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Adaptation, Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Assessment Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research Symposium on Global Change Research March 23, Canberra Roger N. Jones Atmospheric Research Risk Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an adverse event or outcome How does this relate to Article 2 of the UNFCCC? Atmospheric Research Article 2 UNFCCC Consequence Aims to prevent dangerous Hazard anthropogenic climate change by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions, thus allowing Management options Through adaptation and mitigation Ecosystems to adapt naturally Management Food security to be maintained criteria Sustainable development to proceed Atmospheric Research What is dangerous climate change? This is a value judgement best assessed by policymakers, stakeholders and the community. Research can help with problem definition, plausibility and likelihood of various aspects Global thresholds of criticality: grounded ice sheet melts, N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions, Amazon wilts and burns in heat and drought Local thresholds of criticality: any activity where impacts become non-viable with no reasonable substitute or the harm caused exceeds given levels of tolerance Atmospheric Research Attaching likelihood What is the likelihood of exceeding given levels of criticality without risk management? What type and level of management is needed to reduce these risks? These questions can be assessed on a range of scales Atmospheric Research Risk management Mitigation – reduces climate hazards Adaptation – reduces the consequences for a given level of climate-related hazard Adaptation may act to: • reduce harm, • take advantage of benefits, and • modify ongoing change processes Atmospheric Research Linking climate to adaptation over time Climate system Impacted activity Socioeconomic system Current climate Current adaptations Future climate Future adaptations Atmospheric Research Measuring the ability to cope Loss Profit Loss Loss Coping Range Vulnerable Critical Threshold Probability Vulnerable Profit Coping Range Critical Threshold Atmospheric Research Coping under climate change Stationary Climate & Coping Range Changing Climate Vulnerable Coping Range Vulnerable Stationary Climate & Coping Range Changing Climate Vulnerable Adaptation Coping Range Planning Horizon Vulnerable Atmospheric Research Four pillars of climate risk analysis • Most systems affected by climate variability have evolved to cope with that variability to some extent • Climate change will mainly be felt as changes to climate variability and extremes. • Without adaptation, damages will increase with successively higher levels of global warming • Critical thresholds occurring at low levels of global warming and sea level rise are much more likely to be exceeded than those occurring at higher levels Atmospheric Research Cumulative Exposure Time (Days) Bleaching thresholds 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 28.5 29 29.5 30 30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5 Temperature (°C) Magnetic Is Davies Rf Myrmidon Rf Atmospheric Research Simulated historical bleaching events at Magnetic Island Days Bleaching Bleaching Degree Days 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1-Jul-90 1-Jul-92 1-Jul-94 1-Jul-96 1-Jul-98 1-Jul-00 Year Bleach days Bleach Degree Days Atmospheric Research Mortality threshold Davies °C above bleaching threshold Keppels 1st estim. Keppels 2nd estim. 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 10 20 30 Cumulative days exposure Atmospheric Research Bleaching severity Bleaching level Impact Recovery Bleaching Loss of color <1 year + 0.5°C Some mortality (e.g. 1998, 2002) 1-3 years + 1.0°C Widespread mortality (transplant experiments) Not experienced – but worse Not experienced – but even worse 3-? years Not experienced – catastrophic? Decades + + 1.5°C + 2.0°C + 2.5°C Longer Longer Atmospheric Research Warming (°C) Bleaching risk as a function of warming 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1990 Bleaching+2.5 100% Bleaching+2.5 >50% Bleaching+2.0 >50% Bleaching+1.5 >50% Bleaching+1.0 >50% Bleaching+0.5 >50% Bleaching >50% Bleaching <50% 0 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Year Global warming Upper limit of possibility 50% likely to be exceeded 100% likely to be exceeded Atmospheric Research When is the coping range of coral reef communities exceeded? • Physical bleaching rates • Ecosystem damage • People’s livelihoods affected (e.g. fishing, tourism) • Policy objectives • Species/ecosystem rights to exist • Are we happy with algal mats and seaweed? Atmospheric Research Bioclimatic thresholds exceeded as a function of warming 8 7 Warming (°C) 6 5 4 2100 3 2050 2 1 2030 0 0 10 20 30 40 Number of Species Atmospheric Research Macquarie River Catchment Macquarie Marshes Major Areas of Abstraction Burrendong Dam Macquarie R Contributing Area Area ~ 75,000 km2 P = 1000 to <400 mm. Major dams: Burrendong and Windamere Water demands: irrigation agriculture; Macquarie Marshes; town supply Most flow from upper catchment runoff Most demand in the lower catchment Windamere Dam Atmospheric Research Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows - historical climate and 1996 rules 100 Flow (Gl x 10) 80 1,000,000 60 40 100,000 20 10,000 1890 Irrigation allocation (%) 10,000,000 0 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Year Allocations Marshes Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds Macquarie River Catchment Irrigation 5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right Wetlands 10 consecutive years below bird breeding events Both thresholds are exceeded if mean streamflow decreases • by 10% under a drought-dominated climate, • by 20% under a normal climate and • by 30% under a flood-dominated climate Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2030 DDR N or m a l FD R -10 -20 -30 C um u la tiv e P rob ability 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 10 0 -40 C ha nge in sup ply (% ) B u r ren d on g M a rsh es Irr ig ation Atmospheric Research Change in risk as a function of global warming 6 Warming (°C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 Year 2070 2090 100 0 -100 0 Change in mean annual flow (%) Upper limit 5th Percentile 50th Percentile 95th Percentile Lower limit 50 100 Probability of threshold exceedance Flood-dominated Long-term mean Drought-dominated Atmospheric Research Metrics for measuring costs • • • • • Monetary losses (gains) Loss of life Change in quality of life Species and habitat loss Distributional equity Atmospheric Research Estimating ‘dangerous climate change’ Assumptions 1. Atmospheric CO2 354–1500 ppm 2. Climate sensitivity 1.5–4.5°C 3. Non-CO2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm-2 Randomly sampled at uniform distribution Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation 9 8 Probability (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Temperature at stabilisation Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation Probability of exceedance (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Temperature at stabilisation Atmospheric Research Probabilities of meeting temperature targets at given levels of CO2 stabilisation Probability of meeting target 100 80 Prob <1.5 Prob <2 Prob <2.5 Prob <3 Prob <3.5 Prob <4 Prob <4.5 Prob <5 Prob <5.5 Prob <6 60 40 20 0 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 CO2 at stabilisation Atmospheric Research Estimating ‘dangerous climate change’ - Take 2 Assumptions 1. Atmospheric CO2 354–1000 ppm (uniform) 2. Climate sensitivity Expert (Forrest et al. non linear) 3. Non-CO2 forcing 0.5–3.5Wm-2 , linked to CO2 (non linear) Randomly sampled Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation Probability of exceedance (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Temperature at stabilisation Atmospheric Research Temperature at stabilisation Probability of exceedance (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Temperature at stabilisation Atmospheric Research Adaptation and mitigation • Adaptation increases the coping range through biological and social means • Mitigation reduces the magnitude and frequency of greenhouse-related climate hazards Therefore, they are complementary, not interchangeable. They also reduce different areas of climate uncertainty Atmospheric Research Moving forward Adaptation Most suited to impacts vulnerable to current climate risks or small changes in climate change (These are the most likely to be affected) Cannot cope with large changes or many impacts (too expensive and difficult) Adaptation will be local and mainly shorterterm adjustments Mitigation Reduces climate hazards (e.g. global warming) progressively from the top down. Unlikely to prevent a certain level of climate change – adaptation will be needed for such changes. Mitigation that presents as a cost now will become profitable when damages become more apparent and BAU for the energy system changes to low emission operation Atmospheric Research Low probability, extreme outcomes Least likely Moderately likely Considerable damage to most systems Increased damage to many systems, fewer benefits Highly likely Almost certain Damage to the most sensitive, many benefits Happening now Vulnerable to current climate Probability Consequence Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming Consequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming Risk = Probability × Consequence Activities most at risk Those where • critical thresholds are exceeded at low levels of global warming, • adaptive capacity is low and/or adaptation is prohibitively expensive, difficult or unknown and • the consequences of exceeding those thresholds are judged to be serious Atmospheric Research