Download Climate Change Impacts in Manitoba

IISD
Commentary
Opinions and insights from the International Institute for Sustainable Development
March 2007
Climate Change Impacts in Manitoba
IISD President looks at farming, the north, Lake Winnipeg and urban life
By David Runnalls
In March 2007, IISD’s President and CEO, David Runnalls, produced a series on four aspects of climate
change for the Winnipeg Free Press. The four editorials are reproduced together here.
1. The End of Farming as We Know It
OUR climate is shifting and with it comes uncertainty,
change and more frequent and intense extreme
weather events. While Manitobans and other prairie
dwellers are accustomed to weather conditions that
change on a yearly, seasonal and even hourly basis,
climate change is going to greatly amplify this
variability. Our province is particularly vulnerable to
climate change because of the importance of weatherdependent economic activities like agriculture,
forestry, tourism, energy, fisheries and transportation.
cereals to corn and soybeans, which adapt better to
warmer climates. If precipitation during the growing
season is highly variable, pulse crops that have
indeterminate growth habits (e.g., lentils) or longer
reproductive growth periods (e.g., chickpeas), might
have an advantage over crops that have more
determinant (e.g., cereals) or shorter reproductive
growth periods. In drier areas, an increase in summer
Manitobans need to prepare in advance for these
changes. Our agricultural sector in particular is highly
vulnerable to the expected consequences of climate
change. Agricultural exports contribute approximately
$3 billion to Manitoba’s economy annually.
Predictions are that average potential crop yields could
fall by 10 to 30 per cent due to higher temperatures
and lower soil moisture. Further disruption of this
already stressed economic sector could have
significant implications for the farm family and the
overall economic well-being of our province.
What are some things Manitoba’s farmlands may need
to consider in order to anticipate the expected impacts
of climate change? Some research suggests that there
may need to be a shift in Manitoba from small grain
“Our agricultural sector in particular is highly vulnerable
to the expected consequences of climate change,"
writes David Runnalls. Photo by Don Berg.
fallow might be a way to compensate for the increased
aridity. Diversification of crop production may help
producers reduce income loss from year to year due to
the risks associated with climate change.
The type and amount of agricultural inputs used by
producers, such as fertilizers, pesticides and energy,
will also need to change as cropping patterns are
altered.
A changing climate will also affect the abundance and
distribution of various weed, pests and diseases. It is
anticipated that new weed species will arrive and place
additional stress on crops already weakened by
predicted shortfalls in summer precipitation. If
droughts and floods become more frequent, more
vigorous weeds might also appear.
Warmer winters could help some pests, such as
aphids, over-winter and cause damage in the spring
time. In addition, extra heat in the summertime might
likely increase the possibility, frequency, and number
of generations per year of pests such as grasshoppers
or mites.
However, by far the greatest impacts will be those
related to the availability of water. Through ingenuity
and hard work, prairie farmers have established farms
in a region prone to dryness. They have introduced
crops that respond to expected levels of rain and,
particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan, established
extensive irrigation systems. Agricultural production
on the prairies currently consumes about half of all
the water used in Canada.
Climate change brings with it projections of increases
in temperature, precipitation and evaporation, the net
effect being greater aridity. Along with these changes
there is expected to be increased incidences of drought
and less frequent, but significantly more intense,
rainstorms.
As temperatures increase, demand for water will
increase. In the absence of long-term planning, an
increase in need for crop irrigation combined with a
decrease in access to fresh water is a recipe for disaster.
There are numerous responses that can be taken to help
Manitoba’s agricultural sector prepare for and adapt to
the impacts of climate change. These approaches should
look beyond ad hoc interim solutions to a deeper level
that addresses economic, social and environmental
concerns in an integrated manner. Clearly a no-regrets
strategy involves soil and water conservation. However,
building the capacity of farm families and the
agriculture sector to adapt to climate change is going to
require a combination of new and traditional farming
and management skills, timely access to information,
technology, infrastructure, and more reliance on
informal and formal relationships among producers
within the sector.
Efforts to integrate management of water and
agriculture are already occurring in Manitoba. A recent
analysis of Manitoba’s Conservation Districts (CD)
program by the International Institute for Sustainable
Development noted that the community-based decision
making approach of the CD program to water and soil
conservation can play a leading role in supporting
adaptation to climate change. The review found that
CDs “consistently adapted to new conservation
challenges, in some cases with completely unanticipated
stakeholders and around unexpected issues.” The most
successful CDs were the ones with physical boundaries
that conformed to watershed boundaries, and had clear
jurisdiction rules in place, particularly over drainage
issues. The decentralization of power and decisionmaking to local communities found in CDs can work
with a defined role and clear authority. Encouraging and
enhancing this type of community approach to
adaptation will benefit not only farmers, but
Manitobans as a whole.
Manitoba, already a leader in reducing the greenhouse
gas emissions that are fuelling climate change, has the
opportunity to also take a leading role in
implementing sustainable agricultural practices that
respond to climate
change. We can
“Manitoba… has the opportunity
to also take a leading role in
implementing sustainable
agricultural practices that
respond to climate change.”
lead the way in
sustainable
development practices that will prepare provinces and
the country as a whole to adapt to the changes we can
no longer prevent.
2. Northern Exposure: The people of
Manitoba’s high north facing
a major upheaval
BY NOW most Canadians are aware that our Arctic
environment is the proverbial “canary in the coal
mine” of global warming. Canada’s northern
communities have been experiencing the effects of
global warming for over a decade now. It is a terrible
irony that those who have had little to do with the
cause of the planet’s warming will suffer its most
harmful effects. From sub-Saharan Africa to Pacific
Island States to Arctic communities, those who live
closest to the land are feeling the effect of climate
change first.
Projections show that as the climate changes,
Manitobans will see a substantial change in the
climate of the eco-zones in our province, particularly
in our North. Some estimates suggest that the areas
around Hudson’s Bay could see an increase of up to
10˚C in temperature. This will be a drastic shift for the
region’s landscape, wildlife and people. These
communities are already experiencing the effects of
climate change before the rest of Manitobans, and
with greater strength. Planning now for projected
changes will help lessen the impact and enable
northern communities adjust to a new future.
One of the most critical factors affecting northern
Manitobans is transportation into towns and remote
communities. Northern life depends on access to
winter roads for the transportation of goods, produce,
construction material, equipment and people.
Ironically, many remote First Nations communities
rely on oil and diesel trucked in over ice roads to meet
their energy needs. But over the past decade the
period of time during which winter roads are available
has shortened dramatically. What was once a
transportation window of 50 to 55 days went down to
a low of 20 days in the winter of 2000.
Reduced access to winter roads means that more
goods need to be flown into remote communities,
resulting in higher living costs and potential lower
quality of life and health. For example, due to warmer
temperatures in 1997–1998, $14 million was spent
flying supplies into communities normally served by
winter roads. That figure will only increase as our
planet warms if we do not take appropriate steps now
to prepare for the future.
Significant changes are also projected with respect to
the extent of continuous and discontinuous
permafrost in Manitoba. Permafrost is extremely
sensitive to changes in global temperatures. While
snow and sea ice reflect much of the Earth’s energy
back into the atmosphere, dark earth and oceans
absorb most of it. A temperature increase of only 1 to
2˚C can seriously affect the ground and the permafrost
within it.
Permafrost is the foundation material for much of
Manitoba’s northern communities. One of the most
essential elements of this frozen layer of rock and ice
was its permanency. Now that appears to no longer be
a given. As the ice melts and re-freezes, the
foundations of homes, buildings and infrastructure
buckle. Disruption of the permafrost that underlies
parts of northern Manitoba has serious implications
for existing transportation corridors such as railway
lines, roadways and landing strips of local airports.
These vital links are critical to the health and welfare
of northern Manitoban residents.
Another significant concern facing us today is the
potential effect of large scale melting of permafrost.
Scientists have recently suggested that the amount of
carbon in a particular type of permafrost known as
yedoma, found largely in Siberia, may yield 100 times
the carbon that has already been released by the
burning of fossil fuels. The thawing or, worse still,
possible burning of Manitoba’s permafrost peatlands
has the potential to release a significant amount of
stored carbon back into the atmosphere.
More drastic than the effects seen on our built
environment are the effects of climate change on our
natural northern landscapes. Loss of summer ice and
longer ice-free periods in Hudson Bay is proving to be
detrimental to polar bears and their ability to reproduce
and nurture their young. The bears need the ice to hunt
for ringed seals, their primary food source, in order to
build up and store weight for the rest of the year.
Scientists are already documenting a decline in the health
of Hudson Bay polar bears. The extirpation of polar
bears in Canada would be a tragic loss environmentally,
but would also reverberate economically.
Tourism is critical to Manitoba’s economy, accounting
for $1.39 billion in revenue in 2003 and approximately
17,100 jobs. For Churchill, polar-bear viewing brings
in approximately $23 million annually to this small
northern town. Without this critical environmental
tourism industry, many northern communities may
lose their largest single employer and industry.
What can we do? The province of Manitoba is already
preparing for changes by moving winter roads onto
land where possible instead of over rivers and lakes.
The Climate Change Task Force was established by the
province and with the assistance of the International
Institute for Sustainable Development, made
numerous recommendations for change. Many of
these have been adopted by the province and a revised
climate change plan is in the works.
The most important step, though, is the inclusion of
northern people into the discussion of climate change
and adaptation. The traditional knowledge of elders in
the North helped illuminate a problem with the
environment long before politicians saw the danger.
Now that the results are evident, we need to ensure
that northern communities have a say in how their
region can adapt—sustainably.
3. Lake Winnipeg in Hot Water
LAKE WINNIPEG is the focal point of a complex
basin. It is the catch basin for a land area an incredible
40 times its size, stretching from Thunder Bay to the
Rocky Mountains and south to Minnesota, the
Dakotas and Montana. Four provinces, four states and
two federal governments all have a voice in the
A view of Lake Winnipeg from Hecla Island. Over 1,000
fishers are licensed to work on the lake. Photo by Don
Berg.
determination of the future of this lake through their
policies, laws and the activities of their citizens.
Commercial and sport fishers, lodge owners, cottage
owners, municipalities, parks departments, federal,
provincial, municipal and First Nation governments,
interest groups and the public at large all have a stake
in the world’s 10th largest fresh water lake.
The impacts of climate change will only add to the
challenges already being faced by Lake Winnipeg. As
Manitobans noticed last summer, the blue-green algae
blooms in the lake’s north basin are already a concern.
However, the blooms are not just unsightly for
cottagers and sailors on the lake. They are a real threat
to the lake’s inhabitants. After the algae blooms, it
dies, absorbing precious oxygen needed by the fish in
the lake as it decays. These blooms are only expected
to increase in frequency and extent as the lake water
warms. This very visible sign of the lake’s distress is
only one of the problems facing our favourite nature
areas in Manitoba due to climate change and
increasing pollution.
For over 100 years, Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba
have been home to Manitoba’s commercial fishery.
The majority of the fishery’s production is sold out of
the country and represents over $30 million annually
for Manitoba’s economy—a significant contribution.
About two-thirds of this amount is generated by the
commercial fishery on Lake Winnipeg. Over 1,000
licensed fishers are employed on this lake, harvesting a
variety of species including pickerel, goldeye, sauger
and whitefish. Several smaller lakes in southern and
northern Manitoba are also fished commercially,
including Southern Indian Lake.
Climate is the single most important factor
controlling biodiversity and the distribution of aquatic
organisms in Canadian lakes. This finding is true for
Lake Winnipeg, which is more vulnerable than other
lakes to a warming climate because of its relative
shallowness and a lack of thermal refuge for cold
water fish. As climate change proceeds, the lake’s
temperature, pH, and oxygen levels are expected to be
altered. These changes, either individually or
collectively, will impact the health, composition and
availability of fish. Research already shows significant
temperature increases in the south and north basin of
Lake Winnipeg since 1909 to 2004, with 1˚C increase
in average water temperatures in September in the
north basin and a 1.9˚C increase in average
temperatures in August in the south basin. Ice break
up has also occurred earlier during this same time
period.
Rising temperatures could benefit warm-water species
such as walleye, yellow perch and white bass by
creating conditions that promote the growth of
offspring better able to survive through shorter
winters. As most Lake Winnipeg fish species are nearer
to their northern rather than their southern limit,
climate change might not cause a large change in the
overall fish community. However, warming waters
could cause cold-water species like whitefish to die out
or become less productive. Of the 56 fish species
found in the northern and southern basins of Lake
Winnipeg, the thermal tolerance of five to 17 species
in the north basin might be exceeded by the
maximum surface water temperatures predicted by
current climate scenarios. In the south basic 16 to 31
species, or over half of the fish species, could be
impacted.
Invasive species might pose an additional challenge for
Lake Winnipeg. These species might thrive due to the
warmer lake temperatures and could appropriate or
destroy the habitat of native species. For commercial
fishers, the arrival of invasive species could be negative
if they displace current economic species, or beneficial
if there is a market and ability to harvest the new
arrivals. Exotic zooplankton, such as the E. coregoni
might also become more common and compete with
other native species.
In many ways forewarned is forearmed. A clearer
understanding of the likely effects of climate change
will help fishers, First Nations and the general public
to adapt to the changes we are already seeing in the
lake. But there are things we can do now to help the
lake in its battle against the elements.
The catch basin of Lake Winnipeg represents only a
small portion of the entire watershed region. Each
action upstream affects Lake Winnipeg and every
attempt to limit nutrient loading or pollution of the
rivers and streams leading into Lake Winnipeg will
help the lake heal and adapt to climate change
concerns in the future.
One unique approach to upstream watershed
management is a system that was successfully
implemented in the New York City watershed. In
1989, the city received an order from the
Environmental Protection Agency to install a new
filtration system costing an estimated six to eight
billion dollars for the population’s drinking water.
Balking at the high cost, the city looked for an
alternative approach and found one upstream in the
Catskills region. Instead of building a treatment
facility to clean the water after it’s been polluted, New
York decided to try to pay people to keep the
upstream water clean. Called Payment for Ecosystem
Services (PES) the plan ended up costing roughly one
quarter of the original estimate for the treatment
plant.
Manitoba is already experimenting with this form of
local watershed protection in the Alternative Land Use
Services (ALUS) research project in the rural
municipality of Blanshard. The first of its kind of
Canada, farmers and landowners will be paid to
maintain and enhance four different landscape types
that have public environmental benefits associated
with them: wetlands, ecologically sensitive lands,
riparian areas and naturals areas.
Watershed management is only one of the many issues
related to climate change that will need to be
addressed and PES is only one of the many tools at
our disposal for adaptation.
4. The Urban Meltdown: Cities need
plans to adapt to extreme weather
CITIZENS of metropolitan areas often feel insulated
from the effects of weather and its toll on the
environment. Protected by a large urban
infrastructure we think we are immune to the
droughts, floods and other extreme weather events
that can so adversely affect northern or rural areas.
But as Vancouver found out with its mudslides and
dramatic windstorms over the past year, cities are not
immune. And climate change is only going to increase
our vulnerability to the precariousness of extreme
weather events in Canada.
The climate change issue presents society with a dual
challenge. Not only must we mitigate the climate
change impact by reducing our emissions of
greenhouse gases. We must also quickly adapt to the
changes which are occurring now and build our
capacity to adapt to the future. Ideally we can do both,
but we need to start now.
Over 70 per cent of Manitoba’s population lives in the
capital region and other urban centres such as
Brandon, the Pas, Thompson and Churchill. Weather
and climate significantly affect the layout, operation
and budget of today’s cities and towns—affecting
snow removal, street repairs, storm drains and flood
protection measures. Climate change is predicted to
increase these costs, disrupt normal city functions
and, particularly in the case of extreme events, create
safety issues. Municipalities need to prepare for a
future of uncertainty and build their organizational
capacity to adapt quickly to those unforeseen risks
which will inevitably surprise us in the future.
One of the most likely areas of concern for
municipalities is a warming climate and larger
variability in temperatures. This could drastically
affect the operating costs of buildings, particularly
with respect to heating and cooling. Warmer winters
may increase precipitation in the form of heavy wet
snow, potentially exceeding current snowload limits
and standards. With these concerns, and volatile
energy market prices, municipalities have more reason
than ever to seriously consider energy-efficiency
measures and renewable energy sources for new
infrastructure.
The University of Winnipeg is going to provide an
excellent example of the forward thinking required for
new infrastructure. The newest building on the
Portage block will be the Richardson College of the
Environment, built to a certified LEED building
standard. The Leadership in Energy and
Environmental Design (LEED) rating system is in use
in the U.S. and has been adapted for Canada.
According to the Canadian Green Building Council
that certifies buildings in Canada, LEED buildings are
44 per cent more energy-efficient than their
conventional counterparts. That’s good news because
up to 40 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions come
from the operation of buildings, where we live and
where we work. A win-win approach would be to
develop new municipal structures that both reduce
operational costs and greenhouse gas emissions.
While mitigation and adaptation present society with
a dual challenge, it is possible to achieve the two at the
same time. For example, the planting of urban forests
helps reduce greenhouse gases by sequestering carbon
from the air, while at the same time it produces a
cooling effect in the summer—a welcomed benefit for
adapting to projected hotter summer temperatures.
Water conservation efforts are another good example.
With lower water consumption come lower energy use
and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. At the same
time, such efforts facilitate adaptation by making
more water available in times of drought.
Another major consideration for municipalities is
transportation, both public and private. Since the
transport of people and goods is a significant
contributor to climate change it seems only fair that
climate change will mean increased costs for transport
as well. Oil prices are unlikely to decrease over the
next few decades, but there will be other costs as well.
There will be changes in freeze/thaw cycles with the
potential to exacerbate our annual experience with
potholes in our roads. These same cycles can affect the
stability of buried water and sewer lines. An expected
increase in winter snowfall along with more freezing
rain, for example, means more sand and de-icing
materials will be needed by cities and municipalities to
maintain road safety. And even as public habits change
and people begin to use bus and bicycle modes of
transport more often, that will require increased
expenditures from the city to support these new
healthy habits.
But as New York City recognized way back in the
1880s, rapid transit may be the only means by which
to manage the mobility needs of the citizens
constrained by the physical reality of a city. Funnelling
a large population spread out over a prairie landscape
into a central area of work or a university involves
either enormous emissions of greenhouse gases or a
significant initial investment in a clean rapid transit
system. The expense now will be minuscule compared
to economic and environmental cost of the future.
Finally, insect and disease outbreaks in Manitoba’s
forests could also be affected by warmer summer
temperatures, milder winters, and more frequent
extreme weather events. Existing pest species like
spruce budworm and forest tent caterpillars are likely
to be encouraged by warmer conditions as milder
winters increase their over-wintering success. And
there is always the risk of warmer, moister springs
leading to the hatching of more of Manitoba’s mascot,
the mosquito. Finding environmentally-friendly ways
to reduce these pests now will greatly increase our
comfort levels for the future.
One thing that would greatly assist the City of
Winnipeg would be the establishment of a department
or division that looks at the viability of new
sustainable development projects and can absorb the
innovations and lessons learned from other cities that
have forged ahead. The complex multi-stakeholder
partnerships needed to implement sustainability
require more than Winnipeg’s one environmental coordinator to manage.
For example, the City of Montreal has an entire
department of sustainable environment that worked
with 60 local community groups to establish the first
Montreal Charter of Rights and Responsibilities.
While the Charter covers a wide area of social issues,
democracy, recreation and security there is a section
that specifically addresses the need for the
municipality to protect the natural environment.
Halifax and Calgary also have significant staff
clustered into single teams focused on environmental
management services.
Collaboration on these issues is critical and Mayor
Sam Katz’s new environmental committee is a step
forward in the development of new priorities
regarding our urban environment. Many of the
recommendations for municipalities these days to
adapt to and mitigate climate change may involve
expenditures that make mayors quake. But as other
communities have seen, the investment now will only
pay much higher dividends in the future, both in our
pocketbooks and in our world. The cost of doing
nothing is too high.
David Runnalls is President and CEO of the
International Institute for Sustainable Development.