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Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget updated to 2006 GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Chris Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Skee Houghton, Gregg Marland, Mike Raupach, Erik Buitenhuis, Nathan Gillett Last update: 13 June 2008 Outline 1. Recent global carbon trends (2000-2006) 2. The perturbation of the global carbon budget (1850-2006) 3. The declining efficiency of natural CO2 sinks 4. Attribution of the recent acceleration of atmospheric CO2 5. Conclusions and implications for climate change 1. Recent global carbon trends Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use Change Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm Tropical deforestation 13 Million hectares each year 2000-2005 Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1 Tropical Asia 0.6 Pg C y-1 Tropical Africa 0.3 Pg C y-1 1.5 Pg C y-1 FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use Change Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation 2000-2006 1.5 Pg C y-1 1.60 Africa 1.40 Latin America 1.20 S. & SE Asia 1.00 SUM (16% total emissions) 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 Houghton, unpublished 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 0.00 1850 Pg C yr-1 1.80 Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel 2006 Fossil Fuel: 8.4 Pg C Atmoapheric [CO2] (ppmv) Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y) [2006-Total Anthrop. Emissions:8.4+1.5 = 9.9 Pg] 9 Emissions 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1850 4001850 380 360 340 320 1870 1870 1890 1890 1910 1910 1930 1930 1950 1950 1970 1970 1990 1990 2010 2010 [CO2] 1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1 2000 - 2006: 3.3% y-1 300 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS 280 2 ppm/year Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy Carbon intensity (KgC/US$) Photo: CSIRO Kg Carbon Emitted to Produce 1 $ of Wealth 1960 1970 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1980 1990 2000 2006 Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions 1.5 Factor (relative to 1990) 1.4 1.5 World 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.9 FEmissions (emissions) PPopulation (population) gWealth = G/P= per capita GDP hCarbon = F/Gintensity of GDP 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 1980 1985 1990 Raupach et al 2007, PNAS 1995 2000 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 2005 1980 Regional Pathways (Kaya identity) C emissions Wealth pc Population C Intensity Developed Countries (-) Developing Countries Raupach et al 2007, PNAS Least Developed Countries Anthropogenic C Emissions: Regional Contributions 100% D3-Least Developed Countries 80% D2-Developing Countries 60% India 40% China FSU 20% 0% Cumulative Flux Emissions in 2004 [1751-2004] Flux Growth in 2004 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Japan EU Population USA in 2004 D1-Developed Countries Fossil Fuel Emiss 6 5 4 Year 2007 Atmospheric CO2 concentration: 382.6 ppm 35% above pre-industrial Atmoapheric [CO2] (ppmv) Atmospheric CO2 Concentration 3 2 1 0 4001850 380 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 [CO2] [CO2] 360 340 320 2 ppm/year 300 280 1850 0.81850 Temperature (deg C) 1870 0.6 1870 1870 1890 1890 1910 1910 1930 1930 1950 1950 1970 1970 1990 1990 2010 2010 Temperature 0.2 C/decade y-1 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1850 2000 - 2006: 1.9 ppm y-1 1870 NOAA 2007; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2. The perturbation of the global carbon cycle (1850-2006) Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) Source deforestation tropics extra-tropics 1.5 Sink CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) 2000-2006 Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) Source 7.6 deforestation Sink CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) fossil fuel emissions 2000-2006 Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1.5 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) Source 7.6 deforestation Sink CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) fossil fuel emissions 2000-2006 Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1.5 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) Source 7.6 deforestation atmospheric CO2 Sink CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) fossil fuel emissions 2000-2006 Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1.5 4.1 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) Source 7.6 deforestation atmospheric CO2 Sink CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) fossil fuel emissions 2000-2006 ocean Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1.5 4.1 2.2 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) 2000-2006 Source 7.6 deforestation atmospheric CO2 Sink CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) fossil fuel emissions land ocean Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1.5 4.1 2.8 2.2 CO2 flux (Pg CO2 y-1) Source Sink Carbon flux (Pg C y-1) Carbon intensity (KgC/US$) Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (1959-2006) Time (y) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 3. The declining efficiency of natural sinks Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2006) 1.5 Pg C y-1 4.1 Pg y-1 Atmosphere 45% 2.8 Pg y-1 Land 30% + 7.6 Pg C y-1 2.2 Pg y-1 Oceans 25% Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Climate Change at 55% Discount Natural sinks absorb 5 billions tons of CO2 globally every year, or 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions. Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Natural Sinks: Large Economic Subsidy Natural sinks are a huge subsidy to our global economy worth half a trillion Euros annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS). Canadell & Raupach 2008, Science Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction 1. The rate of CO2 emissions. 2. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans: – – Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, … Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, … Canadell et al. 2007, Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks % CO2 Emissions in Atmosphere Fraction of anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere Emissions 1 tCO2 400Kg stay Emissions 1 tCO2 1960 1970 1980 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 1990 2000 2006 450Kg stay Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction Ocean Fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink • Part of the decline is attributed to up to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years. Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5 • This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon. • The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica which enhances ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters. • The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the ozone hole. Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science Drought Effects on the Mid-Latitude Carbon Sinks A number of major droughts in mid-latitudes have contributed to the weakening of the growth rate of terrestrial carbon sinks in these regions. Summer 1982-1991 Summer 1994-2002/04 Angert et al. 2005, PNAS; Buermann et al. 2007, PNAS; Ciais et al. 2005, Science NDVI Anomaly 1982-2004 [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index] 4. Attribution of the recent acceleration of atmospheric CO2 Attribution of Recent Acceleration of Atmospheric CO2 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2000 - 2006: 1.9 ppm y-1 To: • Economic growth • Carbon intensity • Efficiency of natural sinks 65% - Increased activity of the global economy 17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy 18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 5. Conclusions and implications for climate change Conclusions (i) Since 2000: • The growth of carbon emissions from fossil fuels has tripled compared to the 1990s and is exceeding the predictions of the highest IPCC emission scenarios. • Atmospheric CO2 has grown at 1.9 ppm per year (compared to about 1.5 ppm during the previous 30 years) • The carbon intensity of the world’s economy has stopped decreasing (after 100 years of doing so). Conclusions (ii) • The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 10% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer we wait to reduce emissions, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2. • All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected. References • • • • • • • • • Angert A, Biraud S, Bonfils C, Henning CC, Buermann W, Pinzon J, Tucker CJ, Fung I (2005) PNAS 102:10823-10827. Breshears DD, Cobb NS, Richd PM, Price KP, Allen CD (2005) PNAS 42:15144-15148. Canadell JG, Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Christopher B. Field, Erik T. Buitehuis, Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, NP Gillett, RA Houghton, Gregg Marland (2007) PNAS. Canadell JG, Pataki D, Gifford R, Houghton RA, Lou Y, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W (2007) in Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, eds Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L (IGBP Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg), pp 59-78. Ciais P, Reichstein M, Viovy N, Granier A, Ogée, J, V. Allard V, Aubinet M, Buchmann N, Bernhofer Ch, Carrara A, et al. (2005) Nature 437:529-533. Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Canadell JG, Klepper G, Field CB, PNAS (2007) 104: 10288-10293. Global Forest Resource Assessment (2005) FAO Forestry Paper 147. Gruber N, Friedlingstein P, Field CB, Valentini R, Heimann M, Richey JF, Romero P, Schulze E-D, Chen A (2004) in Global Carbon Cycle, integrating human, climate, and the natural world, Field CB, Raupach M (eds). Island Press, Washington, DC., pp 45-76 Le Quéré C, Rödenbeck C, Buitenhuis ET, Thomas J, Conway TJ, Langenfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, et al. (2007) Science 316:1735-1738. Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2008) Forest management for climate change mitigation. Science 320, 1456-1457, doi: 10.1126/science.1155458. www.globalcarbonproject.org [email protected]