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What Lies Ahead
Thomas C. Peterson
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
Asheville, North Carolina
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Outline of the talk:
• The basic physics of climate change
science
• Implications of this physics
– On temperature and precipitation
• Projected changes relevant to the plant
sector
• A bit on impacts
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
We need the greenhouse effect
• The Earth’s surface temperature is
~60ºF
• Without the greenhouse effect it would
be ~5ºF
• But humans are changing the radiative
properties of the atmosphere and
thereby the greenhouse effect
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Climate Forcing Summary
Ravishankara (2006)
Warming versus cooling effects are like the tortoise versus the hare.
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Do you believe in global warming?
• I believe in quantum physics.
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Quantum physics tells us that
• Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed
and radiated in very small particle-like
packets of energy called quanta
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Quantum physics tells us that
• Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed
and radiated in very small particle-like
packets of energy called quanta
• Each molecule can absorb and radiate
quanta at different wavelengths
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Quantum physics tells us that
• Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed
and radiated in very small particle-like
packets of energy called quanta
• Each molecule can absorb and radiate
quanta at different wavelengths
• Two atom molecules can absorb very little
IR energy
– E.g., Nitrogen (N2) and Oxygen (O2)
• 98% of the atmosphere
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Quantum physics tells us that
• Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed
and radiated in very small particle-like
packets of energy called quanta
• Each molecule can absorb and radiate
quanta at different wavelengths
• Two atom molecules can absorb very little
IR energy
– E.g., Nitrogen (N2) and Oxygen (O2)
• 98% of the atmosphere
• Three or more atom molecules do absorb
and radiate in the IR
– E.g., Carbon Dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H2O),
methane (CH4)
• 2% of the atmosphere
• CO2 only 0.04% of the atmosphere
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Are CO2 and other greenhouse gasses really
responsible for changing the global temperature?
• Ice cores can give us the long view
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Are CO2 and other greenhouse gasses really
responsible for changing the global temperature?
• The long
view says
they are
definitely
related
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Vostock ice core data from Petit et al., 1999; current
CO2 data
2007)
Asheville,
NCfrom NOAA
March(Tans
22, 2012
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide is
predicted to rise to concentrations
not seen in perhaps 25 million years
– Pekar 2008
GCCI,132009
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Scenarios
• Future warming depends on how much
greenhouse gases are emitted
• Several different scenarios were developed
based on possible changes in
–
–
–
–
Population
Rate of adoption of new technologies
Economic growth
But not policies
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Data through 2007
GCCI 2009
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Kaya identity: CO2 emissions from human sources =
(population)x(GDP/capita)x(Energy/GDP)x(CO2/energy)
Hence 2008 emission likely to be lower than 2007’s.
Data for 2008 available in June 2009.
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
GCCI 2009
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Not from climate A to climate B
• Projections to end of century gives
appearance of climate change ending
then
• Plan for continual change
– Where the rate of change is most relevant
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Clausius–Clapeyron relationship
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
GCCI, 2009
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Humidity increases are greatest where
temperatures are highest
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
Peterson
et al., March
201122, 2012
Temperature increases are highest
where humidity is lowest
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
Peterson
et al., March
201122, 2012
GCCI, 2009
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
As climate
warms,
hardwood trees
out-compete
evergreen trees
that are
adapted to
colder
conditions
GCCI, 2009
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Projected Shifts in Forest Types
GCCI, 2009
Mid-range warming scenario
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
GCCI, 2009
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Ecosystems processes, such as those
that control growth and decomposition,
have been affected by climate change.
• Climate change has strong
influence on the processes that
control growth and development
in ecosystems
• Temperature increases can:
Kudzu vines
– Speed up plant growth, especially
weeds
– Rates of decomposition
– How rapidly the cycling of nutrients
occurs
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
Climate change is here and now
and in our own backyards
• In the U.S., spring now arrives an average of 10
days to two weeks earlier than 20 years ago
– The growing season is lengthening over much of the continental
U.S.
– Many migratory bird species arrive earlier
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville,
Photograph by Robert Lubeck: Animals Animals—Earth
Scenes NC
March 22, 2012
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012
The End
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC
March 22, 2012