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A) CO2 and GHG’s are vital to prevent global cooling and the Ice Age.
Lacis et al., 10 (Andrew A., PhD in Physics from the University of Iowa and NASA scientist, with Gavin
A. Schmidt, NASA scientist @ Goddard Space Flight Center, Sciences and Exploration Directorate, Earth
Sciences Division, David Lind, NASA scientist and PhD, and Reto A. Ruedy, NASA scientist and PhD,
"Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth's Temperature", Science Magazine, October
15, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356.full.pdf)
If the global atmospheric temperatures were to fall to as low as TS = TE, the Clausius-Clapeyron relation
would imply that the sustainable amount of atmospheric water vapor would become less than 10% of
the current atmospheric value. This would result in (radiative) forcing reduced by ~30 W/m2, causing
much of the remaining water vapor to precipitate, thus enhancing the snow/ice albedo to further
diminish the absorbed solar radiation. Such a condition would inevitably lead to runaway glaciation,
producing an ice ball Earth. Claims that removing all CO2 from the atmosphere “would lead to a 1°C
decrease in global warming” (7), or “by 3.53°C when 40% cloud cover is assumed” (8) are still being
heard. A clear demonstration is needed to show that water vapor and clouds do indeed behave as fast
feedback processes and that their atmospheric distributions are regulated by the sustained radiative
forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. To this end, we performed a simple climate experiment with
the GISS 2° × 2.5° AR5 version of ModelE, using the Q-flux ocean with a mixed-layer depth of 250 m,
zeroing out all the noncondensing GHGs and aerosols. The results, summarized in Fig. 2, show
unequivocally that the radiative forcing by noncondensing GHGs is essential to sustain the
atmospheric temperatures that are needed for significant levels of water vapor and cloud feedback.
Without this noncondensable GHG forcing, the physics of this model send the climate of Earth
plunging rapidly and irrevocably to an icebound state, though perhaps not to total ocean freezeover.
Time evolution of global surface temperature, TOA net flux, column water vapor, planetary albedo, sea
ice cover, and cloud cover, after the zeroing out of the noncondensing GHGs. The model used in the
experiment is the GISS 2°× 2.5° AR5 version of ModelE, with the Q-flux ocean and a mixed-layer depth of
250 m. Model initial conditions are for a preindustrial atmosphere. Surface temperature and TOA net
flux use the lefthand scale. The scope of the climate impact becomes apparent in just 10 years. During
the first year alone, global mean surface temperature falls by 4.6°C. After 50 years, the global
temperature stands at –21°C, a decrease of 34.8°C. Atmospheric water vapor is at ~10% of the control
climate value (22.6 to 2.2 mm). Global cloud cover increases from its 58% control value to more than
75%, and the global sea ice fraction goes from 4.6% to 46.7%, causing the planetary albedo of Earth to
also increase from ~29% to 41.8%. This has the effect of reducing the absorbed solar energy to further
exacerbate the global cooling. After 50 years, a third of the ocean surface still remains ice-free, even
though the global surface temperature is colder than –21°C. At tropical latitudes, incident solar radiation
is sufficient to keep the ocean from freezing. Although this thermal oasis within an otherwise icebound
Earth appears to be stable, further calculations with an interactive ocean would be needed to verify the
potential for long-term stability. The surface temperatures in Fig. 3 are only marginally warmer than 1°C
within the remaining low-latitude heat island. From the foregoing, it is clear that CO2 is the key
atmospheric gas that exerts principal control over the strength of the terrestrial greenhouse effect.
Water vapor and clouds are fast-acting feedback effects, and as such are controlled by the radiative
forcings supplied by the noncondensing GHGs. There is telling evidence that atmospheric CO2 also
governs the temperature of Earth on geological time scales, suggesting the related question of what
the geological processes that control atmospheric CO2 are. The geological evidence of glaciation at
tropical latitudes from 650 to 750 million years ago supports the snowball Earth hypothesis (9), and by
inference, that escape from the snowball Earth condition is also achievable.
B) The Ice Age is coming and will collapse civilization – reducing CO2 hastens
extinction.
Deming, 9 (David, geophysicist and associate professor of Arts and Sciences @ the University of
Oklahoma, “The Coming Ice Age,” May 13,
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/the_coming_ice_age.html)
The Great Famine was followed by the Black Death, the greatest disaster ever to hit the human race.
One-third of the human race died; terror and anarchy prevailed. Human civilization as we know it is
only possible in a warm interglacial climate. Short of a catastrophic asteroid impact, the greatest threat
to the human race is the onset of another ice age.¶ The oscillation between ice ages and interglacial
periods is the dominant feature of Earth's climate for the last million years. But the computer models
that predict significant global warming from carbon dioxide cannot reproduce these temperature
changes. This failure to reproduce the most significant aspect of terrestrial climate reveals an
incomplete understanding of the climate system, if not a nearly complete ignorance.¶ Global warming
predictions by meteorologists are based on speculative, untested, and poorly constrained computer
models. But our knowledge of ice ages is based on a wide variety of reliable data, including cores from
the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this case, it would be perspicacious to listen to the
geologists, not the meteorologists. By reducing our production of carbon dioxide, we risk hastening
the advent of the next ice age . Even more foolhardy and dangerous is the Obama administration's
announcement that they may try to cool the planet through geoengineering. Such a move in the middle
of a cooling trend could provoke the irreversible onset of an ice age. It is not hyperbole to state that
such a climatic change would mean the end of human civilization as we know it.¶ Earth's climate is
controlled by the Sun. In comparison, every other factor is trivial. The coldest part of the Little Ice Age
during the latter half of the seventeenth century was marked by the nearly complete absence of
sunspots. And the Sun now appears to be entering a new period of quiescence. August of 2008 was
the first month since the year 1913 that no sunspots were observed. As I write, the sun remains quiet.
We are in a cooling trend. The areal extent of global sea ice is above the twenty-year mean.¶ We have
heard much of the dangers of global warming due to carbon dioxide. But the potential danger of any
potential anthropogenic warming is trivial compared to the risk of entering a new ice age. Public policy
decisions should be based on a realistic appraisal that takes both climate scenarios into consideration.
Unique Links - Ice Age Coming Now – Need CO2
Ice Age is just around the corner – it would wipe us off the map and is comparatively
worse that warming, which would prevent it.
Carlin, 11 (Alan, PhD in economics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, former researcher on
economics and scientific public policy issues from 1971 to 2009, at the EPA, “A Multidisciplinary,
Science-based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change,” International Journal of Environmental
Research and Public Health, April, Vol. 8)
On the contrary, the evidence is that during interglacial periods over the last 3 million years the risks
are on the temperature downside, not the upside. As we approach the point where the Holocene has
reached the historical age when a new ice age has repeatedly started in past glacial cycles, this appears
likely to be the only CAGW effect that mankind should currently reasonably be concerned about.¶
Earth is currently in an interglacial period quite similar to others before and after each of the glacial
periods that Earth has experienced over the last 3 million years. During these interglacial periods there
is currently no known case where global temperatures suddenly and dramatically warmed above
interglacial temperatures, such as we are now experiencing, to very much warmer temperatures.
There have, of course, been interglacial periods that have experienced slightly higher temperatures, but
none that we know of that after 10,000 years experienced a sudden catastrophic further increase in
global temperatures. The point here is that there does not appear to be instability towards much
warmer temperatures during interglacial periods. There is rather instability towards much colder
temperatures, particularly during the later stages of interglacial periods. In fact, Earth has repeatedly
entered new ice ages about every 100,000 years during recent cycles, and interglacial periods have
lasted about 10,000 years. We are currently very close to the 10,000 year mark for the current
interglacial period. So if history is any guide, the main worry should be that of entering a new ice age,
with its growing ice sheets, that would probably wipe out civilization in the temperate regions of the
Northern Hemisphere—not global warming. The economic damages from a new ice age would indeed
be large, and almost certainly catastrophic. Unfortunately, it is very likely to occur sooner or later.¶
There is no real evidence that this three million year old periodicity in global temperatures has or will
change any time soon. And if it did, it would be good rather than bad for humans in that it would mean
that there would be less of a threat of a new ice age, which would surely be worse for human
economic activity than further minor warming.
The next ice age is coming – we can adapt to higher temperatures, but reducing CO2
will forever collapse global society.
Marsh, 8 (Gerald, retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and former advisor to the
Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology and policy, “The Coming of a New Ice Age,”
February 24,
http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm/)
Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global
warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age. ¶ What we live in now is known as an
interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial
periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age
ended. ¶ How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth’s surface? Less
than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don’t know.¶ Even if all the temperature increase
over the last century is attributable to human activities, the rise has been relatively modest one of a
little over one degree Fahrenheit — an increase well within natural variations over the last few thousand
years. ¶ While an enduring temperature rise of the same size over the next century would cause
humanity to make some changes, it would undoubtedly be within our ability to adapt. ¶ Entering a
new ice age, however, would be catastrophic for the continuation of modern civilization. ¶ One has
only to look at maps showing the extent of the great ice sheets during the last Ice Age to understand
what a return to ice age conditions would mean. Much of Europe and North-America were covered by
thick ice, thousands of feet thick in many areas and the world as a whole was much colder. ¶ The last
“little” Ice Age started as early as the 14th century when the Baltic Sea froze over followed by
unseasonable cold, storms, and a rise in the level of the Caspian Sea. That was followed by the
extinction of the Norse settlements in Greenland and the loss of grain cultivation in Iceland. Harvests
were even severely reduced in Scandinavia And this was a mere foreshadowing of the miseries to
come.¶ By the mid-17th century, glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, wiping out farms and entire
villages. In England, the River Thames froze during the winter, and in 1780, New York Harbor froze. Had
this continued, history would have been very different. Luckily, the decrease in solar activity that caused
the Little Ice Age ended and the result was the continued flowering of modern civilization.¶ There were
very few Ice Ages until about 2.75 million years ago when Earth’s climate entered an unusual period of
instability. Starting about a million years ago cycles of ice ages lasting about 100,000 years, separated
by relatively short interglacial perioods, like the one we are now living in became the rule. Before the
onset of the Ice Ages, and for most of the Earth’s history, it was far warmer than it is today. ¶ Indeed, the
Sun has been getting brighter over the whole history of the Earth and large land plants have flourished.
Both of these had the effect of dropping carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to the lowest
level in Earth’s long history. ¶ Five hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over
13 times current levels; and not until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels dropped to a
little less than twice what they are today. ¶ It is possible that moderately increased carbon dioxide
concentrations could extend the current interglacial period. But we have not reached the level
required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach. ¶ So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on
carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
and the climatology community in general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal
range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely. ¶ NASA has
predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should
cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice
Age?¶ We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by
spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be
only a will-o-the-wisp.
An ice age is coming and CO2 is crucial to prevent it – warming advocates ignore
evidence and have vested economic interests.
Goessling, 11 (Shannon, executive director and chief legal counsel for the Southeastern Legal
Foundation, “Ice age threat should freeze EPA global warming regs,” Examiner, 7/26,
http://freedomguide.blogspot.com/2011/10/new-ice-age-coming.html)
Rather than spiraling into a global warming meltdown, we may be heading into the next ice age. The
U.S. National Solar Observatory, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory and astrophysicists across the
planet report that the nearly all-time low sunspot activity may result in a sustained cooling period on
Earth.¶ The news has sent global warming theory advocates scrambling to discount and explain away the
impact on global temperatures. However, the "news" is not really that new.¶ Many reputable scientists
have been warning for decades that we are nearing the end of the 11,500-year average period
between ice ages. And the last similar crash in sunspot activity coincided with the so-called "Little Ice
Age" in the 1600s that lasted nearly a century.¶ Despite increasing evidence that "global warming"
climate change is not the unified scientific theory it has been promoted to be, vested interests
continue to push for stringent limits on carbon dioxide emissions.¶ Certain investment banks and
trading houses that stand to make billions on so-called "carbon credits," and the environmental
sociologists who have as a stated purpose to change our way of life, are a powerful bloc.¶ In the Obama
administration, this cabal has a willing "big stick" in the form the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
which has enacted draconian measures that will, by President Obama's admission, make energy costs
"skyrocket."¶ The subject of intense litigation, the EPA regulations were enacted this year without
congressional approval as required by the Clean Air Act and other laws. Estimates put the economic
damage of these regulations at $1 trillion over the next 20 years, with a loss of between four and 10
million jobs.¶ Ironically, the current rush by global warming advocates to uncouple mounting evidence
of global cooling from the global warming regime is not the first time they've backpedaled.¶ As
referenced in ongoing litigation, the EPA admitted that generally applicable regulations would lead to
"absurd" results, leading the agency to create a so-called "Tailoring Rule."¶ For example, global warming
alarmists admit by their own calculations that reducing carbon emissions among a sample of large U.S.
"emitters" to EPA-required levels might reduce the surface temperature by .00071 degree Celsius -- or
70 times lower than what is detectable.¶ Annual emission reductions sought would be replaced in 13
days by industrial growth in China. "Absurd" is understatement. So how do we handle "global
cooling?"¶ In the 1970s and '80s, climatologists and astrophysicists were setting off alarms about
pending global cooling and "the new ice age." Headlines in major weekly news magazines warned of a
cooling catastrophe, with experts like famed astronomer Carl Sagan calling on industrialized countries
to produce more carbon dioxide to offset the pending disaster.¶ High-level scientific proposals were
advanced to redirect Arctic rivers, clear out swaths of high-density forests to release carbon dioxide, and
even salt the Greenland ice caps with black carbon to attract sun melting in a global effort to stave off
the impending ice age.¶ What happens during a "Little Ice Age?" Food-producing land becomes scarcer,
food-growing seasons become shorter, and the world becomes a much more arid and less hospitable
place. Think food shortages and the social unrest that follows.¶ The forces at work behind the global
warming regulatory regime have, at worst, covered up, ignored and manipulated climate evidence to
make the case that humans cause global warming and therefore humans should be punished.¶ At best,
the mainstream scientific community is continuing to weigh the climate data as it becomes available.
Caught in the flux are millions of Americans suffering under an economic tsunami that is anything but a
theory.¶ The textbook definition of moving forward with global warming regulations is truly "absurd."
Link: CO2
CO2 is vital to warming that historically ends ice ages.
Shakun et al., 12 (Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark , Feng He, Shaun A. Marcott, Alan C. Mix, Zhengyu
Liu , Bette Otto-Bliesner, Andreas Schmittner & Edouard Bard, Department of Earth and Planetary
Sciences, Harvard University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, College of Earth,
Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Center for Climatic Research, University of
Wisconsin, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison,
Laboratory for Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Peking University, Climate and Global Dynamics Division,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, CEREGE, Colle`ge de France, CNRS-Universite´ Aix-Marseille,
Europole de l’Arbois, “Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the
last deglaciation,” Nature, Volume 484, April 5,
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/pdf/nature10915.pdf)
We calculate the area-weighted mean of 80 globally distributed, highresolution proxy temperature
records to reconstruct global surface¶ temperature during the last deglaciation (Methods and Fig. 1).
The¶ global temperature stack shows a two-step rise, with most warming¶ occurring during and right
after the Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas¶ intervals and relatively little temperature change during the
Last¶ Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Bølling–Allerød interval and the early¶ Holocene epoch (Fig. 2a). The
atmospheric CO2 record from the¶ EPICA Dome C ice core¶ 12¶ , which has recently been placed on a
more¶ accurate timescale¶ 13¶ , has a similar two-step structure and is strongly correlated with the
temperature stack (r¶ 2¶ 5 0.94 (coefficient of determination), P 50.03; Fig. 2a).¶ Lag correlations quantify
the timing of change in the temperature¶ stack relative to CO2¶ from 20–10 kyr ago, an interval that
spans the¶ period during which low LGM CO2¶ concentrations increased to¶ almost pre-industrial values.
Our results indicate that CO2 probably leads global warming over the course of the deglaciation (Fig.
2b). A comparison of the global temperature stack with Antarctic temperature provides further support
for this relative timing, in showing that although the structure of the global stack is similar to the pattern
of¶ Antarctic temperature change, it lags Antarctica by several centuries¶ to a millennium throughout
most of the deglaciation (Fig. 2a). Thus, the small apparent lead of Antarctic temperature over CO2 in
the icecore records¶ 12,14¶ does not apply to global temperature. An additional¶ evaluation of this
result comes from an objective identification of¶ inflection points in the CO2¶ and global temperature
records, which¶ suggests that changes in CO2¶ concentration were either synchronous¶ with or led
global warming during the various steps of the deglaciation¶ (Supplementary Table 2). An important
exception is the onset of¶ deglaciation, which features about 0.3 uC of global warming before¶ the initial
increase in CO2 ,17.5 kyr ago. This finding suggests that¶ CO2 was not the cause of initial warming. We
return to this point below. Nevertheless, the overall correlation and phasing of global temperature and
CO2 are consistent with CO2 being an important¶ driver of global warming during the deglaciation,
with the centennial scale lag of temperature behind CO2 being consistent with the thermal inertia of
the climate system owing to ocean heat uptake and ice¶ melting¶ 15¶ .¶ Although other mechanisms
contributed to climate change during¶ the ice ages, climate models suggest that their impacts were
regional¶ and thus cannot explain the global extent of temperature changes¶ documented by our
stacked record alone¶ 9,16,17¶ . This conclusion is supported by the distinct differences, relative to the
temperature stack, in¶ the temporal variabilities of other likely climate change agents (Fig. 3).¶ For
example, insolation is a smoothly varying sinusoid that is in¶ antiphase between the hemispheres and
sums to near zero globally at¶ the top of the atmosphere (Fig. 3f). Although spatial and temporal¶
asymmetries in albedo could convert insolation to a non-zero forcing¶ at Earth’s surface, it is unlikely to
account for much of the step-like¶ structure and global nature of the temperature stack.
CO2 drives temperatures that can end the ice age.
Amos, 12 (Jonathan, science correspondent for the BBC, “CO2 ‘drove end to last ice age,” April 4,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17611404)
A new, detailed record of past climate change provides compelling evidence that the last ice age was
ended by a rise in temperature driven by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.¶ The finding is
based on a very broad range of data, including even the shells of ancient tiny ocean animals.¶ A paper
describing the research appears in this week's edition of Nature.¶ The team behind the study says its
work further strengthens ideas about global warming.¶ "At the end of the last ice age, CO2 rose from
about 180 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere to about 260; and today we're at 392," explained
lead author Dr Jeremy Shakun.¶ "So, in the last 100 years we've gone up about 100 ppm - about the
same as at the end of the last ice age, which I think puts it into perspective because it's not a small
amount. Rising CO2 at the end of the ice age had a huge effect on global climate."¶ The study covers the
period in Earth history from roughly 20,000 to 10,000 years ago.¶ This was the time when the planet was
emerging from its last deep chill, when the great ice sheets known to cover parts of the Northern
Hemisphere were in retreat.¶ The key result from the new study is that it shows the carbon dioxide rise
during this major transition ran slightly ahead of increases in global temperature.¶ This runs contrary
to the record obtained solely from the analysis of Antarctic ice cores which had indicated the opposite
- that temperature elevation in the southern polar region actually preceded (or at least ran concurrent
to) the climb in CO2.¶ This observation has frequently been used by some people who are sceptical of
global warming to challenge its scientific underpinnings; to claim that the warming link between the
atmospheric gas and global temperature is grossly overstated.¶ But Dr Shakun and colleagues argue that
the Antarctic temperature record is just that - a record of what was happening only on the White
Continent.¶ By contrast, their new climate history encompasses data from all around the world to
provide a much fuller picture of what was happening on a global scale.¶ This data incorporates
additional information contained in ices drilled from Greenland, and in sediments drilled from the ocean
floor and from continental lakes.¶ These provide a range of indicators. Air bubbles trapped in ice, for
example, will record the past CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Past temperatures can also be
inferred from ancient planktonic marine organisms buried in the sediments. That is because the amount
of magnesium they would include in their calcite skeletons and shells was dependent on the warmth of
the water in which they swam.¶ "Our global temperature looks a lot like the pattern of rising CO2 at the
end of the ice age, but the interesting part in particular is that unlike with these Antarctic ice core
records, the temperature lags a bit behind the CO2," said Dr Shakun, who conducted much of the
research at Oregon State University but who is now affiliated to Harvard and Columbia universities.¶
"You put these two points together - the correlation of global temperature and CO2, and the fact that
temperature lags behind the CO2 - and it really leaves you thinking that CO2 was the big driver of
global warming at the end of the ice age," he told BBC News.
Link: Anthropogenic Emissions
Anthropogenic GHG emissions key to prevent an ice age.
Tzedakis et al., 12 (Chronis, Professor of Physical Geography at University College London, James
Channell, Professor in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Florida, David Hodell
Professor at the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Cambridge, Luke Skinner, Department
of Earth Science and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, H.F. KLeiven, UNI Research,
“Determining the natural length of the current interglacial,” January 9, Nature Geoscience,
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo1358.pdf )
No glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv
(ref. 1). Indeed, model experiments suggest that in the current orbital configuration—which is
characterized by a weak minimum in summer insolation—glacial inception would require CO2
concentrations below preindustrial levels of 280 ppmv (refs 2–4). However, the precise CO2 threshold
4–6 as well as the timing of the hypothetical next glaciation 7 remain unclear. Past interglacials can be
used to draw analogies with the present, provided their duration is known. Here we propose that the
minimum age of a glacial inception is constrained by the onset of bipolar-seesaw climate variability,
which requires ice-sheets large enough to produce iceberg discharges that disrupt the ocean circulation.
We identify the bipolar seesaw in ice-core and North Atlantic marine records by the appearance of a
distinct phasing of interhemispheric climate and hydrographic changes and ice-rafted debris. The glacial
inception during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 19c, a close analogue for the present interglacial, occurred
near the summer insolation minimum, suggesting that the interglacial was not prolonged by subdued
radiative forcing 7 . Assuming that ice growth mainly responds to insolation and CO2 forcing, this
analogy suggests that the end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if
atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240 5 ppmv. radi The notion that the Holocene (or
Marine Isotope Stage 1, MIS1), already 11.6 thousand years (kyr) old, may be drawing to a close has
been based on the observation that the duration of recent interglacials was approximately half a
precession cycle (11 kyr; ref. 8). However, uncertainty over an imminent hypothetical glaciation arises
from the current subdued amplitude of insolation variations as a result of low orbital eccentricity (Fig.
1). It has thus been proposed that at times of weak eccentricityprecession forcing, obliquity is the
dominant astronomical parameter driving ice-volume changes, leading to extended interglacial duration
of approximately half an obliquity cycle (21 kyr; ref. 9). In this view, the next glacial inception would
occur near the obliquity minimum 10 kyr from now 7 . Climate modelling studies show that a reduction
in boreal summer insolation is the primary trigger for glacial inception, with CO2 playing a secondary
role 3,5 . Lowering CO2 shifts the inception threshold to higher insolation values 1 , but modelling
experiments indicate that preindustrial concentrations of 280 ppmv would not be sufficiently low to
lead to new ice growth given the subdued insolation minimum24 . However, the extent to which
preindustrial CO2 levels were `natural' has been challenged 10,11 by the suggestion that
anthropogenic interference since the mid Holocene led to increased greenhouse gas (GHG)
concentrations, which countered the natural cooling trend and prevented a glacial inception. The
overdue glaciation hypothesis has been tested by climate simulations using lower preindustrial GHG
concentrations, with contrasting results, ranging from no ice growth 5 to a linear increase in ice volume
4 to large increases in perennial ice cover 6 .
AT: Positive Feedback Loops
No positive feedback loops – warming models actively gloss over the data.
Lindzen, 9 (Richard S., Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “The
Climate Science Isn’t Settled,” November 30, WSJ,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html)
The notion that the earth's climate is dominated by positive feedbacks is intuitively implausible , and
the history of the earth's climate offers some guidance on this matter. About 2.5 billion years ago, the
sun was 20%-30% less bright than now (compare this with the 2% perturbation that a doubling of CO2
would produce), and yet the evidence is that the oceans were unfrozen at the time, and that
temperatures might not have been very different from today's. Carl Sagan in the 1970s referred to this
as the "Early Faint Sun Paradox."¶ For more than 30 years there have been attempts to resolve the
paradox with greenhouse gases. Some have suggested CO2—but the amount needed was thousands
of times greater than present levels and incompatible with geological evidence. Methane also proved
unlikely. It turns out that increased thin cirrus cloud coverage in the tropics readily resolves the
paradox—but only if the clouds constitute a negative feedback. In present terms this means that they
would diminish rather than enhance the impact of CO2.¶ There are quite a few papers in the literature
that also point to the absence of positive feedbacks. The implied low sensitivity is entirely compatible
with the small warming that has been observed. So how do models with high sensitivity manage to
simulate the currently small response to a forcing that is almost as large as a doubling of CO2? Jeff Kiehl
notes in a 2007 article from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the models use another
quantity that the IPCC lists as poorly known (namely aerosols) to arbitrarily cancel as much
greenhouse warming as needed to match the data, with each model choosing a different degree of
cancellation according to the sensitivity of that model.
Most up to date cloud data proves negative feedback loops.
Davies and Molloy, 12 (Roger and Matthew, Department of Physics @ the University of Auckland,
New Zealand, “Global cloud height fluctuations measured by MISR on Terra from 2000-2010,”
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, L03701,
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1203/2011GL050506/2011GL050506.pdf)
[12] MISR has been generating a new climate data record¶ of globally distributed effective cloud
heights, H, as a function of time since the start of consistent data collection in¶ March 2000. H is
obtained from stereo retrievals based on¶ shortwave reflectivity patterns. The main limitations of the¶
technique are: a sampling time at only 10:30 am local time;¶ the omission of thin clouds (cirrus with
optical depth less¶ than ≈0.3); and the omission of very homogeneous cloud¶ (some anvil cirrus). The
main advantages are: the retrieval of¶ H that is independent of atmospheric temperature profile;¶
consistent measurement from year to year at the same local¶ time with no concerns about calibration
drift; and the abundance of data at high spatial resolution yielding a very low¶ sampling error. Because H
is due to the topmost non-thin¶ cloud, changes in effective cloud height (due to changes in¶ the
probability of occurrence of cloud as a function of altitude) over time directly affect the emission to
space of¶ longwave radiation, independent of changes in atmospheric¶ temperature. This climate
data record can be used in several¶ ways, notably establishing correlations with changes in other¶ local
variables to examine potential feedback mechanisms,¶ and monitoring the long-term record for hints of
secular¶ trends that act to amplify or dampen the effects of rising surface temperatures.¶ [13] When H′
is expressed as deseasonalized 10-day¶ (Figure 1) or monthly (Figure 5) departures from the 10-year¶
mean, the time series shows departures that exceed the¶ expected sampling uncertainty of the global
average. The¶ main ‘event’ of the decade was a maximum anomaly of¶ 80 m that began in late 2007,
coincident with a moderately¶ strong La Niña. H′ also shows (Figure 3) distinct regional¶ patterns of
correlation with coincident anomalies in surface¶ pressure and surface temperature, and especially with
the¶ Southern Oscillation Index. The correlations with SOI are¶ of particular interest, showing distinct
regional patterns of¶ coherent correlation over large areas. The strongest correlations are centered on
two regions: positive correlations at¶ 0°N, 120°E (Indonesia); and negative correlations at 0°N,¶ 180°E
(Central Pacific). The relationship between SOI¶ and effective height for the Indonesian and Central
Pacific¶ regions is consistently strong when plotted using a 12-month¶ running mean (Figure 4).¶ [14] The
coherent nature of these correlations suggests that¶ the measurement technique is yielding a record
that should¶ prove interesting to other researchers. Because these correlation patterns are large-scale,
they should be a useful diagnostic test for a well-constructed dynamic climate model that can relate
changes in dynamic circulation to changes in the presence and altitude of clouds. [15] Finally, we note
that the climate data record of H¶ anomalies may ultimately indicate a measure of long-term cloud
feedback that may be quite separate from the correlations discussed above. Ten years is unfortunately
too short¶ a span for any definitive conclusion, as the linear trend in¶ global cloud height of 44
22 m over the last decade is¶ partly influenced by the La Niña event,
and may prove¶ ephemeral. The difference between the first and last year¶ of the decade, not directly
affected by the La Niña event, is¶ 31
11 m. If sustained, such a decrease
would indicate a significant measure of negative cloud feedback to global warming, as lower cloud
heights reduce the effective altitude of emission of radiation to space with a corresponding cooling
effect on equilibrium surface temperature. Given the¶ precision of the MISR measurements, we look
forward to the¶ extension of this climate data record with great interest.
AT: Climate Occurrences Prove Warming
Their warrants are a bait and switch – environmental changes are based on a
confluence of factors.
Lindzen, 9 (Richard S., Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “The
Climate Science Isn’t Settled,” November 30, WSJ,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html)
What does all this have to do with climate catastrophe? The answer brings us to a scandal that is, in my
opinion, considerably greater than that implied in the hacked emails from the Climate Research Unit
(though perhaps not as bad as their destruction of raw data): namely the suggestion that the very
existence of warming or of the greenhouse effect is tantamount to catastrophe. This is the grossest of
"bait and switch" scams. It is only such a scam that lends importance to the machinations in the emails
designed to nudge temperatures a few tenths of a degree.¶ The notion that complex climate
"catastrophes" are simply a matter of the response of a single number, GATA, to a single forcing, CO2 (or
solar forcing for that matter), represents a gigantic step backward in the science of climate. Many
disasters associated with warming are simply normal occurrences whose existence is falsely claimed
to be evidence of warming. And all these examples involve phenomena that are dependent on the
confluence of many factors.¶ Our perceptions of nature are similarly dragged back centuries so that
the normal occasional occurrences of open water in summer over the North Pole, droughts, floods,
hurricanes, sea-level variations, etc. are all taken as omens, portending doom due to our sinful ways
(as epitomized by our carbon footprint). All of these phenomena depend on the confluence of multiple
factors as well.
Ice Age Outweighs – Can Adapt to Warming
Ice Age outweighs – photosynthesis can survive warming but not the Ice Age.
Walker, 2 (Bill, Research Associate at the Shay-Wright lab at UT Southwestern Medical Center, "The
Case Against Human Extinction", The Laissez-Fair Electronic Times, August 5,
http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/human_extinction.htm)
The new human powers also defended Earth against the Cold Death that killed Mars. In the time of the
dinosaurs, perhaps the peak of biodiversity and ecological exuberance, there was a lot of carbon. The
atmosphere was around 1% carbon dioxide. But as the radioactive energy that powers volcanoes runs
down, carbon keeps getting trapped in dead organisms and covered by sediments, leaving the
biosphere. During the last Ice Age the CO2 level fell below .02%. This is a serious problem for an
ecosystem based on photosynthetic plants. Someone (perhaps his third grade teacher) should have
told Al Gore; when the CO2 concentration is too low everything photosynthetic dies. In the 1800s,
CO2 levels were measured at .028%. Human use of fossil fuels has raised that to .037%; still far below
optimum for plant growth, but better. The slight increase in greenhouse effect also gives the Earth a
little more protection against ending up like Mars, with our CO2 lying frozen on the ground. (It is,
however, a VERY slight increase in greenhouse effect. Most of Earth's greenhouse effect comes from
atmospheric water.) The dinosaur eras were 10 degrees warmer than today, and the ecosystem liked
that just fine. It's been less than 15,000 years since the last Ice Age. Anyone concerned about the
ecology as a whole must worry far more about Ice Age than about greenhouse effect.
AFF - Warming Bad Impacts
Warming Causes Extinction
Warming causes extinction
Tickell 2008 (Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, August 11, 2008, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is
extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At
first sight this looks like wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we
could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a
catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably never spoke , "the
end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our
extinction. The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises
of 70-80 metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities, transport and
industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland. The world's geography would
be transformed much as it was at the end of the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to
create the Channel, the North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become extreme
and unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts, floods and hurricanes. The Earth's
carrying capacity would be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.
Human caused CO2 emissions cause extinction
Brandenburg and Paxon 1999 (John E. Brandenburg (physicist rocket scientist, Mars expert, investigator on MET project, NASA
technical advisor, former member of space transport subcommittee) Monica Rix Paxon (writer and scientific editor) Dead Mars, Dying Earth,
1999, p.46 - 47
Gradually, incrementally, we
are changing Earth’s atmosphere. But are we slowly altering our atmosphere away from
something that supports human life toward something deadly like the atmosphere of Mars? Such an
atmosphere would have been very familiar to Joseph Black, who isolated the very first atmospheric gas. Unitarian minister Joseph Priestley
would have recognized the atmosphere of Mars as well. So would coal miners from the early part of the 20th century and the canary that lay
gasping at the bottom of the cage, for the atmosphere of Mars is made of fixed air. The atmosphere of Mars is made of blackdamp. The
atmosphere of Mars is made of carbonic acid gas.
The atmosphere of Mars is made of a substance that has over
time had many names reflecting the toxic side of its nature. While today we call all of them “carbon
dioxide”
(which we think of as a benign product of our own bodies and the harmless bubbles in soda pop),
clearly not always been viewed as a harmless gas.
this substance has
Nor should it be in the future, for it is time once again to inform our
opinions about this substance and recognize its invisible, dark side. As long as a stylus attached to the monitoring equipment in some lonely
station on the top of an inactive volcano in Hawaii continues to etch a line ratcheting upward—showing the increased amounts of carbon
dioxide that, year after year, flood our atmosphere, threatening us—then we too must think of it very differently. It
isn’t a matter of
speculation. It is a matter of hard, cold scientific fact supported by numerous studies conducted by
many respected scientists . ’7~ In the overwhelming majority they agree: Earth’s atmosphere has far too much of
what we now must think of as carbon die-oxide. It is warming our planet to the point where life,
human life, is endangered. We are going to have to do something decisive and effective about this killer. No matter how
successful or enlightened we think ourselves to be, we are not exempt from the need to act—in the same way that we are not exempt from
the need to breathe.
Too fast to adapt
Berger 2000 (John J. Berger, independent energy and environmental consultant with a Ph.D. in ecology
from UC Davis, Beating the Heat, 2000, p. 13)
True, global temperatures have risen before and nature has adapted. In that sense, nature is
indifferent to how ecosystems jockey for position across the Earth. But previous warmings of the
magnitude now projected have taken place over millennia, not over decades or centuries. The
natural world has had far more time to adapt to the new conditions. And neither superhighways
nor urban sprawl halted those ancient migrations. Moreover, in prehistoric times, the world’s
population was thousands of times smaller than the six billion people alive today. Human
consumption of the world’s natural resources was minuscule. By contrast, the natural resources on
which today’s huge population depend are already overexploited.
Warming Causes War
Climate change makes war more likely
Shachtman 2008—(Noah. Contributor to the dangeroom.com.“Nation’s Spies: Climate Change Could
Spark War.” June 23, 2008. <http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/06/environmental-g/>
Accessed: 8/16/09)
Environmental groups have been warning for years that tense parts of the world could get even worse
with the advent of global climate change, and even spark whole new conflicts. Now, the nation’s
spies are saying pretty much the same thing. The U.S. intelligence community has finished up its
classified assessment of how our changing weather patterns could contribute to "political
instability around the world, the collapse of governments and the creation of terrorist safe
havens," Inside Defense reports. Congress was briefed on the report last week. And on Wednesday,
leading spies — including National Intelligence Council chairman Dr. Thomas Fingar and Energy
Department intelligence chief Rolf Mowatt-Larsen — will testify on the Hill about the 58-page
document, "The National Security Implications of Global Climate Change Through 2030." In addition
to examining how weather could add stress to governments with a weak grip on power … the authors
mulled a spectrum of second- and third-order consequences for Washington policymakers to consider
— including indirect security concerns like impacts on economies, energy, social unrest and
migration. Foreign-policy concerns were also weighed, including how flooding, rising water levels or
drought might create humanitarian crises. Also examined was how extreme weather events could
challenge the response capabilities of governments around the world. "Climate change is a threat
multiplier in the world’s most unstable regions," a source familiar with the document tells Danger
Room. "It’s like a match to the tinder." Just think about the fights over water already under way in the
Middle East and Africa, or the tensions exacerbated by the hurricanes and tsunamis in Asia.
More evidence—Will cause wars
Shachtman 2008—(Noah. Contributor to the dangeroom.com.“Nation’s Spies: Climate Change Could
Spark War.” June 23, 2008. <http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/06/environmental-g/>
Accessed: 8/16/09)
But the nation’s military leadership, at least, is paying closer attention. "Climate change and other
projected trends will compound already difficult conditions in many developing countries. These
trends will increase the likelihood of humanitarian crises, the potential for epidemic diseases, and
regionally destabilizing population migrations," the Army says in its 2008 posture statement. "We
are [f]acing challenges from multiple sources: a new, more malignant form of terrorism inspired by
jihadist extremism, ethnic strife, disease, poverty, climate change, failed and failing states, resurgent
powers, and so on," Defense Secretary Robert Gates told an audience at American University in April.
Climate Change empirically causes wars
Thompson 2007—(Andrea. LiveScience Staff writer. “Climate Change Can Spark War.” November 21,
2007. <http://www.livescience.com/environment/071121-gw-war.html> Accessed: 8/16/09)
History may be bound to repeat itself as Earth’s climate continues to warm, with changing
temperatures causing food shortages that lead to wars and population declines, according to a new
study that builds on earlier work. The previous study, by David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong,
found that swings in temperature were correlated with times of war in Eastern China between 1000
and 1911. Zhang's newer work, detailed in the Nov. 19 online edition of the journal Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, broadens its outlook to climate and war records worldwide and also
found a correlation between the two. "This current study covers a much larger spatial area and the
conclusions from the current research could be considered general principles," Zhang said.
Warming Bad- Economy
Global warming negatively affects the economy in more ways than the case
Mongo Bay News 2007—(“Climate change will impact U.S. economy.” October 16, 2007. <http://news.mongabay.com/2007/1016climate.html> Accessed: 8/16/09)
Climate change will have a significant economic impact on the United States, reports a new study
published by researchers from the University of Maryland. The report, The U.S. Economic Impacts of
Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction, aggregates and analyzes previous economic research in order
to develop a better estimate of the costs of climate change. "The range of climatic changes
anticipated in the United States — from rising sea levels to stronger and more frequent storms and
extreme temperature events — will have real impacts on the natural environment as well as humanmade infrastructure and their ability to contribute to economic activity and quality of life," write the
authors. "These impacts will vary across regions and sectors of the economy, leaving future
governments, the private sector and citizens to face the full spectrum of direct and indirect costs accrued
from increasing environmental damage and disruption." The authors say there has been limited research
on the long-term costs of addressing the economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural,
manufacturing and public service sectors. They argue that inaction could steeply increase the cost of
adaptation. "Climate change will affect every American economically in significant, dramatic
ways, and the longer it takes to respond, the greater the damage and the higher the costs," said lead
researcher Matthias Ruth, director of the University of Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental
Research. "The national debate is often framed in terms of how much it will cost to reduce greenhouse
gases, with little or no consideration of the cost of no response or the cost of waiting. Review and
analysis of existing data suggest that delay will prove costly and tip the economic scales in favor of
quicker strategic action." The report concludes: Economic impacts of climate change will occur
throughout the country. Economic impacts will be unevenly distributed across regions and within the
economy and society. Negative climate impacts will outweigh benefits for most sectors that provide
essential goods and services to society. Climate change impacts will place immense strains on
public sector budgets. Secondary effects of climate impacts can include higher prices, reduced
income and job losses.
Warming Bad- Disease
Global warming exacerbates disease outbreaks
Boyles and Chang, 2009—(Salynn. Louise. MD. “Report: Climate Change Threatens Health: Scientists Say Global Warming Will Increase
Malaria and Other Diseases.” May 13, 2009. WebMD Health News. <http://www.webmd.com/news/20090513/report-climate-changethreatens-health> Accessed: 6/3/09)
Deaths from heat waves, malaria, and other vector-borne diseases (diseases transmitted by sources
such as mosquitoes or ticks) are projected to rise as global temperatures increase. But the report
identifies food and water shortages and increasingly violent weather events as the biggest climatechange-related threats to human health. Pediatrician Anthony Costello, MD, who chaired the
commission that issued the report, says there is new evidence that climate change is occurring faster
than many experts had anticipated. He tells WebMD that recent findings on greenhouse gas
emissions, global temperature changes, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic
events suggest that climate forecasts made in 2007 by an international panel evaluating climate
change may be optimistic. "
Extinction
Steinbruner 1998— (John D- Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy)
That deceptively simple observation has immense implications. The use of a manufactured weapon is a
singular event. Most of the damage occurs immediately. The aftereffects, whatever they may be,
decay rapidly over time and distance in a reasonably predictable manner. Even before a nuclear
warhead is detonated, for instance, it is possible to estimate the extent of the subsequent damage and
the likely level of radioactive fallout. Such predictability is an essential component for tactical military
planning. The use of a pathogen , by contrast, is an extended process whose scope and timing
cannot be preciselys controlled. For most potential biological agents, the predominant drawback is
that they would not act swiftly or decisively enough to be an effective weapon. But for a few
pathogens--ones most likely to have a decisive effect and therefore the ones most likely to be
contemplated for deliberately hostile use-the risk runs in the other direction. A lethal pathogen that
could efficiently spread from one victim to another would be capable of initiating an intensifying
cascade of disease that might ultimately threaten the entire world population. The 1918 influenza
epidemic demonstrated the potential for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer
limit.
Warming Bad- Terrorism
Environmental disruption results in terrorist attacks
Gelbspan 1997—Ross Gelbspan (editor and reporter at The Boston Globe and The Washington Post and
professor at the Columbia University School of Journalism) The Heat is On, 1997, p. 165
Environmental disruptions in the poor areas of the globe will not remain conveniently
compartmentalized within their borders. If displaced refugees in South America, Asia, and Africa
continue to burn trees and grasslands for fuel and settlements, that removal of vegetation will accelerate
global warming. The plants and trees of the terrestrial ecosystem are the largest absorbers of carbon
dioxide, which otherwise rises into the atmosphere. Nor is it the environ¬ment alone that overflows
national borders. The economy is also global. As more and more inhabitants of the poor countries
are displaced, the emerging markets of the developing world will begin to collapse —exerting a
tremendous downward pressure on centers of trade, finance, and manufacturing in the North.
Without the continued development of emerging markets, the international economy will begin to
contract, severely eroding the basis of its survival. The U nited S tates , like any open society, is
vulnerable to terrorism. A significant surge in terrorism is the likeliest result of the desperation
that is overtaking many people in environmentally disrupted countries. “The World Trade Center
was easy,” Norman Myers says. “ The next time a nuclear device is set off, it most likely will not be
by a government. It will probably be set off by some group of people who are so frustrated at being
consigned to desperation that they will be driven to potentially outrageous acts of terrorism.”
Extinction
Alexander 2003—(Yonah prof and dir. of Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, Washington Times,
August 28)
Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated
dramatically that the international community failed, thus far at least, to understand the
magnitude and implications of the terrorist threat s to the very survival of civilization itself. Even
the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or
irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. It is not surprising,
therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al
Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers.
Likewise, Israel and its citizens, despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts
of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago, are still "shocked" by
each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process
through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. Why are the United States and Israel, as well
as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new
terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons, including misunderstanding of the manifold specific
factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism, the
religionization of politics, double standards of morality, weak punishment of terrorists, and the
exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. Unlike their historical
counterparts, contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional
and unconventional threats and impact. The internationalization and brutalization of current and
future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e.g. biological,
chemical, radiological, nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national,
regional and global security concerns.