Download Monitoring and Prediction of Western Water

Past and Future Climate Change
for Kaslo and Regional District of
Central Kootenay Area D
CRD Climate Change Adaptation 101
15 January 2010
Videoconference: University of Victoria - Nelson
Trevor Murdock
Climate Scientist
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
University of Victoria
Outline
1. About PCIC
2. Relevant reports
3. Recent questions / topics
4. Climate change & variability Kaslo and Regional District of
Central Kootenay Area D
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
www.PacificClimate.org
• Launched 2005
• Applications of research to management,
planning, and decision-making
• Partner with research labs, impacts
researchers and regional stakeholders
• Sister organization to Pacific Institute for
Climate Solutions www.pics.uvic.ca
PCIC Vision and Scope *
A vision for a consortium emerged … to
stimulate the collaboration of government,
academia and industry to reduce
vulnerability to extreme weather events,
climate variability and the threat of global
change. The consortium for climate
impacts will bridge the gap between climate
research and climate applications, and will
make practical information available to
government, industry, and the public.
* - Organizational Workshop (May, 2005)
4
Starting the Dialogue
• Climate science for layperson
• Recommendations on
adaptation process
• Impacts and potential
adaptations by sector:
– Water supply
– Ground transportation
– Community infrastructure &
safety
– Public health
– Hydro-electric power
– Forestry
– Tourism and recreation
– Agriculture
Preliminary Analysis of Climate Variability and Change in
the Canadian Columbia River Basin: Focus on Water
Resources
• Climate concepts, terms,
and measurement
• Climate change in the
Basin – analysis of past
trends and future
projections
• Climate impacts on water
resources
Analytical Summary
Past Trends and Future Projections for the Canadian
Columbia Basin: focus on Kimberley and Elkford
• Regional climatology and
trends
• Regional hydroclimatology
• Future projections
– GCMs, RCMs, high resolution
– Annual Temperature &
Precipitation
– Seasonal Temperature &
Precipitation
– Annual precipitation as snow
– Growing degree days
– Tree species suitability
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Canadian
Columbia River Basin: A Literature Review
• Water resources and
hydrology
• Energy, flood control, and
transboundary
• Biodiversity and forests
• Fisheries
• Agriculture
• Infrastructure & transportation
• Tourism and recreation
• Human health
• Recommendations for
adaptation planning
Outline
1. About PCIC
2. Relevant reports
3. Recent questions / topics
4. Climate change & variability Kaslo and Regional District of
Central Kootenay Area D
Initial priorities: Oct 2009
–
–
–
–
–
–
Water
Socio-economic
Transportation
Infrastructure and Utilities
Agriculture
Interface fire
– Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to
small water systems to understand impact and
adaptation possibilities
Recent questions / topics
1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on
streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?
2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that
should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover?
3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream
flow from that of climate change? Do we monitor the water levels of the
source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not
glacier fed.)
4) Glacier impacts
5) Extremes and local weather station information
1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but
also on changing agricultural patterns?
• Increases of 500 – 100 Growing Degree Days at
most locations
1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but
also on changing agricultural patterns?
• VIC (Variable Infiltration
Capacity) hydrological
model – University of
Washington and PCIC
(new results in progress)
• Results at Duncan –
increasing spring runoff,
decreasing summer
1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but
also on changing agricultural patterns?
• Less change than
most Columbia
Basin watersheds
but still increased
streamflow in
spring, decreased
in summer
1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but
also on changing agricultural patterns?
• WaSim (Water Simulation model) at
Donald: high resolution hydrological
model – in development at PCIC
1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but
also on changing agricultural patterns?
• Online
subscription
• Includes basic
climate change
scenarios
• Ted van der Gulik,
BC Ministry of Ag
and Lands
http://bc.waterbalance.ca/
1) Impact of climate change on streams especially, but
also on changing agricultural patterns?
• Frequency of occurrence of
high risk to water supply
depends on climate model
and emissions scenario –
Denise Neilsen, Ag Canada
• Individual policies assist
with meeting future
demand but only combined
policies meet full target –
Tina Neal, CAS & Stewart
Cohen, Env Canada
2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and
agricultural patterns that should be investigated and
what kind of time periods would that cover?
• Could be determined by vulnerability assessment
• Some suggestions from PCIC hydrologists
–
–
–
–
–
Low flows
High flows
Summer evapotranspiration / soil moisture
Seasonal / monthly vs. annual
Need to look at wet season compared with dry season
summer runoff compared to snowpack
3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream
flow from that of climate change? Do we monitor the water levels of the
source? In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed.
• Five mile creek: El Nino
earlier and weaker spring
peaks than La Nina
Annual and Decadal Variability are
superimposed on Climate Change Trends
Normals
Climate Change
Long Term Trends or
major shifts in
climate: (centuries)
Climate Variability
Short term : (years
to decadal) rises
and falls about the
trend line (ENSO)
Normals
Climate Oscillations
Multi-decadal
oscillations in
regional climate: (e.g.
PDO, NAO)
4) Glacier impacts
• 0-degree isotherm crude approximation of glaciated areas –
almost vanishes by 2050s
• See http://wc2n.unbc.ca/ for more glacier analysis
5) Extremes and local weather station information
Analysis of past and future extremes is just beginning.
Rainfall
• prec90p 90th percentile of rain day amounts (mm/day)
• 644R5d Greatest 5-day total rainfall
• 646SDII Simple Daily Intensity (rain per rain day)
• 641CDD Max no. consecutive dry days
• 691R90T % of total rainfall from events > long-term P90
• 692R90N No. of events > long-term 90th percentile of rain days
Temperature
• tmax90p Tmax 90th percentile
• tmin10p Tmin 10th percentile
• 125Fd Number of frost days (Tmin < 0 deg C)
• 144HWDI Heat Wave Duration
5) Extremes and local weather station information
Kootenay national park
Outline
1. About PCIC
2. Relevant reports
3. Recent questions / topics
4. Climate change & variability Kaslo and Regional District of
Central Kootenay Area D
Annual and Decadal Variability are
superimposed on Climate Change Trends
Normals
Climate Change
Long Term Trends or
major shifts in
climate: (centuries)
Climate Variability
Short term : (years
to decadal) rises
and falls about the
trend line (ENSO)
Normals
Climate Oscillations
Multi-decadal
oscillations in
regional climate: (e.g.
PDO, NAO)
Baseline Climatology
El Nino / La Nina
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Trend Analysis
-5 stations
Golden
Revelstoke
Kaslo
Cranbrook
Creston
Elevations:
Cranbrook 918 m
Golden 785 m
Creston 597 m
Kaslo 591 m
Revelstoke 443 m
- regional average
- computed linear trend and 95%
confidence intervals
- Mann Kendall covariance analysis
between stations:
mean annual temperature 0.86
total annual precipitation 0.46
total annual rain 0.40
snow 0.55
1913-2002 Temperature Record
Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)
1913-2002 Temperature Trends
and confidence intervals
Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)
50-yr Temperature Trends
Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)
30-yr Temperature Trends
Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)
1913-2002 Precipitation Record
Source: PCIC (Arelia Werner, Katrina Bennett, Trevor Murdock)
What are Global Climate Models?
• GCMs compute global
weather patterns several
times per day projected
over the next century
• GCMs are the
“…only credible tools
currently available for
simulating the physical
processes that
determine global
climate...” [IPCC]
Source: David Viner, UK Climate Impacts LINK Project
Adaptation required even with mitigation
Warming large compared to historical variability
BC Mean Annual Temperature Anomalies (from 1961-1990 baseline)
UVic ESCM % reduction from 2006 levels by 2050 compared to median of AR4 GCM
projections for A2, B1, and A1B (20 yr centered means)
4
3
Past
0%
2
25%
50%
75%
1
100%
Obs
0
A2
B1
A1B
-1
-2
1910
36
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
GCM

RCM
GCM

RCM
Climate change  impacts: planning & management
e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin
1961-1990
2020s
Climate change  impacts: planning & management
e.g. spruce suitability Columbia Basin
1961-1990
2080s
Initial priorities: Oct 2009
–
–
–
–
–
–
Water
Socio-economic
Transportation
Infrastructure and Utilities
Agriculture
Interface fire
– Explore a hydrological model that can be applied to
small water systems to understand impact and
adaptation possibilities
Recent questions
1) What is the current state of the art science in the impact of climate change on
streams especially, but also on changing agricultural patterns?
2) What are key indicators of changes to streams and agricultural patterns that
should be investigated and what kind of time periods would that cover?
3) How do we differentiate changes created by El Nino and La Nina on stream
flow from that of climate change? Do we monitor the water levels of the
source? (In Kaslo/RDCK Area D's instance the streams are lake fed, not
glacier fed.)
4) Glacier impacts
5) Extremes and local weather station information
Thank you
For more information
www.PacificClimate.org