Download The Development Perspective of the ECE Region

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The Economic Impacts of Climate
Change in the ECE Region
Ján Kubiš
EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
Economic Commission for Europe
Dialogue of the Executive Secretaries
New York
October 2009
Today’s Presentation
1)
2)
3)
4)
The effects of climate change in the
ECE region
Economic impacts of climate change in
the region: adaptation and mitigation
Regional/global efforts and initiatives
to address the impacts of climate
change
The work of ECE in climate change
1) The effects of climate
change in the ECE region
Main effects of climate
change in the region
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Warming in 21st century projected to
continue at rate somewhat greater than
global mean
Changes in precipitation mean that, in
general, wet areas will get wetter, while dry
areas become dryer
Higher intensity and frequency of extreme
weather events
Sea level rises
Observed annual average
temperature
Global (left) and Europe (right)
Main climate change effects
in Europe
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Annual mean warming in 2080 to 2099 will be
between 2.2 to 5.3°C, compared to period 1980 to
1999
Over same period, annual precipitation (rain, slow,
sleet or dew) is projected to increase by up to 16 %
in northern Europe, especially in winter, but to
decrease by between 4 and 27 % in Mediterranean
area
Summer droughts and heat waves will be more
likely, more intense and longer in central Europe and
in Mediterranean, rendering region more vulnerable
to water stress and desertification
Snow season will become shorter and snow
depth will decrease, although this may not affect
coldest peaks of Europe
Main climate change effects
in Central Asia
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Warming over reference period is projected
to be 3.7°C, well above global mean
Summer precipitation will drop by up to
13 %, most markedly in the western part of
central Asia, while in winter, it will increase
around 4 %
Accompanied by increase in frequency of
very dry spring, summer and autumn
seasons
Main climate change effects
in North America
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At a projected 2 to 3°C, warming in most of NA
regions will exceed global mean
Northern regions are expected to be hardesthit by warming in winter, with projected
warming reaching 10°C. Hotter southwest areas
will get warmer mainly during summer months.
Precipitation will be around 20 % greater in
Canada and northeastern US, but lower in southwest
US. Southern Canada will become wetter in winter
and spring and drier in summer.
In most of region, snow season will be shorter.
2) The economic impacts
of climate change in the
ECE region
Main climate change impacts
across region
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Climate change in ECE region will have impact on access
to water resources, food and security, ecosystems,
human health and settlements/society
Extreme weather events, especially increased risks of
inland flash floods and coastal flooding and
increased erosion would have economy-wide effects
Heat waves and more wildfires will increase health risks
Mountainous areas will face reduced snow cover with
implications for winter tourism and extensive species
loss
In southern Europe, warming will reduce water
availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism
and crop productivity
There are clear links between climate change and
secondary and tertiary economic sectors such as
housing, transport and other infrastructure,
insurance and financial services
Impacts on water resources
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Water availability will rise in higher latitude regions
where rainfall is higher
Greater water scarcity in hotter areas due to reduced
rainfall and loss of snow meltwater
In Southern Europe, summer water availability could
drop 30% at 2°C warming
West Coast of USA could experience more erratic
water supply
Water shortages will increase investment required in
infrastructure, reduce agricultural output and
increase infrastructure damage from subsidence.
Negative implication for hydropower potential.
Impacts on food and
security
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Higher latitudes – Canada, Russia and N. Europe –
could initially see increase in crop yield but this is
expected to be short-lived due to crop tolerance
threshold
In lower latitude regions – Southern Europe,
Western USA – greater water stress will lead to
substantial declines in crop yields
Economic Impacts on the ECE
Region Are Moderate Compared
to Other Regions
GHG emissions in the ECE
region
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ECE region currently
accounts for 49.5% of
global GHG
emissions and 50.8%
of global GDP (PPP)
On per capita basis:
 North America - 3
times world average
 EU and Russia – 1.5
times world average
Measurable progress
has been made in
reducing emissions
under UNFCCC
Total GHG emissions for 37 ECE countries reporting to UNFCCC (exluding LULUCF), 1990 - 2007, Index
(1990=100)
102.0
100.0
98.0
96.0
94.0
TOTAL (
92.0
90.0
88.0
86.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
GHG abatement potential
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Abatement potential varies
considerably across region, due to:
Sectoral split of economy
 Carbon intensity starting point of sector in
country
 Country’s economic growth
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GHG emissions associated with GDP per
capita – large variation across the
region
Huge potential to reduce
GHG emissions in region
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ECE region’s abatement
potential up to 2030
approximately 10.2 GtCO2e
per year
Represents approximately 45 to -55% vs. 2030
business-as-usual (BAU) or
-35 to -45% vs. 2005
Abatement potential mainly
in energy efficiency, lowcarbon energy supply,
terrestrial carbon
(agriculture, forestry),
technology, behavioural
change
Emissions and abatement potential
by region
GtCO2e per annum; 2030
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10
8
6
4
2
0
BAU emissions
North America
Western Europe
Abatement
potential
Eastern Europe
Costs of reducing GHG
emissions in the region
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Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0 (by McKinsey) shows
the abatement cost in EUR per tCO2e beyond BAU
Shows highest potential in building sector (lighting,
electronics, insulation retrofit), transport sector (motor
systems efficiency), waste recycling and electricity from
landfills, all highly relevant areas for the ECE region.
3) Regional efforts and
initiatives to address the
impacts of climate
change in the ECE region
The ECE Region and the UN
Efforts to Reduce Emissions
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Europe has led the
global effort to
control GHG
emissions
30 of the 31
countries that
committed to
emission reductions
under the Kyoto
Protocol of the
UNFCCC, i.e. Annex
I countries, are ECE
economies
Other initiatives to cut GHG
emissions
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European Union:
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EU cap and trade: Emission Trading System (EU ETS)
• 2nd phase (2008 – 2012) covers 10,000 installations, 50% of EU’s CO2 emissions
• Largest existing carbon market
• 3rd phase (2012 – 2020): heavy industry will contribute significantly to overall
target of cutting GHGs, no more free permits
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EU Directive 20x20x20
• 20% reduction in GHG emissions
• 20% increase in efficiency
• 20% share for renewables
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The US:
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EU Directive on energy performance of buildings
Energy Independence & Security Act (2007): Mandated increases in
product efficiency, biofuels, R&D
One-half of US states have implemented some mandate requiring a
percentage of electricity to be produced by renewables
Waxman-Markey legislation: Sets up a cap-and-trade system
Russia:
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Proposes to increase renewable energy production from 1% to 4.5% by
2020
Regional Coordination
Mechanism
 Under RCM, thematic working group
on climate change established to:
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Design a regional action plan on climate
change adaptation and mitigation
Prepare a system-wide regional road
map for the implementation of COP-15
outcome
Coordinate and exchange information on
financing, adaptation/mitigation, advocacy
work
Regional climate change
compendium
UNECE has compiled a regional climate
change compendium, with inputs by all
RCM members
 This lists all organisations’ climate
change activities, distinguishing
between mitigation, adaptation and
cross-cutting issues
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4) The work of ECE in
support of climate
change action
ECE Activities Addressing
Climate Change –
Reducing GHG emissions
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ECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations possible strategy for
GHG abatement in automotive sector through:
• improved energy efficiency and use of sustainable biofuels
• supporting market of plug-in hybrid vehicles
• electric vehicles in longer run (2025–2040).
Currently developing market fuel quality standards, thus enabling vehicles
to use fuels that minimize vehicle emission levels
Integrated transport emissions mitigation, including eco-driving, better
transport infrastructure, including traffic management systems, to foster the
development of intelligent transport systems and their implementation in all
transport modes and infrastructure
Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Coal Mine Methane (CMM) promotes recovery
and use of methane gas from coal mines to minimize GHG emissions
Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Cleaner Electricity Production from Coal and
other Fossil Fuels reviews prospects for cleaner electricity production from
fossil fuels and measures or incentives to promote investment in cleaner
electricity production.
1979 ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) and
its 1999 Gothenburg Protocol aim to cut emissions of air pollutants, inter
alia sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and non-methane volatile
organic compounds (NMVOCs), which have direct or indirect impact on global
warming
ECE Activities Addressing
Climate Change - Mitigation
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Promoting energy efficiency
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ECE Energy Efficiency 21 (EE21) programme to enhance
countries’ energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions
through more efficient production, conservation and use of all
energy sources
Global Energy Efficiency 21 Project (GEE21) transfers
experience of ECE energy efficiency projects to other regions.
Aims to identify needs, obstacles and best practices for the
formation of an energy efficiency market
Programme to achieve maximal energy efficiency in region’s
housing
Land use, land use change and sustainable
forests
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Project to strengthen sustainable biomass supply, based on
agro- and wood residues, from selected countries in the
UNECE region to energy producers in the EU. Focus on
enterprise development and innovation
ECE Activities Addressing
Climate Change - Adaptation
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Supporting design and implementation of
adaptation strategies
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Public-private partnerships in infrastructure for climate change
adaptation
Integrated water resource management
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UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary
Watercourses and International Lakes (Water Convention) and
its Protocol on Water and Health establish joint or coordinated
surveillance and early-warning systems, contingency plans and
response capacities, as well as mutual assistance to respond to
outbreaks or incidents of water-related disease, especially
those arising from extreme weather events
Based on integrated water resources management, the
Guidance on water and adaptation to climate change provides
advice on how to assess impacts of climate change on water
quantity and quality, how to perform risk assessment, including
health risk assessment, how to gauge vulnerability, and how to
design and implement appropriate adaptation measures
ECE Activities Addressing
Climate Change – crosscutting issues
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Strengthening institutions and processes for
regional environmental governance and for
national mitigation plans and adaptation
strategies
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UNECE Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a
Transboundary Context (Espoo Convention) and its Protocol on
Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA), not yet in force, will ensure
that Parties integrate consideration of environment into their plans and
programmes at very early planning stage. SEA will be used to
introduce climate change considerations into development planning.
Financing climate change mitigation and
adaptation and boosting technology transfer
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Financing Energy Efficiency Investments for Climate Change Mitigation
project, with budget of ca. US$ 7.5m, to promote investment climate
in which self-sustaining energy efficiency and renewable energy
projects can be identified, developed, financed and implemented by
local municipalities, factories or energy utilities. Participating
countries: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Kazakhstan, Rep. of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia,
the former Yugoslav Rep. of Macedonia, and Ukraine.
ECE Activities Addressing
Climate Change – crosscutting issues
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Advocacy and access to information
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UNECE Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decisionmaking and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters (Aarhus Convention)
and its Protocol on Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers (PRTRs) constitutes
the only legally binding instrument to implement principle 10 of Rio Declaration,
which provides for participation of citizens in environmental issues by giving
them appropriate access to the information concerning the environment held by
public authorities, including access to judicial or administrative proceedings,
redress and remedy. Access to scientifically based information and public
participation in decision-making on environmental issues are widely recognized
as an important foundation for climate change action.
Strategy for Education for Sustainable Development integrates key themes of
sustainable development, including climate change, into all education systems.
ESD offers an essential way to shape knowledge and attitudes.
Environment Performance Reviews: these include chapters on climate change
or related issues which provide a comprehensive analysis of instruments used
in the context of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, and
a means to offer important policy recommendations.
The Transport Health and Environment Pan-European Programme (THE PEP), a
joint project of ECE and the World Health Organization Regional Office for
Europe, aims to achieve more sustainable transport patterns and a better
reflection of environmental and health concerns in transport policy. In
particular, THE PEP also promotes sustainable urban transport, including
alternative modes of transport.
ECE Activities Addressing
Climate Change – crosscutting issues
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Monitoring, evaluation and analysis
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Reviewing possibility of upgrading statistical work based on UNFCCC
guidelines on compilation of emission inventories and UN Committee
of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting (UNCEEA) to
ensure that statistics on emissions become part of regular production
and dissemination process of official national statistics.
European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) under LRTAP
Convention monitors and models air quality, and is involved in
reporting and estimating emissions. International working groups
provide long-term monitoring of data that can identify changes that
might be associated with a changing climate. EMEP is also responsible
for integrated assessment modelling work to analyse environmental
effects and to calculate the necessary emission abatement and
related costs. In this way, cost-effective pollution control strategies
can achieve the desired environmental targets at least cost. Recent
use of Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies
(GAINS) integrated assessment model, developed by the
Convention’s Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling, has
explored synergies and trade-offs between emissions of air
pollutants.
ECE Activities Addressing
Climate Change – crosscutting issues
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Monitoring, evaluation and analysis
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Monitoring and analysis of forestry-related indicators, and promoting
policy forums on climate change in the forest sector, as part of its
work to promote sustainable forest management. Collects basic data
on forest resource assessment (e.g. carbon sequestration and storage
in forests) and the production of and trade in forest products (e.g.
harvested wood products, substitution by wood of other, more
carbon-intensive materials). It contributes to policy monitoring by
reporting on qualitative indicators of sustainable forest management
and by publishing a chapter in the Forest Products Annual Market
Review on policies, which in recent years has included a
comprehensive update on climate change policies affecting the forest
sector.
ECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations (WP.29)
working group developing worldwide harmonized light vehicle
emission test procedures