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Global Warming
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Iowa Soil and Water Conservation Society, 22 September 2006
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2006
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2040
2006
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
3.5
Concentration (parts per million)
375
3
370
2.5
365
360
2
355
1.5
350
345
1
340
0.5
335
330
1975
0
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
Annual Increase (parts per million)
380
CO2 Conc
Ann Increase
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“Nobody believes that the US
economy can still be petroleum
based in 2050, yet there is no
national plan”
Mark Kushner, Dean
Iowa State University College of Engineering
President’s Council Meeting
13 January 2006
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Contributions to “global dimming”
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Associated Climate Changes
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Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
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V
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
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Tropical Weather
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Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed to
a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland
Discharge from major
Greenland ice streams
is accelerating markedly.
Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen,
Univ. of Colorado
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Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
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140-page synthesis report released in
November 2004.
Main science report imminent (chapters
available electronically at www.acia.uaf.edu).
Concerns over wide-ranging changes in the
Arctic.
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Rising temperatures
Rising river flows
Declining snow cover
Increasing precipitation
Thawing permafrost
Diminishing late and river ice
Melting glaciers
Melting Greenland Ice Sheet
Retreating summer sea ice
Rising sea level
Ocean salinity changes
Species at risk include polar bears, seals, walruses,
Arctic fox, snowy owl, and many species of
mosses and lichens
Sources: Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor
Increasing Melt Area on Greenland
• 2002
all-time record melt area
• Melting up to elevation of 2000 m
• 16% increase from 1979 to 2002
70 meters thinning in 5 years
Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005.
Source: Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center
Scientific Consensus of Five Years
Ago Likely Underestimated Rate of
Climate Change*
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Global dimming has decreased
Permafrost melting is widespread
Biomass feedbacks are kicking in
Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly
Poleward movement of mid-latitude westerlies;
strengthening of ocean gyres
Rapid Greenland and Antarctic ice-shelf
disintegration
Increased intensity of tropical cyclones
Accelerated changes in North Atlantic ocean
thermohaline circulation
REGIONAL climate
CLIMATE
SIMULATIONS
* Pittock, A. PROJECT
B., 2006: TO
AreINTERCOMPARE
scientist underestimating
change?
EOS, 87, 340.
For the Midwest
Warming will be greater for winter than summer
 Warming will be greater at night than during the
day
 A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave
 Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950)
 More precipitation
 Likely more soil moisture in summer
 More rain will come in intense rainfall events
 Higher stream flow, more flooding
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Climate Surprises
 Breakdown
of the ocean thermohaline
circulation (Greenland melt water)
 Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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Kennedy Space
Center
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
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What Constitutes “Dangerous
Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean
temperature
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Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
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SIMULATIONS
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Projected sea-level rise
In 21st century:
0.5 to 1.0 m
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
“Another ice age cannot occur unless
humans become extinct. Even then, it
would require thousands of years.
Humans now control global climate, for
better or for worse.”
James E. Hansen, Director
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
New York City
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Climate Model Resolution
global
regional (land)
regional (water)
Only every second
RCM grid point is
shown in each
direction
Summary
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Climate change is real and we need to be doing
something about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”
Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to
develop adaptation strategies for the short term
The longer we wait, the fewer our options
Regional patterns of warming will be complicated
Climate surprises can’t be discounted
We need dialog between scientists
and the private sector to develop both
adaptation and mitigation strategies
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For More Information
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For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have
seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
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Contact me directly:
[email protected]
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