Download Global shifts: Climate change

Global shifts: Climate Change
This information sheet offers some general information in relation to climate change
and its impacts on how we will live in the future.
Global
In 1994 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change1 came into
force and has been ratified by 197 countries (including Australia). The objective of the
Convention is to stabilise the amount of greenhouse gases arising from human activity
in the atmosphere to levels that would not interfere with the climate system. The most
recent elaboration of the Convention is the Paris Agreement, achieved in 2015 and will
come into force on 4 November 2016 now that 81 of the 197 countries have ratified it.2
Greenhouse gases are made up of carbon dioxide (majority) methane, nitrous oxide
and fluorinated gases and are predominantly generated through the burning of fossil
fuels, deforestation and the rotting of organic materials. The way in which many human
activities such as generation of energy, transportation, industry, land use and waste
disposal are currently conducted release these gases to the atmosphere.
The Paris Agreement’s aim is to keep global temperature rise this century to below 2°C
above pre-industrial levels and ideally, below 1.5°C. This will require change to
financial flows, new technology and enhanced national capacity building. These targets
are ambitious and will require a significant increase in national efforts.
This agreement means:

Greater efforts will be made around the world to transform national economies
and societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Cities and businesses will
be expected to keep up with this change to remain competitive.

A certain amount of climate change will happen despite all of these efforts and
countries, cities and communities will have to adapt to the consequences.
What does climate change look like for Greater Geelong?
CSIRO in 2015 published its projections for climate change in the southern parts of
Victoria and Tasmania3. It is predicting:
1

Higher sea levels of between 0.07-0.19m by 2030 and between 0.27-0.89m by
2090

Higher mean temperatures of between 0.4-1.1°C by 2030 and between 1.14.0°C by 2090

Double the number of days above 35°C by 2090

A harsher fire-weather climate but cannot predict the magnitude

Decreased winter and spring rainfall but more frequent storms

Increased evaporation rates and reduced soil moisture and run-off.
United Nations, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992.
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf
3 CSIRO, Climate Change in Australia-Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions-Southern
Slopes Cluster Report, CSIRO 2015.
2
The CSIRO report describes the change to Melbourne’s climate against various global
emission scenarios. If the Paris Agreement is achieved (1.5°C) Melbourne’s climate will
be more like the current climate in Wangaratta in north-east Victoria (warmer with same
rainfall) or Clare in South Australia (warmer and drier). If global warming rises to 1.53.0°C, it will be more like Cowra in NSW (hotter with same rainfall). It can be assumed
that similar circumstances will apply to Greater Geelong.
The City of Greater Geelong has strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to a
changing climate. Follow the links below for further reading on local action.

ClimateWorks Australia, Low Carbon Growth Plan for Greater Geelong 2015
Update
http://www.futureproofinggeelong.com/images/Geelong_LCGP_Update_2015_
FINAL.pdf

City of Greater Geelong, Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, 2011
https://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/common/public/documents/8ce5879f7f85
db8-Climate%20Change%20Adaptation%20Strategy.PDF
Greater Geelong could consider

transforming its business to keep pace with international market expectations in
light of the Paris Agreement and with expected changes to the local climate

keeping pace with technology change, particularly in the generation and
efficient use of energy and water

modifying its public and built environment and infrastructure to better cope with
hotter days and more intense storms

modifying horticultural and agricultural practice to adapt to a drier and hotter
climate

modifying coastal management practice

taking advantage of changed global and national financial flows that will follow
implementation of the Paris Agreement.
We need to think about how we turn these challenges into opportunities in
Greater Geelong.