* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download issues and challenges of island environment
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Australia wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Dr. S. Dam Roy Director, ICAR-CIARI WORLD ENVIRONMENT DAY ISSUES AND CHALLENGES OF ISLAND ENVIRONMENT 2015 What is Climate change?? … Everyone has heard the phrase, but what does it actually mean? “Climate Change = The change in average conditions of a particular place over a long period of time. (We usually link ‘climate change’ to rising temperatures but this is NOT the full story). HINT: Climate is what you expect, Weather is what you get! Climate Change vs Global Warming Global warming refers to the rise in average surface temperature of the earth. Climate change refers to all changing factors of Earth’s climate including temperature, rain, wind and humidity. Temperature is not the only thing that is changing and it is not just getting hotter. Interesting revelations on climate change… “Use of energy in New York can affect the life of birds in the Harren Island on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia” “Climate change has taught us how closely the world is connected” “The contribution of Islands to Climate Change is insignificant (0.03%)but they stand first in facing the brunt of Climate Change….” Increasing temperature trend.. According to the IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Increasing global sea level rise trend.. Islands will experience the first effect of sea level rise Islands like Car Nicobar, Chowra are most vulnerable Though the effect may not be immediate it will surely influence the livelihood in future Shift of SST in India- A Scenario Ocean Acidification…An another concern for Marine ecosystems.. Some of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is also being dissolved into the ocean. This is causing the water to become more acidic. This is bad news for marine ecosystems, especially to coral reefs, fish, marine mammals and other animals who call the ocean their home. It is also bad news for those who rely on fishing for their businesses or as a source of food. Importance of climate change and associated effects Growth reduction & Mortality Multiple stress (Thermal + pH) pH stress Thermal stress Changes in temperature Bio-molecular changes Climate change Acid rain Organic decomposition Changes Ammonia level Changes in pH in the environment Integrated Assessment Model for Climate Change on Ecosystem CLIMATE CHANGE • • • • • Climate change impacts on ecosystem Temperature variation Sea level rise Changes in rain pattern Depletion of Oxygen Droughts and floods • • • • Socio-Economic Impact Environmental Impacts • Income Societal adaptation Distribution Pattern Species Extinction. Disease Susceptibility Livelihood ADAPTATION • Employment • Malnutrition • Reduction in ancillary activity Mitigation Measures Interactions with Multiple Stressors • Local Adaptation • Advance information & planning • Reduction in Anthropogenic emissions MITIGATION • Biotechnological & genetic manipulation • Dietary manipulation (Neutracueticals) Physiological Impact • • • • • Migration to comfortable zone Maturation & Breeding Cycle Embryonic development Hypoxia Changes at Organism, cellular, molecular & organelles level Failure Species Extinction Physiological adaptation Climate induced in marine ecosystems… Physical Temperature & Sea level Salinity, pH, Currents Nutrients Oxygen Ice cover Turbulence & mixing Wind - Speed & Direction Storm -Frequency/intensity Evaporation Precipitation & Runoff Ecological Fisheries Species distribution Productivity Reproduction & Recruitment Distribution migration, abundance Physiology & Behaviour Sex ratios Calcification rates Upwelling Coastal habitat loss Coral bleaching frequency & severity Disease Incidence Algal blooms Species availability Days at sea Accidents Loss of harbour/ homes Damage to assets High insurance costs Livelihood diversification Difficulty in seasonal livelihood activities Consequences of climate change… ● Increase in air temperature ● Increase in sea surface temperature (SST) ● Increase in sea-level ● Increase in CO2 in atmosphere and water ● Changes in rainfall/ extreme rainfall events ● More extreme weather conditions- more number of cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons Some Negative Consequences of climate change… • In Asia alone more than a billion people will be affected by water shortage by 2050. • Changes to India's annual monsoon are expected to result in severe droughts and intense flooding in parts of India. • With more than 60% of agriculture dependent on rain-fed crops, even modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall should cause a large negative impact on food production. • Increase in water borne diseases such as cholera and hepatitis, as well as diseases carried by insects such as malaria. • Climate change is expected to contribute to air quality problems and respiratory disorders will increase due to warming-induced increases in the frequency of smog. Why our Islands are significant in CC context… • Limited physical size in case of Nicobar Islands: Makes coastal retreat impossible where entire islands may be inundated • Relative isolation • Limited natural resources and over exploitation • Import dependence on external markets • Intra- and inter-island migration • Growing urbanization: e.g. degrading natural sea defenses • Poorly infrastructure, Limited funds and human resource skills severely limits the capacity to adapt Important events concerning Islands … Over past decade the Islands have witnessed significant events concerning climate change and meteorological parameters X PLAN 2002 2007 Tsunami Major destruction in Andaman and Nicobar Islands Land subduction Inundation of sea water in agri fields 2007 2012 Mass bleaching of corals in Andaman 60-70% of live corals damaged 2017 Major dry season incidence Reduced rainfall Major cyclone incidences Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans … Andaman Group of Islands • Mountainous volcanic islands • Threats due to sea-level rise is NOT severe • But there is threat to livelihood due to loss of key habitats Nicobar Group of Islands • Coral Islands: Mostly flat topography • Rise in sea-level would mean higher tides/storm surges • Extreme climates may affect the freshwater supply • Threats to livelihood due to loss of land, key habitats Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans … Three pillars Economy ● Tourism ● Fisheries ● Agriculture of Coastal Habitats affecting Tourism and fisheries Bleaching of corals in Andaman waters… Due to the elevated SST and subsequent mass bleaching in 2010, 60-70% of corals have been destroyed in Andaman Aug 2010 May 2010 Damage to corals due to Myanmar Storm, May 2011 Mangroves and its importance… • All social and ecological value depending on Mangroves will be affected. • Income of fishermen will be drastically affected. • Commercial fisheries related to Mangrove ecosystem will be affected. • Loss of habitat for a number of molluscs, birds, insects, crustaceans, monkeys, and reptiles. • Mangrove destruction will affect coastal development and human safety. Influence on Marine Fisheries…. • Loss of corals and mangrove ecosystems would result in reduction in recruitment of fishes and thus productivity. • Increased temperature reduces dissolved oxygen and also leads to harmful algal blooms : Mass mortality of fish • Climate change alters local ecosystems – competitors and predators • Increases risk involved in fishing (due to storms/cyclones) • Loss of fishing infrastructure Chowra is the most vulnerable island to climate-associated disasters Agricultural Vulnerability map prepared based on multiple parameters showed that about 20% of the area in Car Nicobar has high vulnerability to climate change Coral Demise Model Predictions… 1. Corals in Indian Seas bleached during 1998, 2002 and 2010 due to high seawater temperature. 2. Considering the threshold temperature of bleaching; and how many times the threshold will be exceeded in this century, the number of bleaching events until 2100 was predicted. 3. It appears that coral bleaching may be an annual event from the year 2020. Predicted demise of Indian corals Region Andaman Decade at which corals begin to decline 2030 - 2040 Decade at which corals would be remnant 2050 - 2060 Nicobar 2020 - 2030 2050 - 2060 Lakshadwee 2020 - 2030 p Gulf of 2030 - 2040 Mannar Gulf of 2030 - 2040 Kachchh 2030 - 2040 2050 - 2060 2060 - 2070 Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries… Bangladesh Myanmar Thailand Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries… A Least Developed Country with an Unstable political environment Burma Donors don’t trust govt and hence no funds flow Poor response from Govt. to deal with climate change Unprotected coasts Witnessing adverse climate changes (Frequent floods/Cyclones) almost every year during last three decades. Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries… 1% of the world’s tropical storms hit Bangladesh. Bangladesh More than 36% of the people live below poverty line. Per capita income is US $370, emphasizing the economic depression. Climate models estimate a constant increase of temperature in Bangladesh and vulnerability to water related diseases. Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries… • Low level lands, occupying 80% of the country – they are disaster prone. • About 10% of the country is hardly 1 m above the mean sea level. • Higher population density (>1209 persons per km2; 133 million people) limits the migration within the country. Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries… Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries… 1. Coastal regions of Thailand are extremely vulnerable to climate changes. 2. Coastal erosion, altered wetlands, frequent floods are some of the observed impacts of climate change. 3. Most of the population reside in proximity to the oceans. 4. Landslides pose a serious threat to these coastal villages. Thailand How nearby countries influence our security … • Displaced people may move to our islands. As the population is ethnically similar to our population it is difficult to identify them. These will be potential security risk • Loss of livelihood of this huge population may lead to poaching in our seas. • This can also lead to their taking up drug trafficking, gun running using our sea routes at the behest of bigger player antagonistic to our interests Climate Change will surely Influence … • Tourism • Food security • Infrastructure • Economic and Financial Impacts • Coastal and Marine resources • Water resources • Health Key message: Adaptation is a ‘no regrets’ strategy with immediate benefits Adaptation is an opportunity to improve: • natural resource management and physical planning • ability to deal with the natural hazards as well as the growing human-induced stresses on the environment. • Adaptive responses can be: – Technological (e.g. improving coastal defences) – Managerial (e.g. introducing crop rotation) – Policy-based (e.g. strengthening planning regulations) – Behavioural (e.g. preparing one’s home for a hurricane) Key message: Good climate policy should adapt and mitigate. Reactions….