* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Monitoring and Prediction of Western Water
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Past and Future Climate Change for Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D CRD Climate Change Adaptation 101 15 January 2010 Videoconference: University of Victoria - Nelson Trevor Murdock Climate Scientist Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium University of Victoria Outline 1. About PCIC 2. Relevant reports 3. Recent questions / topics 4. Climate change & variability Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium www.PacificClimate.org • Launched 2005 • Applications of research to management, planning, and decision-making • Partner with research labs, impacts researchers and regional stakeholders • Sister organization to Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions www.pics.uvic.ca PCIC Vision and Scope * A vision for a consortium emerged … to stimulate the collaboration of government, academia and industry to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events, climate variability and the threat of global change. The consortium for climate impacts will bridge the gap between climate research and climate applications, and will make practical information available to government, industry, and the public. * - Organizational Workshop (May, 2005) 4 Starting the Dialogue • Climate science for layperson • Recommendations on adaptation process • Impacts and potential adaptations by sector: – Water supply – Ground transportation – Community infrastructure & safety – Public health – Hydro-electric power – Forestry – Tourism and recreation – Agriculture Preliminary Analysis of Climate Variability and Change in the Canadian Columbia River Basin: Focus on Water Resources • Climate concepts, terms, and measurement • Climate change in the Basin – analysis of past trends and future projections • Climate impacts on water resources Analytical Summary Past Trends and Future Projections for the Canadian Columbia Basin: focus on Kimberley and Elkford • Regional climatology and trends • Regional hydroclimatology • Future projections – GCMs, RCMs, high resolution – Annual Temperature & Precipitation – Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation – Annual precipitation as snow – Growing degree days – Tree species suitability Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Canadian Columbia River Basin: A Literature Review • Water resources and hydrology • Energy, flood control, and transboundary • Biodiversity and forests • Fisheries • Agriculture • Infrastructure & transportation • Tourism and recreation • Human health • Recommendations for adaptation planning Outline 1. About PCIC 2. Relevant reports 3. Recent questions / topics 4. Climate change & variability Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D Initial priorities: Oct 2009 – – – – – – Water Socio-economic Transportation Infrastructure and Utilities Agriculture Interface fire – Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to small water systems to understand impact and adaptation possibilities Recent questions / topics 1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? 2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover? 3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change? Do we monitor the water levels of the source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not glacier fed.) 4) Glacier impacts 5) Extremes and local weather station information 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? • Increases of 500 – 100 Growing Degree Days at most locations 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? • VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model – University of Washington and PCIC (new results in progress) • Results at Duncan – increasing spring runoff, decreasing summer 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? • Less change than most Columbia Basin watersheds but still increased streamflow in spring, decreased in summer 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? • WaSim (Water Simulation model) at Donald: high resolution hydrological model – in development at PCIC 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? • Online subscription • Includes basic climate change scenarios • Ted van der Gulik, BC Ministry of Ag and Lands http://bc.waterbalance.ca/ 1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? • Frequency of occurrence of high risk to water supply depends on climate model and emissions scenario – Denise Neilsen, Ag Canada • Individual policies assist with meeting future demand but only combined policies meet full target – Tina Neal, CAS & Stewart Cohen, Env Canada 2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover? • Could be determined by vulnerability assessment • Some suggestions from PCIC hydrologists – – – – – Low flows High flows Summer evapotranspiration / soil moisture Seasonal / monthly vs. annual Need to look at wet season compared with dry season summer runoff compared to snowpack 3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change? Do we monitor the water levels of the source? In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed. • Five mile creek: El Nino earlier and weaker spring peaks than La Nina Annual and Decadal Variability are superimposed on Climate Change Trends Normals Climate Change Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries) Climate Variability Short term : (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) Normals Climate Oscillations Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO) 4) Glacier impacts • 0-degree isotherm crude approximation of glaciated areas – almost vanishes by 2050s • See http://wc2n.unbc.ca/ for more glacier analysis 5) Extremes and local weather station information Analysis of past and future extremes is just beginning. Rainfall • prec90p 90th percentile of rain day amounts (mm/day) • 644R5d Greatest 5-day total rainfall • 646SDII Simple Daily Intensity (rain per rain day) • 641CDD Max no. consecutive dry days • 691R90T % of total rainfall from events > long-term P90 • 692R90N No. of events > long-term 90th percentile of rain days Temperature • tmax90p Tmax 90th percentile • tmin10p Tmin 10th percentile • 125Fd Number of frost days (Tmin < 0 deg C) • 144HWDI Heat Wave Duration 5) Extremes and local weather station information Kootenay national park Outline 1. About PCIC 2. Relevant reports 3. Recent questions / topics 4. Climate change & variability Kaslo and Regional District of Central Kootenay Area D Annual and Decadal Variability are superimposed on Climate Change Trends Normals Climate Change Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries) Climate Variability Short term : (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) Normals Climate Oscillations Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO) Baseline Climatology El Nino / La Nina Pacific Decadal Oscillation Trend Analysis -5 stations Golden Revelstoke Kaslo Cranbrook Creston Elevations: Cranbrook 918 m Golden 785 m Creston 597 m Kaslo 591 m Revelstoke 443 m - regional average - computed linear trend and 95% confidence intervals - Mann Kendall covariance analysis between stations: mean annual temperature 0.86 total annual precipitation 0.46 total annual rain 0.40 snow 0.55 1913-2002 Temperature Record Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock) 1913-2002 Temperature Trends and confidence intervals Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock) 50-yr Temperature Trends Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock) 30-yr Temperature Trends Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock) 1913-2002 Precipitation Record Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock) What are Global Climate Models? • GCMs compute global weather patterns several times per day projected over the next century • GCMs are the “…only credible tools currently available for simulating the physical processes that determine global climate...” [IPCC] Source: David Viner, UK Climate Impacts LINK Project Adaptation required even with mitigation Warming large compared to historical variability BC Mean Annual Temperature Anomalies (from 1961-1990 baseline) UVic ESCM % reduction from 2006 levels by 2050 compared to median of AR4 GCM projections for A2, B1, and A1B (20 yr centered means) 4 3 Past 0% 2 25% 50% 75% 1 100% Obs 0 A2 B1 A1B -1 -2 1910 36 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 GCM RCM GCM RCM Climate change impacts: planning & management e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin 1961-1990 2020s Climate change impacts: planning & management e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin 1961-1990 2080s Initial priorities: Oct 2009 – – – – – – Water Socio-economic Transportation Infrastructure and Utilities Agriculture Interface fire – Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to small water systems to understand impact and adaptation possibilities Recent questions 1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns? 2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover? 3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream flow from that of climate change? Do we monitor the water levels of the source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not glacier fed.) 4) Glacier impacts 5) Extremes and local weather station information Thank you For more information www.PacificClimate.org