Download Adaptation to Climate Change

Global Food Security: The Role of Research
Bob Watson
Chief Scientific Advisor, UK Defra
Strategic Director Tyndall Centre, UEA
Former Director of the IAASTD
Leeds University
22nd June, 2011
Current Situation and Future
Challenges for Agriculture
Current Situation
Current situation
• More than one billion people go to bed
hungry every day
• People have benefited unevenly
from yield increases across
regions, in part because of different
institutional and policy
environments – rural development,
market and trade policy failures
• Emphasis on increasing yields and
productivity has in some cases had
negative consequences on
environmental sustainability – soils,
water, biodiversity, climate change
….and failing to end hunger
Millions
Undernourishment data versus the MDG target
2007-08
Food price
spike
Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)
Agriculture and Environmental Degradation
Can GHG emissions be reduced
without impacting productivity
Sub-title here
Bullet text here
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How will the loss of genetic
diversity affect future
agriculture?
Can soil and water degradation
be reversed and productivity
enhanced?
Bullet text here
Can crop, animal and fish traits
be improved to address the
projected changes in climate –
what are the roles of traditional
breeding and modern forms of
biotechnology – genomics?
Current Challenges
 Access to current technologies
 Access to best seeds, agro-chemicals, and irrigation
 Knowledge about agro-ecological practices – INRM, IPM, and use of seasonal
climate projections to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability
 Reduce post-harvest loss and food waste
 Rural development
 Extension services
 Financing
 Roads – access to markets
 Trade reform
 Eliminate OECD production subsidies
 Eliminate tariff escalation on processed products
 Recognize the special needs of the least developed countries through nonreciprocal market access
Action on waste and demand
Waste in different countries
”
Current situation and Future
Challenges
Future Challenges
Future Challenges
 The demand for food will double within the next 25-50 years,
primarily in developing countries, and the type and nutritional
quality of food demanded will change
 We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops,
livestock, fisheries, forests, biomass, and commodities):
 to feed the world
 to enhance rural livelihoods
 to stimulate economic growth
 Meet food safety standards
environmentally and socially sustainable manner
The Context - Limitations

Less labor - diseases and rural to urban migration

Less water – competition from other sectors and climate
change in arid- and semi-arid areas

Yield increases are slowing dramatically

Less arable land – competition, e.g., bio-energy

Increasing land policy conflicts

Loss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystem

Increasing levels of pollution – ozone and acid deposition

A changing climate – temperature and precipitation
Cereal Yield Increases
Surface Temperature Projections
Precipitation Projections
Impact on Wheat Production
300
2000
2050 No CC
2050 with CC
Million Metric Tons
250
200
150
100
50
South Asia
Page 14
East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East
the Pacific
Central Asia
and the
and North
Caribbean
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Income and population growth drive prices
higher (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline
economy and demography)
Page 15
Climate change scenario effects differ
(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and
demography)
Minimum and
maximum effect
from four climate
scenarios
Page 16
Current situation and Future
Challenges
The Way Forward
Options to increase production

Today’s hunger problems can be addressed with appropriate use of
current technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g.,
no/low till, IPM, INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest losses

Small-scale farmers need access to the best seeds, financing and
access to markets

Advances in S&T are always a needed but cannot be fully utlilzed
without rural development, institutional and governance reform

Advanced biotechnologies (genomics) may be needed to address
future demands for increased productivity and emerging issues such
as climate change and new plant and animal pests – but the risks and
benefits must be fully understood
Producing more using existing
knowledge
Wheat
•
The yield gap
•
Best sustainability
practice
•
Invest in the skills base
Possible
Actual
– Revitalise extension
•
Invest in economic and
physical infrastructure
Build social capital for food production
Source: Bruinsma (2009)
Adaptation to Climate Change
• The response of agricultural, pastoral and forest systems to simultaneous
changes in atmospheric and climatic parameters:
• carbon dioxide -- are there saturation effects, if so at what concentration
level
• mean temperature and its variability (day-night and summer-winter ratios)
• mean precipitation and its variability
• other factors, including tropospheric ozone, UV-B and acid deposition
• The impact of changes in climate and atmospheric composition on:
• disturbance regimes, including fires and pest and disease outbreaks
• Adaptation options
•
•
•
•
•
planting times
crop selection
irrigation
fertilization
new cultivars -- the role of biotechnology, including transgenic crops –
temperature, drought, pest and salinity tolerance
A Robust Agricultural S&T Program
 to produce, by region, the diversified array of crops, livestock, fish,
forests, biomass (for energy) and commodities needed over the
next 50 years in an environmentally and socially sustainable
manner
 reduce post harvest losses
 increase productivity per ha through sustainable intensification
 address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved drought
tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etc
 improve the temperature tolerance of crops
 combat new or emerging agricultural pests or diseases
 address soil fertility and salinzation of soils
 reduce external and energy-intensive inputs
 improve the nutritional quality of food
 improve nutrient cycling
 improve food safety
Climate Change likely to increase
the spread of animal diseases
• Ectoparasite infections
• Arthropod vector-borne diseases
• Diseases caused by anaerobic sporeforming bacteria
• Avian diseases
• Liver flukes and parasites
Biotechnology
Role of Genomics and GM
• Genomics is the basis of improved crop traits – classical plant
breeding and GM
• Potential to improve productivity, drought, temperature and pest
tolerance and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency
• Insertion of genes is continuing to cause concern for some
consumers and governments even though GM plants undergo
extensive testing
• Health risks – little evidence, robust EU safety processes in place
• Environmental risks – need to understand gene transfer and manage
• Role of companies – some lack consumer trust
• Potential negative impact on poor farmers in developing countries –
reliance on large multi-nationals
Adaptation to Climate Change
Genes
© IRRI
Maize
C4
© IRRI
Rice
(C3 C4)
Climate Change, ©JES
C4 and C3 comparison for current CO2 conditions. WUE
(transpiration) is water-use efficiency, RUE is radiation-use
efficiency, PNUE is photosynthetic nitrogen-use effectiveness
WUE
RUE
PNUE
g DW/kg H2O
g DW/MJ
mg DW s-1/gN
Zea Maize
2.9 a
3.3 b
1.6 d
Oryza Sativa
1.6 a,c
2.2 b
0.6 d
C4/C3
1.8
1.5
2.7
Maize is C4 --- Rice is C3
Climate Change, ©JES
Current status of GM crops
• Two types of GM crop being grown on widespread basis:
insect-resistant varieties and herbicide-tolerant varieties
• In limited range of crop species: soya (64%),
maize(24%), cotton (43%) and oilseed rape (20%) - apart
from cotton, main outlet is for animal feed
• Other GM traits being developed (e.g. diseaseresistance, drought-tolerance, nitrogen efficiency)
• Main GM producers: USA, Canada, Brazil, Argentina,
India, China, Paraguay and South Africa. Some limited
cultivation of GM forage maize in a few EU countries
Basis for Policy
• Safety must be the top priority
• Evidence-based approach and case-by-case assessment
• Open to the potential benefits – therefore research, coupled
with open and transparent field trials, is needed to assess the
potential risks and benefits
• Support proportionate and enforceable GM labelling rules to
facilitate consumer choice
• Need to develop measures to manage the coexistence of GM
and non-GM crops to minimise unwanted GM cross-pollination
• Consumers will need to see real benefits before they are
accepted – at least in Europe
Adaptation to Climate Variability
 The agricultural and water resource sectors are
vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g., floods
and droughts associated with ENSO events
 Identify technologies, practices and policies that can
reduce the vulnerability of sectors to natural climate
variability and can increase resilience to long-term
climate change
 incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO events
into sector management decisions
 integrated multi-sector watershed management and
appropriate water pricing policies
 elimination of inappropriate agricultural subsidies
El-Nino
El-Nino conditions lead to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and
sub-tropics
The climate is projected to become
more El-Nino like
Impact of El-Nino in the Northern
Hemisphere Winter
Zimbabwe’s Rainfall Record: 1980-1993
Note the year to year variability and the long-term downward trend
Variability in Agricultural Production
Note the year to year variability and the long-term downward trend
Source: IRI (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
Experimental Climate Forecast Division
AKST Investments
Need to improve efficiency of investment
in rural development
China
India
Thailand
Ranking of Returns to Agricultural Production
Agriculture R&D
1
1
1
Irrigation
5
4
5
Education
2
3
3
Roads
3
2
4
Telecommunications
4
Electricity
6
8
2
Health
7
Soil and Water Conservation
6
Anti-Poverty Programs
5
Agriculture R&D
Irrigation
Education
Roads
Telecommunications
Electricity
Health
Soil and Water Conservation
Anti-Poverty Programs
Ranking of Returns in Poverty Reduction
2
2
2
6
7
5
1
3
4
3
1
3
5
4
8
1
6
5
7
4
Vietnam
Uganda
1
4
3
2
1
3
2
4
3
4
1
2
1
3
2
4
Under-investment in agriculture and
rural infrastructure
Agriculture and rural infrastructure’s share of public
expenditures have declined significantly
EIS recognised three big challenges for the
department
Support a Strong and
Sustainable Green Economy
• LWEC and the
BBSRC-led food
Interdisciplinary
working
and farming
initiative
Climate Change
Adaptation and
Mitigation
• John Beddington
initiative that brings
government
Sustainable
food
Production
Enhance
Environment and
Biodiversity
agencies, research
councils and private
sector together
Innovation
Understanding
and influencing
behaviours
In Summary: Options for Action

Embed economic, environmental and social sustainability into agricultural
policies, practices and technologies

Address today’s hunger problems with appropriate use of current
technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g., no/low till, IPM
and INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest losses

Advanced biotechnologies may be needed to address future demands for
increased productivity and emerging issues such as climate change and new
plant and animal pests – but the risks and benefits must be fully understood

Provide payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing ecosystem
services
In Summary: Options for Action

Reform international trade, e.g., eliminate OECD production subsidies,
eliminate tariff escalation on processed products, recognize the special
needs of the least developed countries through non-reciprocal market access

Increase public and private sector investment in research and development,
extension services, and weather and market information

Improve public-private-CSO involvement in AKST with accountability
for social and environmental outcomes

Build and reform AKST skill base (basic sciences, social, political and
legal knowledge) and innovation capacities of rural communities and
consumers
Conclusions
• Food availability needs double in the next 25-50 years to
alleviate hunger and poverty
• Global food security is achievable but business-as-usual
policies, practices and technologies will not work
• Climate change poses challenges to the agricultural sector –
reducing GHG emissions and adapting to climate change
• Innovation along the whole food chain, involving all relevant
stakeholders, is critical
• The farmer must be in the middle – especially the small-scale
farmer – participatory processes are critical
• Science and technology is critical – the risks and benefits of all
technologies must be evaluated