
..
ga
r.
...
.
3. Dezember 2013 - Alfried Krupp Wissenschaftskolleg an der Universität Greifswald, Greifswald
af
ts
ol
l
de
rP
...
af
ts
ol
l
de
rP
se
ns
ch
af
ts
ol
l
4.
0% 0% 0% 0%
W
is
3.
se
ns
ch
2.
Wissenschaft soll der Politik Empfehlungen
zum Umgang mit Problemen machen, wenn
es sich abzeichnet, dass ein gravierendes
Problem vorliegt.
Wissenschaft soll der Politik Empfehlungen
zum Umgang mit Problemen machen, wenn
ein Konsensus in der Wissenschaft
hergestellt ist.
Wissenschaft soll gar keine Empfehlungen
geben, sondern nur das Problem und
mögliche Lösungsstrategien beschreiben.
Weiss nicht.
W
is
1.
8
Zur Ostsee
Ich bin in ernsthafter Sorge um die Ostsee vor Allem wegen:
ro
ph
er
sc
i
hm eru
ng
ut
zu
Üb
n
er g...
fis
ch
Kl
un
im
g
a
M
eh wa
nd
Ke
r
el
in ere
er
Gr
de
ü
r F nde
ak
W tor
en
ei
ss
ni
ch
t.
Eu
t
el
tv
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Eutrophierung
Umweltverschmutzung (einschl.
verklappter Munition)
Überfischung
Klimawandel
Mehrere Gründe
Keiner der Faktoren
Weiss nicht.
Um
w
1.
2.
3. Dezember 2013 - Alfried Krupp Wissenschaftskolleg an der Universität Greifswald, Greifswald
9
BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin - BACC
An effort to establish which scientifically
legitimized knowledge about climate change
and its impacts is available for the Baltic Sea
catchment.
Approximately 80 scientists from 12 countries
have documented and assessed the published
knowledge in 2008 in BACC.
The assessment has been
accepted by the intergovernmental HELCOM
commission as a basis
for its future deliberations.
Printed at
BACC is not assessment of the
state of climate, climate change and impact
BUT
an assessment of the scientific knowledge
about climate, climate change and impact
= agreement / disagreement / gaps
in the Baltic Sea region.
Printed at
Principles
→ The assessment is a synthesis of material drawn
comprehensively from the available scientifically legitimate
literature (e.g. peer reviewed literature, conference
proceedings, reports of scientific institutes).
→ Influence or funding from groups with a political,
economical or ideological agenda is not allowed;
however, questions from such groups are welcome.
→ If a consensus view cannot be found in the above defined
literature, this is clearly stated and the differing views are
documented. The assessment thus encompasses the
knowledge about what scientists agree on but also identify
cases of disagreement or knowledge gaps.
→ The assessment is evaluated by independent scientific
reviewers.
Printed at
BACC (2008) results – in short
→ Presently a warming is going on in the Baltic Sea region,
and will continue throughout the 21st century.
→ BACC considers it plausible that this warming is at least
partly related to anthropogenic factors.
→ So far, and in the next few decades, the signal
is limited to temperature and directly related variables,
such as ice conditions.
→ Later, changes in the water cycle are expected to become
obvious.
→ This regional warming will have a variety of effects on
terrestrial and marine ecosystems – some predictable such
as the changes in the phenology others so far hardly
predictable.
Printed at
Timeline of BACC 2
1st BACC II Working Group meeting (Helsinki)
2nd BACC II Working Group meeting (Lund), nomination of
BACC II Science Steering Committee (SSC) and suggestions
for BACC II Lead Authors
June 2010:
BACC II Lead Authors approved
November 2010: 1st meeting of BACC II Lead Authors and SSC (Göteborg)
March 2011:
2nd meeting of BACC II Lead Authors and SSC (Hamburg)
February 2012: 3rd meeting of BACC II Lead Authors and SSC (Copenhagen)
July 2012:
Chapters ready for external review
September 2012: BACC II Conference in Tallinn
End 2012:
External peer-review completed
Mid 2013:
Draft BACC II report finished
Late 2013:
HELCOM Thematic Report published
End 2013/2014: BACC II book published
January 2009:
April 2010:
Printed at
Contributing authors
Printed at
Overall Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New assessment finds results of BACC I valid
Significant detail and additional material has been found and assessed.
Some contested issues have been reconciled (e.g. sea surface temperature
trends)
Ability to run multi-model ensembles seems a major addition; first signs of
detection studies, but attribution still weak
Regional climate models still suffer from partly severe biases; the effect of
certain drivers (aerosols, land use change) on regional climate statistics
cannot be described by these models.
Data homogeneity is still a problem and sometimes not taken seriously
enough
The issue of multiple drivers on ecosystems and socio-economy is
recognized, but more efforts to deal with are needed
In many cases, the relative importance of different drivers, not only
climate change, needs to be evaluated.
Printed at
Overall Summary of BACC-2
•
•
•
•
•
•
Estimates of future deposition and fluxes of substances like sulphur and nitrogen
oxides, ammonium, ozone, carbondioxide depend on future emissions and climate
conditions. Atmospheric factors are relatively less important than emission changes.
In the narrow coastal zone, where climate change and land uplift act together plant
and animal communities had to adapt to changing environment conditions.
Climate change is a compounding factor to major drivers of freshwater
biogeochemistry, but evidence is still often based on small scale. The effect of climate
change cannot be quantified yet on a Baltic Basin wide-scale.
Scenario simulations suggest that most probably the Baltic Sea will become more acid
in the future.
Increased oxygen deficiency, increased temperature, changed salinity and increased
acidification will impact the marine ecosystem in several ways and may erode the
resilience of the ecosystem.
Increasing need for adaptive management strategies (forestry, agriculture, urban
complexes) in the Baltic Sea Basin that deal with both climate change but also
emissions of nutrients, aerosols, carbondioxide and other substances.
Printed at
Summer temperature anomalies shown as deviations from the modern value. Lake
Kurjanovas, south eastern Latvia, 56°31'N (Heikkilä and Seppä 2010).
The Baltic Sea region has seen remarkable changes since the end of last ice age
(last 10 – 12,000 years).
The externally forced climate variability in the Baltic Sea basin is most likely
attributable to orbital forcing at millennial time scales, to changes in solar
irradiance at multi-decadal or centennial timescales, and to volcanic activity at
multidecadal timescales. In addition to the external climate drivers factors, nonlinear mechanisms in the different components of the climate system and within
each subsystem give rise to internal climate variability at all timescales.
Printed at
Change during the last 200 years
In general, the conclusions from BACC I (2008) are confirmed.
New results include





Persistence of weather types has increased
Upwelling analysis
Evidence of recent sea water warming (indicated in BACC I, now verified)
More extensive results for several parameters, in particularly on sea level
Runoff explained by temperature, warming is associated with less runoff in
southern regions and more runoff in northern regions
Air temperature
The warming of the low level atmosphere
is larger in the Baltic Sea regions than the
global mean for the corresponding period.
Warming continued for the last decade
 Not in winter
 Largest in spring
 Largest for northern areas
No recent ”stagnation” except for winter.
Data sets
Year
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Northern area
0.11
0.10
0.15
0.08
0.10
Southern area
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.04
0.07
1 Linear surface air temperature trends (K per decade) for the period 1871-2011 for the Baltic Sea
Basin. Northern area is latitude > 60°N. Bold numbers are significant at the 0.05 level.
Data updated for BACCII from the CRUTEM3v dataset (Brohan et al. 2006)
Same for
1871-2004
(BACC I):
Annual and seasonal mean surface air temperature
anomalies for the Baltic Sea Basin 1871-2011, Blue colour
comprises the Baltic Sea basin to the north of 60°N, and red
colour to the south of that latitude.
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are not yet a perfect tool
→ Large biases in reproducing observed climate, in particular with the
energy and water cycle, both amounts, but also extremes
→ Inability to deal with other drivers, in particular aerosol loads and
changing land surface conditions
→ Disregard of dynamic coupling of Baltic Sea, regional atmosphere and
other compartments
→ Refer to Kjellström’s prsentation on Tuesday.
Simulated temperature bias
(◦C) w.r.t. E-OBS for 19612000. The maps show the
pointwise smallest (left),
median (middle) and largest
(right) bias taken from an
ensemble of 10 RCMs with
lateral boundary conditions
taken from ERA40
PERFORMANCE OF RCMS IN REPRODUCING THE CLIMATE
Simulated precipitation bias
(%) w.r.t. E-OBS for 19612000. The maps show the
pointwise smallest (left),
median (middle) and largest
(right) bias taken from an
ensemble of 10 RCMs with
lateral boundary conditions
taken from ERA40.
PERFORMANCE OF RCMS IN REPRODUCING STATISTICS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
Range of projected change of: Temperature – at the end of the 21st century
Range of projected change of: precipitation amount – at the end of the 21st century
Seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON)
and annual mean ensemble
average changes in sea-surface
salinity (in g/kg) between 20692098 and 1978-2007 using the
A1B and A2 emissions scenarios
(see Meier et al., 2012).
Given the problems of regional
atmospheric models with the
hydrological cycle, and the fact that so
far only a few simulations are
available, BACC advises to not take
this scenario for definite.
Environmental Impacts
→ The main changes in air pollution in the Baltic Sea region are due to changes
in emissions rather than climate-change itself
→ More riverine disolved organic matter, effects of climate on cultivated
watersheds unknown, both positive and negative feedbacks on nutrient
fluxes, agricultural practices will adopt fast.
→ Terrestrial ecosystems near the coast most prone to climate change;
significant increase in spruce growth in the North
→ Higher turnover of algal biomass may lead to larger anoxic areas; pH will
decrease
→ Regimes shifts in the Baltic Sea ecosystem have been observed which may
be related to climate variability;
→ Lower salinity may lead to less marine benthic species, unknown for pelagic
groups (more nutrients and DOM may result in opposite effects)
→ Few evidence for impacts of climate change as such
Terrestrial Ecosystems
 Higher efficiency in growing of
plants, but limitation by availability
of water
 Tolerance against stress is needed:
 Dryness
 Strong rain
 Freezing
 Acidification of soils
Projections until 2100
 More trees in the North (about 20%), where enough water is available, but
 Weaker growth in the south (about 10%), where water is limited.
Marine ecosysteme
Higher Temperature are expected to go along with






Stronger growth
Earlier plankton blooms
Modification of species composition
Possibly advantages for blue algae
Invading of foreign species
Threatening of ringed seals (loss of ice cover)
and lower salinity
 Changing species composition; immigration of new species
 Impact on oxygen supply in deeper weaters, which may be associated iwth problems for fisheries
(cod)
 Distribution and composition of zooplankton (food for small fish and fish larvae) and bottomdwelling organisms.
Agriculture and forestry:
Improving conditions for forest management in
the north may be counteracted by unfavorable
impacts in the south.
The review adds on BACC I: changing conditions
with different impacts from north to south.
• North: Growing conditions tend to improve
• South: Declining growing conditions (reduced
precipitation and increasing temperatures)
• This will also cause changes in forest
structures and diversity.
30
Urban complexes:
Impacts differ due to location of urban complexes, be they in the northern or
southern part of the catchment, directly at the Baltic Sea coast or more
inland. Every urban complex is a unique mixture of infrastructure and urban
services, inhabitants, natural resources and green spaces, built structures,
economic and societal factors - hardly possible to generalize potential extent
of climate change impacts from single-case studies.
Climate change impacts, which affect urban services and technical
infrastructure, building, housing and settlement structures mostly: sea level rise, extreme events like storm surges and changing
precipitation patterns, flooding expected increase related to heavy
precipitation events
As the net-sea level rise is expected to be higher in the southern Baltic Sea,
southern coastal cities such as Gdansk will be more affected.
31
Changes in coastal erosion and coastlines over the last years:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Higher water overflow on the coast during storm surges, caused by sea level
rise and beach lowering.
Bigger rate of erosion of beaches, dunes and cliffs. Now each Baltic country
notices up to 2 m coast erosion per year on average in most threatened
places.
Coasts withdraw with higher rate. Till end of 20th century it was 0.2 to 0.5
m/y, and now it is 0.5 to 1 m/y
After above average storm surge (differently in each country) retreat is 5-10
m of the land.
More flooding of low lying areas or river mouths and lagoons.
Longer coast sections are subject to protection measures.
Detection and Attribution
→ Detection of non-natural influence on regional warming. Can be explained
only by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Present trend consistent
with model scenarios.
→ Detection of non-natural component in trends of precipitation amounts;
present trends much larger than what is anticipated by models; thus no
consistent explanation for the time being.
→ Lack of studies on detection of changes in other variables
(e.g. snow cover, runoff, sea ice)
→ Lack of studies of the effect of other drivers (reduction of industrial aerosols,
land use change)
Printed at
Observed changes of 2m Temperature
(1980-2009) in comparision with GS signal
Observed trends in 1980-2009
Projected GS signal, A1B scenario
10 simulations, ENSEMBLES
95th-%tile of „non-GHG“
variability, derived from 2,000-year
palaeo-simulations
The spread of trends of 10 RCM
simulations
MAM
JJA
SON
Annual
 GHG forcing allows for reconstructing the recently observed warming over the Baltic Sea
area
 None of the 10 regional climate projections capture the observed warming, winter (DJF).
Observed (CRU3, GPCC6, GPCP)
Projected GS signal (ENSEMBLES)
In winter (DJF) non of the 59
segments derived from 2,000 year
palaeo-simulations yield a positive
trend of precipitation as strong as
that observed. There is less than
5% probability that observed
positive trends in winter be due to
natural (internal + external)
variability alone.
In spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and Annual trends externally forced changes are not detectable.
However observed trends lie within the range of changes described by 10 climate change scenarios,
indicating that also in the scenarios an external forcing is not detectable (< 5% risk).
In autumn (SON) the observed negative trends of precipitation contradicts the upward trends suggested
by 10 climate change scenarios, irrespective of the observed dataset used.
Overall Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New assessment finds results of BACC I valid
Significant detail and additional material has been found and assessed.
Some contested issues have been reconciled (e.g. sea surface temperature
trends)
Ability to run multi-model ensembles seems a major addition; first signs of
• Presently
a warming
is goingstill
on in
the Baltic Sea region,
detection
studies,
but attribution
weak
st century.
andclimate
will continue
throughout
Regional
models
still suffer the
from21partly
severe biases; the effect of
• BACC considers it plausible that this warming is at least
certain drivers (aerosols, land use change) on regional climate statistics
partly related to anthropogenic factors.
cannot
bynext
these
models.
• Sobe
far,described
and in the
few
decades, the signal is limited to
Data homogeneity
is still
a problem
andvariables,
sometimes
not
seriously
temperature and
directly
related
such
astaken
ice conditions.
• Later, changes in the water cycle are expected to become obvious.
enough
• issue
This of
regional
warming
have a variety
effects on
The
multiple
driverswill
on ecosystems
andofsocio-economy
is
terrestrial and marine ecosystems –
recognized, but more efforts to deal with are needed
some predictable such as the changes in the phenology
In many
cases,
relativepredictable.
importance of different drivers, not only
others
so the
far hardly
climate change, needs to be evaluated.
Printed at
Overall Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
Estimates of future deposition and fluxes of substances like sulphur and nitrogen
oxides, ammonium, ozone, carbondioxide depend on future emissions and climate
conditions. Atmospheric factors are relatively less important than emission changes.
In the narrow coastal zone, where climate change and land uplift act together plant
and animal communities had to adapt to changing environment conditions.
Climate change is a compounding factor to major drivers of freshwater
biogeochemistry, but evidence is still often based on small scale. The effect of climate
change cannot be quantified yet on a Baltic Basin wide-scale.
Scenario simulations suggest that most probably the Baltic Sea will become more acid
in the future.
Increased oxygen deficiency, increased temperature, changed salinity and increased
acidification will impact the marine ecosystem in several ways and may erode the
resilience of the ecosystem.
Increasing need for adaptive management strategies (forestry, agriculture, urban
complexes) in the Baltic Sea Basin that deal with both climate change but also
emissions of nutrients, aerosols, carbondioxide and other substances.
Printed at
Wissensdefizite in Bezug auf Ostseeraum
1.Welche Wirkung hatte die Reduktion von Freisetzung von
industriellen Aerosolen auf das regionale Klima des Ostseeraums?
2.Welche Wirkung hatte die Veränderung von Landnutzung,
einschl. Urbanisierung auf das regionale und lokale Klima im
Ostseeraum?
3. Ist zu erwarten, dass die Ostsee salzärmer wird?
4. Wie wird das Ökosystem der Ostsee auf den Klimawandel
plausiblerweise reagieren?
5. Wie wird sich der Meeresspiegel in der Ostsee verändern?
6. Wie wird sich die Erosion längs der Küsten verändern?
7. Inwieweit behindern die systematischen Modellfehler die
Möglichkeit, realistische Szenarien (bedingte Vorhersagen) für das
kommenden Jahrhundert abzuleiten?
Printed at
Printed at