Download Climate Change and Public Health 101

Climate Change 101
Climate Change Training Module
Climate Change and Public
Health 101
MN Climate & Health Program
Minnesota Department of Health
Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit
October 2012
625 Robert Street North
PO Box 64975
St. Paul, MN 55164-0975
Notice
MDH developed this presentation based on
scientific research published in peer-reviewed
journals. References for information can be
found in the relevant slides and/or at the end
of the presentation.
2
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
3
Definitions
 Weather – conditions
of the atmosphere
over a short period of
time
 Climate – conditions
of the atmosphere
over long periods of
time (30- year
standard averaging
period)
4
Definitions
 Adaptation – efforts to
anticipate and prepare for
the effects of climate
change, and thereby to
reduce the associated
health burden
 Mitigation – efforts to
slow, stabilize, or reverse
climate change by
reducing greenhouse gas
emissions
5
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
6
Observed Climate Changes
There have been three recent significant
observed climate trends in Minnesota:
 The average temperature is increasing
 The average number of days with a
high dew point may be increasing
 The character of precipitation is
changing
7
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Minnesota Average Temperature
12 month period ending December
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
49
Temperature (°F)
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
Ending Year of Period
Annual Average Temperature
10-Year Running Average
8
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Significant observations in warming pattern:
 Winter temperatures have been rising about
twice as fast as annual average temperatures
 Minimum or ‘overnight low’ temperatures
have been rising faster than maximum or
‘daytime high’ temperatures
9
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Seasonal Temperature Trends (°F per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data
SPRING: + 1.6°
AUTUMN: + 0.5°
SUMMER: + 0.8°
WINTER: + 2.2°
10
Projected Summer Temperatures
Current average summer
temperature (°C)
Average summer
temperature change by
2069 (°C)
11
Dew Point Changes
 Dew point – a measure of
water vapor in the air
 A high dew point makes it
more difficult for sweat to
evaporate off the skin, which is
one of the main mechanisms
the body uses to cool itself
 The number of days with high
dew point temperatures (≥
70°F) may be increasing in
Minnesota
12
Dew Point Changes
13
Changes in Precipitation
Minnesota Total Annual Precipitation
12 month period ending in December
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
40
Precipitation (inches)
35
30
25
20
15
10
Ending Year of Period
Total Annual Precipitation
10-year Running Average
14
Changes in Precipitation
Precipitation in Minnesota is
changing:
 More localized, heavy
precipitations events
 Potential to cause both
increased flooding and
drought
15
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
16
Extreme Heat
Extreme Heat Events
An extreme heat event is characterized by
weather that is substantially hotter and/or
more humid for a particular location at a
particular time
17
Extreme Heat
Extreme heat events can cause:
 Heat tetany (hyperventilation)
 Heat rash
 Heat cramps
 Heat exhaustion
 Heat edema (swelling)
 Heat syncope (fainting)
 Heat stroke
 Death
18
Extreme Heat
Risk Factors









Lack of air conditioning in home
Low socioeconomic status
Living in urban areas
Living in topmost floor of a
dwelling
Living in nursing homes or being
bedridden
Living alone or a lack of social or
family ties
Prolonged sun exposure
Drinking alcohol
Exercising outside on warm days
19
Extreme Heat
Vulnerable Populations
 Everyone
 Elderly persons 65 years and
older
 Especially those who live
alone
 Children
 Persons with pre-existing
disease conditions
 Persons taking certain
medications
 Athletes
 Outdoor workers
 Homeless
20
Urban Heat Islands
• Higher temperatures in urban
areas relative to surrounding
suburban and rural areas can be
caused by:
• Reduced vegetation and green
space
• Heat-absorbing surfaces, such
as pavement
• Heat-reflecting surfaces,
including many building
materials
• Skyscrapers obstructing free
air flow
Images from the Metropolitan Design Center Image Bank.
Used with permission.
21
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
22
Air Pollutants and Allergens
Climate change may affect exposures to air
pollutants by:

Creating both more windiness and more air
stagnation events

Increasing temperatures which . . .

Image from the Metropolitan Design Center Image Bank.
Used with permission.

Increase pollution from fossil fuel
combustion to meet electricity demand
for increased air conditioner use

Increase production of natural sources
of air pollutant emissions

Increase formation of ozone
Lengthening the allergy season, creating
more potent allergens
23
Air Pollutants and Allergens
Ground-Level Ozone
Health Impacts
Populations at Risk
Effects of acute exposure:
• Acute exposure to elevated
ozone can lead to
hospitalization or death
Due to increased exposure:
• Healthy people, especially
athletes and outdoor workers
in landscape and construction
who may be exposed to higher
levels of ozone for longer
periods of time on high
pollution days
Effect of long-term exposure:
• Decreased lung function and
new-onset asthma
• Elevated ozone can exacerbate
other conditions, such as
asthma and allergies
Due to sensitivity:
• Persons with respiratory and
cardiovascular diseases
• Older adults and children
24
Air Pollutants and Allergens
Particulate Matter
Health Impacts
Populations at Risk
Effects of acute exposure:
• Short-term decrease in lung
function
• Exacerbation of respiratory
and cardiovascular diseases
• Hospitalization and death
Due to increased exposure:
• Persons living or working in
urban areas, especially near
high-traffic corridors and/or
stationary sources of PM (such
as factories or power plants)
Effect of long-term exposure:
• Respiratory and cardiovascular
diseases
• Cardiopulmonary and lung
cancer deaths
Due to sensitivity:
• Persons with respiratory and
cardiovascular diseases
• Elderly and children
• Persons with asthma and/or
allergies
25
Air Pollutants and Allergens
Climate change impact on
allergenic pollen:
• Increased pollen production
• Longer pollen season
• Increased potency of airborne
allergens
• Proliferation of weedy plant
species that are known
producers of allergenic pollen
• Introduction of new allergenproducing plant species
26
Air Pollutants and Allergens
Mold growth is encouraged by
moisture:
• Increased precipitation and flooding
• Increased humidity
• Increase in plant growth/plant
biomass decay (leaf litter)
• Improper installation or
management of air conditioning
systems can create conditions ripe
for mold
(Image Source: Terry Brennan, http://www.epa.gov/mold/moldcourse/imagegallery5.html)
27
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
28
Flooding
On average, the overall rainfall
in Minnesota is increasing.
In Minnesota, the frequency of
storms with 3 or more inches of
rainfall has increased 104% in
the last 50 years.
Examples of severe floods in
Minnesota’s history include:
• April 1997: Red River Valley
• August 2007: Southeast
Minnesota
• June 2012: Duluth
29
Flooding
Health Impacts
physical injuries
(including drowning)
allergies (mold)
food and water-borne
illnesses
food security
displacement
mental health issues
interruption of
emergency services
30
Drought
Changing natural and social factors play a role in how
drought affects society, economy, and environment.
Factors include:
• Timing of drought
• Temperature
• Population density and
growth
• Development and
implementation of water
supply technology
• Land use patterns
31
Drought
Health Impacts
• Reduced lake and wetland levels
and stream flows
• Potential concentration of
pollutants
• Decreased water supply for
drinking and agriculture
• Negative effects on soil moisture
and crop progress will impact
food security
• Increased risk of wildfires
32
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
33
Other Impacts of Public Health Concern
Vectorborne Diseases
Climate changes such as warmer temperatures, increased rainfall,
longer warm season and less severe winters can impact the range and
incidence of vectorborne disease. Risk is also impacted by land use,
population density, and human behavior.
Black-legged ticks (“deer ticks”), which carry Lyme disease, are most
active on warm, humid days. They are also most abundant in wooded or
brushy areas with abundant small animals and deer. If those areas are
one where many people live, work, or visit for recreation, the incidence
of tick-borne disease can be high.
For more information on climate and vectorborne disease, visit:
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/dtopics/vectorborne/climate.html
34
Other Impacts of Public Health Concern
Power Outages
• Demand for electricity increases in
warmer climates in order to air condition
homes and businesses.
• Increased temperatures may reduce the
efficiency of power production in facilities
that require water for cooling.
• Severe storms and flooding can interrupt
power service through damaged and
destroyed infrastructure
• Brownouts: intentionally reduced voltage
in a power supply system used for load
reduction in an emergency; may prevent
black outs but can have other impacts
35
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
36
The High Cost of Disasters
37
The High Cost of Disasters
2012 Duluth Flood: A 500 Year Storm Event
• Total rainfall in excess of 10 inches resulted
in severe flash flooding and river flooding
• $108 million in damage in infrastructure
alone
• damages to roads, bridges, water and
sewer systems, electric utilities, and
communications infrastructure
• Damage to 1,700 homes and 100 businesses
included structural damage, loss of utilities,
sewage back up, and the subsequent
sustained heat and humidity exacerbated
mold growth
• Estimated damages for these homes
and businesses exceed $12 million
Photo credits: Rachel Agurkis (top),
Derek Montgomery for MPR (bottom)
38
The High Cost of Disasters
Minnesota Severe Weather Damages from 2000 to 2011
Data from NOAA's National Weather Service: Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
2011
2010
2009
2008
Property Damage ($M)
2007
Crop Damage ($M)
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
39
The High Cost of Disasters
Deaths and Injuries Caused by Severe Weather in Minnesota
Data from NOAA's National Weather Service: Office of Climate, Water, and Weather
Services
70
60
50
40
30
Total deaths
Total injury
20
10
0
40
The High Cost of Disasters
• Recent case study analysis of 6 climate-related
disasters estimated the associated health care
costs:
• US Ozone Air Pollution, 2000-2002
• California Heat Wave, 2006
• Florida Hurricane Season, 2004
• Louisiana West Nile Virus Outbreak, 2002
• North Dakota Red River Flooding, 2009
• Southern California Wildfires, 2003
• The associated health care costs alone
topped $14 billion
• 1,689 premature deaths
• 8,992 hospitalizations
• 21,113 emergency visits
• 734,398 outpatient visits
41
Outline
• Climate Change in Minnesota
• Health Impacts of Climate
– Extreme Heat Events
– Air Quality: Pollutants and Allergens
– Flooding and Drought
– Other Impacts
• The High Cost of Disasters
• The Role of Public Health
42
Climate Change and Public Health
Extreme
Precipitation
Increased
Humidity
Increased
Temperature
Adaptation Measures
Events
Health Outcomes
Extreme Heat
Heat-related illness and
death
Air Pollutants &
Allergens
Cardiovascular disease,
stroke
Drought
Changes in
Environment &
Habitat
Severe Storms
& Flooding
Wildfire
(positive and negative)
Climate Changes
Public Health
Role
Risk Factors
Mitigation
Respiratory Illness
Injuries and Drowning
Vector-borne illness
Displacement
Waterborne and
foodborne illness
Stress, Mental Illness
43
Public Health Strategies
Mitigation
• Promote activities that reduce harmful
emissions
• Active communities that make
biking, walking, and/or public
transportation safe and convenient
• Telecommuting or other work
schedule alternatives that do not
require employees to drive daily
• Reduce the production of harmful air
pollutants by:
• Improving energy efficiency
• Reduce energy consumption
• Use alternatives to fossil fuels
• Reduce combustion of fossil fuels
Images from the Metropolitan Design Center Image Bank.
Used with permission.
44
Public Health Strategies
Adaptation
• Monitoring conditions and providing useful information to the public
• Extreme heat events
• Air Quality Index
• Disasters
• Community and infrastructure planning
• Retention ponds and wetlands increase water storage
• Pervious surfaces and rain gardens increase infiltration, reducing runoff
• Increasing capacity of stormwater systems
• Reduce the urban heat island effect by maintaining green space in
urban areas
• Emergency Preparedness
• Robust all-hazards plans that include annexes for severe storms,
extreme heat, power loss
• Identification and understanding of high-risk and vulnerable
populations
45
Communicating Climate Change
The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication identified six distinct
American audiences, each of which responds to the issue of climate change in
markedly different ways.
Alarmed
Concerned
Cautious
Disengaged
Doubtful
Dismissive
12%
27%
25%
10%
15%
10%
Highest belief in climate change
Most concerned
Most motivated
Lowest belief in climate change
Least concerned
Least motivated
46
Communicating Climate Change
Alarmed
Concerned
Cautious
Disengaged
Doubtful
Dismissive
12%
27%
25%
10%
15%
10%
• Completely convinced
that climate change is
real
• Believe that people are
already being harmed by
climate change
• Supportive of personal
and policy action
• Believe that climate
change is real
• Feel that dangerous
impacts of climate change
will be seen in 10 years
• Supportive of personal
and policy action
• Unsure whether climate
change is occurring
• Believe the impacts of
climate change will be
seen in 25 years
• Do not believe personal
actions or the actions of
a single nation will make
any difference
47
Communicating Climate Change
Alarmed
Concerned
Cautious
Disengaged
Doubtful
Dismissive
12%
27%
25%
10%
15%
10%
• Less convinced that
climate change is
happening
• Believe that impacts of
climate change will be felt
in 50 years
• Do not feel that
immediate action is
needed
• Unconcerned about
whether or not climate
change is occurring
• Believe the impacts of
climate change will be
felt in 100 years
• Do not feel that
immediate action is
needed
• The only segment that is
completely unconcerned
about climate change
because they do not
believe it is happening
48
Communicating Climate Change
• Most Americans think of
climate change in
geographically and
temporally distant terms
• Few Americans, without
prompting, report that
climate change has any
connection to human
health
49
Communicating Climate Change
Communications Strategies
• Frame climate change as a
human health issue
• Localize climate change
• Emphasize the health cobenefits associated with
climate change action
50
Summary
• Minnesota’s climate is changing:
– Increases in temperature
– Increases in high dew point temperatures
– Increases in extreme precipitations events
• Climate changes can lead to a variety of events
with serious health impacts
– Extreme Heat
– Air pollution and allergies
– Flooding and drought
• Public health awareness, education, and
mitigation and/or adaptation can reduce the
health impacts of climate change
51
Climate Change Training Modules
Other modules in this series include:
• Extreme Heat Events, Climate Change and Public
Health
• Air Quality, Climate Change and Public Health
• Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and
Public Health
These can all be found on the MN Climate and
Health Program’s website:
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/index.html
Upcoming topics include:
• Agriculture
• Mental Health
52
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by cooperative
agreement 5UE1EH000738 from the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention
53
Thank You
Questions?
Contact Minnesota Climate and Health Program:
651-201-4898
651-201-5759 TTY
[email protected]
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/index.html
October 23, 2012
54
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US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). 2008. A Review of the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Aeroallergens and Their Associated
Effects (Final Report). Available online: http://www.epa.gov/research/gems/scinews_aeroallergens.htm
US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). 2011. Agriculture and Food Supply. Available online:
http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/agriculture.html
US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). 2012. Energy Impacts and Adaptation. Available online: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impactsadaptation/energy.html
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References
US Forest Service Incident Information System. 2011. Pagami Creek Fire. Available online: http://www.inciweb.org/incident/2534/
US National Hazard Statistics. 2012. Accessed 7/30/2012. Available online: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml
Western Regional Climate Center. (WRCC) 2011a. Minnesota Temperature 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated
online
November 2011. Available online: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/divplot1map.html
Western Regional Climate Center. (WRCC) 2011b. Minnesota Precipitation 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated online
November 2011. Available online: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/divplot1map.html
World Health Organization (WHO). 2010. Climate change and health. Fact sheet N°266. Available online:
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Zandlo, Jim 2008. Observing the climate. Minnesota State Climatology Office. Available online:
http://climate.umn.edu/climateChange/climateChangeObservedNu.htm
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Image Credits
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Slide 4: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 5: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 7: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 9: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 10: Midwest Regional Climate Center
Slide 11: Galatowitsch et al., 2009
Slide 12: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 15: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 17: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 18: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 19: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 20: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 21: Images from Metropolitan Design Center Image Bank.
Slide 23: Images from Metropolitan Design Center Image Bank.
Slide 26: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 27: Terry Brennan, http://www.epa.gov/mold/moldcourse/imagegallery5.html
Slide 29: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 30: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 31: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 32: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 35: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 37: NOAA National Climactic Data Center, 2012
Slide 38: Top image from Rachel Agurkis, Bottom image from Derek Montgomery for MPR
Slide 41: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 44: Images from Metropolitan Design Center Image Bank.
Slide 49: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
Slide 50: Images from Microsoft Clip Art
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